Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

Fucking wow eh Fred? I guess we don't all live in CO or CA.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Fucking wow eh Fred? I guess we don't all live in CO or CA.

We moved to the Tahoe area and bought an overpriced house 5 years ago. Now it’s apparently worth double what we paid.

Like you, I hope California prices collapse. The high price does me no good cause I’m not going anywhere, and I’d sure like my kids to be able to afford to live in the area when the time comes, if they so choose.

[half-fast]

Lol, my parents bought a really, really amazing property in Dewitt/Syracuse in 1986 for ~$215k.
It is now worth about…$275k.
And they have made it even more super awesome. Some SU professor is going to get an insane bargain on a really cool house when they sell.

You might want to check again. If its nice like you say and in a good neighborhood its worth more. There’s a house in the outer SU area, not student rental that sold for $87k in ‘97 they’re asking $275k now. Nothing special

[rideit]

Yeah, just for fun I checked Zillow, they estimate $297-$350 or so, but I don’t think they have any idea besides just comps. Good neighborhood, up in the hills above Nottingham HS.

[half-fast]

That’s a good neighborhood, nothing’s ever for sale there

[rideit]

Exactly, so comps are bullshit. My gut tells me they would get more like $450k or so, but who the hell knows. Maybe Boeheim’s replacement will be looking by then….

[J. Barron DeJong]

Fucking wow eh Fred? I guess we don't all live in CO or CA.

The heart of the CA housing problem:



https://twitter.com/andresdq21/statu...zNzgeulKJChWHQ

[dunfree]

The heart of the CA housing problem:



https://twitter.com/andresdq21/statu...zNzgeulKJChWHQ

the data is behind a paywall, but they seem to confuse SF, DC and their metro areas? No question the don’t build enough in the right form, but smells like bullshit.

[dan_pdx]

the data is behind a paywall, but they seem to confuse SF, DC and their metro areas? No question the don’t build enough in the right form, but smells like bullshit.

Yeah, this CA government site claims 2,500 new units in SF/year from 2010 to 2018. Still not nearly enough, but not as dire as that twit https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/ho...uction#chart-1

The Fed has more recent data and counts permits for 1,600 new "housing structures" in 2021. I assume that some of that is multifamily
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SANF806BPPRIV

[J. Barron DeJong]

Yeah, this CA government site claims 2,500 new units in SF/year from 2010 to 2018. Still not nearly enough, but not as dire as that twit https://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/ho...uction#chart-1

The Fed has more recent data and counts permits for 1,600 new "housing structures" in 2021. I assume that some of that is multifamily
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SANF806BPPRIV

Apparently it’s looking at permit submissions, not completed units (from the replies):

[dunfree]

That’s ~640 units per square land mile of dc (one an acre). A city with many many square miles of unbuildable land (bases, parks, sewage plant, parks, fed buildings) and a effective height restriction. Crazy.

[J. Barron DeJong]

That’s ~640 units per square land mile of dc (one an acre). A city with many many square miles of unbuildable land (bases, parks, sewage plant, parks, fed buildings) and a effective height restriction. Crazy.

I can’t find an alternate source for the DC numbers, but the 62 for SF is from this article

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/artic...s-17135343.php

Regardless of what is happening elsewhere, that low of a number for SF is unacceptable.

[fastfred]

Fucking wow eh Fred? I guess we don't all live in CO or CA.

My reaction was upstate economics you know I know the area I mean it's not waterfront on Cazenovia but it's close I'm might zillow my house in a sec and rub one out

So I was in three baller houses today all in the 6 to 10 million price Range call me jaded I guess

Sent from my SM-A426U using Tapatalk

[Core Shot]

https://fox17.com/news/nation-world/...use-trap-house

$575k meth lab

I guess mill creek UT is blowing up

[wolfelot]

I’m curious for those building and selling in the mtns of Colorado.

Currently what percent of new builds and existing home sales are cash-based transactions?

[Foggy_Goggles]

I’m curious for those building and selling in the mtns of Colorado.

Currently what percent of new builds and existing home sales are cash-based transactions?

I don't have any statistics to quote, but I think "most" is a fair answer to both questions.

New builds either look like custom homes which really start at $1.5mill and go to the moon from there or specs. This is the market I know as the is a majority of my work. Most of these projects are run through a title company and an escrow process for legal and financial purposes. They may or may not be mortgaged once complete. One way or the other they are collateralized by relatively liquid assets. From the handful of my friends that GC these projects, it is pretty standard to require basic proof that you have the $$$ by about the second meeting. There is so much demand that there is really no incentive to work with a client that brings the headache of a construction loan.

On the spec side, these tend to be subdivisions or condos/townhome projects. Again, the competition is so high that these are selling prior to completion (often fully funded in presale) that any non-cash offer is disadvantaged. Many times, a realtor is not even involved. No inspections, no appraisal, Some BS buyer beware warranty.

On the existing home sales side, it is more of the same. Demand exceeds supply by so much, that, in a competitive offer situation, the financed offer just can't compete.

The caveat being that their is not a lot of transparency. There is probably a way to check liens against property once it's sold. This is just acecdata from the Fraser Valley, USA.

[liv2ski]

On the existing home sales side, it is more of the same. Demand exceeds supply by so much, that, in a competitive offer situation, the financed offer just can't compete.

You're correct on this one. I have had so many buyers get pre-approved over the last 18 months and 1 ended up in escrow. They had to over bid the list price by $40k and I was shocked the appraisal came in. Their agent wrote the offer with no appraisal contingency, which I initially thought was nuts, but it worked out for them. 20 day escrow closes next week.

[wolfelot]

Thanks Foggy and liv2ski. That is what I figured.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

I believe the latest data I saw for Gallatin County in SWMT was 60% of all closed transactions in 2021 were cash. This includes all of Bozeman and roughly half of Big Sky.

MLS wide I believe this number would be closer to 70-75%. Just my guess. This would include Moonlight Basin in Madison County and all of Paradise Valley in Park County.....aka very high end properties and large ranches. So almost certainly cash deals. This would only be listings that actually made it to the MLS. Off market deals included I would not be surprised if this number didn't push 80%.

I feel like I had great luck with my buyers in 2021 and early 2022. I have been able to get every single buyer client who is financing to closing in a relatively short time. Hearing horror stories of financed buyers having to submit 20+ offers to get one to stick. Not the case for me.

[Name Redacted]

"Cash Buyer" doesn't exactly mean what it used to mean. You can get a loan before you buy that makes you able to make a cash offer w/ few contingencies, then converts to a mortgage after close. Is that accounted for in those stats?

I could use my HELOC to make a cash offer on a condo then refinance it to a mortgage later. This is what people have to do to be competitive these days I guess.

[dunfree]

So 600 all cash sales in Bozeman? Plus however many every where else? Doesn’t sound like a lot.

contrast: king county, wa 38.5k sales, like 1/4 of those all cash

[carpathian]

WWMD?

I am building a 1000 sqft house in Hawaii right now am $50k in out of pocket (permits, dirt work, septic, in ground plumbing, slab and first floor framing).

As of a couple days ago I was approved for a $70k Heloc on my Alaska house to be used to finish construction. Once the place is done it will be worth around $600k in current state of this real estate 'bubble'.

At that point I was planning on pulling $300k mortgage or so on the new house, paying off the Heloc and then throwing down on either more raw Hawaii land on which to build another house or maybe go simple and buy a duplex or triplex in Anchorage... trying to create options.

The crux of the matter is that the Heloc is at 4.5% right now and apparently it is is non-fixed and can go all the way up to 18% if the market dictates, which scares the hell out of me!

A) take Heloc, double down on building faster then interest rates material cost rise and lock into fixed rate by Jan 2023

B) don't take Heloc, continue out of pocket slow and painful, maybe done by Jan 2024

C) take Heloc, crank out house, sell for $600k asap, 1031 into something else, buy gold , BTC etc...

D) sell Hawaii now, buy more chickens and ammo in Alaska, hunker down

E) ?

I can sign for the Heloc tomorrow

[XXX-er]

I see the old Carpathian ski factory which was on that road the name of which rhymes with Vagina has a sold sign

[4matic]

Take the heloc and move forward as quickly as possible.

[Danno]

I say option A.