Real Estate Crash thread

[schuss]

Kids cost 20+ years in taxes, so the easy route is to attract rich retirees/luxury stuff that has a much better person/tax revenue/area ratio. Most communities here play chicken with letting others pick up the density for working/middle class while they focus on luxury condos and dispersed developments.

[californiagrown]

All true. Keep those dirty unwashed breeders away from good tax paying citizens.

With WFH being more of a thing going forward, that's a lot of tax base that could be evaporating from cities, so they will be looking even harder at the financial implications of future projects i think. It will be interesting to see what the financial/economic shifts are that come from the pandemic in 5 years.

[Bunion 2020]

Meanwhile in the Really Big:

A new program in Big Sky is offering landlords up to $14,500 to convert vacation rentals or seasonal homes into long-term rentals amid a shortage of available and affordable housing.

The Big Sky Community Housing Trust, a nonprofit that aims to address the town’s housing crisis, kicked off the “Cash for Leases” program on Aug. 1.

The program is funded by donations from the Spanish Peaks Community Foundation and through the area’s resort tax. The nonprofit plans to spend about $110,000 to convince homeowners to rent to locals long-term.

“We’re trying to get creative,” said the nonprofit’s executive director Laura Seyfang.

The housing and wealth disparity in Big Sky has grown. From July 2020 to July 2021 the median price of a single-family home spiked by 111% to about $2.9 million in the greater Big Sky area, according to data from the Gallatin Association of Realtors. The median price for condos and townhomes was nearly $1 million this July, a 47% increase from July 2020.

The average monthly rent in Big Sky is $1,200 per bedroom and there’s virtually no long-term vacancy, while the median income for a four person household was about $88,900, according to the nonprofit.

“People call me when they’re losing their house. I’ve sure had a lot of that this summer,” Seyfang said. “I don’t have enough solutions for them.”

The housing trust has worked to convince owners of the some 1,200 vacation rentals in Big Sky to rent long-term to local residents, offering up inexpensive property management services and background checks for renters.

“We tried to take away the excuses and concerns to rent local,” Seyfang said.

Through that program about 14 housing units were converted from vacation rentals to long-term residences, she said.

But Big Sky needs about 655 more houses by 2023 to address the current housing shortfall, according to the nonprofit.

“The reality is that people can make more money renting short-term than they can to long-term locals,” Seyfang said.

The housing trust estimated that homeowners make on average about $7,000 more annually on short-term rentals than by renting long-term.

The program aims to match that in the hopes that more homeowners will rent to residents. A portion of the fund will also go to landlords who commit to renewing long-term leases for locals.

The program will give eligible homeowners — who sign leases with locals —$1,500 for a new 6-month lease, $6,750 for a new or renewed one-year lease and $14,500 for a new two-year lease.

In its first two weeks about three homeowners have expressed interest in the program, Seyfang said. She hopes the program grows and more homeowners consider renting to locals.

“This is a big problem and it’s going to take a lot of different people to work together to find a solution,” she said.

[wooley12]

With WFH being more of a thing going forward, that's a lot of tax base that could be evaporating from cities, so they will be looking even harder at the financial implications of future projects i think. It will be interesting to see what the financial/economic shifts are that come from the pandemic in 5 years.

My nephew makes a good living remodeling subsidized housing (The Projects) in NYC. Maybe we'll have to tax the rich. Nah, not gonna happen.

[Benny Profane]

I just have to laugh when I see Black Lives Matter and other racism is bad lawn signs every now and then in my very upscale suburban CT. town. I imagine they were put there when the correct thinking but very naive children of the homeowners insisted. They don't realize that towns like this owe their whole existence to racism, and their parents would take up arms if "affordable housing" was constructed anywhere near that lawn.

[rideit]

Meanwhile in the Really Big:

The problem with this program is that I’m sure the homeowners want to use the property for 3-6 weeks every year, too. STR’s make that easy. Full time residents would be a bit more complicated, I would think. But I wish them luck.

[Toadman]

All true. Keep those dirty unwashed breeders away from good tax paying citizens.

Agreed. Put them next to the dirty rich billionaires who pay no taxes. Those two groups deserve each other.

[Core Shot]

Interesting LTR idea in big sky.

But the only real solution is new construction deed restricted apartments

No STR. No turning condo. Worker housing.

And market rate. But one year lease.
If the market lease gets too high, build some more.

I’ve seen more than a few lottery houses that house deadbeats that coast through life. It’s not fair to the hard working class.

[wooley12]

Agreed. Put them next to the dirty rich billionaires who pay no taxes. Those two groups deserve each other.

That would be Medina. Bill Gates hood. The town didn't have enough money to hire life guards for the public beach.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Meanwhile in the Really Big:

Multiple seasons of shit-fuck snowfall like Tahoe experienced is the only hope.

[Benny Profane]

Good article in the NYT all about the insanity of New Jersey shore development. Hope you can read it.

The Long, Slow Drowning of the New Jersey Shore https://nyti.ms/3yI4IaH

[panchosdad]

Meanwhile in the Really Big:

That's a good incentive, hope it works.

[Toadman]

This is what a starter home in Seattle goes for these days. Good grief. Interesting to look at the progression on the sales history.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/63...5fbnVtYmVyPTA=

[JayPowHound]

Up 20k from 2005 to 2014.

Up 378k from 2014 to 2021.

Holy shit.

[dan_pdx]

This is what a starter home in Seattle goes for these days. Good grief. Interesting to look at the progression on the sales history.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/63...5fbnVtYmVyPTA=

Whoa, this is a starter house? I mean it's kind of weird that they apparently moved the washer/dryer from the bathroom to out in the open in a bedroom (?), but otherwise, that house looks pretty great to me.

[sirbumpsalot]

Up 20k from 2005 to 2014.

Up 378k from 2014 to 2021.

Holy shit.

And $238,000 from 1998 to 2014.....thats +200%.

Not so shocking now is it?

[JayPowHound]

But "Year Built Effective" is 2003. I don't think this is the same house that sold for 112k in '98

[Ted Striker]

Cease to resist, prices are sky high
Drive my car down Rainier
You'll think I'm dead, but I sail away
On a wave of gentrification
A wave of gentrification
Wave of gentrification
Wave
Wave

[liv2ski]

Whoa, this is a starter house? I mean it's kind of weird that they apparently moved the washer/dryer from the bathroom to out in the open in a bedroom (?), but otherwise, that house looks pretty great to me.

That isn't a starter home. They are fishing for down sizers from ? Thing is, if you could buy it for $795k, with 20% down the PITI is still $4,100 a month Surely you could rent it for less or are rents that much there?

[dan_pdx]

That isn't a starter home. They are fishing for down sizers from ? Thing is, if you could buy it for $795k, with 20% down the PITI is still $4,100 a month Surely you could rent it for less or are rents that much there?

A Seattle mag will have more context, but I've looked at some rentals in Seattle just in case the whole Bellingham thing doesn't work out, and $4k doesn't seem out of the question as rent for that house. I've seen some pretty grim stuff in the $3k range.

[abraham]

I saw what I think said '2 bed, 1 bath studio for 3,300' recently while driving to a friend's place. I'm guessing it's an ADU?

[muted reborn]

That isn't a starter home. They are fishing for down sizers from ? Thing is, if you could buy it for $795k, with 20% down the PITI is still $4,100 a month Surely you could rent it for less or are rents that much there?

There is the home shown, and then there is also a separate rental unit with a small kitchen and it's own bathroom on that property. It's not clear in the listing but that's two rental units shown.

[Ted Striker]

I think the reason it's a little vague in the listing is that it's probably an illegal ADU.

[Conundrum]

Rentals in my neighborhood, the very few LTRs that pop up, seem to be going for $3-3,500/mo for decent 3b/2b, 1,800 sqft. Tons of STRs available whenever needed.

[alpinevibes]

This is what a starter home in Seattle goes for these days. Good grief. Interesting to look at the progression on the sales history.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/63...5fbnVtYmVyPTA=

Cute and quaint but man that's some coin.

My brother closed on his "cottage house" in a 22 cottage neighborhood in Shoreline: 2bd, 1.5ba, 1000sq ft for $420k. Not really cute or quaint, but very affordable and not a condo. That's hard to find but much more fitting for a "starter home"