Real Estate Crash thread

[Ted Striker]

Remember that the story should be how infectual the federal government has been for a majority of the population for just about 40 years. Just assholes faux fighting with assholes for their own personal gains. Meanwhile, we the people, are so divided and uninformed that we just fight with each other.

Yeah, it's definitely a feature not a bug.

Yeah but the prices of housing moderating or decreasing will not be the problem. People not being able to afford their home will be the problem.

Without question.

So if there is truly all this equity, cash buyers, second homes, speculative STRs etc. then there is no problem right? Or will the feds just double and triple down on residential real estate being a can't lose proposition?

Ha! No problem for some. Different story for the Joneses. My crystal ball isn't any better than anyone else's, but the speculative money exits when returns are elsewhere.

/obvious guy

[Ted Striker]

Nope. Too much debt.
I feared rising rates 15 years ago. Now it’s a non issue.

We ride this bitch until the dollar implodes.

It ends either way.

[Mustonen]

Aside from what they say.

I know they can’t do much. The FEDERAL gubmint. Aka the taxpayers. Can’t afford much rate hike.

The anti-federal reserve will keep printing and easing and pumping until this horse is dead.

I don’t disagree with any of that, not that it matters what I agree with, just not sure I believe rates won’t move before 2024.

[liv2ski]

I wonder what % of new mortgages are ARMs.

Not many Ice, as rates are not much higher on a 30 Year fixed and unless the client has a definite short window (7 years or less) why take an ARM with a 30 year fixed under 3%?

[Core Shot]

Not many Ice, as rates are not much higher on a 30 Year fixed and unless the client has a definite short window (7 years or less) why take an ARM with a 30 year fixed under 3%?

I was going to refi a jumbo with an arm. Broker said take fixed since it’s the same rate. He’s never ever seen this.

[liv2ski]

Not sure on a Jumbo ARM as I haven't priced one forever but on FNMA loan limits you save about .50% going with a 5 or 7 year ARM compared to a fixed rate.

OK, you made me look. At 60% ltv, slam dunk borrower was .125% to .25% lower in rate than a 30 Year fixed, so ya, just go 30 year.

[uglymoney]

I just want to check into this thread to say how depressing the prices are out west. Like...we'll never ever get out of Iowa except on camping vacations.

I know this is great news to those of you already living in the mountains. Congrats.

I can no longer even get on Trulia to dream big and flip through listings for an hour of dreamy reprieve. Instead I'll fixate on a 600k trailer house and scratch my head at my lack of foresight or my innate inability to act on my hunches.

On the other hand...I only owe a few thousand on our modest house and can afford milk and butter in between fighting insurance to pay up for derecho damage.

As desirable places have sucked more brains out of here this place has become ever more of a shithole. Formerly tolerable. Now I come home from vacation and wonder why. Close to my parents and my wife's parents. Otherwise...meh...our besties live in Colorado.

My misfortune is really great for you guys. Definitely keeping the riff raff out.





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[liv2ski]

I just want to check into this thread to say how depressing the prices are out west. Like...we'll never ever get out of Iowa except on camping vacations.

I know this is great news to those of you already living in the mountains. Congrats.

I can no longer even get on Trulia to dream big and flip through listings for an hour of dreamy reprieve. Instead I'll fixate on a 600k trailer house and scratch my head at my lack of foresight or my innate inability to act on my hunches.

On the other hand...I only owe a few thousand on our modest house and can afford milk and butter in between fighting insurance to pay up for derecho damage.

As desirable places have sucked more brains out of here this place has become ever more of a shithole. Formerly tolerable. Now I come home from vacation and wonder why. Close to my parents and my wife's parents. Otherwise...meh...our besties live in Colorado.

My misfortune is really great for you guys. Definitely keeping the riff raff out.





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Fuck dood, vibes. I never heard of derecho damage before. I am with you on the lack of foresight or inability to act in 2012 when the deals were there.

[old_newguy]

I just want to check into this thread to say how depressing the prices are out west. Like...we'll never ever get out of Iowa except on camping vacations.

I know this is great news to those of you already living in the mountains. Congrats.

I can no longer even get on Trulia to dream big and flip through listings for an hour of dreamy reprieve. Instead I'll fixate on a 600k trailer house and scratch my head at my lack of foresight or my innate inability to act on my hunches.

On the other hand...I only owe a few thousand on our modest house and can afford milk and butter in between fighting insurance to pay up for derecho damage.

As desirable places have sucked more brains out of here this place has become ever more of a shithole. Formerly tolerable. Now I come home from vacation and wonder why. Close to my parents and my wife's parents. Otherwise...meh...our besties live in Colorado.

My misfortune is really great for you guys. Definitely keeping the riff raff out.





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Don’t worry, some of us who are here, but don’t own are eyeing moving to cheaper pastures with decent healthcare professional or WFH salaries.

Hell, this has really accelerated my interest in leaving the country.

[uglymoney]

Fuck dood, vibes. I never heard of derecho damage before. I am with you on the lack of foresight or inability to act in 2012 when the deals were there.

Thanks. We are doing okay in plenty of other ways so no need for vibes.

Really just lots of reflection for both the wife and I coming off of the pandemic and myself turning 50 here in a few days.

My goal has been is to get this house paid off and then plan our late working years/ retirement strategy which certainly involves not living here full time. I'm just late to the party and caught in the tumble cycle raising two kids and crazy jobs.

[uglymoney]

Hell, this has really accelerated my interest in leaving the country.

That too. If that was a viable option.





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[Foggy_Goggles]

Definitely keeping the riff raff out

I don't know about that. Plenty of shitbags out and about. What do you do for work? The demographic trend is a bit of a chicken or the egg thing. Did the corporations move to SLC, Denver etc. and the workers followed or did the corporations move to where the workers already are?

There has always been a premium to live in the "nice" places. I mean San Diego or Houston? Most people have the same answer. The problem is that people have realized that their lives are increasingly mobile and such that premium has increased.

[Foggy_Goggles]

My goal has been is to get this house paid off and then plan our late working years/ retirement strategy which certainly involves not living here full time. I'm just late to the party and caught in the tumble cycle raising two kids and crazy jobs.

The run up in real estate prices in the west has been leading in influx of jobs for at least 20 years. It really fucks up the whole, get job>move>buy house thing. There are ways to play that but you probably don't want to here that. That said, moving to a ski town will probably be disappointing. Community is disappearing. Everything is bought and paid for. Its just like the city but with more puffy jackets and yoga pants.

Nobody likes it. Even the realtors and getting the fuck out, but working here of course. T he game is over. All the nice places ain't nice anymore because they are full of shit bags. Personally, I'm just gonna ride it out because I haven't figured out anything better.

[uglymoney]

Like $3000x2 his and her dynafit setups to ski with their kids at WP. Not naming names but they live close to you and last I checked they could barely ski. Lol. Good on them I guess. I'm still rocking Fritchis because I barely leave the gates.

It is all a puzzle.

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[old_newguy]

The run up in real estate prices in the west has been leading in influx of jobs for at least 20 years. It really fucks up the whole, get job>move>buy house thing. There are ways to play that but you probably don't want to here that. That said, moving to a ski town will probably be disappointing. Community is disappearing. Everything is bought and paid for. Its just like the city but with more puffy jackets and yoga pants.

Nobody likes it. Even the realtors and getting the fuck out, but working here of course. T he game is over. All the nice places ain't nice anymore because they are full of shit bags. Personally, I'm just gonna ride it out because I haven't figured out anything better.

I remember telling my wife something like this 10+ years ago about Bend. Felt like CA to me. Everyone flashing cash via consumption and overcrowded. Took her a few years to come to the same conclusion.

Still rather live there than lots of other places though.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Like $3000x2 his and her dynafit setups to ski with their kids at WP. Not naming names but they live close to you and last I checked they could barely ski. Lol. Good on them I guess. I'm still rocking Fritchis because I barely leave the gates.

It is all a puzzle.

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Sounds about right. Luckily we've got enough Wranglers and Carhartts to keep it real. I get my piece and quiet I've just had to change my techniques. It's still mostly awesome people around here the difference is we don't run the show anymore. The machine plays no favorites. When it's time for us to go, we'll be gone.

[RoooR]

Never know such a whiny bunch of upper middle class people could exist. Benny apparently thinks it's still 2005 in Asia. Yeah, Asian programmers want what we have, and they're getting it. Not doing outsourced grunt work for American companies, but working for Asian startups and conglomerates that give them equity packages more lucrative than anything they'd get here. It's almost as if it's not a zero sum game! Soon they can move to mountain towns in their respective countries and then 5 years after that complain about all the new residents.

You'all need to be reminded that you live in the coolest fucking country in the history of humankind. We've got Cajun swamp people, tech bros, survivalists, refugees, ski bums and everything in-between. The rich cultural tapestry that is America is so fucking beautiful and amazing it brings tears to my eyes. And that's before even mentioning that you can live anywhere from a tropical island to a barren tundra.

Plus we literally live in the future. Look how awesome your mountain bike is. Your skis. How small the scar is from your ACL surgery a couple years back and how complete your recovery The fact that when you get back from that ride you can cook a meal from the finest ingredients from around the world, drink a beer from anywhere in the world, and watch any movie ever made at the push of a button.

Everything's amazing and nobody's happy.

[klauss]

New taxes and regs are gonna have to start popping up on non-owner occupied or STRs if things don't ease.

My long term renters in sw PDX are finishing a new home in Canby by one of the big public builders (lennar, toll, etc). Have to decide to sell, 1031 exchange, or look for new tenants. Problem with 1031 is there's no inventory where I'd want property. Problem with selling is what do I do with the cap gain - nowhere to put it?

[DeepHelmet]

The last sale I did my client told me his loan officer could get a lower rate on a jumbo loan than on conventional so he put less down. Never seen that before, and not sure it's still the case. Definitely a weird scene.

[Buster Highmen]

Thanks. We are doing okay in plenty of other ways so no need for vibes.

Really just lots of reflection for both the wife and I coming off of the pandemic and myself turning 50 here in a few days.

My goal has been is to get this house paid off and then plan our late working years/ retirement strategy which certainly involves not living here full time. I'm just late to the party and caught in the tumble cycle raising two kids and crazy jobs.

There's better options than the over exploited destinations. Ogden. Baker City. Dolores. La Grande. Grand Junction. Helena. Butte.
Chin up, keep faith that by thinking carefully, you can find what you want.

[uglymoney]

Thanks Buster. I could deal with GJ, Montrose, no problem. Beautiful area.

Also, that Euro 2022 thread is as chin up as it gets. Especially those dates.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

There's better options than the over exploited destinations. Ogden. Baker City. Dolores. La Grande. Grand Junction. Helena. Butte.
Chin up, keep faith that by thinking carefully, you can find what you want.

Not sure that I would include Ogden in that list. It’s basically North SLC. A surgeon I work with is relocating there to be closer to family and he said the market is terrible.


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[Foggy_Goggles]

GJ, Montrose, no problem. Beautiful area.

If the list is "awesome places where you don't need a good paying job near by", the game is a bit different than, "I need a fuckin' JOB to pay this mortgage". Wages are slowly going up in Junction and a few companies plus the BLM have moved there. Also, be careful about the weather. Plenty of smoky 20deg. inverted days in the Grand Valley and the summers are long and hot..and the wind!

[Buster Highmen]

Not sure that I would include Ogden in that list. It’s basically North SLC. A surgeon I work with is relocating there to be closer to family and he said the market is terrible.

I'm pretty familiar with Ogden for a variety of reasons and I would say your surgeon buddy is full of shit. There's loads of decent houses for less than $300k and access to recreation is fantastic.

The point is, if we allow ourselves to get swept away by the glamor of destinations, expect to be disappointed.

[Buster Highmen]

If the list is "awesome places where you don't need a good paying job near by", the game is a bit different than, "I need a fuckin' JOB to pay this mortgage". Wages are slowly going up in Junction and a few companies plus the BLM have moved there. Also, be careful about the weather. Plenty of smoky 20deg. inverted days in the Grand Valley and the summers are long and hot..and the wind!

You left out their addressing system.
;-) .

Point is, there's good options in places other than AspenJacksonHoleSunValleySummitBozemanville.