Real Estate Crash thread

[54-46]

No you are full of shit. Interest rates were not that low in March of 09, even on a 15 year, let alone a HELOC.

You very well might have invested well and are doing just fine now, but the story you told above is just interest blowhardism.

Whatevski. I got mine and laid out how to use the borrowed money in a relatively low risk way.

Lots of people do better or worse doing it differently.

Got fault with the Roth IRA plan for the kid? Have at it.

Lots of things people can do with $12,000. I’ve never been heli skiing, for example...

Got fault with taking out some equity to fund 529 Plan instead of paying off house or saving for retirement? Ok, that’s reasonable.

Look up housing prices in 94901 and tell me my house didn’t appreciate over 20 years.

Look up what Dodge and Cox Stock fund did in 2009.

Point being that when I took out the money, I wasn’t living beyond my means. Used it to make investments instead of buying some other shit.

[Benny Profane]

I’m not white

Whatever. You still got privileges in your life that 95% don't. I'll make a wild guess you're in your late 40s. You are then a rare bird to be doing so well, with children on top of that, going to school. Like I said, the average above age 60 401k is about 130,000. Average student debt is 28,000 after graduation, if they graduate. Total student debt is 1.5 trillion. More than half of 30 year olds and younger live with parents or relatives. I mean, fuck, many of them, even if educated, may never see positive net worth for their whole lives. Just different levels of debt servitude.

[54-46]

Whatever. You still got privileges in your life that 95% don't. I'll make a wild guess you're in your late 40s. You are then a rare bird to be doing so well, with children on top of that, going to school. Like I said, the average above age 60 401k is about 130,000. Average student debt is 28,000 after graduation, if they graduate. Total student debt is 1.5 trillion. More than half of 30 year olds and younger live with parents or relatives. I mean, fuck, many of them, even if educated, may never see positive net worth for their whole lives. Just different levels of debt servitude.

Yes; agreed, I’ve had advantages and opportunities and taken advantage of them, whether it be timing or pure luck.

Just don’t chalk it up to race.

Chalk it up to having two parents who grew up literally dirt poor who then supported me and valued education, hard work, living within means, and being financially savvy. Many people don’t have that either. Most of my friends growing up didn’t.

So, the thread is about real estate and the point was...

use the historically low rates and consider diversifying financial assets to reach the goals you identify for yourself...

(Be happy to consider paying higher taxes for a better health care system, universal higher education, more and lower cost housing, etc., but that’s a different thread...)

[smartyiak]

I heard an interview with Zillow CEO and they're EXTREMELY bullish on RE markets.

I am looking for a new house and was sorta surprised. I assumed that the RE market would crash b/c: well, people aren't working...or aren't working as much. If this keeps going on, lots of folks won't pay mortgage/rent and the gov. can't keep throwing $$$...but they also can't just open everything to get everyone back to work.

But according to Mr. Zillow, the housing market is strong and will only get stronger. It will change: cities will be emptier, while all you front rangers get to deal with more crowding from the work-at-home crowd....but it will remain strong and get even more seller friendly.

I guess I should buy now...or buy much later. Not sure.

[RootSkier]

Got on the calendar for a major remodel with a local design/build company...starting construction in "late winter or early spring 2022." Long time off but here's hoping lumber prices return to some level of sanity in the next year.

I have been watching the local market like a hawk and have seen not a single house in town that I would rather buy for the amount we will have into ours after the remodel, even if the remodel budget is the same as what we paid for the house 4 years ago. Crazy times.

[AdironRider]

Lumber prices will have corrected, but your builder is going to pocket the difference unless you go cost plus, in which case he'll make it up on labor. I'm extremely bullish on builders right now.

I think you are still making the right choice though. If I were in the market today, I'd be building a place myself vs buying an existing home. You'll come out ahead if you do even a modicum of the work yourself.

[schuss]

Housing supply is still lagging and the new WFH stuff is going to see a bunch of high income buyers in new places. Not to mention for those who kept their jobs, there's a nearly a year of vacation/eating out money in the bank. Should be interesting.

[Benny Profane]

I heard an interview with Zillow CEO and they're EXTREMELY bullish on RE markets.

I am looking for a new house and was sorta surprised. I assumed that the RE market would crash b/c: well, people aren't working...or aren't working as much. If this keeps going on, lots of folks won't pay mortgage/rent and the gov. can't keep throwing $$$...but they also can't just open everything to get everyone back to work.

But according to Mr. Zillow, the housing market is strong and will only get stronger. It will change: cities will be emptier, while all you front rangers get to deal with more crowding from the work-at-home crowd....but it will remain strong and get even more seller friendly.

I guess I should buy now...or buy much later. Not sure.

Oh, cmon, man. Zillow is a 21st century real estate agency. Have you ever met an RE salesperson who wasn't bullish on the market, in some way?

[AdironRider]

How zillow (and realtor.com, redfin, etc) hasn't put every RE agent out of business already really boggles my mind.

That right there would juice the market 5% by eliminating the bullshit cost they impose.

[Benny Profane]

It is one of the mysteries of the last decade, for sure.

[sirbumpsalot]

Oh, cmon, man. Zillow is a 21st century real estate agency. Have you ever met an RE salesperson who wasn't bullish on the market, in some way?

Says the guy who started this thread 14 years ago and has been bearish ever since....

[schuss]

Says the guy who started this thread 14 years ago and has been bearish ever since....

In his region (CT/NY) it hasn't been as great.

[RootSkier]

Lumber prices will have corrected, but your builder is going to pocket the difference unless you go cost plus, in which case he'll make it up on labor. I'm extremely bullish on builders right now.

I think you are still making the right choice though. If I were in the market today, I'd be building a place myself vs buying an existing home. You'll come out ahead if you do even a modicum of the work yourself.

Yeah, it's going to be a cost+ type of scenario but they claim to hit budget numbers +/- 3%. Also they have done multiple friends' houses and everyone has been totally stoked. We picked them because I used to be a builder and have stupid high standards and I know they can deliver on the house that I plan to die in.

[glademaster]

In his region (CT/NY) it hasn't been as great.

This. My parents have a nice house in NW NJ, and they're going to list it for within $20K of what they paid for it 16 or 17 years ago.

[Toadman]

Whatevski. I got mine and laid out how to use the borrowed money in a relatively low risk way.

Lots of people do better or worse doing it differently.

Got fault with the Roth IRA plan for the kid? Have at it.

Lots of things people can do with $12,000. I’ve never been heli skiing, for example...

Got fault with taking out some equity to fund 529 Plan instead of paying off house or saving for retirement? Ok, that’s reasonable.

Look up housing prices in 94901 and tell me my house didn’t appreciate over 20 years.

Look up what Dodge and Cox Stock fund did in 2009.

Point being that when I took out the money, I wasn’t living beyond my means. Used it to make investments instead of buying some other shit.

You are missing out on life dude! You haven't lived until you have owned and driven a $40k auto! And, I'm not going to go into the heli-ski thing, because it's not always blower pow and face shots.

But, good on you for being a super saver. I know a few that are like you and the Mrs. However, they do splurge from time to time. (First Class trips pre-COVID to Europe and New Zealand, Audi S6, 7 figure house a block from the SoCal beach.) But they also make WAY, WAAAAY more than $75k per year per couple.

But my question for you is, do you rent skis or buy and hold on to them for 10 years?

[Toadman]

This. My parents have a nice house in NW NJ, and they're going to list it for within $20K of what they paid for it 16 or 17 years ago.

And they probably pay $20k a year in property taxes to boot. That state along with CT screw home owners like few states on property taxes. And as near as I could tell, you don't get much for those tax dollars either.

[glademaster]

Yup, but on the flip side, I roll my eyes and pull out my tiny violin anytime anyone from anywhere except NJ or CT complain about what they pay in property taxes. IMO, property tax rates should look like they do in those two states nationwide.

[Skidog]

This. My parents have a nice house in NW NJ, and they're going to list it for within $20K of what they paid for it 16 or 17 years ago.

They missed somewhere..I've had 2 properties in nj in the last 30 years. 1 in morristown, 1 deville..both made me $100k over purchase, and neither were lived in more than 7 years.

My current property in goshen is worth $100k over what I paid just 1.5 years ago, and that's without anyone seeing the updates we did (gutted), just comp/local market.

Maybe it's timing, maybe location, but the 3 properties I've owned in the ny/nj area have all paid in spades.


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[Name Redacted]

Some people just want to live places with high taxes, shitty home appreciation, shitty winters, shitty skiing, lots of people, and a shitton of other downsides then act like the whole world is exactly as they see it every day. Why can’t you guys just accept that?

[El Chupacabra]

Some people just want to live places with high taxes, shitty home appreciation, shitty winters, shitty skiing, lots of people, and a shitton of other downsides then act like the whole world is exactly as they see it every day. Why can’t you guys just accept that?

Connecticut?

[Name Redacted]

Connecticut?

I mean, that does check all the boxes...

[ötzi]

My daughter and her boyfiriend moved to Stamford a couple meonths go to be near his new job. My brother, totally serious, says, "Connecticut? Aren't they a little young for that?"

[Benny Profane]

In his region (CT/NY) it hasn't been as great.

Yup.

[Benny Profane]

And they probably pay $20k a year in property taxes to boot. That state along with CT screw home owners like few states on property taxes. And as near as I could tell, you don't get much for those tax dollars either.

Our kids will hire your kids, and order lattes from the rest.

[Benny Profane]

Some people just want to live places with high taxes, shitty home appreciation, shitty winters, shitty skiing, lots of people, and a shitton of other downsides then act like the whole world is exactly as they see it every day. Why can’t you guys just accept that?

What? Are you well? What are you talking about?