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  1. #10451
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    Not buying the recession talk, other than the one we're currently in. As soon as things are back to normal (this assumes a vaccine), travel, eating out, sporting events, retail will all rebound almost overnight IMO, especially since a lot of people are still making money but haven't been spending it.

  2. #10452
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    They're also bored so they spend. No vacations, no travel. I know a family who the wife decided she wanted a horse, so she bought two and had a $250,000 barn built for them. He's taking flying lessons in FL at some intensive stay and learn to fly place.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  3. #10453
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    Quote Originally Posted by schuss View Post
    being able to depress pay by NOT hiring using NYC/SF payscales
    ALL the talent relies on that payscale to pay bills that they are currently locked into for the foreseeable future, and competition is fierce for talent in the industry. I can see a small pay cut being accepted due to reduced commute related costs, wardrobe costs, lunch costs ,etc, though. So unless that tech worker has already cashed out of their 1.8 million dollar home with a 6k/month mortgage, they literally cannot afford to take any significant paycut (unless they are unemployed and having a tough time looking which we are a ways off from yet). Another thing to realize is that a large portion of a tech workers compensation (IME) comes in the form of stock options. The salary can be pretty high, yes, but what allows them to buy that million dollar house is cashing in the stock they received as a signing bonus, yearly bonus, etc.

  4. #10454
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    Since when has a company ever given a shit about an employee's cash flow needs?

    Company doesn't care if you take a bath on your house.
    Live Free or Die

  5. #10455
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    Mar 2006
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    WFH will run it’s course. Remember when Marissa Meyer became CEO of Yahoo and ended WFH to restore accountability? Same thing will happen when companies need to cut costs. The marginal workers living to far to come to office will be cut.

  6. #10456
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    Dec 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    one project I am on now was going to start in late march, they freaked just like everyone else and pulled the plug, then two months later it was when can we get started?
    Yep, we had a couple large projects go on hold in April as the money behind them wanted to wait and see what would happen. By August it was "how soon can we get permit approval?" Then again, the stuff i work on is either geared toward high earning young professionals, or govt subsidized affordable housing (which local govts have always hated and tried to hinder, ironically). Its gogogo for now... don't know how long it will last. I came into the workforce during the teeth of the recession and it "only" took me a year to find a job in my field... I'm still spooked by that possibility. I dont want to go back to working graveyard at 24 hour fitness for minimum wage!

  7. #10457
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    Stock based compensation in established companies is not that much. Options are marked to market and have to be expensed.

  8. #10458
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    Dec 2010
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    3,894
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Since when has a company ever given a shit about an employee's cash flow needs?

    Company doesn't care if you take a bath on your house.
    the company doesnt, but the workers do. And the demand for talent (in most tech) is still waaaay outstripping the supply of talent so there is no reason why a large paycut would be accepted when the next company would happily pay more to stockpile talent.

  9. #10459
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Stock based compensation in established companies is not that much. Options are marked to market and have to be expensed.
    I know thats how it used to be when i was living in the Bay Area, and my BIL started working for a FAANG company last year where his salary is real nice, but the stock options were the real compensation. I just assumed that was still common industry wide.

  10. #10460
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    Dec 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Stock based compensation in established companies is not that much. Options are marked to market and have to be expensed.
    I know thats how it used to be when i was living in the Bay Area, and my BIL started working for a FAANG company last year where his salary is real nice, but the stock options were the real compensation. I just assumed that was still common industry wide. Is that not really the case anymore?

  11. #10461
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    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    the company doesnt, but the workers do. And the demand for talent (in most tech) is still waaaay outstripping the supply of talent so there is no reason why a large paycut would be accepted when the next company would happily pay more to stockpile talent.
    and denying the competition the best talent gives you, the Corp, an advantage.

  12. #10462
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    I know thats how it used to be when i was living in the Bay Area, and my BIL started working for a FAANG company last year where his salary is real nice, but the stock options were the real compensation. I just assumed that was still common industry wide.
    Maybe you are confusing stock grants (RSU) with stock options. Options have to be issued at market price and expensed. If the stock price doesn’t go up from grant date, options are worthless. Stock grants are common but not a huge part of compensation.

    Here’s a discussion.


    https://www.quora.com/How-do-stock-o...p_ans=17461045

  13. #10463
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    You guys are funny. Silicon Valley is currently leading the way with the pay cuts for work from home.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tech...berg%20reports.

    If that sticks, it will be less than a year before you see it across all white collar industries. Then the bloodbath is here.
    Live Free or Die

  14. #10464
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Then the bloodbath is here.
    Maybe. That’s why most wont leave the proximity of the physical business. If you re-locate too remotely and the market changes you are stuck.

  15. #10465
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    Dec 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    ALL the talent relies on that payscale to pay bills that they are currently locked into for the foreseeable future, and competition is fierce for talent in the industry. I can see a small pay cut being accepted due to reduced commute related costs, wardrobe costs, lunch costs ,etc, though. So unless that tech worker has already cashed out of their 1.8 million dollar home with a 6k/month mortgage, they literally cannot afford to take any significant paycut (unless they are unemployed and having a tough time looking which we are a ways off from yet). Another thing to realize is that a large portion of a tech workers compensation (IME) comes in the form of stock options. The salary can be pretty high, yes, but what allows them to buy that million dollar house is cashing in the stock they received as a signing bonus, yearly bonus, etc.
    I know many tech folks that would gladly take mild paycuts in exchange for being able to live wherever and work whatever hours. There's many companies these days that are fully remote from the get-go. The SV bubble types that have bought in are locked in (correct), but new grads aren't and plenty would be happy to ditch their 3k-a month shoebox for something a bit more livable near their favorite recreational activity. Additionally, startups who are looking not to be tethered to a thirsty VC can get much lower costs out of it.

  16. #10466
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    my head is in the sand seriously
    thats why I ask

    Dear Blog-
    I have two large jobs going right now, one house is valued at well over 5mil the views are stunning and the ski access is out the door, the owner is a ceo of a very large and well known company. We have spent over one month discussing what fireplace to install. The fireplace unit they decided on is 25k. The price doesn't include stone work or anything else related to the fireplace. Another home we have totally shredded is only in the 3.5mil range. The owners have never worked a day in their life. Although he attends some board meetings a couple times a year. That's my reality.
    What kind of windows? Big 10' high x 6' wide sliding pocket sliders? I hear those go for major dollars. In ground hot tub? Wondering how far $5 million on a construction deal in the Front Range goes. Not that I have that kind of scratch or want to move there.

    You are in a different industry that is blowing up right now. As others have pointed, a lot of industries are imploding. America is going hard into the two class system. There will be a smaller middle class over the next 2,3,4 years or so.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  17. #10467
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    Oct 2003
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    Decade

  18. #10468
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    What kind of windows? Big 10' high x 6' wide sliding pocket sliders? I hear those go for major dollars. In ground hot tub? Wondering how far $5 million on a construction deal in the Front Range goes. Not that I have that kind of scratch or want to move there.

    You are in a different industry that is blowing up right now. As others have pointed, a lot of industries are imploding. America is going hard into the two class system. There will be a smaller middle class over the next 2,3,4 years or so.
    the windows are only 12 ft high and 16 ft long
    I'd post a photo but that's not cool on my part just imagine a picture perfect un obstructed view of breck ski resort horseshoe bowl and the summit of 9 looks like while eating breakfast in your underware
    were doing another set of those bi fold sliding glass doors, the unit is around 20k I forget what the invoice said they are cherry as hell

  19. #10469
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    Dec 2012
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    Nice. You use suction cups?
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  20. #10470
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    the windows are only 12 ft high and 16 ft long
    I'd post a photo but that's not cool on my part just imagine a picture perfect un obstructed view of breck ski resort horseshoe bowl and the summit of 9 looks like while eating breakfast in your underware
    were doing another set of those bi fold sliding glass doors, the unit is around 20k I forget what the invoice said they are cherry as hell
    I've seen some portfolios of window set ups like that. They are sweet as hell, especially when you have the views to match.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  21. #10471
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    That's like saying, fuck you, climate change.

  22. #10472
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    Dec 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    That's like saying, fuck you, climate change.
    Dromond is biking to work.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  23. #10473
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    Dec 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Since when has a company ever given a shit about an employee's cash flow needs?

    Company doesn't care if you take a bath on your house.
    IBM would buy your house if you got transferred.
    At least they used to, for some people.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  24. #10474
    Gman's Avatar
    Gman is offline Mack Master William Large
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiballs View Post
    IBM would buy your house if you got transferred.
    At least they used to, for some people.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Johnson and Johnson has a pretty similar/good program as well.

  25. #10475
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    the windows are only 12 ft high and 16 ft long
    I'd post a photo but that's not cool on my part just imagine a picture perfect un obstructed view of breck ski resort horseshoe bowl and the summit of 9 looks like while eating breakfast in your underware
    were doing another set of those bi fold sliding glass doors, the unit is around 20k I forget what the invoice said they are cherry as hell
    20k seems low to me, maybe that’s the bargain model.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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