Real Estate Crash thread

[glademaster]

I live about 16-17 miles from the closest spot with a cell signal. I think it's going to be awhile before 5G gets here.

[Name Redacted]

I live about 16-17 miles from the closest spot with a cell signal. I think it's going to be awhile before 5G gets here.

Hence the "Some of you" part.....guy who was previously not even commenting on the subject.

[glademaster]

Sorry, I didn't realize that this thread with almost 11,000 posts was open to participation by invitation only.

GFYS.

[BCMtnHound]

Big fibre optic cable runs through town, but the local provider (Telus) won't run it into the community cause of economies of scale. They bought the local cable provider though, and so are either providing lackluster (but reliable) DSL, or gouging with a cable system that is 30 or 40 yrs old. No fan of Musk himself, but his satellite option will be a game-changer if it holds true.

[Bobcat Sig]

Sorry, I didn't realize that this thread with almost 11,000 posts was open to participation by invitation only.

GFYS.

[Name Redacted]

Sorry, I didn't realize that this thread with almost 11,000 posts was open to participation by invitation only.

GFYS.

Haha! god damn you are a bitch!

[goldenboy]

Ok, which of you dentists threw down for the last Cimarron memberships? And can you please invite me to join you? https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/16/c...ing-sells-out/

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[glademaster]

Haha! god damn you are a bitch!

This reply doesn't even make sense contextually, but whatever. Eat shit and choke on it, dude. Hope I can say that to you in person someday.

[Name Redacted]

Ok, which of you dentists threw down for the last Cimarron memberships? And can you please invite me to join you? https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/16/c...ing-sells-out/

Looks pretty legit:

[BFD]

figured I would bump this to say Bozeman FKNA
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...74929657_zpid/
gone in one day offer above listing. probably should of listed higher.

[shroom]

but it’s cute


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[liv2ski]

For what looks like a mish mash of additions.

[Kevo]

I sold my house in Golden, CO last month for $780k. A house with the same floor plan on the same (good view) side of the street but without a finished basement went on the market recently at $740k. The house has 1 less bedroom and bathroom than mine did but overall better finishes.

They have now lowered the price to $720k. Are things peaking? Or maybe seasonality?

I'm bullish long term on Front Range Real Estate with open space and trail access. I'm still a little conflicted about having sold my house, so the idea of buying the house in question has crossed my mind.

[liv2ski]

Why buy it as a rental property Kevo? If you want rentals, try and pick up 2-4 unit properties as the cash flow better.

[Name Redacted]

I sold my house in Golden, CO last month for $780k. A house with the same floor plan on the same (good view) side of the street but without a finished basement went on the market recently at $740k. The house has 1 less bedroom and bathroom than mine did but overall better finishes.

They have now lowered the price to $720k. Are things peaking? Or maybe seasonality?

I'm bullish long term on Front Range Real Estate with open space and trail access. I'm still a little conflicted about having sold my house, so the idea of buying the house in question has crossed my mind.

Seems like an overall loss after commission and transaction fees.

Why Golden anyway? Why not buy a nice condo that you can short term and use whenever you want? For that kind of money you could buy a 2br/2ba condo in just about any desirable ski destination in the country and have it pay for itself while appreciating equity.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Why not buy a nice condo that you can short term and use whenever you want? For that kind of money you could buy a 2br/2ba condo in just about any desirable ski destination in the country and have it pay for itself while appreciating equity

Which is why the whole "affordable housing" idea is such a joke. When I say, "remind me again why we want affordable housing and who is supposed to pay for it", I get a lot of defensive responses and head scratching. So 99% of what local government does increases the cost of housing then on the side they have this little feel good side hustle that does nothing.

[CascadeLuke]

Lost in a bidding war today. 4 days on market. Client went 10% over and we lost by a mile. 31 total offers and agent commented he must have turned away another 15. Property ended up 20%+ over ask.
$600k range in Seattle is pretty fun right now

[ntblanks]

Lost in a bidding war today. 4 days on market. Client went 10% over and we lost by a mile. 31 total offers and agent commented he must have turned away another 15. Property ended up 20%+ over ask.
$600k range in Seattle is pretty fun right now

2006 all over again

[RootSkier]

For what looks like a mish mash of additions.

Good chance it's a scraper.

[Benny Profane]

Seems like an overall loss after commission and transaction fees.

Why Golden anyway? Why not buy a nice condo that you can short term and use whenever you want? For that kind of money you could buy a 2br/2ba condo in just about any desirable ski destination in the country and have it pay for itself while appreciating equity.

Are you in RE sales?

[Mazderati]

The run-up in prices is similar to 2004-07 but it is harder for me to see the impetus for a correction. The cohort buying in the middle of a pandemic over the last ten months would seem to be more financially secure than the cohort in 2004-07.

[AdironRider]

Yeah, I don't see it imploding in spectacular fashion again. Back then, literally everything was going gangbusters, even little podunk NH towns and people with liar loans for examples.

This go round, it seems more location specific (popular cities, mountain town real estate, etc) and buyers that actually pass some sort of underwriting review.

That isn't to say there won't be a correction, but it will be more like 5-10% at most. I also think interest rates will continue their downward spiral, and within a decade we will see loans with rates under 1% with points. No way in hell we ever see a mortgage rate over 5 in our lifetimes again.

PS. Are you guys really cash out refinancing again this year? At some point renewing 30 year terms is going to bite you and you gotta pay the thing off eventually right? I'm starting to think its better to just throw a little extra scratch at the principal each month and effectively lower my total interest paid that way.

[Name Redacted]

PS. Are you guys really cash out refinancing again this year? At some point renewing 30 year terms is going to bite you and you gotta pay the thing off eventually right? I'm starting to think its better to just throw a little extra scratch at the principal each month and effectively lower my total interest paid that way.

Why would you pay down principle when you could reinvest in just about anything else and get a far better ROI? Paying down principle only returns what your interest rate is, not what the appreciation of equity on the house is.

What if you took out an additional $100K at 2.8% APR on a 30 year mortgage, and invested it the S&P 500? Even conservative estimates say you would be at least doubling your ROI.
OR you paid off other higher interest debt effectively giving you an immediate and guaranteed return?

Plus, who do you think is actually going to live in the same house with the same mortgage for 30 years?

[liv2ski]

All good points AR. I am here to tell you, get the property paid off. Thank Dog my primary paid off around 2008 when my income was reduced to 25% of what I made before that and then the rentals paid off a few years ago or I would of been fucked.
Employment shit can happen in your 50's, so get your nut low in those years so you can either save a bunch if your job is solid or survive if you get let go like so many people I know.

[AdironRider]

Why would you pay down principle when you could reinvest in just about anything else and get a far better ROI? Paying down principle only returns what your interest rate is, not what the appreciation of equity on the house is.

What if you took out an additional $100K at 2.8% APR on a 30 year mortgage, and invested it the S&P 500? Even conservative estimates say you would be at least doubling your ROI.
OR you paid off other higher interest debt effectively giving you an immediate and guaranteed return?

Plus, who do you think is actually going to live in the same house with the same mortgage for 30 years?

Because most humans do not have the discipline to reinvest an equal amount of money in the S&P500 (or other vehicles). Median retirement balance, let alone investments, is a whopping 60ish thousand dollars nationwide, and that doesn't include 1/2 the country that has no savings at all.

Paying off the mortgage is a guaranteed return, which has a value in and of itself. I am discounting this "paying off high interest debt" argument here because I'm referencing taking out another refi after 6 months. If you have jacked your credit balances that much that fast you have bigger problems and just proves my point that the vast majority don't have the savings discipline mentioned above.

And finally, I do personally believe that a paid off house or condo is the only way to have a successful retirement (combination of cash flow benefits and lack of anxiety/stress). Continuing to refi starts that clock over and over again.