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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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10-16-2019, 11:22 AM #7776
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10-16-2019, 11:26 AM #7777
Benny, what is "going nowhere"?
You don't have to go to Fox Lane or Choate to me a mechanic, realtor, bank manager, business owner, electrician or any other the other professions that can pay the bills in places other than Gross Pointe.
[insert yeah but form Benny attempting to rationalize the lack of feasibility of any time of life choice he has no idea about]
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10-16-2019, 11:29 AM #7778Banned
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10-16-2019, 11:31 AM #7779
My old man was a machinist. I'm working class roots. Don't tell me. And being a noble working person was tough back then, and a fuckload tougher now. Try to retire well after raising a family in your own house today. You can't unless you can save a ton, and that ain't happening with the employment gaps almost all working people experience today. We're pawns, fodder.
And, no way a working person is putting a few kids through college, too. I went to an excellent state school for almost free.
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10-16-2019, 11:54 AM #7780
Yep, two kids. And I don't care what "track" they're on as long as it leads them out of my house and into financial independence. If I had my druthers they'd both be union electricians, but, ya know, they're girls so it's probably not going to happen. Maybe diesel mechanics? Nah. But they can go to the state schools and do just fine, and it's not going to break us to pay for it.
But beyond financial independence, any parent worth a shit will tell you all they really want is for their kids to be happy. I'm sure my parents weren't thrilled when I dropped out of college for 8 years and spent my 20s living out of a van traveling around rock climbing, but they knew I was happy so all they said was "buy health insurance please." And eventually I got my shit together enough to earn a middle class living, and reside in the place where most people want to vacation. But the "work to live, don't live to work" mentality has stayed with me my entire adult life, and I have no regrets. I consider myself pretty lucky actually. Knock on wood.
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10-16-2019, 12:06 PM #7781
Bunny the troll, doesn't understand being a real parent, and fosters his insecurities onto those he sees. A friend's wife is the CFO of one of the biggest banks, she's a working class girl from Trenton.
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10-16-2019, 12:08 PM #7782Hucked to flat once
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I grew up in a lower middle class home in a rural town of 800 people in a poor area of the state with one parent working a low paying job while the other went to college by driving four hours round trip three days a week and worked a low paying job. I went to a state school on my dime with a little bit of help (as much as they could afford) from my folks. According to Pew, I'm now upper class in one of the fastest growing metro areas in the nation. Like Danno, I bought a house cheap and had roommates so I could afford the mortgage 16 years ago. That modest house is in one of the more desirable places in town. I could afford it now but it would certainly impact my fun budget. I also haven't been caught up in living up to my income by upgrading my housing situation by selling up every few years. No kids. Seems like not having kids is a choice too.
I'm from nowhere and feel like I went somewhere. Maybe luck, maybe luck created by work and some sacrifices.
I feel pretty rich (not just financially) and yes, smug.
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10-16-2019, 12:21 PM #7783Registered User
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10-16-2019, 12:27 PM #7784
My central premise is that most of the people people like Adironrider, et al are defining as middle class are, in fact, working class or low class. If we define middle class as a lifestyle and not an income level (comfortably paying a mortgage in an average area, saving for retirement and saving for kids college. Being able to go see a doctor without fear of bankruptcy, having some savings cushion and the hope of upward mobility, etc) then it is entirely possible that only the 80th to the 99th percentile of income earners qualify as such.
Per wikipedia- "The main distinguishing feature of (the upper) class, which is estimated to constitute roughly 1% of the population, is the source of income. While the vast majority of people and households derive their income from wages or salaries, those in the upper class derive their income from investments and capital gains."
Is a household making $250K high earning or "upper income" on a national scale? Yes for sure, as proven by the stats you quoted. Is said household upper class? No, most definitely not. They aren't making major decisions that are shaping the lives of people underneath them in the income hierarchy. Perhaps said household is earning their money in a small business, but more than likely the income earners of said household are at best stewards of an asset for the truly wealthy, e.g. middle managers or even individual contributors at a medium to large corporation.
Quoting a quote from the wikipedia I linked-
"The members of the tiny capitalist class at the top of the hierarchy have an influence on economy and society far beyond their numbers. They make investment decisions that open or close employment opportunities for millions of others. They contribute money to political parties, and they often own media enterprises that allow them influence over the thinking of other classes... The capitalist class strives to perpetuate itself: Assets, lifestyles, values and social networks... are all passed from one generation to the next. –Dennis Gilbert, The American Class Structure, 1998"
You may say "but Kevo, how can the middle class be only those in the 80th to 99th percentile of income? That would make the bottom 80% lower class and only a small percentage of the top 1% upper class!", to which I would reply "Exactly."
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10-16-2019, 01:08 PM #7785Hucked to flat once
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I'm with Kevo. Pew says I'm upper but with a job loss or federal changes in certain industries, I'd be bounced down the ladder rapidly. I've got to work to earn. But then, some would chide me for saying I'm middle class while making over some arbitrary threshold. It's all pretty silly really. There's a leisure class at both ends of the financial spectrum. I like to take part in that class while still being able to fall asleep quickly at night because I have a clean conscience and am not worried about too much.
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10-16-2019, 01:16 PM #7786
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10-16-2019, 01:50 PM #7787
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10-16-2019, 01:52 PM #7788
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10-16-2019, 01:53 PM #7789
I think Benny exaggerates, but there appears to be a pretty clear relationship between geography (at the neighborhood level) and economic opportunity/upward mobility. Here is a good article on the topic (paywalled if you've already read your 5 free Atlantic articles/month)
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10-16-2019, 02:00 PM #7790
Sounds like a lot of "It's not what you make, it's what you keep" going on.
Whatever class $250k/year puts you in, there are a lot of places where that isn't going to be enough to save for retirement, college, and home ownership. Even if you are making that much and are managing your budget to make retirement, college, and home ownership work there's the constant stress of the high paying job going away and... then what?
Data backs up Benny's points about class mobility being increasingly difficult, and worsening in the USA faster than other countries. That doesn't mean we all need to be pessimistic or join in the craziness. Be smarter about spending than status chasers, start a business, protect yourt money fiercely and grow it aggressively. Just because the hill is steep doesn't mean you can't climb over.another Handsome Boy graduate
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10-16-2019, 02:03 PM #7791Registered User
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10-16-2019, 02:05 PM #7792
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10-16-2019, 02:09 PM #7793
My kid graduated last yr with a business degree. Lands a job starting at 40k. His friends with same degree, same school, are making 100k+ in Boston. It bugged him a little, but he surfs before and after work. Flex schedule with a 15 minute commute. The problem is he'll never be able to afford a house in this area. A pos house in a shitty location just sold for 589k in my town. That's just fucking dumb and bullshit. It pisses me off that people will pay that much for a junk house. But I guess they have no options? I don't know I think this whole thing is completely fucking broken.
Sure, I can take care of my kids because we can, but it's not right. It's exactly what Benny is talking about really. Mine will be fine, but so many kids will have a much tougher road and that's just not fair.
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10-16-2019, 02:17 PM #7794
Meh, not a billionaire but you need to be earning your income mostly from assets or you need to be making substantially more than $250k per year.
My perspective- the three cofounders of my company who are each now worth more than $50MM- upper class.
The family that owns my company's parent company who has an investment portfolio worth tens of billions of dollars- upper class.
The CEO of my company's parent company, who is earning >20MM Euros per year- upper class.
Mid level managers at my company earning between $150k and $300k per year and who live in the suburbs, save for retirement, save for their kids to go college, etc who will be able to comfortably retire if they are smart and lucky. Also, most of their spouses work as well- (upper) middle class.
The HVAC tech who is currently diagnosing issues in the building across the street who makes $20/hr and struggles to save for retirement, has credit card debt and who has no ability to save for his kids college- working class or lower class.
The HVAC company owner making $250k per year- middle class.
Any household in Denver metro making less than $100k per year without the hope for upward mobility- working class or lower class
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10-16-2019, 02:19 PM #7795
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10-16-2019, 02:45 PM #7796
What used to be "middle class" from the general understanding, which was a standard of living and not some objective number, now seems to require an income (in some locales) that many here want to call upper class.
So, as Lindahl pointed out (I think it was him), if you define middle class by the middle 50% (or some other objective number) we will always have a middle class, and it will always be the same size. But the dirty little secret is that the grouping you call middle class now has a much lower standard of living than it used to. 50 years ago, a factory worker somewhere in that middle 50% could own a modest/normal single family house, have some kids, own a car or two, and send those kids to college, all while preparing for a normal retirement. That was middle class. Now, the same factory worker could not come close to that standard. They might still be in the middle 50%, so some might still call them middle class, but they aren't close to the same standard of living.
So, did the standard of living known as middle class trend downward? Such that someone who can own a modest/normal single family house, have some kids, own a car or two, and send those kids to college, all while preparing for a normal retirement, might now be "upper class"? For some of you, the answer is obviously yes, even if you didn't put this kind of thought into it. And the true upper class has pulled a brilliant move. It was always the middle class against the upper class, but the middle class used to be all the worker bees, and the upper class was like Kevo describes. But the true upper class, the wealth class, has managed to make some of you think people living a middle class lifestyle are now "upper class" because they make more money than you do (even if that money just enables them to live a middle class lifestyle in a high dollar place). And now they're the enemy, they're "the other". While the true upper class, the wealth class, is nowhere to be seen."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-16-2019, 02:48 PM #7797
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10-16-2019, 02:50 PM #7798Registered User
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Woke up rolled into work puffed down finally having lunch no kids no wife house w mortgage cause its goid for taxes solidly middle class with little to no class I'm so hi now pretty sure I can't work anymore today
Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app
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10-16-2019, 02:52 PM #7799
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10-16-2019, 03:00 PM #7800
But that's past. I came from a machine shop owner father and Irish cops on my mother's side, so, I didn't starve, for sure. But I learned about recessions affecting manufacturing and war cycles at an early age. I lucked out and worked for 22 years for an old school corporation that gave me white collar benefits on an hourly wage basis. Awesome. I'm living off the pension and profit sharing, and I was a schmuck. That's gone. I know, you think I mean pensions are gone, but the whole fucking company is gone. Never thought I'd watch it, and so fast, on top of that. Largest publisher in the world. Poof.
It's a fucking freight train to hell out there. I watched it all my career. I worked in operations that replaced thousands of high paying NYC typesetters and strippers, union tough, almost overnight in the eighties. Poof, gone. And it wasn't brainless stuff. Took years to master. Gone. Now magazines and newspapers are gone. Just, gone. Millions of people out of work. Nothing magic is there to replace that. Our supposedly smart kids are playing with trillions of play money, and all they come up with is fucking WeWork and Uber. A fucking taxi service. China owns us. It's our new Detroit.
I did ok. I'm doing ok. But drive across America, leave your bubble. There's a ton of people hurting, and it's getting worse, not better. It's going to get a lot worse, because this new tax bill will drain money out of the middle class, and help the really wealthy to establish dynasties with the lack of inheritance taxes. In twenty years, it's going to be a freak show in trophy places around the world, and it's really bad now. That will not end well at all. But I'll be dead.
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