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  1. #22226
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    The US has been exporting its monetary inflation for many many decades.

    Velocity is interesting.

    M1. M2. M3. Wait whut? Why donít we measure M3 anymore?

    That died in 2006.

    Even consumer inflation measure is fucked.

    Substitution. Yeah. Fuck off. I want steak, not hamburger

  2. #22227
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    Danno

    Fair point. But it’s a thorn in my side.
    Everyone thinks inflation is a mystical retail price increase.

    Why.

    Tell me. Please.


    If you know what monetary inflation is Then you might understand price inflation.

    But if you can explain this insanity of retail inflation I’m all ears.

  3. #22228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    God you're a twat.
    I'd just leave it at this.

  4. #22229
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    Specific words matter when you're talking about technical terms.

  5. #22230
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    trolls get hungry for attention…

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  6. #22231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in monetary supply.

    Fact.

    Consumer inflation is more complicated. But usually arrives after monetary inflation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Umm. Yeah. Letís trust the federal reserve.
    A non federal group of private bankers.
    Whoís goal is to keep inflation at two percent.

    Monetary inflation is well known.
    Weimar Republic
    Zimbabwe
    Argentina.

    But keep money printer brrrrrrrr

    LMK how that works 7 trillion later.

    Monetary inflation is not the same as consumer inflation.
    But the former always always leads to the latter.
    Wake the fuck up.

    Brrrrrrrrrrrrr
    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Were you always this stupid and unedumacated?

    It only took me a second of googles.

    Wtf.


    =========

    Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply of a country. Depending on many factors, especially public expectations, the fundamental state and development of the economy, and the transmission mechanism, it is likely to result in price inflation, which is usually just called "inflation", which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. There is general agreement among economists that there is a causal relationship between monetary inflation and price inflation. But there is neither a common view about the exact theoretical mechanisms and relationships, nor about how to accurately measure it. This relationship is also constantly changing, within a larger complex economic system.Wikipedia
    Self quoting. Wtf asshats.
    I was clear from first post what inflation is.
    And how it leads to your butthurt grocery inflation.

    But please. School me on the current inflation.

    Im waiting.

    Does it involve Ukraine?

  7. #22232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The US has been exporting its monetary inflation for many many decades.

    Velocity is interesting.

    M1. M2. M3. Wait whut? Why donít we measure M3 anymore?

    That died in 2006.

    Even consumer inflation measure is fucked.

    Substitution. Yeah. Fuck off. I want steak, not hamburger
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?

  8. #22233
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?
    Yes. It’s coming.

    It’s weird st Louis reports M3. But not the actual fed.

    PS. That chart is scary

  9. #22234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Self quoting. Wtf asshats.
    I was clear from first post what inflation is.
    And how it leads to your butthurt grocery inflation.

    But please. School me on the current inflation.

    Im waiting.

    Does it involve Ukraine?
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in consumer prices. Everyone is telling you are wrong, yet you keep ploughing ahead.

    Just like your bullshit 911 conspiracies. I still canít believe you keep quoting the Melting Point of steel as evidence of why they couldnít collapse.

    I guess if you are dumb enough to make and standby that argument this shouldnít be a surprise.

  10. #22235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Yes. Itís coming.

    Itís weird st Louis reports M3. But not the actual fed.

    PS. That chart is scary
    If you truly believe that massive inflation is coming, you should buy shit tons of TIPS. Youíll make a killing if youíre right.

    Bond market is currently pricing in an average 2.73% inflation over the next 5 years, 2.23% the following 5.

  11. #22236
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    OECD measures M3 and the Fed reports it still:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    M3 is up by a factor of four over the past 20 years. Inflation as everyone else understands it is only up about 1.6x during that period. Are you suggesting we should expect retail prices to more than double again any day now?
    Man, that's a lot of money sitting in the uber rich stock funds and bank accounts. Most of it never taxed.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  12. #22237
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    If you truly believe that massive inflation is coming, you should buy shit tons of TIPS. You’ll make a killing if you’re right.

    Bond market is currently pricing in an average 2.73% inflation over the next 5 years, 2.23% the following 5.
    Yeah. It’s interesting times. I don’t have free cash. All my money is on hard assets. Which is usually a good hedge.

    It’s crazy what you say that the market is pricing 2 to 3 percent inflation.
    I don’t follow it as much as you obviously. But just go shopping for food or gas. It’s nutters.

    Edumacate me why the market isn’t seeing inflation?

    TIPS are based on federal inflation rates which have been lying for decades.

    Around here labor is insane. If you can find someone that wants to work.
    It’s trickle up economics.

  13. #22238
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    My two takeaways:

    1.) Talk of inflation angries up the blood.

    2.) The TGR overlords didn't spend any of the PPP money they got on a new box fan.

  14. #22239
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    Inflation (price inflation. Not monetary)
    . Without “substitution”
    They changed the rules.

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  15. #22240
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Disagree on the TIPS thing actually. If inflation goes up ( more than whatís currently priced) rates will go up. Tips are a longer duration asset. So youíll get hit w the duration component. Just wonít get hit as hard as regularly T bonds. See: Q1 2022. Tips kinda suck.
    Decisions Decisions

  16. #22241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summer View Post
    My two takeaways:

    1.) Talk of inflation angries up the blood.

    2.) The TGR overlords didn't spend any of the PPP money they got on a new box fan.
    It’s interesting to look at the somewhat similar to the usa crash in Australian consumer sentiment and compare it to the massively different pandemic response and prepandemic situation

  17. #22242
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    Our housing debt is astronomical and we don't have 30 year fixed mortgages. Most everyone's on variable, or up to a max 5 year fixed rate.

    There's other things at play, but lots of people have gone all-in on buying a house like these two teachers who spent $3.7 million on a tear-down.

  18. #22243
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    And lots of houses sell at auction, yeah, lots of differences

    my ancedata is also way more extended family property magnets.

  19. #22244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summer View Post
    Our housing debt is astronomical and we don't have 30 year fixed mortgages. Most everyone's on variable, or up to a max 5 year fixed rate.

    There's other things at play, but lots of people have gone all-in on buying a house like these two teachers who spent $3.7 million on a tear-down.
    Wow. That’s insane. None of those houses are nice.

  20. #22245
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    Plus Sydney is full of funnel web spiders anyway, so somewhere in all of those photos are lethal spiders that'll make you not feel much like dancing.

    Probably the most notorious of all spiders, Sydney Funnel-webs have a fearsome reputation. Most of this is deserved, but some is exaggerated.

    Male Sydney Funnel-web spiders have a habit of wandering into backyards and falling into suburban swimming pools, where they can survive many hours. They also sometimes enter and become trapped in houses. Again, it is true that Sydney Funnel-webs have one of the most toxic venoms (to humans) of any spider. However, it is not true that all funnel-web bites are life-threatening. The venom of juvenile and female Sydney Funnel-web Spiders is much less toxic. Nor do they jump onto, or chase people, or live in houses - these are all urban myths.


    /humblelethalbrag

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  21. #22246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Inflation (price inflation. Not monetary)
    . Without “substitution”
    They changed the rules.

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    Hmmm, shadowstats, seems legit. Also love how they don't drag the x axis back to 1990 to show difference from origin.
    Let me guess, Google searches for something that supported your position?

  22. #22247
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    I’ve been a fan of shadowstats since the feds stopped counting inflation the way they used to.
    Substitution is bullshit.

    I’m not sure they are legit. But our government lies to us. So I trust independent sites more than the fed.

    Ymmv. Or. Just look at your bills and expenses.

    Here’s the beginning of the discrepancy

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  23. #22248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Disagree on the TIPS thing actually. If inflation goes up ( more than what’s currently priced) rates will go up. Tips are a longer duration asset. So you’ll get hit w the duration component. Just won’t get hit as hard as regularly T bonds. See: Q1 2022. Tips kinda suck.
    To be clear: no one should be taking investment advice from me. I find the economics of it all pretty interesting, but couldn’t tell you anything about tax implications when investing outside of a 401k.

  24. #22249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    I’ve been a fan of shadowstats since the feds stopped counting inflation the way they used to.
    Substitution is bullshit.

    I’m not sure they are legit. But our government lies to us. So I trust independent sites more than the fed.

    Ymmv. Or. Just look at your bills and expenses.

    Here’s the beginning of the discrepancy

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    The Fed probably still tracks your preferred measure of inflation , it just might not be the one that’s widely reported, or the one that the Fed targets for monetary policy, or the one that is used to adjust Social Security cost of living.

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    Edit: Also, substitution is not bullshit. It’s grounded in pretty sound reasoning:

    Mainstream economists have a standard response: If we did not account for changed consumption patterns in response to changed prices, they say, we would overstate the cost of maintaining a constant level of satisfaction. Consider an example. Last week you went to the supermarket and bought 5 pounds of chicken at $2 a pound and 5 pounds of steak at $5 a pound, $35 total. This week you go to the supermarket and find that chicken still costs $2 but steak has gone up to $10. There is no question that the new prices leave you worse off than you were the week before, but how do you react?

    You would need $60 to buy the same basket of goods that you bought last week for $35. In reality, you might not have that $60 in your wallet or purse, but if I gave you a $60 coupon that you could spend only at the meat counter, you would probably not spend it on the same basket of goods you bought last week. Instead, you might buy, say, 10 pounds of chicken and 4 pounds of steak. However, since $60 would be enough to buy your previous selection if you wanted to, we could conclude that you would change the mix only if the new $60 selection gave you more satisfaction than the original one.”

    https://www.thestreet.com/economonit...-by-economists

    But in the end, all of these different measures are just tools to try and understand what’s going on in the economy. Different measures are going to make sense to use depending on what you’re trying to understand. If you don’t want to consider substitution effects, then just check the non-chained CPI.

  25. #22250
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    The chicken and steak example is one that seems prime for a Freakonomics analysis.

    In an economists' model, a rational actor would make a decision based on the price elasticity of steak, available substitutes, etc. In reality, and depending on the suburb, a person would make a decision based on the elasticity of their waistband and how much packaged steak they reckon they could fit in their pants as they stole it.

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