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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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07-17-2019, 11:43 AM #7501Funky But Chic
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I just looked it up, the total cost all all Federal Flood Insurance programs is $30 bil/year. You would advocate saving that money but recognize that it would destroy trillions of dollars in property value. And as I said above there is some unknown (but certainly figure-outable) number of billions that would be lost in other taxes and wages.
I would just say it's probably more nuanced than you seem to believe.
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07-17-2019, 11:54 AM #7502
41 million people live in a flood zone. Thats like 700 bucks a head. No way flood insurance is a net loss economically.
Live Free or Die
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07-17-2019, 12:09 PM #7503Registered User
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sometimes gov't can't get out of their own way
heard about a tax payer funded project that was just completed, usually they waive fees and endless other bs and taxes to cut down and costs even other crap like hauling trash to a gov't owned dump
well the gov't who paid for the work didn't bother cutting any slack on any fees, it's kind of a joke a contractor paid the fees as usual, mark up the fees and charged them for it
yes cheap housing can be built, but how safe and how well does it "blend in" with the existing
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07-17-2019, 01:06 PM #7504
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07-17-2019, 01:14 PM #7505
That is actually kinda surprising. I've never heard of govt protects coming in cheap and getting hookups.
Jackson gets to vote on a 2 million dollar pre-construction budget for a new courthouse. At least people get to vote on that one. I cannot fathom how they could even bullshit their way to a 2 million dollar number there.Live Free or Die
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07-17-2019, 01:17 PM #7506
But, it's also a pretty clearcut issue of welfare for the rich, because almost anybody who can afford to own or even get into the credit game buying a waterfront property is technically rich, because, you know, waterfront property. It's a vicious cycle that, I agree, has created a massive economy beyond just homeowners in these places, but, it's pretty absurd that we are living with that situation when millions have no health care and education is crumbling, but, some dude is sipping fine wine on the deck of his MacMansion with an awesome view, and that house wouldn't be there but for the trillions of insurance subsidies, highly restrictive zoning, and the trillions we use to support our financial industry that makes it all possible.
Don't get me going about the utterly stupid Sisyphean process of replenishing beaches and dunes, that costs hundreds of billions, when one good northeaster just wipes it all away in a day.Last edited by Benny Profane; 07-17-2019 at 01:44 PM.
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07-17-2019, 02:05 PM #7507Registered User
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lol that courthouse will never get built. no one cares except the govt and they'll never find money in the general fund for that. I hope. I will be very ashamed of our so-called community if we vote to piss away money when we have a perfectly fine courthouse right now.
I really hate the rampant welfare for the rich that goes on in our government at all levels, but it's just not very practical to do anything about the flood insurance program now. maybe reforming it for new construction, but that's never going to happen. if you hit current beneficiaries of the flood program hard, they might not spend as much on other things that keep the economy flowing. the financial aspect is minimal; the bigger problem is that it encourages building in environmentally sensitive areas. if you feel it's morally wrong and want to stick it to the rich benny, you should become an advocate for outlawing defacto single family zoning and laugh as people build triplexes or larger in their neighborhood.
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07-17-2019, 02:12 PM #7508
Yup, I don't see that ever getting done either, I just laugh at the concept that they need 2 million bucks just to decide if they want to build a new courthouse or not. In that sense, calling it a pre-construction budget was being generous.
Live Free or Die
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07-17-2019, 02:20 PM #7509
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07-17-2019, 02:32 PM #7510
My hood is still moving along, but there is definitely more inventory coming online.
I bought for $518k 2.5 years ago in Golden, CO. A house down the street with the same floor plan as mine, but without an additional bedroom and bathroom in the basement (4 bed, 3.5 bath vs 3 bed, 2.5 bath) went on the market last month at $660k and sold in 3 days at $725k.
Seems ridiculous. I definitely didn't expect my street to break the $700k mark this year.
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07-17-2019, 02:51 PM #7511
NH was just reassessed and a bunch of people are trying to go to court over it. It is supposedly going to be implemented this year.
This is from the report about the coast specifically which is 13 miles +/- long.
*By 2045, more than $645 million worth of residential property (based on today’s values) is at risk of chronic flooding. The homes that would face this flooding at the end of the century are currently worth about $2.4 billion.
*Homes at risk in 2045 currently contribute about $9 million in annual property tax revenue to their municipalities.
And the idiot drops out of the Paris agreement and pull back on 83 environmental rules...22 on air pollution. Makes sense.
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07-17-2019, 03:03 PM #7512
Well, that's very cynical of you. So, the economy next to the water slowly collapses. Do you think that money isn't mobile? It will just go elsewhere, and the services will follow. In the NYC region, you'd probably see the Catskills return to former glory, and Vermont would rock, too.
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07-17-2019, 04:03 PM #7513
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07-17-2019, 06:50 PM #7514
Real Estate Crash thread
If there was ever a time to get rid of NFiP or greatly scale down the program, it is now. Insurance has never been cheaper. This is largely a result of money pouring in from hedge funds and institutional investors. The reinsurance market is completely flooded with cash. The whole, “no one writes flood policies” is a myth. No one writes flood policies until the government policy is exhausted, I.e $500k for a building and $250k on contents. The NFIP is a joke in how it is administrated and how much they pay the brokers who place policies that are usually compulsory under the terms of the owners loan. Additionally the coverage sucks, acv only, no replacement cost.
ETA that many NFIP policy holders are actually being charged reasonable or even high premiums. Problem is that these policy holders are subsidizing the 2-3% of the worst risks.Last edited by neufox47; 07-17-2019 at 07:58 PM.
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08-03-2019, 01:02 PM #7515
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09-10-2019, 10:05 PM #7516
Real Estate Crash thread
https://apple.news/AK0vMhxTkTWOj8pLz6EQIDw
The U.S. housing finance system is worse off today than it was on the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials warned on Tuesday.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-controlled enterprises that stand behind half the country's mortgages, are way too undercapitalized, and lending standards have actually deteriorated since the housing crash, the officials said.
“This whole thing is a car wreck. It’s a dumpster fire,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the White House’s proposal to overhaul the way the nation finances mortgages.
“We spent $190 billion of taxpayer money, and we’re in worse shape,” he said, referring to the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by Treasury a decade ago to stave off catastrophic losses in the crisis.
“I will tell you as a safety-and-soundness regulator, when I look at a $3 trillion institution that is leveraged 1,000 to 1, it keeps me up at night,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria, the companies’ regulator, told the committee.
“If we do nothing, this is going to end very badly,” he added.
What’s more, Fannie and Freddie are less equipped for a downturn now than they were before the crisis, Senate Banking Chairman Mike o (R-Idaho) said. Before 2008, he said, the companies held 45 cents in capital for every $100 in mortgages; today that figure is 19 cents.
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09-10-2019, 11:03 PM #7517
The republicans just want to help the banks and private lenders more than they already have.
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09-11-2019, 05:38 AM #7518Funky But Chic
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09-11-2019, 11:52 AM #7519
car is on cinderblocks, and new grill is part of the insurance scam?
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09-11-2019, 01:37 PM #7520
Worse than 2008? Ahhhh doubt itttt
Decisions Decisions
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09-12-2019, 08:15 AM #7521
Very difficult to imagine a big pull back of 30%+ on values without huge job losses or banks failing right and left. In a recession, with continued low inventories for sale, maybe flat to a little lower in the next 12 months, but not by much.
CA did just pass state wide rent control, so that will likely slow down investors buying anything with a tenant in it.
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09-12-2019, 08:47 AM #7522
Real Estate Crash thread
I’m sensing you’re hoping it doesn’t rather than looking objectively. Why in a recession would there be low inventory? I’d speculate inventory going up like last time with people trying to cash a depreciating asset- or simply cannot afford the payment on their underwater home.
Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies don’t receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and it’s a house of cards..
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09-12-2019, 09:00 AM #7523
I’ve read quite a bit in here might have missed it but didn’t recall seeing this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ousing-market/
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09-12-2019, 01:04 PM #7524
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09-12-2019, 01:29 PM #7525
Did you see credit default swaps coming?
Of course you didn’t - no one knew except a small percent of the Wall Street types. What’s lurking below the surface of this already obviously precarious market?
What will it all look like after Don waives his magical wand at the financial system? (As seems he’s about to make a hudge overhaul with his financial crony’s)
Will he make his 5th bankruptcy everyone’s problem?
I know he has a knack for being a market leader like when he opened Trump Mortgage services in mid 2006. But I feel like his heart just isn’t in the right place these days.
Anyhow, I’m not arguing and let’s be observant.
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