Real Estate Crash thread

[Toadman]

I gotta give Benny credit, 10 years ago he compared us to Japan, and at least in terms of housing, he was spot on.

Within a decade we will see mortgage rates in the 1's, if not below. My house will be worth at least a mill at that point.

Currently you can get a mortgage in Japan for .53%.

Damn, that's incredible. But it does seem like interest rates have no room to go up with the tens of trillions in debt the USA has no hope of ever paying back, let alone slowing the increasing national debt.

[Mazderati]

I talked to my astrophysicist turned real estate data scientist college roommate today. He works for a multibillion dollar tech company running a team that forecasts real estate trends. He/ his company are predicting major fallout in 2022 with a SHTF scenario in 2024. He says it largely depends on what legislation passes between now and then for how far the can gets kicked down the road, but that low rates are going to drive the bubble up until foreclosures hit the market en masse to increase supply.

Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?

[Kevo]

Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?

College roommate is focused entirely on residential. Yes, legislation regarding forbearance programs and eviction moratoriums.

[mcsquared]

Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?

Probably monetary policy as well. Residential real estate is more or less debt fueled consumption rather than production. While the interest rates are low the bubble will keep inflating until the drag created by the debt exceeds any productivity gains realized as part of the transaction.

[NWFlow]

Real estate prices will not drop significantly, and are going to continue this frenzied upward trend. The people driving this are making money hand over fist. We are witnessing the rapid creation of a permanent underclass in this country who will never have any hope of owning any kind of real property. It makes me sick.

I hate to agree, but this is my take as well, and I too am physically ill over it.

[char_]

I hate to agree, but this is my take as well, and I too am physically ill over it.

I too am really concerned about this. Also from an employment standpoint.

I just can't figure out if it means that I should get in now so I can own something or wait so I can get it cheap. My time horizon is only like 4 years before needing to sell and move again so normally I would just rent and stockpile cash.

[AdironRider]

I'd plan on renting. Four year turnaround is tough to get back your costs in any market.

That being said, this isn't tulip bulbs, people gotta live somewhere and we aren't exactly losing overall population numbers. Depends on your local market of course. Places like Utica NY or the like are definitely declining while the Denver metro continues to grow, etc.

I continue to believe though that all these WFH FOREVER! types, and their resulting effects on specific markets, are thinking extremely short term. Take Stripe for example. They are offering 20k to work from home but then immediately reducing your salary 20%. Talk about a deflationary event if there is a mass reduction in overall compensation for white collars like that. People will be back in the office within an hour of that phone call though so that will nip that trend in the butt right quick.

[Dantheman]

People will be back in the office within an hour of that phone call though so that will nip that trend in the butt right quick.

Lots of French benefits at the office, too.

[liv2ski]

With a 4 year horizon I would not be motivated to pay the current prices. If you were going to own for 10+ years, then I would say it doesn't matter from my experience in CA

[glademaster]

If you want to live in an area where there are jobs that pay above poverty wages you gotta pay up, buttercup.

Fixed it for you, you fucking asshole.

In my line of work, I can find the exact same job in two different geographic areas with a $70K+ per year difference in income. Now sure, housing is cheap where wages are low, but try buying a "cheap" house in the US in 2020 when you're grossing $35-40k a year. This is the fatal flaw with your point: for a lot of jobs, wages don't cover the cost of living ANYWHERE, but wages scale more closely with cost of living in expensive/desirable areas than less desirable ones.

[liv2ski]

GM, if a person makes $40k a year they better live where shit is dirt cheap to be able to buy a home. My daughter had her wages cut in half due to this Covid shit. Her employer went under and she had to start from the bottom again.
Unless you are making $80k+ forget about buying most anywhere these days.

[sirbumpsalot]

Fixed it for you, you fucking asshole.

In my line of work, I can find the exact same job in two different geographic areas with a $70K+ per year difference in income. Now sure, housing is cheap where wages are low, but try buying a "cheap" house in the US in 2020 when you're grossing $35-40k a year. This is the fatal flaw with your point: for a lot of jobs, wages don't cover the cost of living ANYWHERE, but wages scale more closely with cost of living in expensive/desirable areas than less desirable ones.

Owning a home isn't all its cracked up to be. Trust me...keep renting....in the meantime keep shouting at the wind.

[Bobcat Sig]

That's insane. Especially considering the usual wages around there. Looks like the place continues it's growing percentage of trustfunders and other rich mofos. Many of whom try and act like they're dirtbags. Lol. Young bearded/mustachio'd dudes drinking PBR be like "Pay no attention to my decked out Sprinter 4x4 out back. You didn't see that. The struggle is real, ya know."

Owning a home isn't all its cracked up to be. Trust me...keep renting....in the meantime keep shouting at the wind.

No kidding. Bring money.... FML

[Benny Profane]

House in town went on market in 2011 for $8.4 million. Sold this month for $3.6. That's gonna work the pocket book.

Irrational exuberance

[Benny Profane]

Pro tip: Upstate NY you can still find very affordable housing. You want to live in an area where everyone else wants to live you gotta pay up, buttercup.

Old farmhouses with the same property taxes as Westchester.

[Toadman]

Home ownership is no longer the American dream that it once was.

[skaredshtles]

Owning a home isn't all its cracked up to be. Trust me...keep renting....in the meantime keep shouting at the wind.

This. In fact, it sucks. It's a giant goddam boat anchor.

[glademaster]

Owning a home isn't all its cracked up to be. Trust me...keep renting....in the meantime keep shouting at the wind.

I think I mentioned it in another thread, but I use the TGR Forums as the "Third Floor Bathroom" for my thoughts. This seems like as good a place as any to rant.

[RoooR]

Damn, that's incredible. But it does seem like interest rates have no room to go up with the tens of trillions in debt the USA has no hope of ever paying back, let alone slowing the increasing national debt.

As long as the most ambitious and hardest working citizens of the rest of the world keep moving to America then we'll be able to kick the can longer than Japan. Population growth is free GDP points.

[shroom]

wut

good for you guys. may I visit when the vax is ready?

you bet, looking forward to it

Congrats, sounds like a score and gma is probably delighted. Hope to see you two around still.

gma is loving it. she’s my last of that generation so i am as well. work/family/bbi should pull me over, the mountains will call

[RootSkier]

As long as the most ambitious and hardest working citizens of the rest of the world keep moving to America then we'll be able to kick the can longer than Japan. Population growth is free GDP points.

We should've given a green card to everyone in Hong Kong but we are too racist to look out for our own self-interest.

[Toadman]

We should've given a green card to everyone in Hong Kong but we are too racist to look out for our own self-interest.

This is America, home of capitalism. We should have charged every HKG resident $1 million for a green card. But I hear JaKush has connections to get his rich foreign buddies green cards on the DL.

[anotherVTskibum]

This is America, home of capitalism. We should have charged every HKG resident $1 million for a green card. But I hear JaKush has connections to get his rich foreign buddies green cards on the DL.

It's only $500k to buy a green card through the EB-5 program, and you might actually get a return on the money if it doesn't end up in a pyramid scheme first...

Sent from my SM-G892A using TGR Forums mobile app

[XXX-er]

They tried that in Canada and it didnt really work all that well

[Toadman]

It's only $500k to buy a green card through the EB-5 program, and you might actually get a return on the money if it doesn't end up in a pyramid scheme first...

Sent from my SM-G892A using TGR Forums mobile app

Well, for an extra $500k, you get moved to the front of the line, because, Capitalism!!!