Real Estate Crash thread

[carpathian]

I see the old Carpathian ski factory which was on that road the name of which rhymes with Vagina has a sold sign

that's weird because it has not been listed just yet. That is a can of worms selling that thing, most likely gonna hang on to it forever

[XXX-er]

that's weird because it has not been listed just yet. That is a can of worms selling that thing, most likely gonna hang on to it forever

well I may have been misteaken but i seen the MLS sign with a sold sticker on the highway heading out of town so i checked again on the way back in and it sure looked like your place (2nd lot in )

it sure would be a good time to sell cuz town is full of tatooed/ blunstone/ carhart wearing folks with shit in their face so everything is stupid high

it may have also been in a parallel universe

[carpathian]

I think it was the lot right behind ours on the highway that just sold.

And yeah Option A has been jumping at me. It is tough thinking expansion mode vs conservation mode when it come to the various layers of civilization peeling back. High interest rates plus inflation plus high food plus high gas etc could all conspire to kill real estate market but like many of you have said it feels bloated and a bit of a correction would not be bad.

I just get paranoid about correcting back to the Stone Age and i'll just wish I had ammo and eggs, which I can still do!

[neufox47]

JI II
And yeah Option A has been jumping at me. It is tough thinking expansion mode vs conservation mode when it come to the various layers of civilization peeling back. High interest rates plus inflation plus high food plus high gas etc could all conspire to kill real estate market but like many of you have said it feels bloated and a bit of a correction would not be bad.

I just get paranoid about correcting back to the Stone Age and i'll just wish I had ammo and eggs, which I can still do!

How much does paying $7-$11k a year of interest hurt you?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Mustonen]

WWMD?

I am building a 1000 sqft house in Hawaii right now am $50k in out of pocket (permits, dirt work, septic, in ground plumbing, slab and first floor framing).

As of a couple days ago I was approved for a $70k Heloc on my Alaska house to be used to finish construction. Once the place is done it will be worth around $600k in current state of this real estate 'bubble'.

At that point I was planning on pulling $300k mortgage or so on the new house, paying off the Heloc and then throwing down on either more raw Hawaii land on which to build another house or maybe go simple and buy a duplex or triplex in Anchorage... trying to create options.

The crux of the matter is that the Heloc is at 4.5% right now and apparently it is is non-fixed and can go all the way up to 18% if the market dictates, which scares the hell out of me!

A) take Heloc, double down on building faster then interest rates material cost rise and lock into fixed rate by Jan 2023

B) don't take Heloc, continue out of pocket slow and painful, maybe done by Jan 2024

C) take Heloc, crank out house, sell for $600k asap, 1031 into something else, buy gold , BTC etc...

D) sell Hawaii now, buy more chickens and ammo in Alaska, hunker down

E) ?

I can sign for the Heloc tomorrow

A. Your HELOC rate is likely set to prime with a floor of 4.50% or a margin of prime plus .50%? In either case, prime is typically fed funds plus 3%, and fed funds is gonna go up, but should level out around 3-4% in 2023-2024. Maybe. That puts you at 6-7% which is not horrible. You might take a gander at how quickly your HELOC rate can rise, too, per the contract. I’ve seen everything from unlimited to 1% per quarter to 1% per year.

[Core Shot]

Rates can’t go too high.
30 trillion hard debt can’t be serviced.

Yes. Some older friends had 14% mortgage rates. That cannot happen. Unless the overlords are ready to kill the US dollar.

The Hawaii build sounds like a great deal. Even if value corrects negative 20% it’s still a good investment.

Build it off the heloc. Or pledge the equity as security for a fixed rate construction then long term mortgage

[RoooR]

Rates can’t go too high.
30 trillion hard debt can’t be serviced.

The biggest difference between now and the 70s. 30 trillion is 300 billion a year in servicing costs for every 1%. Now looks more like the post war 40s. Debt / GDP is super close. Back then they let inflation run hot.

[panchosdad]

WWMD?

I am building a 1000 sqft house in Hawaii right now am $50k in out of pocket (permits, dirt work, septic, in ground plumbing, slab and first floor framing).

As of a couple days ago I was approved for a $70k Heloc on my Alaska house to be used to finish construction. Once the place is done it will be worth around $600k in current state of this real estate 'bubble'.

At that point I was planning on pulling $300k mortgage or so on the new house, paying off the Heloc and then throwing down on either more raw Hawaii land on which to build another house or maybe go simple and buy a duplex or triplex in Anchorage... trying to create options.

The crux of the matter is that the Heloc is at 4.5% right now and apparently it is is non-fixed and can go all the way up to 18% if the market dictates, which scares the hell out of me!

A) take Heloc, double down on building faster then interest rates material cost rise and lock into fixed rate by Jan 2023

B) don't take Heloc, continue out of pocket slow and painful, maybe done by Jan 2024

C) take Heloc, crank out house, sell for $600k asap, 1031 into something else, buy gold , BTC etc...

D) sell Hawaii now, buy more chickens and ammo in Alaska, hunker down

E) ?

I can sign for the Heloc tomorrow

E) Sell Alaska house, go move to Hawaii.

[fastfred]

Yeah so half of these "cash buyers" are actually manipulated the system buy using pretend equity in a housing market run up using cash out refi helocs and other fancy low interest stuff they have "cash" to invest somewhere else on something else

Sounds like a great idea have had people smarter than me advise me to do the same thing

No thanks don't need to be holding the bag with my pants around my ankles next year

2008 can't happen again? Same thing different product we being sold this time

Get ready if you played that game get out before its too late much safer to have 20k in cash stashed in all different places right now than playing investor property tycoon w helocs

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk

[Core Shot]

Read a piece today from a respected local economist who basically argues that governments may want to let inflation run hot because it shrinks the size of the debt through nominal GDP growth. He argued that higher inflation means higher taxes by stealth, eventually leading to a larger revenue base to service the debt without the pesky issue of raising taxes.

For my part of the world, it means that mining companies end up paying more company tax on larger profits, consumers end up paying more goods and services tax because the price of goods is higher so while the tax % remained unchanged the $ amount collected is larger, and, despite the continuing fall in real wages, we end up with higher income tax collections as whatever wage rise workers do get pushes them into higher tax brackets or otherwise raises their average tax rate.

The massive debt all of a sudden ain’t so massive.

Agree about inflation. That’s how you solve the debt.
Been thinking that for a few decades now.

But you can’t hike rates too much. Or the debt can’t be serviced

I’m not afraid of rates. It’s a nut punch. But it won’t go crazy high until it’s time to bankrupt the dollar.
At which point we are all fucked.

[Toadman]

I'm always blown away how much Cali RE goes for. Somehow got on a Redfin chain for SoCal RE, and this gem came up. Even looking at the past sales history on this home is impressive.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Pa...9uX251bWJlcj0w

[Core Shot]

$2,160 a sq ft

Such a deal!!

[Toadman]

WWMD?

I am building a 1000 sqft house in Hawaii right now am $50k in out of pocket (permits, dirt work, septic, in ground plumbing, slab and first floor framing).

As of a couple days ago I was approved for a $70k Heloc on my Alaska house to be used to finish construction. Once the place is done it will be worth around $600k in current state of this real estate 'bubble'.

At that point I was planning on pulling $300k mortgage or so on the new house, paying off the Heloc and then throwing down on either more raw Hawaii land on which to build another house or maybe go simple and buy a duplex or triplex in Anchorage... trying to create options.

The crux of the matter is that the Heloc is at 4.5% right now and apparently it is is non-fixed and can go all the way up to 18% if the market dictates, which scares the hell out of me!

A) take Heloc, double down on building faster then interest rates material cost rise and lock into fixed rate by Jan 2023

B) don't take Heloc, continue out of pocket slow and painful, maybe done by Jan 2024

C) take Heloc, crank out house, sell for $600k asap, 1031 into something else, buy gold , BTC etc...

D) sell Hawaii now, buy more chickens and ammo in Alaska, hunker down

E) ?

I can sign for the Heloc tomorrow

I would go with option A like most have said. Where you building? Big Island? That's the only place where there's more land being created these days. (Wouldn't want to build near any of those lava paths though!)

Always interesting to see what costs are to build in other states. I was out way over $100k for permits, excavation and the plans before they even started to poor a slab, let alone framing. I can't imagine the cost of lumber in HA right now.

[muted reborn]

I'm always blown away how much Cali RE goes for. Somehow got on a Redfin chain for SoCal RE, and this gem came up. Even looking at the past sales history on this home is impressive.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Pa...9uX251bWJlcj0w

I've been in that neighborhood and and hiking trails above it are decent with spectacular views looking south and also you are really close to the ocean. If you can avoid going downtown to work and mainly stay in your hood (avoiding the interstate gridlock) this is LA living at it's best. And there are so many fucking rich people around LA that could afford this.

So yeah it's a lot per square feet for dipshits like Core Shot to comment on without thinking of the why, and maybe it's actually only worth $2.5 or $3 mill I wouldn't know, but the quiet easy relaxed LA lifestyle of this neighborhood is what everyone wants down there. It's like buying a small apartment in NYC in a good location - outrageously expensive, sure, but it ain't Jersey and bonus you have a small yard, the ocean and a trail system real close.

[4matic]

If you can afford the lifestyle that’s a great house and location.

[Supermoon]

If you can afford the lifestyle that’s a great house and location.

Yeah, but you could a 10 bed/six bath mcMansion in the exurbs of Indianapolis for that!

[4matic]

Yeah, but you could a 10 bed/six bath mcMansion in the exurbs of Indianapolis for that!

No beach but a country club. I like CC of Indy and Meridian CC. Pacific Palisades CC is just ok..

[carpathian]

I would go with option A like most have said. Where you building? Big Island? That's the only place where there's more land being created these days. (Wouldn't want to build near any of those lava paths though!)

Always interesting to see what costs are to build in other states. I was out way over $100k for permits, excavation and the plans before they even started to poor a slab, let alone framing. I can't imagine the cost of lumber in HA right now.

I'm down on south end of Kona District, Captain Cook area. We near 1925 and 1919 lava flows not the newer stuff , but geologically speaking...

2x4 $10
2x6 $13
1/2" ply $55
3/4" ply $105
5/8" T111 $150

[Core Shot]

Ten dollah per stud

Dayuuum

[sirbumpsalot]

I'm always blown away how much Cali RE goes for. Somehow got on a Redfin chain for SoCal RE, and this gem came up. Even looking at the past sales history on this home is impressive.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Pa...9uX251bWJlcj0w

Ah, but you are a couple blocks from Will Rodgers Park, the backbone, and a whole world of Santa Ana's fun MTN BIKE action! Thats worth $3M+

[Toadman]

I've been in that neighborhood and and hiking trails above it are decent with spectacular views looking south and also you are really close to the ocean. If you can avoid going downtown to work and mainly stay in your hood (avoiding the interstate gridlock) this is LA living at it's best. And there are so many fucking rich people around LA that could afford this.

So yeah it's a lot per square feet for dipshits like Core Shot to comment on without thinking of the why, and maybe it's actually only worth $2.5 or $3 mill I wouldn't know, but the quiet easy relaxed LA lifestyle of this neighborhood is what everyone wants down there. It's like buying a small apartment in NYC in a good location - outrageously expensive, sure, but it ain't Jersey and bonus you have a small yard, the ocean and a trail system real close.

That makes sense. I had a former co-worker who bought something similar back in the 70's in Orange County. Nice suburb in Orange county not too far from Newport. Close to LGB. I bet that house would go for over $3 million now. Nice retirement nest egg if you ever need to pull the plug. It explains a lot of the all cash offers I see from Cali folks moving up to Central Oregon.

The craziest story for me is someone from North San Diego who sold her place for a few million that she bought back in 2000. Bought a condo, all cash in a gated golf community, and decided that wasn't the lifestyle she wanted after just 12 months. Sells that condo for $100k more than she paid for it, drops a million for a semi-custom home, and then decides to sell that after 2 years because the city of Bend decided to build 100 homes on 20 acres behind her house. Makes about $400k in capital gains, and builds another full custom home in another gated community w/o the threat of any more crazy developments going in, because there's no developable land in that community. It's like no big deal to just buy and sell in this market and keep making bank. Nuts!

[shroom]

the great social mobility of america

[dunfree]

I'm always blown away how much Cali RE goes for. Somehow got on a Redfin chain for SoCal RE, and this gem came up. Even looking at the past sales history on this home is impressive.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Pa...9uX251bWJlcj0w

have you looked at other real estate in pacific palisades? Multiple 8-figure listings. There’s a $5.5 million 5 bed two blocks away. Pacific Palisades is megapolis trophy zip code

[rideit]

I'm down on south end of Kona District, Captain Cook area. We near 1925 and 1919 lava flows not the newer stuff , but geologically speaking...

2x4 $10
2x6 $13
1/2" ply $55
3/4" ply $105
5/8" T111 $150

There’s a really good taco place near you, that’s gotta be worth a bunch!

[Toadman]

have you looked at other real estate in pacific palisades? Multiple 8-figure listings. There’s a $5.5 million 5 bed two blocks away. Pacific Palisades is megapolis trophy zip code

Drove through there once. Ended up watching Penn and Teller drive by doing some skit with a car loaded on a trailer. Definitely a nice 'hood. No desire to live there though even if I could afford to.