Real Estate Crash thread

[Kevo]

ID has real strict laws about Government budgets increasing per year, usually capped at 3%. Thus to give COLA's just at the rate of inflation they have to rob from elsewhere in the budget. It's why cities in the treasure valley put building moratoriums into place during the height of the pandemic, population growth was insane but with limitations on budget growth services can't come close to keeping up.

That is an exceptionally ill conceived policy. I've heard about that from someone else, but have never been able to find the actual law(s). Do you happen to know what the laws that control that 3% increase are?

Our local school district pay scale starts teachers $35k and caps out at $65k after 10 years of service with an advanced degree in a place where you can't buy a house for less than $800k. We're not going to have teachers if we don't find a way to fix that.

[climberevan]

ID politicians are probably just fine with having no teachers. An ignorant population is easy to manipulate.

[Benny Profane]

West End. 1900s brick place with a yard, a garage, and some ivy. Ran across it last year on a virtual walk around the neighborhood when the house around the corner was for sale. If I recall correctly the other house was comparable in size without the yard and sold for less than half of this one.

I've been planning to move north for a year now but timing got shuffled for myriad reasons. Had a 'where the fuck do I want to live' tour lined up from Newport to Portland at the end of December but covfefe pushed it out.




Anything you can do to get the word out that Portland sucks to drive prices back down is appreciated. TIA.

I just think that there are going to be a shitload of people that went into a bidding war in a place they maybe only visited, if that, sitting there with crappy cable, if they even have cable, in the middle of a dismal winter, with Jack shit around them and the closest food market a half hour away, thinking, to quote David Byrne, what have I done? We've learned recently that their beloved Peloton bikes are now clothes hangers, so that's over, and I'll bet it's only a matter of time before they come to their senses and go home.

[fastfred]

benny will shut the fuck up
sometimes you say something that is logical
but whens the last time you been to portland?
fuck portland has been on the up and up for decades
it's an awesome place and would be the bomb to live in the city limits the closer to congress st the better
when J's oyster disappears yeah portland is doomed until then nope
spent my youth getting absolutely fucked up down by the piers and it was awesome
would consider moving there today seriously

[Benny Profane]

Oh, sure, you and I and a lot of skiers. But most people don't ski. They saw Portland in August, and now they're stuck there in January ready to murder someone.

[ötzi]

It's not that bad, the ocean definitely has a moderating influence. Much milder than 10 miles inland. Most days somewhere around 30, plus or minus. Damp cold when it's gray, which is pretty often.

I love that place, we almost bought there before we bought here but big-city amenities within an hour's drive were eventually judged to be a requirement by herself.

[Conundrum]

That is an exceptionally ill conceived policy. I've heard about that from someone else, but have never been able to find the actual law(s). Do you happen to know what the laws that control that 3% increase are?

Our local school district pay scale starts teachers $35k and caps out at $65k after 10 years of service with an advanced degree in a place where you can't buy a house for less than $800k. We're not going to have teachers if we don't find a way to fix that.

I want to be perfectly clear that I think the education funding in Idaho is abmismal and should be changed. Also that I bet we'd get along in real life. But need to point out that I'm not shocked that someone recently moved to Idaho and then doesn't like how Idaho does it. These houses didn't used to be $800k until a bunch of people moved here.

https://tax.idaho.gov/i-1129.cfm

https://legislature.idaho.gov/statut...h8/sect63-802/

Edit. Look at the local school bonds tied to property value that communities continue to assess on themselves while the R's win votes because they "reduce taxes". It's a lack of political courage from both the politicians and the voters. But, teachers salaries did used to be able to afford houses at one point in Idaho even in the Benny quote "trophy towns". I don't blame people for moving here...seems like some tone deafness coming from some on the cost of living being driven up though.

[dunfree]

I want to be perfectly clear that I think the education funding in Idaho is abmismal and should be changed. Also that I bet we'd get along in real life. But need to point out that I'm not shocked that someone recently moved to Idaho and then doesn't like how Idaho does it. These houses didn't used to be $800k until a bunch of people moved here.

https://tax.idaho.gov/i-1129.cfm

https://legislature.idaho.gov/statut...h8/sect63-802/

Edit. Look at the local school bonds tied to property value that communities continue to assess on themselves while the R's win votes because they "reduce taxes". It's a lack of political courage from both the politicians and the voters. But, teachers salaries did used to be able to afford houses at one point in Idaho even in the Benny quote "trophy towns". I don't blame people for moving here...seems like some tone deafness coming from some on the cost of living being driven up though.

It’s the same failed politics of California

[Kevo]

I want to be perfectly clear that I think the education funding in Idaho is abmismal and should be changed. Also that I bet we'd get along in real life. But need to point out that I'm not shocked that someone recently moved to Idaho and then doesn't like how Idaho does it. These houses didn't used to be $800k until a bunch of people moved here.

https://tax.idaho.gov/i-1129.cfm

https://legislature.idaho.gov/statut...h8/sect63-802/

Do you see a benefit to the existing system?

It certainly seems that the current system is strangling local government entities at a time when the state is running a massive budget surplus because of the windfall of new state income tax payers.

[rideit]

The main reason we currently live in JH and not Victor is because we weren’t gonna put our kid into Idaho schools, no way, no how. I still plan on retiring there, though.

[Conundrum]

Do you see a benefit to the existing system?

It certainly seems that the current system is strangling local government entities at a time when the state is running a massive budget surplus because of the windfall of new state income tax payers.

Long time locals that can no longer afford rent? People who would take lower paying jobs but they can't afford to move there while competing with newly minted WFHomers making big city wages for companies not paying local corporate taxes?

Hey, I've lived here my whole life and was raised by teachers. I agree with your political sentiment for the most part. Just thought you could have left the part off about real estate cost after you moved from out of state to a resort town while bringing you and your wife's WFH incomes to the local housing pricing scheme. It's everyone's right to move where they want but I think we can all admit some irony in some of these situations.

[yeahman]

It's everyone's right to move where they want but I think we can all admit some irony in some of these situations.

Yep. Used to be you had to be willing to pay the "scenery tax" if you wanted to live in the rural West, and only a certain type of person was willing to make the sacrifice. Now with WFH we are seeing a massive flipflop in what type of people live here. And not to offend anybody but they are mostly not the type of people I really want to live around. That's a very general sentiment but the more I come in contact with the more I think I'm right in my assessment.

Anyway, when it comes to real estate...our kids are fucked.

[TAFKALVS]

Yep. Used to be you had to be willing to pay the "scenery tax" if you wanted to live in the rural West, and only a certain type of person was willing to make the sacrifice. Now with WFH we are seeing a massive flipflop in what type of people live here. And not to offend anybody but they are mostly not the type of people I really want to live around. That's a very general sentiment but the more I come in contact with the more I think I'm right in my assessment.

Anyway, when it comes to real estate...our kids are fucked.

Keying the sides of sprinter vans is fun. Give it a shot some time, especially one in the douchy tan color with method rims and gotos dangle racks.

[Conundrum]

The reason I say what I do is I've met many folks moving here and most say apologetically "We moved here because it's awesome and don't worry, we're not the type of people who move and then try to change things". It's almost like they know that the mass migration might change things but they don't want anyone to blame them. And I don't. I'd probably move too.

[Conundrum]

Keying the sides of sprinter vans is fun. Give it a shot some time, especially one in the douchy tan color with method rims and gotos dangle racks.

Posers. The real deal is Black Rhino Arsenals.

[rideit]

They see me rollin’, they hatin’

[TAFKALVS]

The reason I say what I do is I've met many folks moving here and most say apologetically "We moved here because it's awesome and don't worry, we're not the type of people who move and then try to change things". It's almost like they know that the mass migration might change things but they don't want anyone to blame them. And I don't. I'd probably move too.

I moved from one mountain town that got too expensive and busy, to another mountain town that was cheap and empty, which now has became expensive and busy.

Am I part of the problem, or do I get to be indignant towards people who moved after me?

Qualifications:
1. Bought a cheap ass house on a low ball offer. Did a normal mortgage. No bidding wars.
2. I have not registered to vote.
3. I employ 4 people at good wages in town.
4. I am jaded and crusty.
5. I know how to change my own oil.

Disqualifications:
1. Work in Tech.
2. Own multiple GOTOS adjacent vehicles.
3. Get to the mountain early and am part of the early AM liftline arms race.
4. Didn't go to high school here, and brought a woman with me so didn't get to sample the local STDs.
5. Haven't divorced wife to add her to the small dating pool.

Am I good?

[Conundrum]

Do you complain about where you moved to?

[TAFKALVS]

Do you complain about where you moved to?

Oh hell yeah, already looking for the next place.

Arco, Idaho or Havre, Montana seem like affordable mountain towns. Gotta be ahead of the trends.

[Conundrum]

God speed.

[TAFKALVS]

God speed.

There's probably a lot of God and speed in those towns I would imagine.

[Conundrum]

Guaranteed.

[jono]

Long time locals that can no longer afford rent? People who would take lower paying jobs but they can't afford to move there while competing with newly minted WFHomers making big city wages for companies not paying local corporate taxes?

Hey, I've lived here my whole life and was raised by teachers. I agree with your political sentiment for the most part. Just thought you could have left the part off about real estate cost after you moved from out of state to a resort town while bringing you and your wife's WFH incomes to the local housing pricing scheme. It's everyone's right to move where they want but I think we can all admit some irony in some of these situations.

My understanding of the reasoning was that this was supposed to cap property tax rate increases (to protect long time residents) and tamp down over-exuberance during RE spikes, on the assumption that they wouldn't last.

I'm not going to defend it, either. But to your point: the place is already very different than when this was instituted. I think the imports and time have shifted our politics and now the politicians are leaning into the "fiscal conservative" messaging. But my taxes were lower in WA (though it's been a while now).

[snapt]

Wayne Hoffman and the Idaho Freedumb Foundation are lobbying to get rid of foregone too. At a time when entities can barely keep up.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Ha...you guys get it. Remember, their important salary signals that they are smarter than us, they have all the answers and we should listen. They probably don't wave when walking the dog, think all problems can be solved by an infinite email string but won't meet in person and proclaim outrange that the plumber charges $200/hr. and can't get there for a couple of months.

As mentioned, I'd don't hold it against anyone for moving here. I will hold you attitude against you if you are too self absorbed to realize that people that don't early a living locally make it more difficult for some of those that do.