Real Estate Crash thread

**snowaddict91** · 02-20-2021, 08:11 PM

Originally Posted by goldenboy

700 if you can find one in Crested Butte.

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I can't believe I talked my dad out of buying real estate in the Gunnison valley in 2010. Wish I could go back in time and slap my dumb college ass.

**Whiteroom_Guardian** · 02-20-2021, 09:07 PM

Sure would love some of that crash everyone keeps talking about.

**schuss** · 02-21-2021, 06:45 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Holy shit get over the partisan bullshit. We get it. You hated trump. But at the time getting this thing rolled out was at utmost importance. More than people scamming it or whatever. All of it was money into the system. It’s so whiney.
(Inserts “non”biased politico article)

I just grabbed the first article that reported it. I was just refuting the points made before. I'd like to be non-partisan on this and I don't see how pandemic/disaster relief should ever be partisan, but they found a way. The original PPP bill was decent with decent controls, the problem was executive stripping of oversight and no legislative action to enforce oversight. Regardless of party, that should be everyone's base expectation.

**Toadman** · 02-21-2021, 05:14 PM

Okay, which one of you mags wrote this? Confess!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...?siteid=yhoof2

Dear MarketWatch,

My wife and I are both federal employees and will retire in a few years with total (combined) pensions of around $10,000 a month. Our nest egg for retirement (TSP plus savings) will be another $2 million or so. Social Security will kick in on top of that.

We both love skiing and ski towns, but also lakes with forest running and mountain biking trails. It seems hard to find affordable ski towns that aren’t too touristy with good lakes and water sports nearby. We’d prefer not to be too far from a “real” city to get our urban fix, when needed.

We have $200,000 available for a down payment. That would put a house budget at around $1 million. We’ve looked at Park City — it’s pricey these days. Aspen Valley is way out of reach, as is Breckenridge. East Coast skiing is icy and unpredictable. Places like Whitefish (in Montana) or Crested Butte (in Colorado) are nice but remote and hard to get to. Same with Durango. New Mexico lacks the lake options (ie, Santa Fe, Taos). Lake Tahoe is congested and full of casinos and second homes.

I feel like we must be missing something. Any ideas?

Thanks!

**m2711c** · 02-21-2021, 05:16 PM

What was the reply?

**Kevo** · 02-21-2021, 05:27 PM

^Winter Park, McCall and Sandpoint.

**Hopeless Sinner** · 02-21-2021, 05:38 PM

Not familiar w WP, seems like McCall is going to get even more crowded very quickly. Live in WA on a few hundred acres, zero state income tax, and drive to Sandpoint to ski.

**fastfred** · 02-21-2021, 07:26 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Okay, which one of you mags wrote this? Confess!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...?siteid=yhoof2

Dear MarketWatch,

My wife and I are both federal employees and will retire in a few years with total (combined) pensions of around $10,000 a month. Our nest egg for retirement (TSP plus savings) will be another $2 million or so. Social Security will kick in on top of that.

We both love skiing and ski towns, but also lakes with forest running and mountain biking trails. It seems hard to find affordable ski towns that aren’t too touristy with good lakes and water sports nearby. We’d prefer not to be too far from a “real” city to get our urban fix, when needed.

We have $200,000 available for a down payment. That would put a house budget at around $1 million. We’ve looked at Park City — it’s pricey these days. Aspen Valley is way out of reach, as is Breckenridge. East Coast skiing is icy and unpredictable. Places like Whitefish (in Montana) or Crested Butte (in Colorado) are nice but remote and hard to get to. Same with Durango. New Mexico lacks the lake options (ie, Santa Fe, Taos). Lake Tahoe is congested and full of casinos and second homes.

I feel like we must be missing something. Any ideas?

Thanks!

read that letter back in november can't remember where denver post or wall street journal the bullshit made up letter has been going around

my response:

fuck you we don't need another dooshbag so stay whereever the fuck you are you should have skipped the cushy do nothing federal job and moved hear at age 19 partied your fucking brains out for ten years all the acid mushrooms coke weed and alcohol you coud handle hell remember triping my balls off on acid at copper once when I was 22 waiting for a friend at the base to meet up after getting a few runs in and couldn't take my skis off cause I thought I'd die if they came off so I waited he never showed up not sure if it was two minutes or twenty and I just kept skiing what were you posers doing at age 22? sucking uncle sams dick hoping to retire and take my cash cow million dollar home from me? so you can retire in paradise? i hear ohio is real nice in the wintertime maybe that makes the best financial scence? Not everyone gets to get what I got sorry bro not sorry

**RoooR** · 02-22-2021, 07:55 AM

Fred arn't rich people moving to ski towns literally why you're rich now?

**fastfred** · 02-22-2021, 08:14 AM

"I smoke my wood to the roach, like I ain't rich"
-the game, welcome home

**Foggy_Goggles** · 02-22-2021, 10:29 AM

I read that article and said, "Huh, I guess those are the kind of people that are moving to Winter Park". They I looked up Realtor.com and it doesn't look like there are any single family homes listed for less that $1.2mill. Oops...I guess retirees with $200K down and $10K a month can't afford to live here.

Time to raise prices again I guess. And Kevo, sounds like your are pretty big on the armchair economist thing these days, so I've give you a a few more topics to research.

True hard dollar build costs around get going at about $350/sq. ft around here. That does not include the lot, utility infrastructure, professional services or permitting. A good GC is going to charge you 20% on top of that. So you tell me where affordable is supposed to come from in that equation.

The wage scale is what is fucked. When the conversation is "real wages haven't kept up with the price of housing", those paying the wages steer the conversation in the direction of "affordable housing". The lap dog wage slaves eat it up.

**ride550** · 02-22-2021, 04:37 PM

https://kemc.substack.com/p/trying-t...tm_source=digg

recent article on bozeman RE market

**Self Jupiter** · 02-22-2021, 04:40 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Not really. It's been flat here in the northeast for over a decade. It's not always a roller coaster.

I put together a post somewhere on this thread with data that refuted this statement the last time you made it.

ETA maybe that was for New England and not ‘the Northeast.’’

What do you think is holding your area back from appreciating? Genuinely curious and not trolling.

**Skidog** · 02-22-2021, 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by Self Jupiter

I put together a post somewhere on this thread with data that refuted this statement the last time you made it.

ETA maybe that was for New England and not ‘the Northeast.’’

What do you think is holding your area back from appreciating? Genuinely curious and not trolling.

Doesn't benny live in a condo in a ct burb? That's your answer there. Not a huge market for condos in ritzy ct.

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**shirk** · 02-22-2021, 04:54 PM

It could be worse...you could be here with us in Vancouver.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/lea...to-buy-a-home/

Second least affordable city in the world.

Oh and people are still buying at $500k (roughly $400k USD) over listing.

https://www.straight.com/news/vancou...isted-price-of

Apparently in Vancouver it only goes up all the time forever and ever and ever.

**AdironRider** · 02-22-2021, 05:00 PM

Originally Posted by ride550

https://kemc.substack.com/p/trying-t...tm_source=digg

recent article on bozeman RE market

I read this and I can't help but think this guy has passed on plenty of houses because they aren't good enough for him. Guaranteed he is refusing a condo, and I'm betting is very location specific.

That isn't to shortchange housing problems, but I'm not buying 600k has zero options in Bozeman. Few maybe, but definitely not zero. Sure enough a 30 second zillow search proves this right.

**Self Jupiter** · 02-22-2021, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by Skidog

Doesn't benny live in a condo in a ct burb? That's your answer there. Not a huge market for condos in ritzy ct.

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Round here the COVID market jacked up the price of suburban single families so high that it took a lot of the local condo market with it.

**Hopeless Sinner** · 02-22-2021, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by Self Jupiter

I put together a post somewhere on this thread with data that refuted this statement the last time you made it.

ETA maybe that was for New England and not ‘the Northeast.’’

What do you think is holding your area back from appreciating? Genuinely curious and not trolling.

Not really sure what areas specifically you're talking about but there was price appreciation as the stock market climbed out of 2008 bottom. Of course the most dramatic increases were in city centers. The Tax Act of 2017 knocked the crap out of the RE market (+-20%) by eliminating deductions for RE tax. Of course once covid hit all bets were off as the cities emptied the high RE tax areas rebounded.

**sirbumpsalot** · 02-22-2021, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by ride550

https://kemc.substack.com/p/trying-t...tm_source=digg

recent article on bozeman RE market

Its bozeman....jeez. How many of these types will chase the market and end up underwater in 5yrs when the bottom falls out. Did I mention that THIS IS BOZEMAN?

**Self Jupiter** · 02-22-2021, 05:21 PM

I’m responding to Benny who made a similar posting about New England prices ‘’remaining flat / not recovering to pre-recession levels’’ about a year ago which wasn’t accurate, as you said.

**RoooR** · 02-22-2021, 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by ride550

https://kemc.substack.com/p/trying-t...tm_source=digg

recent article on bozeman RE market

I'm sure there are plenty of developers willing to allocate capital to build condos near downtown.

But property owners continue to think that density next door will kill their property values:
https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/bo...g-on-w-babcock
https://montanafreepress.org/2021/01...pid-reception/

When in reality, the denser the neighborhood the MORE the lots are worth. If the lot next to yours gets turned into 6 400k condos, then just think what a developer would pay for your place. If you have the last house left in a neighborhood full of multi unit properties than your place is worth mega bux.

Bunch of anti-growth NIMBYs out here in the west.

Meanwhile here's what they're complaining about in Missoula:
https://thereedmt.com/floorplans/

Nobody I've ever talked to has gotten the point that somebody buying one of those condos is somebody that is no longer outbidding you on a dilapidated Rattlesnake home.

**sirbumpsalot** · 02-22-2021, 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by RoooR

I'm sure there are plenty of developers willing to allocate capital to build condos near downtown.

But property owners continue to think that density next door will kill their property values:
https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/bo...g-on-w-babcock
https://montanafreepress.org/2021/01...pid-reception/

When in reality, the denser the neighborhood the MORE the lots are worth. If the lot next to yours gets turned into 6 400k condos, then just think what a developer would pay for your place. If you have the last house left in a neighborhood full of multi unit properties than your place is worth mega bux.

Bunch of anti-growth NIMBYs out here in the west.

Meanwhile here's what they're complaining about in Missoula:
https://thereedmt.com/floorplans/

Nobody I've ever talked to has gotten the point that somebody buying one of those condos is somebody that is no longer outbidding you on a dilapidated Rattlesnake home.

From what I've seen of Montana rattle snakes get 98% of the land out there. Spread out a bit! Oh wait....build on protected land? NIMBY????

**kathleenturneroverdrive** · 02-22-2021, 06:22 PM

Originally Posted by AdironRider

That isn't to shortchange housing problems, but I'm not buying 600k has zero options in Bozeman. Few maybe, but definitely not zero. Sure enough a 30 second zillow search proves this right.

The article says the guy lost out on 16 offers on homes and condos in the last few months. We legit don't have the inventory for someone to make that many offers while also being super picky about where he lives.

**char_** · 02-22-2021, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by kathleenturneroverdrive

The article says the guy lost out on 16 offers on homes and condos in the last few months. We legit don't have the inventory for someone to make that many offers while also being super picky about where he lives.

There are ~4 houses (2 bed +, House) on the market in Bozeman for less than $700,000 listed on Zillow.

There are 8 if you include condos, townhomes, houses and multi family. Maybe get up to 12 if you include Gallatin Gateway and Belgrade.

I guess that constitutes lots of options.

**Toadman** · 02-22-2021, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by shirk

It could be worse...you could be here with us in Vancouver.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/lea...to-buy-a-home/

Second least affordable city in the world.

Oh and people are still buying at $500k (roughly $400k USD) over listing.

https://www.straight.com/news/vancou...isted-price-of

Apparently in Vancouver it only goes up all the time forever and ever and ever.

Well, you have all that CCP money desperately trying to get out of that country. Vancouver seems to be a good place for the well connected Communist Chinese to move their money to for safe keeping.