Real Estate Crash thread

[muted]

In the battle to be daddy's second favorite son, Eric and Don Jr are engaged in an arms race of idiocy.

I think it's calculated manipulating of the masses.

[Ted Striker]

O not making this political, the states that have opened, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Montana etc. it’s been a couple of weeks. Any uptick in deaths or anything. I’m trying to remain rational, because if seeing more positive cases doesn’t mean hospitals are overflowing and refrigerated trucks for morgues are stacked up, perhaps Sweden had it right. I just don’t know at this point.

Yes, (first story on google today, but are lots of others with the same gist) but they don't know whether the uptick in cases is the result of reopening, or a reflection of the increased numbers of tests being performed. (probably both)

[Ted Striker]

@ muted, I think you're right, but the two aren't mutually exclusive.

[The AD]

I'd think we're probably going to need at least a couple more weeks of data before we can determine the effect states opening back up has had.

[frorider]

Funding from lender came thru on that 2.99/15 yr. hope others here in or getting into refi mode have a similarly quick and easy experience.

[Ted Striker]

Maybe 50/50 ratio of masks. People standing within a foot of the person in front of them.

There were thousands of people at the local parks. Lots of people driving to town from Lakewood or Aurora or wherever the fuck to mountain bike or road bike and walk around. Almost no masks outside of restaurants.

Neighbors all over the neighborhood are grilling out with 20-30 people. No masks. Everyone is over the lockdown.

Yep, going to get stocked up before Memorial weekend. Folks are going to be itching to get in their RV, camper vans, and load up the family and get out of town. And guess what, the number of DUI's went up this weekend. No surprise there. People jonesing for a few drinks and a drive.

...And almost no one wearing masks anymore.

I'm seeing the same things here. The number of people wearing masks has been declining as well.

What really surprises me is some of the most cavalier attitudes on display are from people who would have multiple comorbidites.

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised if people near retirement in the big cities start looking for a house in or near mountain towns.

Yeah, I said something similar upthread, and still think it's true. People with money (who weren't dumb enough to lose it) will have outsized spending power. If the things that make a big city what it is no longer exist, why stay?

[Deebased]

I'm seeing the same things here. The number of people wearing masks has been declining as well.

What really surprises me is some of the most cavalier attitudes on display are from people who would have multiple comorbidites.



Yeah, I said something similar upthread, and still think it's true. People with money (who weren't dumb enough to lose it) will have outsized spending power. If the things that make a big city what it is no longer exist, why stay?

half a million of the pretty to very wealthy have left NYC.

In a city with 1M millionaires, half are gone.

Wondering why the streets of Manhattan are empty? 8% of your city has left for greener pastures.

[muted]

@ muted, I think you're right, but the two aren't mutually exclusive.

ha, true.

[dunfree]

O not making this political, the states that have opened, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Montana etc. it’s been a couple of weeks. Any uptick in deaths or anything. I’m trying to remain rational, because if seeing more positive cases doesn’t mean hospitals are overflowing and refrigerated trucks for morgues are stacked up, perhaps Sweden had it right. I just don’t know at this point.

How much is actually reopened and business as normal? Politicians have been really quick to declare things “reopened” but I’ve not seen follow up to what actually opened. Take Texas where at least in the press I read some restaurants were reopening w/distancing, some were just doing takeout still (made more $) and some were staying closed.

[Mazderati]

Walking around a small downtown area the last few days, the number of people wearing masks is counted on one hand out of hundreds. People outside and inside restaurants. Parents, grandparents, kids. Denial or obliviousness, it's like nothing is happening.

I enjoy big city life. There is a hum and sense of potential. Walk to hundreds of places and ride to thousands more. Covfefe will pass although attitudes may not which is more concerning. My longer-term plan to return is unchanged for now.

[Core Shot]

This is what flattening the curve was about.
Just enough restrictions to slow the spread, but not kill the golden goose of commerce.

We pounded the mound. We might have to pound it again. But we can get through this if they don’t bankrupt all the small biz and restaurants first.

[The AD]

My BIL has been obsessed with building a small office building on an empty lot next to his small law office to generate income. He’s thinking a four-office suite. He was about to pull the trigger and start permitting when COVID hit. He still wants to go forward. He’s 52, in a large city full of soon-to-be-empty office space; no way he’s gonna get an ROI in the black before he retires, if ever.

Stay tuned, this could be an epic “warning to others” event.

I've been watching the Ric Burns "New York" documentary while I've been working out and the part I watched last night was about the Empire State Building. Construction started at the end of 1929, right at the same time as the stock market crash. By any measure it was an incredible project and the construction was remarkable, but when the building opened something like 50 of the 85 floors had no tenants. In the early years it got the nickname the "Empty State Building." The building was not an economic success until the '50s.

[XXX-er]

I'm seeing the same things here. The number of people wearing masks has been declining as well.

What really surprises me is some of the most cavalier attitudes on display are from people who would have multiple comorbidites.



Yeah, I said something similar upthread, and still think it's true. People with money (who weren't dumb enough to lose it) will have outsized spending power. If the things that make a big city what it is no longer exist, why stay?

yup, the mind set, the things that compromised them health wise could kill them this time


Somewhat like 2007 but times it by 5 money wise some people will lose their shit big time and they will basically just be giving it to the people who hung on to their money ... the perfect storm for the saver

gona be lots of bidnesses go under, lots of restaurants

due to spending months in lockdown/ money issues ( # 1 reason for divorce ) watch for the divorce rate to spike

[Ski220]

more cars with N.Y. license plates in town over the weekend then normal.
Were they out here to see Mom and Pop? Looking for someplace to move to?
Sure as shit they are packing the town parks parking lots AND NOT WEARING MASKS! F them! Time to start requiring resident park permits at all the parks, not just the beaches.

Although, if someone offers me enough, I just might sell.

[Toadman]

more cars with N.Y. license plates in town over the weekend then normal.
Were they out here to see Mom and Pop? Looking for someplace to move to?
Sure as shit they are packing the town parks parking lots AND NOT WEARING MASKS! F them! Time to start requiring resident park permits at all the parks, not just the beaches.

Although, if someone offers me enough, I just might sell.

dude! Don't be a sell out!

[The AD]

more cars with N.Y. license plates in town over the weekend then normal.
Were they out here to see Mom and Pop? Looking for someplace to move to?
Sure as shit they are packing the town parks parking lots AND NOT WEARING MASKS! F them! Time to start requiring resident park permits at all the parks, not just the beaches.

How do you know it was the New Yorkers who weren't wearing masks?

[Benny Profane]

I've been watching the Ric Burns "New York" documentary while I've been working out and the part I watched last night was about the Empire State Building. Construction started at the end of 1929, right at the same time as the stock market crash. By any measure it was an incredible project and the construction was remarkable, but when the building opened something like 50 of the 85 floors had no tenants. In the early years it got the nickname the "Empty State Building." The building was not an economic success until the '50s.

Of course, the flip side to that is some of these mega high priced condo towers in NYC coming on line right now and the near future maybe selling well to the international uber wealthy who easily survived this and got bailed out and supported with public money. Like the insane stock market right now.

[The AD]

Of course, the flip side to that is some of these mega high priced condo towers in NYC coming on line right now and the near future maybe selling well to the international uber wealthy who easily survived this and got bailed out and supported with public money. Like the insane stock market right now.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on the real estate market to struggle in NYC, especially Manhattan, for too long. Everyone knows it will be a good long term investment with a high amount of certainty.

[iceman]

more cars with N.Y. license plates in town over the weekend then normal.
Were they out here to see Mom and Pop? Looking for someplace to move to?
Sure as shit they are packing the town parks parking lots AND NOT WEARING MASKS! F them! Time to start requiring resident park permits at all the parks, not just the beaches.

Although, if someone offers me enough, I just might sell.

What town? Just curious.

[iceman]

Yeah, I wouldn't count on the real estate market to struggle in NYC, especially Manhattan, for too long. Everyone knows it will be a good long term investment with a high amount of certainty.

If substantial amounts of office space gets converted to housing it might put a damper on that.

[Svengali]

Securities that contain loans for properties like hotels and office buildings have inflated profits, the whistleblower claims. As the pandemic hammers the economy, that could increase the chances of another mortgage collapse.
The fraud during the financial crisis of 2008 was in residential mortgages, the complaint claims this time it’s happening in commercial properties like office buildings, apartment complexes and retail centers, according to a previously unreported whistleblower complaint submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission last year.

[Benny Profane]

If substantial amounts of office space gets converted to housing it might put a damper on that.

Manhattan is fucked, unless they open museums and bars and restaraunts and museums and stadiums. What else is there to do?

[Name Redacted]

Manhattan is fucked, unless they open museums and bars and restaraunts and museums and stadiums. What else is there to do?

That's a lot of museums.

[Toadman]

If substantial amounts of office space gets converted to housing it might put a damper on that.

I've always fancied having a nice corner unit on a high floor in the Met-Life bldg. or even the Chrysler Bldg.

[Mazderati]

Talk of converting part of the Chrysler Building into a hotel were going on about this time last year. Haven't seen any update. Maybe condos, too.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nyc-s-ch...ners-1.1227817