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  1. #19401
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Beaverton, OR
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    1,337
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    No, I call him lucky. But, he still lives in Reno.
    What ails you is ENVY

  2. #19402
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    13,647
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    <snip>
    I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.
    I got a buddy that just spent a million bucks on a house in Tabernash and is planning to STR it. My reaction was:


  3. #19403
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    Apr 2021
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    2,839
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    No, I decided against Moab as it is tough to cash flow an investment there and right now that's what I am mainly focussed on. I could have broke even and had a sweet home to go to any time I wanted, but that just isn't enough for me right now. I'd rather cash flow and travel with the proceeds.

    The place I was looking at was a townhome in one of the few STR approved neighborhoods in Moab. Looked like April-May were insane rent prices, like higher than here in CO, but mid-summer and winter would be tough. Here in CO, there is more consistency throughout the year.

    I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.

    Cool, thanks for the thoughtful reply.

  4. #19404
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
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    3,141
    Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

    Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

    Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  5. #19405
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot View Post
    What ails you is ENVY
    Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.

  6. #19406
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    No longer Alexandria, VA
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    2,648
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

    Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

    ]
    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...20789894_zpid/

    I was talking to the dude who just bought this property in LA for $1.2m and is trying to rent it out for $5k/month.

    Him + wife are moving into the 400 sq ft ADU on the property, and he said they still will have to pay $800/month towards the mortgage. Long term he plans to do a cash out refinance, buy another property, rinse, repeat… easy as that, right?!?!

    Seems to me like he is setting himself up for financial disaster. But hey, what do I know.

    I’m sure there are plenty more people like this out there donating to the long-time CA resident relocation rescue fund

  7. #19407
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,716
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

    Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

    Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/
    House prices no longer need to be connected to local wages.

    IMHO, local wages need to be connected to house prices.

  8. #19408
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    your vacation
    Posts
    4,718
    San Juan County is just south of Spanish valley they don't have shit going on and are happily approving any and all development to piss off grandcounty moab it's pretty funny

  9. #19409
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,813
    I have 4K sf for two people. GIrl has the whole upstairs with separate home theater, living space, guest suite. It might be too big but if you like personal privacy it’s great. Not to mention guests also have a full suite just like a hotel.

  10. #19410
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Nhampshire
    Posts
    7,761
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

    Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

    Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/
    Let me introduce you to technology venture capital and related returns...

    "In 2021, U.S. investments in venture capital exceeded $300 billion for the first time, nearly doubling 2020’s $166.6 billion figure, according to an early look at PitchBook’s fourth quarter venture monitor."
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...ecords-in-2021

  11. #19411
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    10,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.
    C'mon now. We'd love to have you.

  12. #19412
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Denial
    Posts
    2,556
    Quote Originally Posted by TAFKALVS View Post
    Ban Airbnb and a significant portion of the supposed "shortage" will cure itself.
    As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this. I believe pretty choking regulations of STRs will help ease the housing shortage. And not taxes those just increases prices, what I've seen work to some degree is city wide caps if not bans.

    My libertarian beliefs, and desire to own STRs as an investor directly contradict the above though, so don't yell at me too much.
    The whole human race is de evolving; it is due to birth control, smart people use birth control, and stupid people keep pooping out more stupid babies.

  13. #19413
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,647
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I have 4K sf for two people. GIrl has the whole upstairs with separate home theater, living space, guest suite. It might be too big but if you like personal privacy it’s great. Not to mention guests also have a full suite just like a hotel.
    Name:  butnevermind2.gif
Views: 327
Size:  35.2 KB

  14. #19414
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
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    13,647
    Quote Originally Posted by Yukonrider View Post
    As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this.
    I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?

  15. #19415
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Denial
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    2,556
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?
    Drop in the bucket, but in my home town there is a 225 unit STR cap. Out of 8000 homes in town 3% are STRs.

    In a time of increasing population we have essentially decreased housing stock by 3% in 3 years and that's with a cap (there's a 3 year wait list).

    At the same time increasing the cost of a house (an STR can generate 3 to 5x the cash flow as an LTR) so a house that is worth say 100k to a long term investor is worth 200k to a short term investor. Then of course you have family home buyers, inflation, Califonication etc all compounding the issue.

    That's just my small town highly seasonal Michigan market. The issue is even more stark in vacation towns where STR occupancy is higher and returns are better.
    The whole human race is de evolving; it is due to birth control, smart people use birth control, and stupid people keep pooping out more stupid babies.

  16. #19416
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    2,100
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.
    Fantastic post and philosophy.

  17. #19417
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,242
    Quote Originally Posted by thefortrees View Post
    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...20789894_zpid/

    I was talking to the dude who just bought this property in LA for $1.2m and is trying to rent it out for $5k/month.

    Him + wife are moving into the 400 sq ft ADU on the property, and he said they still will have to pay $800/month towards the mortgage. Long term he plans to do a cash out refinance, buy another property, rinse, repeat… easy as that, right?!?!

    Seems to me like he is setting himself up for financial disaster. But hey, what do I know.

    I’m sure there are plenty more people like this out there donating to the long-time CA resident relocation rescue fund
    I know someone who was doing that exact same program pre-RE market crash. Then he got caught with the chair at the end of the music. Except that chair wasn't worth even half what he paid for it. He's just about back to square one now about a decade later.

    The lot we bought in Bend was a similar story with a RE agent that was just buying up properties pre crash and then flipping them to home builders or people looking to buy the American dream. His misery was our gain though.

    I guess that's Capitalism for you.

    And I agree with whoever said we ain't building our way out of the housing shortage anytime soon. But they sure the hell are trying very hard here in my town! It's going to really suck for the building trades if and when things do stop or even just slow way down.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  18. #19418
    Join Date
    Apr 2021
    Posts
    2,839
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    San Juan County is just south of Spanish valley they don't have shit going on and are happily approving any and all development to piss off grandcounty moab it's pretty funny
    Like what? I don't see shit to buy there - 12 houses for sale now roughly in the county. Or is it all coming down the pipeline?

    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?
    It would make a massive difference in many small popular mountain towns. In other places like SLC, I'd guess it would be a drop in the bucket.

  19. #19419
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Mayonnaisium
    Posts
    10,467
    Another thing about STRs is their predominant location in desirable areas (duh) so even a small percent of the total can have an outsized impact.

  20. #19420
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    panhandle locdog
    Posts
    7,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Yukonrider View Post
    As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this. I believe pretty choking regulations of STRs will help ease the housing shortage. And not taxes those just increases prices, what I've seen work to some degree is city wide caps if not bans.

    My libertarian beliefs, and desire to own STRs as an investor directly contradict the above though, so don't yell at me too much.
    I'm pretty libertarian too, but homes should not be hotels, and neighborhoods should be communities not resort complexes.

    I am cool with STR in high density condos, and I think a lot of resort towns (like mine) should encourage as many of those as possible. Give people the dream of having a weekend place in the mountains. Lets cut the sprawl and get some high rises in our mountain and lake towns.

    But save SFH for people, families and the community.

  21. #19421
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    4,496
    STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
    You’re welcome,
    Captain Obvious

  22. #19422
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    your vacation
    Posts
    4,718
    Quote Originally Posted by Self Jupiter View Post
    STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
    You’re welcome,
    Captain Obvious
    It is and isn't kinda an urban myth to some degree

    I was getting ready to rail against a bunch of local bullshit then they invited me up to 3rd floor hate when they do that to me small towns suck gotta watch what you say

  23. #19423
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    panhandle locdog
    Posts
    7,836
    Quote Originally Posted by Self Jupiter View Post
    STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
    You’re welcome,
    Captain Obvious
    Yup. "Oh we love this town, let's buy an airbnb!" 5 years later, after 90% of the affordable housing inventory is locked in STRs "Wow, I can't believe the ski resort can't get employees! They should build affordable housing for them!"

  24. #19424
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    9,531
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?
    the Bloomberg link upthread had ~9% of the single family homes in the us converting to investor/rental property in the past decade. That’s a hefty chunk of the market.

  25. #19425
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Keep Tacoma Feared
    Posts
    5,266
    9% of homes in US are short term rentals?

    In simple macroeconomic terms, price is where supply meets demand. So you add a small amount of supply by ending short term rentals, prices should marginally go down. But what about the demand for short term rentals? Hotels aren't exactly hurting right now, and can't absorb that demand. The only solution is to build more housing, particularly small, dense, cheap housing.

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