Real Estate Crash thread

[Skidog]

^^^that is really well said. Everyone that expected materials cost to come down have been wrong. I'm just waiting for customers (second homeowners) to start pulling the plug just based on "the price is fuckin' rediculous" but it hasn't happened yet. 'round here $400 sq. ft. is minimum and I've worked on projects that came in >$1K sq. ft.

Anecdotally, here are a few stories from the last week or so. a. modular home companies (who generally do a good job at managing their supply chain) can't get hotwater heaters, cabinets, appliances etc. to finish their units so they sit in a yard is some godforsaken corner of Nebraska b. there is a legitimate rebar shortage, once large contractors got wind of this, they bought out all the suppliers. In 20+ years in this business, I have never seen residential contractors inventory commodity materials. That is happening how. c. their is a plywood glue shortage. companies like LP have indefinite back orders for products that usually are instock. I know of projects that are gonna stop halfway though. d. overcommitted GCs are realizing that that can't get done what they said they would get done. There is a huge backlog of work in pre-construction, excavation, concrete, framing etc.

And as mentioned. None of the subcontractors like me give two shits. I get calls for something like 3Xs the amount of no bid work than I can actually do. I don't even really do scheduling anymore. I just drive by the jobs and see when the drywall is getting stocked, call the GC as say, "do you still want me to do it? When are the materials showing up? What do you want to pay?"

Heard they aren't even making any fireproof ply for the foreseeable future catching up on backorders. Hell even just 4 months ago a nice finished ply 8x4' was only $40 round these parts, now that same board goes for near $70.

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[Skidog]

I can't speak to Montana but 'round here that actually isn't the case. I've worked on quite a few 3bd/3ba <2500 sq. ft. custom homes on really nice semi-remote lots with really nice design and finishes.

But yeah, I almost bought a lot in a pretty perfect, for me, subdivision outside of Granby. Everything about it was great except that the HOA needed 1800sq. ft. finished. Not only was that bigger than I wanted but it drove the construction loan into a figure that I was not comfortable with. This was circa 2010. Of course If I had built that house I'd now have a ton of equity but who cares, I'd still need somewhere to live.

I've been trying to pencil out these remote live/work apartment/shop projects but the sticking point is spreading the fixed infrastructure costs over a smaller property. It would be a really easy to reduce the water/sewer tap fees or allow shared well/septic agreement in order to promote smaller residences but it ain't happening.

1.5 years into a full cash foreclosure we live in. 1365sq ft on record. We finished the basement to add an additional 600sq ft. Might add a basement effeciency type 3 piece bath in basement for guests. 3 bdrm. 2 bath currently on 2acres.

Came out of a 2600 sq ft, 4 bdrm, 3 full bath house in utah we didn't use half of. Big homes are overrated.

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[Skidog]

My wife and I are happily living in an 800 sqft house with an unfinished attic for storage. The only thing I miss about our previous 3 story, 3000 sqft monstrosity was having more than 1 bathroom and a guest room/office. Both will be remedied when we finish the attic, which will net a total finished sqft of ~1200 sqft. We purposely downsized after trying the "big house thing", between the mortgage and the maintenance it started feeling like a prison.

Big houses are dumb, unless you have a big family. Mandatory sqft rules (along with architectural committees) are dumb. I understand CC&Rs that prevent singlewides, junk cars, and require once you begin building you finish in 2years... but requiring you build some stupid McMansion with (pick your bad kitschy architectural flavor) is super dumb.

As mentioned earlier in thread, remember 5+ families used to live in 1200sq ft homes. Most have been torn down for mentioned monstrosities.

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[Skidog]

1.5 years into a full cash foreclosure we live in. 1365sq ft on record. We finished the basement to add an additional 600sq ft. Might add a basement effeciency type 3 piece bath in basement for guests. 3 bdrm. 2 bath currently on 2acres.

Came out of a 2600 sq ft, 4 bdrm, 3 full bath house in utah we didn't use half of. Big homes are overrated.

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Edit on mobile is messed up, maybe I'm just drunk...

We paid 200k for foreclosure, cash. Put 95k in. Current zillow, without even updated pics, puts it at 340k. I figure 375k if I was to sell.

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[fastfred]

Any thoughts or predictions on when construction costs might come back to earth? Are high construction costs mainly due to reduced imports of lumber and other goods during Covid ? Or lack of skilled labor? Both? WTF?

We are basically looking to just add on to our home rather than move. Love our neighborhood, and location, house is feeling a little small, but to move would cost an arm and a leg and there’s nothing out there for sale anyway.

Probably going to talk to an architect and at least get plans ready then just wait for costs to come down. Would that be a waste of time/money?

350 sq ft was a couple years ago then 400 sq ft now it's 440 sq ft minimum cost

talk to an architect right now, get on there list most are 6 months or 12 months out unless you got an in with them already, if prices dropped (I'll be giving myself blow jobs if they do) you want to be ready

prices will not drop, people know what they are worth and want that money, labor rates will continue to go up and will never go down, when you see young white kids deciding they want to get into the trades, until then, forget it we squeezed mexican imigration, pray for legal imigration too to help lower labor costs, and I need 6 figures a year to live comfortably, why not? 50-60 hour work weeks endless bullshit day in and day out I never deal with someone who is happy? pay me bitch

As for building materials call your congress people senetor all those polticial fucks tell them you are pissed, this is all those tariffs in action right now, us producers of steel and lumber love the tarriffs they can tack 30% onto there product because of the tarriffs on chineese steel and canadian lumber, I just read the lumber mfg monthly report, they are filling half the orders right now, the other problem is three companies control all the lumber in this country and they are raping people, sure supply and demand, but logs are sitting un bought, mills are shutting down and running at half, all because they want to squeeze the supply so they can boost retail costs, independent lumber producers are at the mercy of Boisie cascade lousiana pascific and they are being squeezed out it's all a sham people are making bank off of materials, we thought 25 a sheet in 2007 for 1/2 osb was silly it's at 35 a sheet today. a year and a half ago it was 15 bucks normally materials stablize and drop in january, they skyrocketed in january this year

on the other hand I'm booking jobs for 2022 right now might buy a boat this year or a second home
the smell of weed when I get out of my truck is filled with laughter

[Foggy_Goggles]

On the reality/entitled matrix I'll give you a passing grade...barely. I'm assuming you have a handful of friends that are probably a bit older that got into the game when you were not quite ready and look like they are coming out on top. A lot of that is luck, I put myself in that category. The timing of when I decided to get my shit together, got married, the recession hit, followed by the wage scale of my profession swinging in my favor just worked out.

That said, let's look at a few things. Firstly, consider Bozone is a hot area. Perhaps rightly so. Overlay that on this

.25 to .5 ac, within 20 mins of main street, in the 1500-2000sf range

That's a biggish house on a biggish lot specially when you consider that realtors count finished sq. ft. and contractors count all of it. I'm assuming that main street is a cool place with cool place shit where cool people go. Remember people in less desirable locations drive more than 20mins to a grocery store.

Some people, like myself, see value in actually owning a home/owning the dirt underneath it, having a garage, etc and don't want to live in a condo even if they are single.

That's nice. Remember what you want and what you need ain't the same thing. Primarily, a residence is a roof over your head. Garages, a yard, granite countertops, a home office etc. go in the same category as snowmobiles, rims for your whip, cocaine and trips to Mexico. If we talk about affordable housing as some type of a right, which I agree with, no cocaine in the champagne room. If you want the cadillac you gotta pay for the cadillac.

That kinda house doesn't really exist here unfortunately. It's just the way the valley is. You are gonna be on pretty much a dead flat lot with more of a suburban feel to be in the 700k range.

That's my take on a lot of Montana, at least where the jobs are, generally. Huge flat valleys where the wind blows a lot. Not that many hills 20 minutes from the grocery store. Suburban feel makes me laugh. "I wanna in the country but near the city and near the ski area and near the good school with a big lot and a garage but I want it to be affordable". You want country? My buddy is selling his place in Vallier so he can make more money elsewhere. You can walk to the bar but watch out for grizzlies in the street.

Elevated lot with great views and a little more mountain feel and you are gonna have a really hard time finding anything under 900-1.1M

Sounds fair to maybe even cheap. Put a $100K down, earn $100K a year or more, hope it doesn't need too many repairs, roll the dice and see how it works out. Remember, principal is just paying yourself back. You're only gonna pay about $500K in interest over 30years. That's only about $1,300 a month. That's the big kid math and a big part of why houses cost what they do. The cheapest leverage you'll ever find.

Is it a shitty scene for working class, younger, possibly first time buyers? Yeah, but not the scenario you presented. The fact that the run in in real estate over the course of the last generation that made a lot of people a lot of money for no reason that being in the right place at the right time isn't relevant. That's whining and falling victim to the exact system that many feign to be rallying against. If you think housing is overvalued, rent. If you think rent is too expensive, move.

The fact that many if not most people can't afford the housing they want is symptom of many challenges that we have in society. But don't put it up there with the cost of higher education and affordable health care. Next thing you know people will start expecting to work less that 40 hours a week.

It's not a knock on you Phish, and I do think that the system is broken. Mostly I think that the wage scale is fucked for teachers, firefighters, grocery store managers, healthcare workers and other generally mandatory professions. But when you take the salaries of two of those jobs and for 50% of the total income you can live in one of the most desirable locations in the country and have what most people would consider a nice place, the story gets a bit old. Overlay the antigrowth sentiment and everything is so busy conversation that never ends and it makes you wonder if reality is a guiding principle.

[lifelinksplit]

FG, evan, and fred nailed it. Good luck finding people to do the work even if you're willing to pay the $$. I moved to buy a place and work less. It's mostly older carpenters working right now and naming price/hours and mostly because they have a hard time turning down easy money.

Yeah once you start seeing young people entering the trades maybe things will start to change but fuck me when we're paying over 50 bucks for 3/4 t&g ply. If ya wanna keep the tariffs on Canada then you need to start logging more.

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[climberevan]

We should start a crusty old contractor thread. We can all tell stories about how generally fucked the whole housing industry is in the US. I stopped doing the high end ski house thing because it started to disgust me. Working for regular people doesn't pay as well but it's way more gratifying.

I've always been a huge proponent of the low overhead life. No kids, no car payment, pay off the house in 5 years, etc. Work is overrated, and even though I can literally name my price right now, I'd rather ride my bike a lot and not deal with the hassle.

So much of it is timing. When I bought my house in 2013 the neighborhood (1ac min lot size) was in the low $300s. I bought a really beater foreclosure for way less. The few remaining lots are now being built on and the 2500-3000sqft houses on them are selling for $900k. To me this seems insane, but to my CA friends it still seems cheap.

Anyway, I do really feel for people just getting started with adulting. It's a tough time, but absent another big crash or serious structural reform it's not likely to change.

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[lifelinksplit]

Yeah I think we have similar views. Fuck debt. It gets way easier to ski/bike/fish etc when you have no mortgage/car payment/minimize bills/no kids. I did a lot of commercial construction and the giant custom ski house thing for way too long. Felt kinda dirty driving through downtown Bozeman and knowing how many places I built or was involved with that contributed to changing it into a yuppie/hipster douchestorm. Doing remodels and re-purposing 100yr old materials is way more satisfying.

I see things leveling out but I think a good amount of people are way more insulated against a big crash like 08. Who the fuck knows though.

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[yeahman]

Only thing we know for sure is that the crash always comes.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

It's not a knock on you Phish, and I do think that the system is broken.

I don't take it as a knock. I am firmly in the camp of "pay to play". Want 4% cold smoke up to your eyes 20 minutes from all the coffee shops downtown? It's gonna cost you. Want to spend half as much for the same square footage? There are plenty of flatter places far from ski areas that are still beautiful and relatively affordable.....and yes the grocery store is gonna be 45-60 minutes away......and there are no jobs unless you work 100% remote or are a rancher.

The struggle is convincing buyers that this isn't [insert anywhere USA that they are moving from that doesn't have awesome mountains/fishing/hunting] and that it's expensive as fuck to live here (unless you are coming from NYC or SF).

Shit, maybe I will have to rent forever.....or quit skiing.....or win the lottery? I could only complain about it if I was 50+ years old and around when things were relatively cheaper, but I'm just another 30 something "kid" ruining another "formerly" cool town. #partoftheproblem.

I will say this, everyone and their mom wants a damn correction already. Unfortunately 2008 was it's own special kind of manufactured trainwreck and we will most likely never see that big of a crash again......but I'm no expert.

We need BTC to keep charging and have a RE crash at the same time and I just might have a chance to buy in this county.

[concretejungle]

I will say this, everyone and their mom wants a damn correction already.

Not me. Keep BZN real estate sky high so I can cash out in a few years. We moved here 10 years ago with the thought it would be the next Boulder. I just didn't think it would happen so fast.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Not me. Keep BZN real estate sky high so I can cash out in a few years. We moved here 10 years ago with the thought it would be the next Boulder. I just didn't think it would happen so fast.

Yeah I first visited in 2015 and tried my damndest to get some family members to invest. Nope. Didn't have enough cash on my own to do it. Like basically showing up to the 1849 gold rush and not being able to buy a claim. Extremely frustrating, but it is what it is. Figured if I didn't have my own money to play with maybe I could make a few bucks helping others play with theirs.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Not me. Keep BZN real estate sky high so I can cash out in a few years. We moved here 10 years ago with the thought it would be the next Boulder. I just didn't think it would happen so fast.

You are doing well, but where are you going to go when you sell? Any place equal or better will be the same money or more. I'd like to move just cause lots more people here now, but can't figure out where to go.

[concretejungle]

You are doing well, but where are you going to go when you sell? Any place equal or better will be the same money or more. I'd like to move just cause lots more people here now, but can't figure out where to go.

Somewhere where there’s no skiing. It’s become less of a priority and my partner doesn’t ski/hates the cold. Apparently there’s all these passes that fuck the locals over so I’ll pick one of those up and take vacations if I want to ski.

Edited to add: the pay scale here was screwed up when I moved here ten years ago and it hasn't really improved.

[dan_pdx]

That's right, I recall reading\responding to you on your situation a while back. It sounds like you will love Bellingham. I switched from skiing to snowboarding in college and loved Baker. (Ski mainly now after many years on the board)

Personally, I think 2 or 3 days a week to Bellevue from there would be brutal. I say that from a perhaps biased perspective as I commuted weekly from Portland to Seattle for a year before we moved. I was 4 days a week in Seattle. I left ridiculously early the day of work Monday and Friday mostly. Bellingham is a better commute but it's still a long way. I was perpetually run down and look back upon that time as not the best of times.
Best of luck with the move!

Hey Puma, yeah, I got a lot of good beta from you and others on that North Bend thread. My wife and I spent a long weekend outside of Carnation, checking out the area, and we couldn't quite see ourselves in the Falls City / Duvall / Carnation area. At the time, we thought that places further east, including North Bend, would be further than I'd be willing to travel for a daily commute, and maybe more clouds and rain than we'd want, which prompted us to check out Bellingham. If we do wind up there long term, I won't do it as a daily commute, I'll work out a room or at least a couch so I just make the Bellingham-Bellevue trip once a week - I agree that doing it every day would make me hate life.

I'll also be going back to probably 2 or 3 days a week, and also in Bellevue. (Perhaps we can meet for a lunch\beer one day down the road?) My wife works near Seattle Center and already talks about her day or two a week commute on the horizon that will be very less than ideal...

Yeah! It would be great to get together in Bellevue for lunch / drinks when things have gotten back to whatever "normal" is in the future.

[glademaster]

I could only complain about it if I was 50+ years old and around when things were relatively cheaper, but I'm just another 30 something "kid" ruining another "formerly" cool town. #partoftheproblem.

Don't buy into that narrative. The places we live and work were ruined around the time we were getting potty trained (or long before I was born in the case of my locale). We're just riding the coattails of the most avaricious generation of humans to ever have walked the earth.

Now if only I could get this damn time machine working...

[MontuckyFried]

Only thing we know for sure is that the crash always comes.

Bingo. It IS going to happen. Don't know when, but you're right. Sooner or later, a reckoning is a' coming. While we all know the details and circumstances are different this time, I distinctly remember the SAME exact levels of RE cockiness leading up to 2008. Now for that final straw to break this camel's back. Seriously. I look forward to a hard crash.

[glademaster]

How many new homes/apartments have been built in the US since 2009? And as a follow up, how many million more people live in the US today than in 2009? That would be interesting information to look at.

The other thing that(I think) has changed over the past 10-15 years is the number of people who own 3+ properties. It's just conjecture, but I think there is quite a bit of inventory tied up by folks who own five or six houses and let them sit empty when they aren't using them.

[schuss]

About 20 million people added 2010->2020.
Cite: https://www.census.gov/library/stori...0last%20decade.
For housing: New housing starts on the order of ~10 million or so, depending on how you're counting multifamilies.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles...e-last-decade/

Really does point to investors and empty property likely being a problem. On top of that, I'm willing to bet the regional nature meant the housing added wasn't necessarily where it was needed most.

[concretejungle]

Bingo. It IS going to happen. Don't know when, but you're right. Sooner or later, a reckoning is a' coming. While we all know the details and circumstances are different this time, I distinctly remember the SAME exact levels of RE cockiness leading up to 2008. Now for that final straw to break this camel's back. Seriously. I look forward to a hard crash.

Also, remember that the crash affected certain areas immensely and others were less hard hit. Boulder for example.

[fastfred]

keep dreaming about the crash coming
anywhere desirable ain't bottoming out and how can it crash when there are so many people "waiting for prices to go down to make their move and buy" don't work that way sorry

find somewhere not cool and prices are reasonable or dirt cheap
I have a list of places that are the bomb but most are in the middle of no where and at first glance are the places socially mobile liberal leaning outdoor yuppie types would never gravitate too because they are too scary far from fo fo resturants and have an over all redneck conservative christian population that loves oil which the goreganics crowd hates

no reckoning no crash way to many gen xers with money and looking for a lifestyle too many boomers just pissing that money away

[Benny Profane]

Only thing we know for sure is that the crash always comes.

Yeah, but, that happened in 08 for like, a year or two. Look where we are now.

[Benny Profane]

How many new homes/apartments have been built in the US since 2009? And as a follow up, how many million more people live in the US today than in 2009? That would be interesting information to look at.

The other thing that(I think) has changed over the past 10-15 years is the number of people who own 3+ properties. It's just conjecture, but I think there is quite a bit of inventory tied up by folks who own five or six houses and let them sit empty when they aren't using them.

I've told this story before, but, I'll whip it out again.

I was riding a lift at Big Sky with a youngish snowboarder and another fellow, and we were all admiring a nice little palace somebody was building right next to the trail. After we all moaned about something we'll never have, the younger fellow tells me about something that happened to a friend of his who worked in property management at Vail. He had to get into an empty mansion and his boss told him to call the owner for whatever means to get in. He calls the number, and a man answers. After telling the owner about his predicament, the man shouts, without putting down the phone, "Honey, do we have a house in Vail?"

[365wp]

A lot of people have made a lot of money in the market and crypto. As long as the all cash offers keep happening, I don't see values going down too far.

Our realtor in VT kept asking if we were going to pay cash, since we were moving from MA. Ummmmm no. We made enough improvements to the house we sold in MA that we more or less broke even all considering. As with every real estate transaction I've made thus far, I wish we could have kept it because it's gone up another $100k in value in the last year. Our condo in Dot has doubled in price since we sold it in 2008.

One of our goals moving to the current location just outside of Burlington was to have more $$$ to travel. I think I'll always want a place to call home that's near things I like to do, like 30min from skiing, mountain biking, live music, etc. We have that now. We couldn't have carried the house in MA, plus have a ski condo/house in VT, and the drive north on Friday was brutal.

I really like the Granby/Grand Lake area. That house is nice, great weekend place for a Franger. When we looked at the Front Range though, we realized we couldn't afford to buy there, and have a place in the mountains. We looked at living in the area full time, but even pre-pandemic housing was costly enough that it would have been challenging for us, a software dev and RN, to afford it.