Real Estate Crash thread

[teleee]

We are seriously pondering purchasing a small place in the lower Keys of Florida but global warming is scaring the shit out of me, I guess the question is, can I get 30 years out of it before its under water?

[abraham]

A couple years ago I met a guy studying climate change who bought a waterfront property in the San Juans. He said it would be his kid's problem.

[skaredshtles]

We are seriously pondering purchasing a small place in the lower Keys of Florida but global warming is scaring the shit out of me, I guess the question is, can I get 30 years out of it before its under water?

...

[dan_pdx]

We are seriously pondering purchasing a small place in the lower Keys of Florida but global warming is scaring the shit out of me, I guess the question is, can I get 30 years out of it before its under water?

Won't a hurricane or tropical storm take it apart way sooner than that? Why not just use a STR for the times you want to be down there?

[Ted Striker]

Good to know! I see a house hit Redfin today that looks like it's on the edge of the flood zone (1206 Grant St.)...gonna be a hard sell.

And that area south of Lakeway is still "pre-gentrification".

[teleee]

Won't a hurricane or tropical storm take it apart way sooner than that? Why not just use a STR for the times you want to be down there?

Hurricanes are a given, the place I am looking at has been there for over 40 years and has taken the full force of several hurricanes right on the chin and has kept right on ticking. I will be spending WAY to much time down there (if all goes according to plan) for STR's to be a viable option. I am more concerned about the whole damn chain disappearing under water

[neufox47]

Won't a hurricane or tropical storm take it apart way sooner than that? Why not just use a STR for the times you want to be down there?

Homes mostly survive unless it’s a really big one.

Telee, perspective of someone who works in insurance (but not homeowners), look at the details of the lot and home. Keys generally have no waves until a storm comes, what is your exposure to waves when they do come? How many feet above sea level are you, same question for roads, are any going to be close to underwater in 1-2’ of rise. See the shit show in the outer banks of the Carolinas where they have major roads that are very difficult to maintain and pushing costs to homeowners. Get the house on stilts that will be beach front when the sea goes up 3’.

[John_B]

And that area south of Lakeway is still "pre-gentrification".

I have not so fond memories of wandering through that neighborhood looking for my girlfriend's roomie's lost cat named Cooter. Good lord I got some deservedly strange looks.

Good luck in the hunt dan

[liv2ski]

Hurricanes are a given, the place I am looking at has been there for over 40 years and has taken the full force of several hurricanes right on the chin and has kept right on ticking. I am more concerned about the whole damn chain disappearing under water

Valid concerns telee. We live 30 feet above sea level and I get worried. If your 50 feet above sea level, I could see you pulling the trigger, but if it is 10 feet above sea level, one good storm surge and you are gone and maybe wiped from the face of the Earth.

[Hopeless Sinner]

We are seriously pondering purchasing a small place in the lower Keys of Florida but global warming is scaring the shit out of me, I guess the question is, can I get 30 years out of it before its under water?

It sure seems like it could be a constant source of stress. I have good friends there, but they own 5 or 6 houses in the US so they're not tied to dealing w any pain like rebuilding, or having no place to live.

[Danno]

Valid concerns telee. We live 30 feet above sea level and I get worried. If your 50 feet above sea level, I could see you pulling the trigger, but if it is 10 feet above sea level, one good storm surge and you are gone and maybe wiped from the face of the Earth.

there ain't much in the keys that is 50 feet above sea level.

[skaredshtles]

there ain't much in the keys that is 50 feet above sea level.

Fun fact: there's NO actual land that high in the Keys.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solare...y%2C%20Florida.

[Ted Striker]

A couple years ago I met a guy studying climate change who bought a waterfront property in the San Juans. He said it would be his kid's problem.

In the future, Orcas will be two islands.

[AK47bp]

In the future, Orcas will be two islands.

The name will finally make sense.


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[Ted Striker]

cat named Cooter

I like that woman's style.

That area used to be a lot sketchier bitd. The city bought and demolished the Aloha, and Mac's Motel has been out of business for at least 5 years now, so the crackhead/tweeker/hooker contingent has moved on.

[Timberridge]

Fun fact: there's NO actual land that high in the Keys.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solare...y%2C%20Florida.

Is there land that high in all of FL? Miami needs pumps to keep the seawater from flooding it on the reg.

This is a good place to start visualizing where things are headed if sea level rises...
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/da...ise-map-viewer

[ColMan]

Fack, house just sold in JH for 65 Million. Anonomous midwesterners with coin. 9,000 sq ft, you do the math!

Assuming 2.8% on each side of that deal, the realtors alone each brought in $1.8M before whatever cut the company/managing broker takes. Nice payday for one transaction.

[teleee]

there ain't much in the keys that is 50 feet above sea level.

Yea, I think you would be hard pressed finding anything close to that in the Keys. The highest spot I know of is the old garbage dump on Stock Island. Couple things this would not be a primary residence, in fact if it got wiped with no insurance compensation it would sting but not be financially incapacitating. Its not right on the water and is pretty well protected from hurricanes, like i said its almost 40 years old and has been battle tested pretty hard from some of the countries biggest and best. It really just needs to hold up for 20-30 years, then I could care less...

[rideit]

Assuming 2.8% on each side of that deal, the realtors alone each brought in $1.8M before whatever cut the company/managing broker takes. Nice payday for one transaction.

Pretty sure these Jumbo transactions operate on lower percentages, but I don’t know for sure. Either way, Mack is sitting pretty.

[Toadman]

Yea, I think you would be hard pressed finding anything close to that in the Keys. The highest spot I know of is the old garbage dump on Stock Island. Couple things this would not be a primary residence, in fact if it got wiped with no insurance compensation it would sting but not be financially incapacitating. Its not right on the water and is pretty well protected from hurricanes, like i said its almost 40 years old and has been battle tested pretty hard from some of the countries biggest and best. It really just needs to hold up for 20-30 years, then I could care less...

Well, if the sea level rises so fast that you have water coming into the house every high tide, you might want to consider having the house lifted off the foundation and put on stilts or pontoons.

[teleee]

Well, if the sea level rises so fast that you have water coming into the house every high tide, you might want to consider having the house lifted off the foundation and put on stilts or pontoons.

Already on stilts my man


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[BCMtnHound]

Assuming 2.8% on each side of that deal, the realtors alone each brought in $1.8M before whatever cut the company/managing broker takes. Nice payday for one transaction.

And yet the realtor still probably can't afford a SFH in JH

[Harry]

We are seriously pondering purchasing a small place in the lower Keys of Florida but global warming is scaring the shit out of me, I guess the question is, can I get 30 years out of it before its under water?

DO IT !




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[Hopeless Sinner]

Already on stilts my man


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Last time my buddies got hit it was basically like losing the contents of his garage and laundry room since it's on stilts. He found his boat in the street a few blocks over.

[ötzi]

How about stilts AND pontoons? Strap some pontoons under the house, if the water overtops the stilts the house floats off. Probably important to have a good anchor out though I guess.

Ideas like this is why you guys pay me the big bucks.