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  1. #22176
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    Great news bunion. Demand destruction is the only way out of this mess.

  2. #22177
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    And it’ll make the rebound more painful. Never break the bullwhip it’s the American way

  3. #22178
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    Oh it's going to be extremely painful no matter what. Anybody who has been paying attention the past two years knows that.

  4. #22179
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    And it’ll make the rebound more painful. Never break the bullwhip it’s the American way
    Lash the bull wheel with that bull whip.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  5. #22180
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    Oh it's going to be extremely painful no matter what. Anybody who has been paying attention the past two years knows that.
    it’s going to be but it doesn’t have to be. Economists know fuck all about supply constraints and care less

  6. #22181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Yes. Churches have employees.

    But I would have no problem taxing the churches. Fuck this non profit shit. Just don’t profit. Then there’s no taxes.
    Turns out it was 14 churches that collectively received $660k

    And yes, their tax exempt status is why I'm calling bullshit. And most - if not all - were flush with cash.

  7. #22182
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    I just went down the PPP rabbit hole for Teton county and discovered that Teton Gravity Research LLC was given a $439,177 loan for their 31 employees.
    Completely forgiven.


    Dang.
    Buy a new fucking fan, ya idgets.

  8. #22183
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    31 employees?

    Damn

  9. #22184
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    Nov 2002
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    It was free money for everyone and everyone took it, my business included, I but it is savings until it was forgiven. My accountant too some, I paid increased taxes with some, I go some new toys (used) with some and the rest is stuffed under a mattress waiting for Uncle Sam to take it back one way of the other.

    It is a large reason while we are in this inflationary and supply chain mess.

  10. #22185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles View Post
    It was free money for everyone and everyone took it. It is a large reason why we are in this inflationary and supply chain mess.
    My business didn't take it.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  11. #22186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles View Post
    It is a large reason while we are in this inflationary and supply chain mess.
    This is such a popular take and it’s utterly impervious to evidence.

  12. #22187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles View Post
    It was free money for everyone and everyone took it, my business included, I but it is savings until it was forgiven. My accountant too some, I paid increased taxes with some, I go some new toys (used) with some and the rest is stuffed under a mattress waiting for Uncle Sam to take it back one way of the other.

    It is a large reason while we are in this inflationary and supply chain mess.
    The supply chain issue is almost purely due to Covid. Even if demand was lower the supply chain would be fucked. When China locks down the 2nd largest city in the world for a few months things tend to get backed up. And that’s happened multiple times and will continue to happen. Every time it creates a bigger log jam that takes more time to unravel. If we decrease demand to much then those supply chains won’t ramp back up. Vicious cycle. Supply chain issue is world wide. So is inflation. US economy is in better shape than most, mainly because they turned on the money printing machine.

  13. #22188
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    This is such a popular take and it’s utterly impervious to evidence.
    Yep, it's one of the reasons the economy didn't completely crash out. We learned that in 2008 when we spent our way to avoid a massive depression, as opposed to the austerity measures in Europe that tanked their economy for much longer.
    Gotta love the narratives though, I'm sure plenty are already blaming Obama and Hillary for it.

  14. #22189
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    This is such a popular take and it’s utterly impervious to evidence.
    Indeed. People are always blaming the money printing for our current inflation. It's almost like a religious doctrine at this point, and it's equally durable against evidence to the contrary.

    I considered a PPP loan/grant but decided not to apply since my employees were still working and I personally didn't need it. Maybe that makes me a sucker, but not "everyone" took them. I generally agree with you, FG, but taking public bail out money and buying toys with it it's not a socially responsible look.
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  15. #22190
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    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    FG, taking public bail out money and buying toys with it it's not a socially responsible look.
    But but he is a virtue warrior?
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  16. #22191
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    such a tradgedy I tell you
    to pretend to give a shit

  17. #22192
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    Neighbors here dropped their asking price 10% after only 22 days on the market. Means something. Maybe it just means they're clueless.

  18. #22193
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    Neighbors here dropped their asking price 10% after only 22 days on the market. Means something. Maybe it just means they're clueless.
    It's a fine line between clueless and overly optimistic. Former co-worker has had 2 showings on his place. No offers. On the market going on 6 weeks, and he hasn't lowered the price yet. I guess the desperation hasn't set in yet.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  19. #22194
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    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    Indeed. People are always blaming the money printing for our current inflation. It's almost like a religious doctrine at this point, and it's equally durable against evidence to the contrary.

    I considered a PPP loan/grant but decided not to apply since my employees were still working and I personally didn't need it. Maybe that makes me a sucker, but not "everyone" took them. I generally agree with you, FG, but taking public bail out money and buying toys with it it's not a socially responsible look.
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in monetary supply.

    Fact.

    Consumer inflation is more complicated. But usually arrives after monetary inflation.

  20. #22195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in monetary supply.

    Fact.

    Consumer inflation is more complicated. But usually arrives after monetary inflation.
    So you just decide your definition of "inflation" is the correct "Fact"?

    The Federal reserve's basic defintion has fuck all to due with monetary supply: "Inflation is the increase in the prices of goods and services over time."

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14419.htm

  21. #22196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    The very definition of inflation is an increase in monetary supply.

    Fact.
    WTF. No. That is no one who means anything’s definition of inflation.

    What measure of monetary supply are you using anyway? M1 is up over 17x from 20 years ago. Are you paying 17x more for goods and services than you were then? No, you are not, so money supply is not relevant to your daily life, and that’s why it’s not used as the ‘definition of inflation’.

  22. #22197
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    Quote Originally Posted by doebedoe View Post
    So you just decide your definition of "inflation" is the correct "Fact"?

    The Federal reserve's basic defintion has fuck all to due with monetary supply: "Inflation is the increase in the prices of goods and services over time."

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14419.htm
    CS:

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  23. #22198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles View Post
    I go some new toys (used) with some
    Were the toys business related? I can't believe the money was simply given with zero strings attached, but I guess I should know better. This is America, after all.

  24. #22199
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    Were the toys business related? I can't believe the money was simply given with zero strings attached, but I guess I should know better. This is America, after all.
    My company made a pitch to “audit” the PPP loans using non-accountant staff. I had significant concerns about the approach and that it wasn’t robust enough / would result in rubber stamping the forgiveness with minimal documentation. We were proposing a cost per loan of a couple hundred $ which was outrageously low. Then the Feds just forgave them all by allowing the lenders to determine if they should be forgiven.

  25. #22200
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    WTF. No. That is no one who means anything’s definition of inflation.

    What measure of monetary supply are you using anyway? M1 is up over 17x from 20 years ago. Are you paying 17x more for goods and services than you were then? No, you are not, so money supply is not relevant to your daily life, and that’s why it’s not used as the ‘definition of inflation’.
    Other than a few folks I know to be actual economists with impressive PhD's to match on here, I just assume no one knows what they're talking about in regards to financial markets and economic theory as even I'm rusty as shit these days and there are a LOT of complex factors at work.

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