Real Estate Crash thread

[Ted Striker]

oh and inflation
just because it doesn't meet some scholar economics book writing proffessors standards to help define inflation
it's been going on hard for two plus years now, slowly and surely, making some people bank and totally ass fucking other people
no one wants to admit it

The "scholar economics book writing professors" agree with you. Interest rates and inflation have a generally inverse relationship. If you give people cheap money, they buy stuff. When the supply of that stuff is limited, competition pushes the prices up.

In the case of the American RE market that competition is intensified by demographics. There are more people of first time home buying age now than there were ten or fifteen years ago, and as you know, build starts were decimated by the financial meltdown.

[rideit]

Haha, just for fun, I looked the Zillow estimate for our house. They are showing a picture from 2012, before we bought it in '13. We completely gutted it, renovated it, roofed it, lanscaped it, you name it. They also show less than 1/2 of our square footage, ours is 2200, four bed, two complete kitchens, etc.
Our house is by far the nicest on the block. It was, honestly, the biggest piece of shit skid house in JH.
I find this estimate hilarious, because two doors down, on either side of us, piece of shit houses sold (before pandemic!) For over 1.2m.
Shit cracks me up! (Look at the rental estimate)
(We paid $329 in ‘13)

https://www.zillow.com/homes/95-Stor...94365532_zpid/

[rideit]

When we left Baltimore in '79 or so, they were selling decrepit houses on the waterfont for a Dollar.
No lie, it was a 'gentrification' program long before that term came into existence.

[dannynoonan]

Haha, just for fun, I looked the Zillow estimate for our house. They are showing a picture from 2012, before we bought it in '13. We completely gutted it, renovated it, roofed it, lanscaped it, you name it. They also show less than 1/2 of our square footage, ours is 2200, four bed, two complete kitchens, etc.
Our house is by far the nicest on the block. It was, honestly, the biggest piece of shit skid house in JH.
I find this estimate hilarious, because two doors down, on either side of us, piece of shit houses sold (before pandemic!) For over 1.2m.
Shit cracks me up! (Look at the rental estimate)
(We paid $329 in ‘13)

https://www.zillow.com/homes/95-Stor...94365532_zpid/

There are some parts of the Zestimate (tm) you aren't factoring in here, such as, qty of busted-ass hoopties parked on blocks in the drive. Seems like a fair valuation to me, I'll give you 900 and you throw in a new water heater, eh?

[neufox47]

In other news, my neighbor just listed for $25k more than we bought our place for. We went into contract in November and closed in February. Their house is 2/3rds the size of ours (but same number of bedrooms one less bath, ours is a 3/3.5 with two “offices”). Ours needs a new roof theirs needs a new kitchen. I’ll be shocked if they get it but good luck eh. If there house is worth that we ought to have made at least $150k in 2 months.


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Well, it just went pending...

[glademaster]

I think the covid effect pendulum is gonna swing back hard pretty soon. A lot of the people who fled the cities are gonna wake up one day, look at each other, and say "wtf are we doing here?" and go back where they came from. Not all of them by any means, but a significant enough amount of them to take the air out of the market.

just my guess

A problem with this idea is that it hinges on the people that left cities having to sell their properties to move back. Plenty of people who fled cities and gobbled up rural real estate didn't sell their places back in the city, and I don't think they're going to sell the place they bought in the mountains when it comes time to move back.

This is the final step toward creating a permanent caste system in this country, there are going to be property owners and then a whole hell of a lot of people who will never be able to even contemplate the idea of purchasing property.

It's high time we dust off the guillotine, if you ask me.

[NWFlow]

This is the final step toward creating a permanent caste system in this country, there are going to be property owners and then a whole hell of a lot of people who will never be able to even contemplate the idea of purchasing property.

Unfortunately, i understand that more or less to have always been the case.

[Benny Profane]

My guess is he will kick out the small Mom and Pop shops and bring in Gucci, Prada and Bogner. Does Crested Butte have a Four Seasons? That's probably on the drawing board too. On the plus side property values will go up along with property taxes, and the "middle class" homeowner will be forced to sell because they can't afford to stay. From what I've read on this thread that's a good thing!

There's middle class homeowners in CB? Sounds like the mega rich preying on the rich.

[Benny Profane]

Maybe a weight bench and barbell with cinder blocks in the front yard, too.

Gotta put a nice comfy indoor couch on the porch to complete the look.

[Benny Profane]

When we left Baltimore in '79 or so, they were selling decrepit houses on the waterfont for a Dollar.
No lie, it was a 'gentrification' program long before that term came into existence.

What do you think of this 4 bds • 4 ba • 3,732 sqft home I found on Zillow? https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...edium=referral

[ötzi]

What do you think of this 4 bds • 4 ba • 3,732 sqft home I found on Zillow? https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...edium=referral

It's nice there, safest part of the city, on the water, cool industrial harbor views out towards Domino Sugar and Fells Point. The water taxi goes close by, the promenade is really nice and goes along the water all the way to Canton, like maybe 3 miles? Guessing but it's pretty long. All the yuppie stuff you could want around there, coffee shops, weed store, Whole Foods nearby, but it's low-key and spread out.

There's something going on with those docks, there wasn't a single boat there last year and none so far this year. Those places are nice but they're tall and narrow, lots of stairs. The Italian deli/takeout right there, Di Pasquale's, kicks ass. The Greek place next door to it, Tabrizi, is also really good. We rented an apartment almost next door when we sold our house last year because my wife's business is in Baltimore so I'm around there quite a bit. That part of the city definitely has energy and is coming up.

[rideit]

There are some parts of the Zestimate (tm) you aren't factoring in here, such as, qty of busted-ass hoopties parked on blocks in the drive. Seems like a fair valuation to me, I'll give you 900 and you throw in a new water heater, eh?

They left us two sweet parting gifts, a broken down pontiac, and a rotten turducken in a broken fridge that had been duct taped shut. Oh, and a banner that said "Welcome Panic Fans!" From a liquor store or something.

[MontuckyFried]

I think it's been basically market adrenaline. Almost hysteria. People were fleeing and looking for places and willing/able to pay top dollar is one part of it, the other part of it is people seeing that was happening and buying as an investment, thinking that people will keep coming and prices will keep going up so why not buy now and make some money later when they sell?

Reduce the demand from people coming, reverse it a bit with some folks leaving, and the investment idea suddenly doesn't look as good. So then the investors start bailing to try to get out while they're still ahead, and the souffle falls.

Hypothetically.

This is the best take I've heard on it thus far. Well put.

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osf...ules-1.5979558

shit is crazy up here as well so the banks are gona change the rules

[old_newguy]

I, as I’m sure others are as well, am on a few different forums. The general take continues to be that the market is crazy and irrational right now.

However there continue to be a few naysayers that point to millennials entering the first time home buyers market, institutional buyers, lack of inventory (new and old) and work from home as drivers that aren’t going away.

But almost no one is saying what a good time to buy, or this market is going to keep going up and up. I continue to see real estate agents interviewed who are actively discouraging people from getting into this market unless they can absorb the risk, can offer cash and have a long time horizon.

Does anyone know of anyone credible talking about how this is the new normal and you better get on the train now if you can?

[liv2ski]

Does anyone know of anyone credible talking about how this is the new normal and you better get on the train now if you can?

The local paper has all the dirt pimps saying Buy, Buy, but are they creditable, fuck no. If your buying today you better have at least a 10 year ownership horizon or you may sell a bit underwater. Take my comment as a green light to buy, as my forecasting skilz suck.

[Danno]

Does anyone know of anyone credible talking about how this is the new normal and you better get on the train now if you can?

Well, those are two separate things, whether this is the new normal and whether you better get on the train now if you can.

It all feels so unsustainable, but it also feels to me like the new normal. And yes, of course, my feelings are deep indicators of market analysis.

But even if I don't think a crash is coming, that doesn't mean that you better jump now before you lose your chance. There may be much better places to put your money.

[Ted Striker]

However there continue to be a few naysayers that point to millennials entering the first time home buyers market, institutional buyers, lack of inventory (new and old) and work from home as drivers that aren’t going away.

lol at "naysayers"

The fundamentals are the fundamentals. Everything else is wishful thinking.

[liv2ski]

I don't understand the sustainability of everything. Stock market, real estate, rent, food, you name it, the prices are jumping big time everywhere I look. I sure hope there is a big correction, but again, what will cause it if Covid didn't do shit to slow down prices?

[skaredshtles]

I don't understand the sustainability of everything. Stock market, real estate, rent, food, you name it, the prices are jumping big time everywhere I look. I sure hope there is a big correction, but again, what will cause it if Covid didn't do shit to slow down prices?

Sharp increase in interest rates?

[Danno]

I don't understand the sustainability of everything. Stock market, real estate, rent, food, you name it, the prices are jumping big time everywhere I look. I sure hope there is a big correction, but again, what will cause it if Covid didn't do shit to slow down prices?

Yep.

Sharp increase in interest rates?

Also yep. But the fed seems hell bent on keeping them low, so...

[XXX-er]

The last house i sold prices has marched steadily up of 15 yrs, i asked my (a very good one actulay) dirt pimp what she thot she said " we all at the office think the prices are crazy, you should sell " it sold very quick and a month later the bottom drops out of the market but that was dumb luck cuz really dirt pimps don't know whats gona happen either

they know they want to sell RE (big surprise) they like to see RE move but I've heard it said they don't really like crazy either cuz in multiple bid situ's only 1 agent is winning

The prices look so stupid some people are selling now to rent making the bet they can catch it on the downside

[dunfree]

I don't understand the sustainability of everything. Stock market, real estate, rent, food, you name it, the prices are jumping big time everywhere I look. I sure hope there is a big correction, but again, what will cause it if Covid didn't do shit to slow down prices?

I thought rents in some of the big citys like San Francisco and NYC were cratering? It seems pretty clear if rents are falling, rental vacancies are up, but home purchases are soaring maybe there’s a connection? Like here
https://www.twincities.com/2021/02/0...ring-pandemic/

it’s hard wading through the industry of shit “citys are dieing cuz takes though, and that’s kinda the lazyass press.

[old_newguy]

lol at "naysayers"

The fundamentals are the fundamentals. Everything else is wishful thinking.

What are the fundamentals though. Lots of speculation that income to home prices are out of whack, but I haven’t seen anyone present data that home buyers income is out of whack with home prices yet.

[Danno]

What are the fundamentals though. Lots of speculation that income to home prices are out of whack, but I haven’t seen anyone present data that home buyers income is out of whack with home prices yet.

yeah, there's the rub, right?