Real Estate Crash thread

**Toadman** · 04-12-2020, 06:27 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

So did Bend Oregon. It was amazing how much that area got crushed and has come back.

Yep. We are about to find out how resilient some of these mtn. towns are.

**Name Redacted** · 04-12-2020, 06:32 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Yep. We are about to find out how resilient some of these mtn. towns are.

I think that you'll find many of them are quite resilient, because their fanbase is made up of upper middle class white folk and, in Bend's case, the children of upper middle class white folks.

**muted** · 04-12-2020, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

I never understood the appeal of Boise. Like if you cash out in another state, why the hell would you move to Boise over so many other, better options. Boise is all strip malls, traffic lights, Mormons, and poorly designed tract housing. What were people thinking?

No it’s not. Are you thinking of Pocatello?

**BFD** · 04-12-2020, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Had lots of time to kill today so I was looking at homes for sale, preferably water front. I did not find much I would want to buy. Found one home in Calgary I kind of liked. For about $1M US, it works. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...1535954_zpid/?

Attachment 325041

not big on the wood interior, but if I had your money I would be looking at this
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...-63654?view=qv

**BCMtnHound** · 04-12-2020, 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Had lots of time to kill today so I was looking at homes for sale, preferably water front. I did not find much I would want to buy. Found one home in Calgary I kind of liked. For about $1M US, it works. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...1535954_zpid/?

Attachment 325041

Heh, what they haven't mentioned in those pics is that snow scene is probably in May, or early October.

**Benny Profane** · 04-12-2020, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Yep. We are about to find out how resilient some of these mtn. towns are.

They'll be fine. The top 5% are still working from home and the Fed just saved their assets again. I have no idea where they'll find labor this time around. Wages will be even cheaper, but the housing problem will be even worse. Restaurants are toast which will be weird. I could think of a few that deserved it.

**Kevo** · 04-12-2020, 07:46 PM

Just locked a refi this evening at 3.25%

My mortgage broker thinks rates may come down further. He's also pretty bullish about the housing market staying intact, etc. I didn't want to wait because I think appraisals are going to come down if real estate stalls.
I'm currently somewhere around 65% LTV. I think realistically my house could above the 75% LTV level by the mid summer if shit doesn't get back on track.

I also expect a lot of servicers like Mr Cooper to go bankrupt in the next couple months, which will narrow the competition for origination and hurt refi rates.

Anyway, going to save a couple hundred dollars a month going forward.

**volklpowdermaniac** · 04-12-2020, 08:08 PM

Not sure the hate on Boise, yeah it’s not perfect but damn I Wish I had bought in Boise like 7-10 years ago, now I’m thinking its ABQ (is that too crazy?) - close access to recreation, mountains, good weather and still in need of some TLC.

Also when I was interviewing at hospitals in Sacramento I thought it was really underrated...: sure you still have taxes and other expenses of Cali, but 2 hours to SF and Tahoe, and awesome sunny dry weather, seems like a no brained. Saw decent houses in 300k to 500k right around UC Davis med campus. Just seems like Bay Area can’t hold like this and people will look to press out and buying now could be the smart play. Alas I’m usually a day late and a dollar short so Probably just stating the obvious at this point

**Skidog** · 04-13-2020, 05:44 AM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

I think that you'll find many of them are quite resilient, because their fanbase is made up of upper middle class white folk and, in Bend's case, the children of upper middle class white folks.

Different story when all the shit in their little town had to close forever. Doesn't make that ski town vacation as appealing to most.

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**Name Redacted** · 04-13-2020, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by Skidog

Different story when all the shit in their little town had to close forever. Doesn't make that ski town vacation as appealing to most.

Some businesses will die, for sure. We lost our favorite restaurant already. But many businesses were through most of busy season already. We only missed a few profitable weeks, and got 3/4 of a pretty good season. It is gonna hurt, but the businesses that stay around will just have a bigger piece of the pie. You aren't going to see the entire town go under. This summer might still be a little slow, but next winter is going to come raging back I have a feeling.

As far as housing, they are still finishing up a shitton of affordable deed restricted housing projects, and regular housing too. It'll be interesting to see what the end result is when all of those get on the market. With this virus pumping the brakes we might even come out with a surplus of housing in the short term. It'll be interesting to see if they lighten up some of the deed restrictions or if prices start dropping.

**Kevo** · 04-13-2020, 08:13 AM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

Some businesses will die, for sure. We lost our favorite restaurant already. But many businesses were through most of busy season already. We only missed a few profitable weeks, and got 3/4 of a pretty good season. It is gonna hurt, but the businesses that stay around will just have a bigger piece of the pie. You aren't going to see the entire town go under. This summer might still be a little slow, but next winter is going to come raging back I have a feeling.

As far as housing, they are still finishing up a shitton of affordable deed restricted housing projects, and regular housing too. It'll be interesting to see what the end result is when all of those get on the market. With this virus pumping the brakes we might even come out with a surplus of housing in the short term. It'll be interesting to see if they lighten up some of the deed restrictions or if prices start dropping.

Who is going to buy the deed restricted housing now? I'd bet that a huge portion of deed restricted buyers in resort towns no longer have consistent income. Everyone other than emergency services, healthcare and utility workers are out of work in resort towns.

**4matic** · 04-13-2020, 08:14 AM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Who is going to buy the deed restricted housing now?

The rules will change.

**Name Redacted** · 04-13-2020, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Who is going to buy the deed restricted housing now? I'd bet that a huge portion of deed restricted buyers in resort towns no longer have consistent income. Everyone other than emergency services, healthcare and utility workers are out of work in resort towns.

Exactly. Most of these units aren't even finished yet, but they have the funding so they are going to finish them.

BTW, healthcare ain't doing all that great either. Emergency rooms are all there is. Everything else is basically shut down. Construction is still going though, so are breweries and distilleries, at least partially.

**Conundrum** · 04-13-2020, 08:24 AM

Please keep these perceptions of Boise going.

**ColMan** · 04-13-2020, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by volklpowdermaniac

Not sure the hate on Boise, yeah it’s not perfect but damn I Wish I had bought in Boise like 7-10 years ago, now I’m thinking its ABQ (is that too crazy?) - close access to recreation, mountains, good weather and still in need of some TLC.

I was thinking the same thing a few years back when I was in ABQ. Then I talked to a neighbor who grew up there, went to UNM, etc. and goes back down often to see family. His response was that the crime rate is terrible and public schools are shit. Until both improve, I don't think you will see a Boise-like bump.

**fastfred** · 04-13-2020, 08:57 AM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Who is going to buy the deed restricted housing now? I'd bet that a huge portion of deed restricted buyers in resort towns no longer have consistent income. Everyone other than emergency services, healthcare and utility workers are out of work in resort towns.

this is just another example of the doom and gloom thinking
it's easy to do
in 2009 did I think my property would double in value? No.
in 2009 did I think things would return to even the most basic level of normal? Hell even after 2001 things were bumpy. Shit came back so hard people didn't know what was going on
breckenridge is all about escape for the average person, the desire to goto disney world and pretend that life is fucking awesome is not going away any time soon

everyone thinks they have some chart and understanding of how a ski town, mtn town operates, I'm going to go out on a limb and say after living in one for just about my whole life at this point everyone can suck a dick thinking they know whats up, there is so much money floating around here its insane

shit is coming back hard with a vengance

**406** · 04-13-2020, 09:06 AM

house on my block same sq ft as mine just sold in ~1 day for 23% more than we paid in late 2016, for $5k over asking. 19 year old original kitchen, slightly larger lot than ours, but they don't have a view. Amazed anyone is buying, but I guess my zip in San Diego is still hot. Will be interesting to see if family moves in or if it becomes a rental.

**AdironRider** · 04-13-2020, 09:12 AM

I think everyone is missing that currently, it is overwhelmingly low income people that are getting fucked economically (retail / service / restaurant etc workers), and they weren't the ones buying houses in the first place.

Until the inevitable recession starts hitting white collar workers en masse, the housing market will stay strong. Just because there is a virus doesn't mean people don't need a place to live.

**dunfree** · 04-13-2020, 09:25 AM

Uh, it’s hit white collar workers en masse. they might not know it though.

Now, the investor class? They getting money bazooka’d at them. They’ll do fine.

**glademaster** · 04-13-2020, 09:29 AM

Originally Posted by dunfree

Uh, it’s hit white collar workers en masse. they might not know it though.

Now, the investor class? They getting money bazooka’d at them. They’ll do fine.

Nah, it's just the poor losers who were only a few years away from having their jobs automated out of existence anyway. If they would just hurry up and die already we would all be better off.

Shit's going to get downright Dickensian out there.

**AdironRider** · 04-13-2020, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by dunfree

Uh, it’s hit white collar workers en masse. they might not know it though.

Now, the investor class? They getting money bazooka’d at them. They’ll do fine.

If the country at least has the capability to attempt a comeback this summer, the white collars will be fine. They are at worst furloughed currently, collecting their paycheck via PPP loans and keeping their health insurance. Meanwhile hair dressers like my sister have been unemployed since the second week of March and are starting week 6-7 of getting fucked.

We enter Q3 still locked down though once the PPP loan guarantee timeframe expires and it is going to be a bloodbath for everyone.

**fastfred** · 04-13-2020, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by AdironRider

We enter Q3 still locked down though once the PPP loan guarantee timeframe expires and it is going to be a bloodbath for everyone.

as someone who hasn't paid much attention to the "lock down" yeah go ahead and flame me
the amount of traffic when it started was pretty sketch, like not much
traffic has picked up every day since and will continue to do so
what does that mean? people look around and don't see anyone sick and dying so they are starting to go about their business
this is america sure you have good americans following the rules but a large part of the population isn't going to do what they are told

sure there is going to be carnage but not as much as people are expecting this isn't nuclear fallout

**dunfree** · 04-13-2020, 10:07 AM

Bubbles.

**wordbird** · 04-13-2020, 10:53 AM

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are. By the time summer hits, when 12 weeks of additional payments end, things will look very different. And at that point we will probably have some level of white collar layoffs at that point, whether they are massive(10% of white collar of workforce or more) before the virus after-effects of the virus are done I'm not going to predict. I'm guessing that's where the benchmark for a housing market discount approximately lies.

*excluding college students and very young people that haven't even worked for 2 quarters to qualify for unemployment and under the table paid people maybe some uber drivers. I'm very confused who the grocery stores are hiring right now, they are basically limited to teenagers as their labor pool for very short-term.