Real Estate Crash thread

[AdironRider]

Hah! The e-bikes and ironic Bernie stickers are definite parts of the ensemble. I'm also partial to the "start-ups" that are really just them buying condos from the trust fund and putting them on airbnb. They've revolutionized the STR market with game changing tech, which is that they have developed an employee to list them on airbnb for them.

[Kevo]

Ahh the life cycle of a ski town trust funder.

Early life: They rock a 15 year old Outback adorned with a new pair of skis and a 5k+ mountain bike. They maybe wait a couple tables or take some tourists down a river. After a year or two there is a culling of the herd when parents call the kids back for the pilgrimage to Daddy's firm back east, with a probable stop along the way for grad school. This eliminates about 95% of them. Tough to survive the wrath of large family guilt.

Mid Life: For the black sheep of the family, the next couple years are filled with river adventures, maybe a trip or two to "Japow", lots of trips to Fruita or Moab, all the while telling their friends they can only afford to do so because they work "really hard" catering couple nights a week in the summer. The rest are aspiring photographers claiming a pittance income so they can weasel into affordable housing and not have to deal with Karl, the busboy roommate. This lasts about a decade.

Adult life: A mistake was made and they impregnated the ski town 7 that bunked down with them for the winter. Thankfully, said 7 is well taken care of financially also. Here is where the ski town trust funder really comes into bloom as there is no way the grandkids can be driving around in something unsafe or living in squalor. That outback is sold, the affordable apartment is gone, and all of a sudden a new Volvo for Mom and a Tacoma or Tundra for Dad, fully kitted out for their "expeditions" down a dirt road to go fishing. They are shopping houses for over a million, and have transitioned careers to either occasional Realtor or non-profit board member, or if they really made it, "philanthropist". These old growth trust funders then donate large sums of their parents money to causes such as dental care for the pigmy shrew, the local ski team, or any other non-important foundation their friends run.

End life: A second or third home is purchased someplace warm with better access to medical care. "Summer" becomes a verb. Their own offspring have left long ago, and as the third generation will most likely squander any remaining cash on blow in NYC over a couple years.

This is so fucking spot on it's incredible. Don't forget the mid-life stage of the female trust funder where she hosts yoga retreats for other "successful" female entrepreneurs and speaks at local knock of TED talk events about female empowerment and gender inequality. Must have been tough that one summer where she pretended to earn a living working two days a week at the local preschool.

[fastfred]

Ahh the life cycle of a ski town trust funder.

Early life: They rock a 15 year old Outback adorned with a new pair of skis and a 5k+ mountain bike. They maybe wait a couple tables or take some tourists down a river. After a year or two there is a culling of the herd when parents call the kids back for the pilgrimage to Daddy's firm back east, with a probable stop along the way for grad school. This eliminates about 95% of them. Tough to survive the wrath of large family guilt.

Mid Life: For the black sheep of the family, the next couple years are filled with river adventures, maybe a trip or two to "Japow", lots of trips to Fruita or Moab, all the while telling their friends they can only afford to do so because they work "really hard" catering couple nights a week in the summer. The rest are aspiring photographers claiming a pittance income so they can weasel into affordable housing and not have to deal with Karl, the busboy roommate. This lasts about a decade.

Adult life: A mistake was made and they impregnated the ski town 7 that bunked down with them for the winter. Thankfully, said 7 is well taken care of financially also. Here is where the ski town trust funder really comes into bloom as there is no way the grandkids can be driving around in something unsafe or living in squalor. That outback is sold, the affordable apartment is gone, and all of a sudden a new Volvo for Mom and a Tacoma or Tundra for Dad, fully kitted out for their "expeditions" down a dirt road to go fishing. They are shopping houses for over a million, and have transitioned careers to either occasional Realtor or non-profit board member, or if they really made it, "philanthropist". These old growth trust funders then donate large sums of their parents money to causes such as dental care for the pigmy shrew, the local ski team, or any other non-important foundation their friends run.

End life: A second or third home is purchased someplace warm with better access to medical care. "Summer" becomes a verb. Their own offspring have left long ago, and as the third generation will most likely squander any remaining cash on blow in NYC over a couple years.

jesus dude
getting my dividen check 1st of june heavy six figures this year
got into a fight w the old lady at the begining of the year because she has to plan out her finances with the planner by mid january every year
the amount she wanted to sell back of stock to the family company I thought was too much she didn't need that much on top of her usual monthly checks
who says the economy is bad

[Toadman]

There's a movie script in here somewhere. I can sort of picture the title, 'Aspen Extreme' or something like that....

FWIW, I know a lot of work from home wives, that are killing it on the ski slopes and mtn bike trails in my neighborhood. Putting the hubbies to shame. Must be those 20-40 years of slaving for the man that have taken there toll on the dudes. Let's face facts guys, women are just tougher. I figured that out a loooong time ago.

[frorider]

Do we have any trust funders on here? Please defend your honor. We won’t make fun of you.

[westoxified]

Are you high?

challenges keeping pace?

[bizarrefaith]

Do we have any trust funders on here? Please defend your honor. We won’t make fun of you.

Having spent a good amount of time working with family offices and high net worth families, these people are generally totally oblivious and think they’ve earned everything.


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[Benny Profane]

Well, how is this grand lifestyle for the mountain petit bourgeois going to continue if there's no bars and skiing?

[Toadman]

We'll call your biopic "(LowT)oadman"

nah, way too boring. Needs to be about Two families. The Trust fund family, where the kids drive around in their $150k sports cars and jet around in private jets from one $10 million dollar plus ski chalet to the next. Partying and drinking and doing the latest designer drugs. Then the 2nd family is dirt poor, living in a fixer upper that ain't ever going to get fixed. Driving an 30 year old beater 2WD pickup truck. Poor kid meets rich trust fund kid and falls in love.

The son impregnates the rich kid 7, but he thinks she is a poor man's 10. She gets the poor kid hooked on designer drugs, and rich daddy disowns the rich trust fund daughter and they end up living in a van down by the river. I know, way too cliche'.

[4matic]

But real estate is affordable, which makes me wonder, what is the most ghetto ski town?


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I’d say South Lake Tahoe near the line. All kinds of crazy.

[ncskier]

I’d say South Lake Tahoe near the line. All kinds of crazy.

Ogden takes the crown. I mean we named a scale of ghetto towns after it, or at least tried.

[Benny Profane]

Rutland is a -2 Ogden.

[Flyoverland Captive]

My BIL has been obsessed with building a small office building on an empty lot next to his small law office to generate income. He’s thinking a four-office suite. He was about to pull the trigger and start permitting when COVID hit. He still wants to go forward. He’s 52, in a large city full of soon-to-be-empty office space; no way he’s gonna get an ROI in the black before he retires, if ever.

Stay tuned, this could be an epic “warning to others” event.

[rideit]

probably your best post.

adult life:
gotta work in the customized sprinter, (quickly traded in when the 4x4 version dropped)
and the 6k e-bike kid-hauler coz Snow King Ave traffic sux

But...what about the bollards, maaaan

[Kevo]

STL Fed gdp-cast -48% for Q2
NY Fed gdp-cast -31% for Q2

The problem with this downturn is it's so fast, unexpected and complete that it will take a year or three for people to unpack the severity and adjust expectations. As those expectations adjust, behavior will follow. The leading indicator here is employment, the lagging indicator is popular neighborhood sales.

Those numbers are really bad, but it seems like people are pretty quickly trying to get back to normal.

I went downtown today (Golden CO) to pick up some takeout and there were lines of people out the door at the local deli and Starbucks. Maybe 50/50 ratio of masks. People standing within a foot of the person in front of them.

There were thousands of people at the local parks. Lots of people driving to town from Lakewood or Aurora or wherever the fuck to mountain bike or road bike and walk around. Almost no masks outside of restaurants.

Neighbors all over the neighborhood are grilling out with 20-30 people. No masks. Everyone is over the lockdown.

People are dead set on getting the economy back in track, even if it means a couple million dead grandparents.

If the virus is bad enough to overwhelm hospitals and have people dying in the streets we are certainly going to find out.

[liv2ski]

^^^^^ and that is why I told my wife I am going no where for months, I am waiting for this shit to come raging back. I better go stock up on TP, it is going to be a long year...

[ncskier]

Those numbers are really bad, but it seems like people are pretty quickly trying to get back to normal.

I went downtown today (Golden CO) to pick up some takeout and there were lines of people out the door at the local deli and Starbucks. Maybe 50/50 ratio of masks. People standing within a foot of the person in front of them.

There were thousands of people at the local parks. Lots of people driving to town from Lakewood or Aurora or wherever the fuck to mountain bike or road bike and walk around. Almost no masks outside of restaurants.

Neighbors all over the neighborhood are grilling out with 20-30 people. No masks. Everyone is over the lockdown.

People are dead set on getting the economy back in track, even if it means a couple million dead grandparents.

If the virus is bad enough to overwhelm hospitals and have people dying in the streets we are certainly going to find out.

O not making this political, the states that have opened, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Montana etc. it’s been a couple of weeks. Any uptick in deaths or anything. I’m trying to remain rational, because if seeing more positive cases doesn’t mean hospitals are overflowing and refrigerated trucks for morgues are stacked up, perhaps Sweden had it right. I just don’t know at this point.

[MarcusBrody]

O not making this political, the states that have opened, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Montana etc. it’s been a couple of weeks. Any uptick in deaths or anything. I’m trying to remain rational, because if seeing more positive cases doesn’t mean hospitals are overflowing and refrigerated trucks for morgues are stacked up, perhaps Sweden had it right. I just don’t know at this point.

Deaths lag cases by a few weeks so its really too early to tell. It also would in theory take a bit of time for case increases to multiply.

Sweden's death rate is much higher than comparable neighboring countries like Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Its strategy seems to lead to more deaths, though if you set the bar for success as anything short of using refrigerator trucks for morgues, then it might be the better strategy to minimize other disruptions.

[Benny Profane]

There may be something to this warmer weather will impede the virus spread thing. Florida seems to be OK, relatively speaking. Good luck in October.

[liv2ski]

I read an article today that estimated 15% of all home owners are presently delinquent. If that holds up, that is far more potential foreclosures than in the 2008/2010 implosion. I honestly do not know how government can tell lenders to offer forbearance when all these loans are sliced and diced into MBS mortgage backed securities and the servicers have to make the monthly payments. Pretty soon, the servicers will go under if they don't get paid. If that happens, the mortgage industry will be really fucked up with no one to buy servicing from new origination's.

[Toadman]

^^^^^ and that is why I told my wife I am going no where for months, I am waiting for this shit to come raging back. I better go stock up on TP, it is going to be a long year...

Yep, going to get stocked up before Memorial weekend. Folks are going to be itching to get in their RV, camper vans, and load up the family and get out of town. And guess what, the number of DUI's went up this weekend. No surprise there. People jonesing for a few drinks and a drive.

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised if people near retirement in the big cities start looking for a house in or near mountain towns. And almost no one wearing masks anymore.

[Deebased]

I read an article today that estimated 15% of all home owners are presently delinquent. If that holds up, that is far more potential foreclosures than in the 2008/2010 implosion. I honestly do not know how government can tell lenders to offer forbearance when all these loans are sliced and diced into MBS mortgage backed securities and the servicers have to make the monthly payments. Pretty soon, the servicers will go under if they don't get paid. If that happens, the mortgage industry will be really fucked up with no one to buy servicing from new origination's.

And which govt. The lack of leadership on this topic alone makes the C19 response seems downright palatable.

About 40% of my long term renters have missed rent in the last 2 months.

Do I direct payment requests to Inslee or to the Seattle city council? .

[Toadman]

There may be something to this warmer weather will impede the virus spread thing. Florida seems to be OK, relatively speaking. Good luck in October.

October could be bad, but after Nov. 3rd no one will be talking about COVID-19. Just ask Eric Trump.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...in/5209815002/

"You watch, they'll milk it every single day between now and Nov. 3. And guess what, after Nov. 3, coronavirus will magically all of a sudden go away and disappear and everybody will be able to reopen," Eric Trump said.

[Ted Striker]

In the battle to be daddy's second favorite son, Eric and Don Jr are engaged in an arms race of idiocy.

[The AD]

There may be something to this warmer weather will impede the virus spread thing. Florida seems to be OK, relatively speaking. Good luck in October.

Plenty of other hot states where cases are still on the rise, though, like Texas and Arizona.