Real Estate Crash thread

[Percy Rideout]

lol. Little parasite sucking big dollar dick. Come the fuck on asshole, many people buying in the mountains it’s their second or third home. Especially in asspan.

Add something to the conversation or go away. Speaking for all of TGR here.............

[sirbumpsalot]

Add something to the conversation or go away. Speaking for all of TGR here.............

You might be the only one on TGR that doesn't have her on block.

[mcphee]

Add something to the conversation or go away. Speaking for all of TGR here.............

What exactly do you add? Aint seen one pic, piece of advice, or demonstration of expertise from you.

[dunfree]

You might be the only one on TGR that doesn't have her on block.

snowflake.

[m2711c]

Funny how this time around is nothing like last time, which was nothing like the time before.

ha! fact…

[goldenboy]

I'm about to have the cash to buy my first investment property. Likely somewhere between Driggs/Bozeman/Cooke City (I'm in Bozeman). I'm curious though, with all the doom and gloom about skyrocketing prices and potential rate hikes, how many of you who own rental properties would pull the trigger on your first one right now?

I'd buy 5 if I could before rates go up, and I'm actively trying to buy one out of state. Rents are going to keep increasing, and while appreciation will start to slow, the simple fact is that there is a housing shortage that would take 10 years to build our way out of. Even last year, there were more "new households formed" than there were homes built. Things aren't crashing anytime soon unless a new variant takes out 25% of the US.

[Name Redacted]

I'd buy 5 if I could before rates go up, and I'm actively trying to buy one out of state. Rents are going to keep increasing, and while appreciation will start to slow, the simple fact is that there is a housing shortage that would take 10 years to build our way out of. Even last year, there were more "new households formed" than there were homes built. Things aren't crashing anytime soon unless a new variant takes out 25% of the US.

Spoken like a true dirt pimp! Haha, I'm putting in an offer on a place in Moab right now!

[goldenboy]

Spoken like a true dirt pimp!

I know, I almost didn't say anything so I wouldn't seem like such a pimp. But the economics on a macro scale are so straightforward.

[El Chupacabra]

This has recently happened near us. A crappy old strip mall with MONSTROUS, useless parking lots got a shitload of apartments built on it. The strip mall got a facelift, a bunch of new tenants, and it kinda looks like it might make a go of it...

Reno's former Park Lane mall is in the middle of being turned into a massive complex of apartments, shopping, restaurants, etc. Rent prices for the units look crazy high to me, and you'd have to pay me to live in that location anyway.

https://redreno.com/

[Dantheman]

ha! fact…

Last time an artificially pumped up real estate market collapsed and crashed the economy. This time it will take the economy crashing to collapse the real estate market. Real estate bombs in either scenario, but the cause is entirely different than '08. Also, as goldenboy noted there is a supply shortage that didn't exist in '08--in '08 there was actually a supply glut--so even a general recession doesn't seem guaranteed to collapse the real estate market to the degree that happened in '08. Even a major RE market correction doesn't seem likely to lead to mass foreclosures since so many homes are being bought all-cash or with lots of money down and low-interest fixed-rate mortgages.

[liv2ski]

Huh...2bdrm/2bath 1000 sq ft for $2,500 a month. Rent like everything else is getting crazy.

[Ted Striker]

Last time an artificially pumped up real estate market collapsed and crashed the economy. This time it will take the economy crashing to collapse the real estate market.

And monetizing thin air. If/when that happens again on a large enough scale, there will be similar results.

[ColMan]

I'd buy 5 if I could before rates go up, and I'm actively trying to buy one out of state. Rents are going to keep increasing, and while appreciation will start to slow, the simple fact is that there is a housing shortage that would take 10 years to build our way out of. Even last year, there were more "new households formed" than there were homes built. Things aren't crashing anytime soon unless a new variant takes out 25% of the US.

So I would assume you are long on REITs as well?

[fastfred]

Spoken like a true dirt pimp! Haha, I'm putting in an offer on a place in Moab right now!

I wanted to say some thing you beat me to it and it's all good cause at the end of the day no one gives ashit

This house your buying is it the shit hole split level ranch I've had my eye on but at 500k and needing150k worth of work? I'll wait for the crash like everyone else

[liv2ski]

I'll wait for the crash like everyone else

Quoted as a reminder for the future. For my entire adult life the FED has bailed everything out. If I would of understood the repercussions of that 30 years ago I would be fuck you wealthy rather than just comfortable.
As long as the FED can support everything Fred, don't hold your breath on a major reset unless everyone loses their job.
I was reading a doom and gloom article yesterday on the impending Civil War in this country. Yup, lots of people think a shooting conflict will break out in the next 5 years, if not sooner. That is about all my imagination can recon will throw the country and asset prices under the bus.
If the country really becomes that estranged from each other, I sure hope we just do an amicable divorce (red and blue states).

[Bobcat Sig]

Quoted as a reminder for the future. For my entire adult life the FED has bailed everything out. If I would of understood the repercussions of that 30 years ago I would be fuck you wealthy rather than just comfortable.
As long as the FED can support everything Fred, don't hold your breath on a major reset unless everyone loses their job.
I was reading a doom and gloom article yesterday on the impending Civil War in this country. Yup, lots of people think a shooting conflict will break out in the next 5 years, if not sooner. That is about all my imagination can recon will throw the country and asset prices under the bus.
If the country really becomes that estranged from each other, I sure hope we just do an amicable divorce (red and blue states).

A true civil war terrifies me on a number of levels. Nonetheless, should that come to pass; a split is needed. It shouldn't necessarily be red v blue states. Instead, a more regional break-up likely. Whether that be clusters of states forming their own unions, kooks that have long wanted to form up Cascadia or the State of Jefferson, or economically dictates splits - all seem like a plausible scenario.

[dan_pdx]

A true civil war terrifies me on a number of levels. Nonetheless, should that come to pass; a split is needed. It shouldn't necessarily be red v blue states. Instead, a more regional break-up likely. Whether that be clusters of states forming their own unions, kooks that have long wanted to form up Cascadia or the State of Jefferson, or economically dictates splits - all seem like a plausible scenario.

It does kind of look like we're heading that way. Given what would be an acrimonious divorce, I can't imagine we would be able to present a united front on the world stage, which leaves China and Russia as the world's superpowers, with the EU maybe a notch below that. That will be kind of sucky for us, but will give everyone many opportunities to say "I told you so," which is probably enough for 98% of Americans.

[Bobcat Sig]

.... That will be kind of sucky for us, but will give everyone many opportunities to say "I told you so," which is probably enough for 98% of Americans.

And that's the worst of it because it's clear that everything now is a political battleground, and each side would love nothing more than to be right. It's petty and a huge bummer.

[Toadman]

I'd buy 5 if I could before rates go up, and I'm actively trying to buy one out of state. Rents are going to keep increasing, and while appreciation will start to slow, the simple fact is that there is a housing shortage that would take 10 years to build our way out of. Even last year, there were more "new households formed" than there were homes built. Things aren't crashing anytime soon unless a new variant takes out 25% of the US.

Plus inflation. Lumber prices up over $1k per 1k board feet of lumber. And when things do crash, at least on WS, that will trickle down to us on Main Street, and no one will be building RE just like after the 2008 crash.

[liv2ski]

Plus inflation. Lumber prices up over $1k per 1k board feet of lumber. And when things do crash, at least on WS, that will trickle down to us on Main Street, and no one will be building RE just like after the 2008 crash.

My memory isn't the best for shit that doesn't matter to me, but was it not the failing of the banks (I was with Wachovia) that lead to the stock market imploding? Not the other way around? That was all because of accelerating foreclosures as "Liar Loans" defaulted and blew up the banks and then the markets and few had the balls to try and catch a falling knife as the implosion played out.
I remember in mid 2007 we stopped making Liar Loans. People could not refinance their shitty 2-3 year ARM (cuz they never qualified to begin with) and the house of cards blew up everything.

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

Huh. I should buy as many properties as I can before rate hikes, but there could be a massive crash or maybe a Civil War. Are you guys actually all living in my head? Cause those are the thoughts I have on the regular.

[dan_pdx]

Huh. I should buy as many properties as I can before rate hikes, but there could be a massive crash or maybe a Civil War. Are you guys actually all living in my head? Cause those are the thoughts I have on the regular.

Well yeah, can't you hear me talking in your head?

[skaredshtles]

I, personally, would like to have *less* property. I'm tired of it. It's a hassle, it's expensive, and it brings me no joy.

[glademaster]

Huh...2bdrm/2bath 1000 sq ft for $2,500 a month. Rent like everything else is getting crazy.

Holy fuck that’s a deal and I’m not being facetious. A place like that for less than $3-4k a month is a screaming deal anywhere that family trees aren’t straight lines.

I paid that for an 800 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath place (plus all utilities) 30 miles outside Seattle 3 years ago. Your boomer is showing.

[muted reborn]

Spoken like a true dirt pimp! Haha, I'm putting in an offer on a place in Moab right now!

Seen in Moab recently - Coloradans are the new Texans.



Is that 2000 house development still happening south of Moab?