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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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10-21-2020, 09:04 AM #10451
Not buying the recession talk, other than the one we're currently in. As soon as things are back to normal (this assumes a vaccine), travel, eating out, sporting events, retail will all rebound almost overnight IMO, especially since a lot of people are still making money but haven't been spending it.
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10-21-2020, 09:08 AM #10452
They're also bored so they spend. No vacations, no travel. I know a family who the wife decided she wanted a horse, so she bought two and had a $250,000 barn built for them. He's taking flying lessons in FL at some intensive stay and learn to fly place.
"timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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10-21-2020, 09:11 AM #10453Registered User
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ALL the talent relies on that payscale to pay bills that they are currently locked into for the foreseeable future, and competition is fierce for talent in the industry. I can see a small pay cut being accepted due to reduced commute related costs, wardrobe costs, lunch costs ,etc, though. So unless that tech worker has already cashed out of their 1.8 million dollar home with a 6k/month mortgage, they literally cannot afford to take any significant paycut (unless they are unemployed and having a tough time looking which we are a ways off from yet). Another thing to realize is that a large portion of a tech workers compensation (IME) comes in the form of stock options. The salary can be pretty high, yes, but what allows them to buy that million dollar house is cashing in the stock they received as a signing bonus, yearly bonus, etc.
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10-21-2020, 09:16 AM #10454
Since when has a company ever given a shit about an employee's cash flow needs?
Company doesn't care if you take a bath on your house.Live Free or Die
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10-21-2020, 09:18 AM #10455
WFH will run it’s course. Remember when Marissa Meyer became CEO of Yahoo and ended WFH to restore accountability? Same thing will happen when companies need to cut costs. The marginal workers living to far to come to office will be cut.
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10-21-2020, 09:18 AM #10456Registered User
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Yep, we had a couple large projects go on hold in April as the money behind them wanted to wait and see what would happen. By August it was "how soon can we get permit approval?" Then again, the stuff i work on is either geared toward high earning young professionals, or govt subsidized affordable housing (which local govts have always hated and tried to hinder, ironically). Its gogogo for now... don't know how long it will last. I came into the workforce during the teeth of the recession and it "only" took me a year to find a job in my field... I'm still spooked by that possibility. I dont want to go back to working graveyard at 24 hour fitness for minimum wage!
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10-21-2020, 09:20 AM #10457
Stock based compensation in established companies is not that much. Options are marked to market and have to be expensed.
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10-21-2020, 09:20 AM #10458Registered User
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10-21-2020, 09:23 AM #10459Registered User
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10-21-2020, 09:24 AM #10460Registered User
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I know thats how it used to be when i was living in the Bay Area, and my BIL started working for a FAANG company last year where his salary is real nice, but the stock options were the real compensation. I just assumed that was still common industry wide. Is that not really the case anymore?
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10-21-2020, 09:27 AM #10461
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10-21-2020, 09:28 AM #10462
Real Estate Crash thread
Maybe you are confusing stock grants (RSU) with stock options. Options have to be issued at market price and expensed. If the stock price doesn’t go up from grant date, options are worthless. Stock grants are common but not a huge part of compensation.
Here’s a discussion.
https://www.quora.com/How-do-stock-o...p_ans=17461045
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10-21-2020, 09:30 AM #10463
You guys are funny. Silicon Valley is currently leading the way with the pay cuts for work from home.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tech...berg%20reports.
If that sticks, it will be less than a year before you see it across all white collar industries. Then the bloodbath is here.Live Free or Die
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10-21-2020, 09:40 AM #10464
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10-21-2020, 09:47 AM #10465
I know many tech folks that would gladly take mild paycuts in exchange for being able to live wherever and work whatever hours. There's many companies these days that are fully remote from the get-go. The SV bubble types that have bought in are locked in (correct), but new grads aren't and plenty would be happy to ditch their 3k-a month shoebox for something a bit more livable near their favorite recreational activity. Additionally, startups who are looking not to be tethered to a thirsty VC can get much lower costs out of it.
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10-21-2020, 11:39 AM #10466
What kind of windows? Big 10' high x 6' wide sliding pocket sliders? I hear those go for major dollars. In ground hot tub? Wondering how far $5 million on a construction deal in the Front Range goes. Not that I have that kind of scratch or want to move there.
You are in a different industry that is blowing up right now. As others have pointed, a lot of industries are imploding. America is going hard into the two class system. There will be a smaller middle class over the next 2,3,4 years or so."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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10-21-2020, 11:54 AM #10467
Decade
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10-21-2020, 02:34 PM #10468Registered User
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the windows are only 12 ft high and 16 ft long
I'd post a photo but that's not cool on my part just imagine a picture perfect un obstructed view of breck ski resort horseshoe bowl and the summit of 9 looks like while eating breakfast in your underware
were doing another set of those bi fold sliding glass doors, the unit is around 20k I forget what the invoice said they are cherry as hell
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10-21-2020, 02:36 PM #10469
Nice. You use suction cups?
"timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang
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10-21-2020, 02:56 PM #10470
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10-21-2020, 03:37 PM #10471
That's like saying, fuck you, climate change.
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10-21-2020, 04:19 PM #10472
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10-21-2020, 04:52 PM #10473
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10-21-2020, 04:55 PM #10474
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10-21-2020, 04:57 PM #10475
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