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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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10-15-2019, 01:59 PM #7726Registered User
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10-15-2019, 02:12 PM #7727
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10-15-2019, 02:33 PM #7728Registered User
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10-15-2019, 02:34 PM #7729
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10-15-2019, 02:48 PM #7730Registered User
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10-15-2019, 02:51 PM #7731
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10-15-2019, 03:03 PM #7732Registered User
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10-15-2019, 03:44 PM #7733
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10-15-2019, 09:47 PM #7734
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10-16-2019, 12:18 AM #7735
Real Estate Crash thread
This is your problem. See the plethora of articles with a subject of ‘the middle class is shrinking’. If it’s defined by an income percentage, it literally cannot shrink.
I would say most people define the middle class as living a particular lifestyle you would commonly see in the 50-80s. An average sized home of 3-4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a location with a reasonable commute (15-30min) and decent schools, maybe a nice vacation once or twice a year, two decent used vehicles (not beaters), a restaurant once or twice a month, and a bit left over for saving for retirement and college.
The goalposts of the middle class have shifted somewhat since the 50s-80s, where two working parents and childcare are common and commutes are closer to 20-45min. But other than that, I’d say its the same.
Your fixation on income and home cost is a major problem for the above understanding of middle class. In a few major cities, $250k combined wouldn’t get you much more than the above (so upper middle class at best). Home prices would be anywhere from $700k to 1.25mil. For a family that bought their house in 2004, an income might be $150k to afford the above lifestyle... in the same location! In a random midwest town, the equivalent lifestyle might be $80k combined and a $250k house. See how income and home prices don’t mean shit when you define middle class by a lifestyle?
So yeah, your definition of middle class is different than many others’ definition and is problematic.
And yes, moving to that midwest town means you have to trade your $250k income for the $80k income.Last edited by Lindahl; 10-16-2019 at 12:48 AM.
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10-16-2019, 06:17 AM #7736
Well said, thanks for the good explanation that eluded me.
"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 08:56 AM #7737
But what defines "middle class"? It is a moving target based on where you live. So with all the democrats speaking about helping and/or not raising taxes for the middle class, who exactly are they talking about? A quick google says 64k. That won't get you shit around my neck of the woods. Really, like not even an outhouse.
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10-16-2019, 09:14 AM #7738
There is some type of weird locational entitlement at play here. Living in Golden and Boulder are choices. As already said, you don't get to claim that you are not wealthy because you voluntarily purchased an expensive house. That makes no sense. Doesn't someone else get to claim in same if they used there income for an expensive car or multiple vacations?
I have no idea where the lines should be defining low, middle, upper and what ever other classes you want to define are. I do know that statistics can be manipulated and cost of living varies regionally. That said, the hypothetical "We have $250K annual household income but we are not wealthy" family can to there twisted sense of struggle and stick it in there ass.
While your personal finances are you own problem, you can't run away from the data.
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10-16-2019, 09:23 AM #7739
Somewhere around 65% of households own there home. You want a "weekend ski condo" and want to be middle class. Hilarious. Ask yourself a few questions.
Do I have granite counters?
How much did you spend last year on vacations?
How much did you spend last year on eating out?
Do you have any item of clothing that you paid $500 for?
Now based on your own definitions, are you middle class?
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10-16-2019, 09:25 AM #7740
Skis are an extension of my feet.
Move upside and let the man go through...
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10-16-2019, 09:26 AM #7741
OK, lets break this down based entirely on lifestyle, and ignore income.
But first, you are arguing that paying 750-1.25 million is just a family trying to live the middle class lifestyle, without acknowledging that at the end of the day, when they go and sell that home, they are millionaires and have, literally, 5x the average wealth of the typical American at retirement. I would argue that is not middle class. That is an investment made that has value, both monetarily and in their lifestyle as well....
You also seem to think you can get the exact same lifestyle in either town, which I would argue is not true. A place with home values at 750k to 1.25 million is not providing the same lifestyle as a place with 250k home prices. You are paying extra for a luxury good, whether that be access to mountains like Boulder, culture like NYC, or say the beach in Santa Barbara. That has a value, and makes up a large part of one's class if you want to argue lifestyle. Let alone the typically better schools, or better infrastructure, or any of the myriad of other reasons why Boulder costs more than say Longmont.
It feels like you are arguing in the sense that every location is operating in a vacuum, where there would be a upper, middle and lower class within each locations boundaries. When that has never been true. The middle class typically doesn't live on the beach or right downtown in the penthouses, they live up in Longmont (for the Boulder example) or they live in the Bronx (NYC example). Sure there are exceptions (like say the ski bum who bought in Jackson in 1965), but those are just that, exceptions. Living in Boulder is part of what makes up someones class, if it is about living a lifestyle.
Someone said it earlier, but choosing to live in that given location is primarily due to class (in that similar people group together). Buying a single family home in Boulder is something only an upper class person could entertain, (and this is not meant as an insult in any way towards Danno, I am sure Danno works hard and makes good decisions, which allowed him to do this). That 3 bed 2 bath in Boulder might be fucking expensive, but your class allows you in that door, which has value both in terms of investment, and the the Boulder lifestyle.
Go back and read that hypothetical 350k family's budget. That "middle class lifestyle" results in them having 1.8 million in real estate, can put 50k a year into retirement plans / savings, paying for private schools, etc. That is not middle class when they are going to be worth the better part of 10 million dollars when the kids move out (to a private college, with no student loans). It is just ridiculous to argue otherwise. Sure they might just be living in a 3 bed /2 bath, but they are still fucking millionaires on the Upper West Side.
People can make smart decisions and jump up classes and maybe have less income (like say buying in Boulder decades ago). That is a reward, not a detriment. He gets to live an upper class lifestyle on an income that is lower. 250k however, allows you basically zero stress and a "lifestyle" that results in you being a millionaire pretty much guaranteed, literally anywhere in America, right now. That has never been middle class, which is why I am arguing it is totally insane to say otherwise. Saying you can afford just a little 3 bed / 2 bath, without acknowledging it is in Jackson, does not make you middle class.Live Free or Die
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10-16-2019, 09:27 AM #7742
Foggy, that's a weird way to look at it, IMO. Sure, Boulder or Golden or the Fraser valley are choices. But the way you're looking at it says that there simply can't be a middle class in expensive areas. Because if you say a middle class family -- with no accounting for location and cost of living -- is, say, $63k annually (by your graphic), that household simply won't be living in Boulder unless they are in low income affordable housing. And maybe that's your position, that Boulder cannot by definition have a middle class, that NYC or SF or wherever expensive can't by definition have a middle class. But that doesn't seem correct to me.
To me, middle class is the way that Lindahl defined it. And in some areas, to have that existence takes more income than you accept as middle class.
So yes, I could struggle less if I lived somewhere other than Boulder, and because I already commute to Denver I certainly don't need to stay here for a job. Instead, I stay here because I bought a home here 14 years ago, because my friends are here, because my daughter goes to school here. Sure, choices I make. Just like everyone makes choices. You choose to live where you do for the same reasons, even if it is more expensive and closer to the population center than you'd like. You could be rich if you made your income and instead lived somewhere much cheaper. But a) you probably couldn't make the same money somewhere else, and b) you don't want to move to those places or haven't moved to those places. That doesn't change your economic status in the place you live. We could all be wealthy living in Iowa. That doesn't mean we're still wealthy when we live here."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 09:29 AM #7743
Do I have granite counters? No, but close enough.
How much did you spend last year on vacations? Very little, maybe a few hundred?
How much did you spend last year on eating out? Very little, under $1000.
Do you have any item of clothing that you paid $500 for? Fuck no.
What did I win? Not a weekend ski condo, unfortunately."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 09:30 AM #7744"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 09:32 AM #7745"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 09:33 AM #7746
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10-16-2019, 09:34 AM #7747
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10-16-2019, 09:34 AM #7748"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 09:37 AM #7749
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10-16-2019, 09:43 AM #7750
The key to his "argument" is the belief that debt is bad, only stupid people take on debt, and only the wealthy deserve the benefits of lifestyle. Including benefits like substantial housing appreciation, low crime, and good schools. And apparently outdoor recreation. It's the US class warfare and acceptance of lack of social mobility in a nicebow.
A double-MD household just out of school might easily have $250k in income and a pile of debt. They also have a plan out of the debt because they've a useful skill and a reasonable career path.
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