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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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07-26-2022, 01:02 PM #22501
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07-26-2022, 01:18 PM #22502
Another brick. More incentives:
After two years of not being able to build homes fast enough to keep up with demand, the nation’s homebuilders are now experiencing a slowdown in sales and an increase in supply.
Sales of newly built homes fell more than 8% in June from the prior month and were 17% lower than June of 2021, according to a report Tuesday from the U.S. Census. Inventory also rose to a 9.3-month supply, up from 5.6 months at the end of last year.
Chief executives of major builders are saying they have to respond more quickly to the sudden turnaround in the market, in part by boosting incentives.
Pulte Group, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, reported Tuesday that net new orders for its homes in the second quarter were lower by 23% from last year. The company’s cancelation rate was 15%, compared with 7% in the prior year period.
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07-26-2022, 03:04 PM #22503
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07-26-2022, 04:01 PM #22504
Summer, if money was no object, there are a few homes I would like to buy. Thing is, I look at the closed comps and the sellers are listed way over the closed comps, so I would definitely be offending some listing agents with my offers.
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07-26-2022, 04:44 PM #22505
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07-26-2022, 05:16 PM #22506
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07-27-2022, 08:04 AM #22507
NAR says next year will be a good time to buy!
Signed contracts to purchase existing homes dropped 20% in June compared with the same month a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said.
Pending home sales also fell a wider-than-expected 8.6% in June from May. Economists polled by Dow Jones had predicted a 1% drop. The decline coincided with mortgage rates soaring to over 6% last month.
The NAR is now forecasting total sales for this year will be down 13%, but that sales should start to rise in early 2023.
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08-01-2022, 08:40 AM #22508
Life in a mountain town -
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/u...e-housing.html
Aaron Clark, 43, who owns a window-washing business, lost his long-term rental this past spring when the landlord sold the property for well beyond what Clark could afford. Knowing the exorbitant cost of all the other options around him, Clark moved into the box truck he uses to shuttle his ladders and washing equipment.
Inside the truck, he has a bed and cabinets, and he recently added amenities such as a sink with running water and solar power. He also got a refrigerator, so he no longer has to keep restocking an icebox for his food. Out the back is a shower hose with heated water.
Each night, when he’s done working, he drives out into the wilderness to park for the night. One recent day, he found a spot at the end of a potholed dirt road, next to a stream, where he spent a bit of time assessing the cryptocurrency market on his computer and then played fetch with his dog. Clark said he had found joy in the lifestyle, which at least has allowed him to save for when he eventually reenters the housing market.
But it has its challenges.
“It is a drain, every day, deciding, ‘Where am I going to park, where am I going to go?’” he said. “You get off work, you are tired, you are hungry, you are dirty, and now you have to decide what you are going to do next.”Last edited by Toadman; 08-01-2022 at 05:25 PM.
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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08-01-2022, 08:56 AM #22509Registered User
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mtn towns are fucked
I am in complete disbelief at what is happening
the demand for services and the growth that is occuring is out of control
mtn people used to take care of shit themselves and if they needed help they had a old fashion barn raising where everyone helped out for the day and the evening ended with everyone being shit faced
but now it's the monied class that demands services and doesn't want to lift a finger
yet all they do is cry about the prices well fuck you
just had the same conversation with a buddy this morning about bailing selling out and walking away with a shit boat of money he did it a few years ago but damnit I'm booked out till next summer with work aint' happen this week
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08-01-2022, 08:57 AM #22510
I really liked seeing that article on the NYT this morning right next to an article about a guy who bought a 1.4 million dollar home on Fire Island who spent 400k remodeling and now Airbnbs it for 3k a night so that he can afford his mortgage.
What a dichotomy.
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08-01-2022, 09:10 AM #22511
My wife and I have been contemplating buying a condo as a rental property for some time. We found one we really liked over the weekend, but it's a tough decision right now whether to pull the trigger. It just seems like right now is probably the wrong time to buy. We got a quote from a mortgage guy for 6.5% for a 30 year. That was a bit of sticker shock! Still seeing if we can find better financing, but apparently rental properties typically have higher rates. Too bad I don't have enough socked away to buy it with cash.
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08-01-2022, 09:13 AM #22512
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08-01-2022, 09:36 AM #22513Registered User
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at this point I don't know when I good time will be to buy in resort area
I just don't see anything crashing to the bottom could be totally wrong but don't see it
I see a slowing down and I see shit bags asking top dollar for a shit hole maybe not getting what they want
but what do I know other than 20 years ago was a good time to buy and I think I was right around 6% then
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08-01-2022, 09:57 AM #22514Registered User
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08-01-2022, 10:19 AM #22515
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08-01-2022, 10:23 AM #22516
Yeah, would probably agree. I don't think vacation homes will see the same downturn. Not many are looking to cash out on their vacation home. I don't envision the same explosion of inventory that I'm seeing in city-ish locales, where people are trying to cash out at the peak before downsizing or moving away to cheaper areas (boomer retirement plan).
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08-01-2022, 10:27 AM #22517
Yeah, seems like not a great time to buy. Rental income is interesting. The roi is decent but you can do better elsewhere with knowledge, but in the end with a home you have a fixed asset that can be sold off hopefully for a nice profit all while taking in supplemental income. When the market drops some more I'm going to buy something. Maybe a duplex to have some redundancy in case I lose a renter for a period of time. I'm definitely going with a prop management company. Let them deal with the bs.
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08-01-2022, 10:43 AM #22518
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08-01-2022, 11:54 AM #22519
The saying is "marry the home, date the rate". You'll likely get a chance to refi at a lower rate since your plan is to hold long term. My lender said she wasn't seeing much difference between ARM rates and fixed (I'm looking to buy personally, just out of state where the rental #'s work)
Still no inventory in my area.- 167 properties available a year ago in CB area, 153 today.
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08-01-2022, 12:20 PM #22520The saying is "marry the home, date the rate". You'll likely get a chance to refi at a lower rate since your plan is to hold long term.
Around here, transaction volume seems unchanged yet closing costs have seemed to come down from full retard. As mentioned previously, I think there is still a stupid amount of cash sloshing around the front range and those people have to mountains please. Combine that with the folks relocating for the pricey costal cities with their phat remote paychecks and it looks right now like a soft landing. Wanna bees on the margin needed cheap money to make it happen probably ain't making in happen. But build costs (materials) are coming down and the rich people still got big piles.
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08-01-2022, 01:12 PM #22521
If you are talking about a ski town, good luck with that. I can only talk about Big Sky, but the property management companies have no workers. No one who works for a living can afford to live there.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums"Zee damn fat skis are ruining zee piste !" -Oscar Schevlin
"Hike up your skirt and grow a dick you fucking crybaby" -what Bunion said to Harry at the top of The Headwaters
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08-01-2022, 01:54 PM #22522
No, zero interest in a ski town. Overpriced shit and I'm not looking to screw over ski town employees...I was one. Not that I'd be screwing them, but just to make ends meet the rent costs would be stupid high. I want a relatively affordable purchase whereas I can charge reasonable rent fees. If I had fu money I'd be building affordable housing and making minimal profits.
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08-01-2022, 02:05 PM #22523
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08-01-2022, 02:05 PM #22524
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08-01-2022, 02:12 PM #22525Registered User
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