Real Estate Crash thread

[schuss]

not to worry, be down significantly a year from now.

I was looking at Boston real estate early this year as i'm looking to move there, it's quite a shock when your reference is texas housing; but a year from now; should look pretty good; seeing prices drop 25% in some areas should not be unheard of.

Boston's major industries are tech, biomedical and FinServ/insurance. None will be seriously impacted and prices will stay high IMO

[Cono Este]

I’m looking and Inventory is low. Sellers don’t want to list with all the social distancing etc.

I’m thinking of lowballing some houses that are empty, but fixed up and we’re intended to flip.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Benny Profane]

Boston's major industries are tech, biomedical and FinServ/insurance. None will be seriously impacted and prices will stay high IMO

Yeah, but, Fenway will be closed, no Patriots, no Bruins, no Celtics, the 100 plus universities and colleges will not be back to "normal" soon, including the massive multiplier effect from that, no concerts, no restaraunts, no shopping....

[Kevo]

Kinda thinking about timing the market and selling my house now. What are the collectives thoughts?

I own a house worth mid $600s in a desirable area of the CO front range. Houses in my neighborhood are still selling above asking price in less than two days.

My company is kicking around the idea of allowing people in positions like mine to work remote permanently.

There are nice single family houses in my favorite mountain town for $500k to $900k.

I'm thinking about selling my house, moving to said mountain town and renting for the summer while looking at properties and trying to find something that I like.

If I sold now I'd be able to comfortably put down $200k to $300k on my next house and still have more than a years living expenses saved up in cash.

Why on earth would I stay in the CO front range?

[smmokan]

You asked the same question five years ago (and every year since, it seems), yet you're still here. There must be a reason keeping you from moving, whether it's subconscious or not.

[Mazderati]

Yeah, but, Fenway will be closed, no Patriots, no Bruins, no Celtics, the 100 plus universities and colleges will not be back to "normal" soon, including the massive multiplier effect from that, no concerts, no restaraunts, no shopping....

Longer-term distance learning could make a dent. Something like 50 higher ed institutions in the area with students making up 20-25% of the city population during the school year. That's a ton of lost revenue for schools in the form of housing, meals, and parking and a ton of lost revenue for the area in unsigned off-campus apartment leases, restaurants and bars, and other general costs of living. The bigger schools also own a bunch of real estate throughout the city. Maybe that magnifies their losses in the short term but, even if it does, I doubt that lasts long for exactly the reasons schuss cited.

[fastfred]

Kinda thinking about timing the market and selling my house now. What are the collectives thoughts?

I own a house worth mid $600s in a desirable area of the CO front range. Houses in my neighborhood are still selling above asking price in less than two days.

My company is kicking around the idea of allowing people in positions like mine to work remote permanently.

There are nice single family houses in my favorite mountain town for $500k to $900k.

I'm thinking about selling my house, moving to said mountain town and renting for the summer while looking at properties and trying to find something that I like.

If I sold now I'd be able to comfortably put down $200k to $300k on my next house and still have more than a years living expenses saved up in cash.

Why on earth would I stay in the CO front range?

sounds like a dream you should do it cause dreams come true
I wouldn't sell, keep your house
go move to your boss mountain town rent realize that it sucks donkey balls after one year and move back to the front range
seriously
I want to leave so bad and move somewhere else, well this has been going on for almost 25 years now, but
I'd be stupid to sell my house and move
cause I know I'd regret it six months later and want to move back
my house is more than double what I paid for it, it'd be dumb to cash out all that equity now it's only going to keep going up

[wooley12]

I donno. Rent for a year sounds like a plan. What I did.

[SkiBall]

Question for the RE mags: If one had approx 150 acres in deserty land east of Baker, OR, where would be the best place to go to as far as selling? Borders BLM, but trying to see if some kind of sale or swap with them my be more hassle than its worth. My simple brain only comes up with some RE person in Baker, but maybe something I am overlooking. Want to sell and roll into property I would actually use.

[wolfelot]

How many Fraser, CO area condos with 2-3 on the lower end of the market are going to come onto the market with some level of stress and the owners wanting out?

For example, a Front Range household with two good jobs, a mortgage in town, kids, and a condo in WP/Fraser/Granby that needed to get rented on AirBND at least 1/4-1/3 of the time to really work without sweating it. That scenario was working the past few years for them.

However, now they are potentially a household with that condo not being rented at all for at least the next few months and then very slow rentals for quite awhile after that, and at least one of those good jobs is now totally gone or under major layoff threat.

Is this general scenario at all likely to play out and will prices go down and inventory up in the below $450k market.

Asking my own question again from about a month ago with a few light edits. I Didn’t get any comments. Any thoughts?

[RootSkier]

Question for the RE mags: If one had approx 150 acres in deserty land east of Baker, OR, where would be the best place to go to as far as selling? Borders BLM, but trying to see if some kind of sale or swap with them my be more hassle than its worth. My simple brain only comes up with some RE person in Baker, but maybe something I am overlooking. Want to sell and roll into property I would actually use.

Talking to a local realtor about what it's worth /might actually sell for would be a good step and won't cost anything.

Thinking you are going to swap with the federal government...who are you, Tim Blixseth, Jr.?

[fastfred]

Deals will come but RE markets take time (years) to turn and change materially. Last cycle was around 4-6 years peak to trough. Denver peaked in 2019 from what I've seen, so look for Fraser real estate alchemists to start puking up assets through fall and into 2023-2025. It will take time, particularly with the national attitude of "excess leverage is nobody's fault."

Also, people that think RE nationally or regionally will hold up in the coming years are fucking retarded.

dude
are you smoking what I'm smoking? it aint' going anywhere
mtn town real estate will be just fine
plenty of people ready to buy from all those people who bought and couldn't afford
lots of holes ready to go in the ground as soon as the snow starts melting in the next couple weeks

[SkiBall]

Talking to a local realtor about what it's worth /might actually sell for would be a good step and won't cost anything.

Thinking you are going to swap with the federal government...who are you, Tim Blixseth, Jr.?

There is some BLM border land in the area I want that I would trade 150 for 1. Heard it might be a long shot option, but doubtful.
Might be a long sale to find the right buyer, but overall a low cost so who knows. There is a neighbor rancher that would be the best bet but supposedly he is kind of a dick.

Or are you saying turn it into an oasis for the rich and famous? I hadn't considered it. Maybe a mini-Cochella?

[m2711c]

do you know any rich and famous folks?

[The Reverend Floater]

There is some BLM border land in the area I want that I would trade 150 for 1. Heard it might be a long shot option, but doubtful.
Might be a long sale to find the right buyer, but overall a low cost so who knows. There is a neighbor rancher that would be the best bet but supposedly he is kind of a dick.

Or are you saying turn it into an oasis for the rich and famous? I hadn't considered it. Maybe a mini-Cochella?

Where abouts, exactly? Vale? Water on the property?

[iceman]

Longer-term distance learning could make a dent. Something like 50 higher ed institutions in the area with students making up 20-25% of the city population during the school year. That's a ton of lost revenue for schools in the form of housing, meals, and parking and a ton of lost revenue for the area in unsigned off-campus apartment leases, restaurants and bars, and other general costs of living. The bigger schools also own a bunch of real estate throughout the city. Maybe that magnifies their losses in the short term but, even if it does, I doubt that lasts long for exactly the reasons schuss cited.

If all the dorms got turned into apartments I bet there'd be no problem renting them out.

[Benny Profane]

dude
are you smoking what I'm smoking? it aint' going anywhere
mtn town real estate will be just fine
plenty of people ready to buy from all those people who bought and couldn't afford
lots of holes ready to go in the ground as soon as the snow starts melting in the next couple weeks

Ain't going to be fine if the lifts don't turn and the taps are dry.

[SkiBall]

do you know any rich and famous folks?

I know a ton of them. They just don’t know me.

Where abouts, exactly? Vale? Water on the property?

86 between Baker and Keating. Creek runs through it but don’t think there is water rights. Been in the fam forever so that part seemed strange. Need to verify.

[Toadman]

Kinda thinking about timing the market and selling my house now. What are the collectives thoughts?

I own a house worth mid $600s in a desirable area of the CO front range. Houses in my neighborhood are still selling above asking price in less than two days.

My company is kicking around the idea of allowing people in positions like mine to work remote permanently.

There are nice single family houses in my favorite mountain town for $500k to $900k.

I'm thinking about selling my house, moving to said mountain town and renting for the summer while looking at properties and trying to find something that I like.

If I sold now I'd be able to comfortably put down $200k to $300k on my next house and still have more than a years living expenses saved up in cash.

Why on earth would I stay in the CO front range?

If you don't do it this year, you will be a year older when you do.

[SkiBall]

Later has a habit of becoming never.

[goldenboy]

This was in response to my posting about how we have no meaningful institutional guidance for brokers and agents. We never got institutional leadership at an industry level, did you? Total shitshow over here. Towns resorted to making their own rules and restrictions.

Not really, sounds pretty similar to the program here.

[Toadman]

Local news talking about how Bend had 393 construction/building permits issued for month of March, (Avg. is 400/month) and how most home and commercial construction companies are still operating normally through April.

It is crazy to see all the construction that is going as if the economy were at 100%.

[4matic]

Local news talking about how Bend had 393 construction/building permits issued for month of March, (Avg. is 400/month) and how most home and commercial construction companies are still operating normally through April.

It is crazy to see all the construction that is going as if the economy were at 100%.

It's difficult to get building permits and typically if they have the means to build they build. Can bankrupt later..

[fastfred]

I got tons of work
getting a permit is a hassle since gov't workers are taking full advantage of full pay, working from home or barely working but getting paid

[glademaster]

Imagine that, government offices following operations guidelines issued by local public health officials, the governor, and the CDC. How dare they try to avoid killing people.