Real Estate Crash thread

[fastfred]

in 2009 when I was sitting around with my thumb up my ass a buddy and me were doing bong hits and talking economics
he says x amount of housing units need to be built every year in this country can't remmber maybe it was 250k
during 2008 - 2012 lets say the number of units being built was close to nothing he said we are screwed once everything starts catching up and all those missing units that never got built are needed
so here we are ten years later paying for it at least I'm not paying for it I'm getting paid

[Hopeless Sinner]

Lots of people moved to their vacation spots AND held on to their primary residence. That has taken a large volume of housing off the market.

[Conundrum]

You've finally come around to seeing the downside of the Boise boom?
.

I wouldn't say I've finally come around. I've been worried about it for awhile and have never been a fan. Just thought it would take longer to happen. In '05 or so I was working remotely to open up Idaho for an SLC company and had to go down every month. Got to know it a little and thought Boise would get there eventually and it worried me then. But I thought it would take 25-30 years to get to '05 SLC. I was not far out of college and pretty naïve. Probably still am. I'm pretty locked in for 10 or so years here, maybe a little longer. I'll make some lemonade.

[RoooR]

i’m trying to think of something cool other than homes/stonks/fairy coins/ to squat on

Sports cards, cool shoes, old electronics. I'm holding on to about 25 years of ski tech. Those old 210cm Dynastar G9s will be worth something someday right?

[sirbumpsalot]

You've finally come around to seeing the downside of the Boise boom?

The treasure valley seems like will be a testament to poorly planned, poorly zoned, lack of infrastructure mountain west living. It's looking like SLC 2.0 with worse mountain access, less connections to the outside world and somehow less infrastructure per capita because Idaho despises anything that looks like forward thinking or urban planning. Development in Boise has been left up to the free market, and the free market has decided that strip malls, parking lots, 4 lane roads with stop lights every 150 yards and chain restaurants are the way to go. It is mind boggling, but expected.

You should see west side PDX metro.....thousands of homes plopped down in old cornfields, infills in existing neighborhoods..random one-two acre lots in traditional or farm style hoods with a SFH torn down and 6-12 new houses sandwiched in with ultra moden styling.....and NO new roads, NO expanded roads, NO new shopping centers...just reuse that existing 2-lane farm road to funnel everyone to the same 30yrs old Fred Meyers....3-4 light cycles to get thru!

[Hopeless Sinner]

Wait, you think home inspectors, who by and large are referred by realtors to their clients, might be a racket?

I had an issue w selling my last house because of failing stone work and the buyers inspector was pretty astute in guessing the cause of it. They're not all dopes but, mostly they gloss over anything important so as not to queer up the deal.

[liv2ski]

Home inspectors have saved us on a few purchases, so I will continue to gladly pay a pro to crawl under, up over and everywhere in between when buying. Total inspection times are hours, so fuck off with a time limit. Don't use the realtor referral, like duh.

[Skidog]

home inspections can be helpful IME, its those fucking appraisals that cost bucks for what often is a drive by, or a simple google and comp search...couple hundred for that shit can go right out the fucking window.

[liv2ski]

^^^^^ No shit. I wish I got appraisal waivers on purchases like I do refinances. Appraisers never fail to piss me off.

[shirk]

Looking at a house for sale tomorrow. $315/sf. Apartment above the garage would cover about 60% of cost. Stupid price but it nearly makes sense.

This is how we got into the crazy Vancouver market in 2011. Bought a place with a rental that ends up covering the mortgage. We actually live in the basement suite ourselves and rent out the more prime main living area as it's the money maker. As pointed out we've also rented it slightly below top market rate so we have our choice of renters and they stay long term.

[Falcon3]

Alternately, instead of renting at 60% PITI, do AirBnB and make 100% PITI out of that rental. You get to pick your “tenants” they’re generally there shorter time frame so you can keep inspecting condition, etc. hard not to do this in desirable tourist areas.

[Harry]

Some options I'm considering:
- Crested Butte
- Silverton
- Tahoe (NV side? May be out of my budget)
- Driggs, ID
- Portugal?

Where else should I look?

Bemidji



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[Kevo]

This has been asked a million different times, a million different ways, and at the risk of getting jong'ed, I'm going to ask again.

Thinking about putting my cash into land/real estate, partly as an investment, partly as a store of value, partly as a long-term option on an area I want to live in.

Currently in Denver and have loved Colorado for over a decade, but am open to other areas. Where should I look to meet these factors?

- Primary sports: rock climbing, ice climbing, ski mountaineering
- Secondary sports: mountain biking, trail running
- Has to have stunning mountain views of some kind
- Don't need bodies of water near me.
- Ideally within a couple of hours of a commercial airport that allows me to connect out for international travel.
- I like the idea of being far north for long summer days as a second home to a southern-hemisphere place
- EU Citizen, so I have some overseas options.

Some options I'm considering:
- Crested Butte
- Silverton
- Tahoe (NV side? May be out of my budget)
- Driggs, ID
- Portugal?

Where else should I look?

Hard to beat the mountain biking in CB and the town and community is really incredible, but it has probably the most unstable, least consistent snowpack in North America. The ski mountaineering season is limited to spring time when the snow is more stable. CB mags could probably weigh in more. It's kinda close to Black Canyon for hard trad climbing. Trail running is great too. Ice climbing in CO is pretty meh outside of the San Juans, as I'm sure you know.

Silverton is extremely isolated and small. You'd have to love being in a very remote place. It has access to ice climbing and incredible alpine climbing. Trail running and mountain biking is really good.

If I was an EU citizen the Dolomites would be at the top of my list for everything you've mentioned. That area ticks every box for you.

Driggs is sweet. I'm enjoying it so far as a recent CO transplant. There is more alpine climbing than rock climbing here, but it has everything that you've mentioned and the the Jackson airport is well connected. It's probably a top 5 trail running location in the US for the 3-4 months a year that the trails are melted. It punches way above it's weight for mountain biking, too. The snowpack is way deeper and generally much more stable than CO. Ice climbing in the Tetons is a thing for sure. Ski mountaineering is full on and there is a lifetime of stuff to explore.

Maybe check out Mammoth as well as Leavenworth, Washington too.

[Tips^Up]

So far, the story goes like this.

The realtor that sold us our house Christmas 2016 had a listing about a week ago in the next town down valley. It had a lock-off basement, so piqued my interest. I drove by it, pretty blah house on a blah street in a blah neighborhood. Nothing bad, but nothing to grab my interest for the half mil price tag. But I reach out to him anyway and say let me know if you ever have something with rental potential (ADU, carriage house, apartment, lock-off, etc.) in our town. He gets back to me and says a guy in his office is bringing one online, want to look (this past) Friday?

We check it out, old but recently updated, 2-br rental house out back, small but everything we'd need. We make an offer slightly below list, first offer in. It showed 3 times yesterday, one made a full price offer. Officially listed today...the listing says look Sunday and Monday, they'll review offers Tuesday. Our realtor called back, suggested if we want it, meet the other offer. We re-wrote our offer for $1k over list, probably our highest and best. If it turns into a bidding war, we'll bow out and take it as a sign that the market is fucking bonkers. The market is fucking bonkers.

[yeahman]

Yes the market is bonkers.

[liv2ski]

^^^^^ Unpossible, but a good way to write the offer is to just say you will pay $5k more than the highest offer period. Sellers accepts and sends you the highest offer as proof. Done and done.

[goldenboy]

Hard to beat the mountain biking in CB and the town and community is really incredible, but it has probably the most unstable, least consistent snowpack in North America. The ski mountaineering season is limited to spring time when the snow is more stable. CB mags could probably weigh in more. It's kinda close to Black Canyon for hard trad climbing. Trail running is great too. Ice climbing in CO is pretty meh outside of the San Juans, as I'm sure you know.
.

I don't know if I'd agree with that assessment of the CB snowpack. As long as you have a snowmobile, the snowpack from Irwin to Paradise divide is a bit different- I'd even go so far as to compare it to the Wasatch since the snow totals are similar most years.
Closer to town, it sucks as bad as the rest of CO. And lots of places suck this season.

BurnHard- The ice climbing from CB is quite good, with the Lake City ice park only an hour and a half away and much less crowded than Ouray, not to mention all the natural ice there and in the Black. And Ouray isn't that much farther, either. I think the rock climbing is kinda meh, I've never gotten excited about the climbing at Hartman's, Harmels, or Spring Creek personally. MTB and trail running is obviously world class. Happy to chat real estate if you want to PM me.

[Benny Profane]

X

[schuss]

Weird, it's almost like supply and demand are a thing. That's an interesting selection of metros though. What about SF, Boston, Indy, Seattle?

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Yes the market is bonkers.

That's just fucking ridiculous.

[summit]

The wage scale is what is fucked. When the conversation is "real wages haven't kept up with the price of housing", those paying the wages steer the conversation in the direction of "affordable housing". The lap dog wage slaves eat it up.

MIC DROP

The conversation from those paying the wages and their government lackeys (county and town leaders) is always "hey lets make a new tax for affordable housing!" That just subsidizes the artificial wage distortion. "Rich people will pay the taxes!" But magically local workers end up paying the tax too. Who doesn't? The folks distorting wages and pushing the affordable housing to be paid by the public!

A lottery is a tax on the poor. Affordable housing is like a lottery where the benefactors are primarily the wage distorters and they throw enough bones (winning affordable housing lottery picks) to keep a tiny number of the public benefitted and the rest distracted by hanging on for hope. County and town governments get to feel good and make a few more government jobs to administer the local lottery program with fuzzy titles like Workforce Housing Director. Hopefully there is no graft or favoritism going on in who gets those coveted spots... sure...

PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!

And if you are a local who didn't win the lotto and bought a house planning to rent out a bedroom now and then on AirBnB, now you have local government trying to ban that activity under the assumption that you will obviously (ha!) choose a permanent roommate year round instead of AirBnB guest 10 days a year during peak holidays. You see, only whole home AirBnBs should be allowed because only 2nd home owners and property investors deserve high profit rentals. Teachers and nurses should have to have permanent tenants in their second bedroom.

[Kinnikinnick]

^^^^^ Unpossible, but a good way to write the offer is to just say you will pay $5k more than the highest offer period. Sellers accepts and sends you the highest offer as proof. Done and done.

And if there are two or more offers with that language?


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[Foggy_Goggles]

^^^that's brilliant town of Breck....more juice less squeeze! For the existing property owners to provide workforce housing. Why go through all the headache of building it when it already exists!

[RootSkier]

And if there are two or more offers with that language?

Wouldn't you just a multiple counter offer to both?

[Self Jupiter]

Sign both offers, sales price ♾