Real Estate Crash thread

[Toadman]

Somebody wins. Somebody loses.

It's a zero "some" game.

[Skidog]

What the fuck. There's no jobs out there. Maybe 25-30 % UE soon. How the fuck can anybody even find a job?

I started a new job right at the stay at home orders. I get offers almost daily, but I'm in tech. Tech will come out of this huge for the businesses that survive.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Benny Profane]

Why do you care? With your stable retirement income, you just automatically moved up several social classes now.

Damn right. But I'll never get invited to the right Hamptons parties. Eh, screw them.

[wordbird]

Wow. Have you seen pictures of the auto food lines? You're obviously not a restaurant owner.

Upper class white people making comments from their zoom bubble.

A bit ironic coming from our east coast boomer property values shit poster..

As for as people that are self-employed small business owners - aren't most of them eligible for unemployment under the Cares act or the $10k small biz GRANTS(I admit I haven't read all of it), so that the act actually covers a very large slice of US workers? And given how we do policy in this country I don't doubt that we probably left 5% or so people in the uncovered gap besides the ones i listed.

@concretejungle I don't live in Montana I actually moved to Minneapolis to start a job 2 day before the lockdown began, and even moved up my start date by a week. I can't help you, I heard that it was slow to get processed/banks were not prepared to handle this shit? Maybe the owner will apply in next week or two as it gets more easier to do the app, I hope it works it for you.

[Danno]

Congrats. And probably a good call, there's way more to the whole thing than just finances (for a primary residence).

[MarcusBrody]

Just had an offer accepted on a house in Boulder City, Nevada. I'm not sure if we would have been able to have gotten a better deal if we'd waited a few months to lowball distressed sellers. But we really liked this house as this one had multiple offers: It's in an area we wanted, seemingly one of the few non-architecturally boring houses in the Vegas Valley, and it saves us the hassle of moving again in short order. Plus, I can ride out my backdoor to Bootleg Canyon.

Now to see how the inspection/appraisal goes. I don't anticipate anything big with the inspection as I've seen a previous inspection report on it, but we'll see. I'll cross my fingers.

The place in question.

Edit: Danno's post is in response to this. I somehow deleted this post trying to edit a typo on my phone and now things are out of order.

[muted]

Just had an offer accepted on a house in Boulder City, Nevada. I'm not sure if we would have been able to have gotten a better deal if we'd waited a few months to lowball distressed sellers. But we really liked this house as this one had multiple offers: It's in an area we wanted, seemingly one of the few non-architecturally boring houses in the Vegas Valley, and it saves us the hassle of moving again in short order. Plus, I can ride out my backdoor to Bootleg Canyon.

Now to see how the inspection/appraisal goes. I don't anticipate anything big with the inspection as I've seen a previous inspection report on it, but we'll see. I'll cross my fingers.

The place in question.

Edit: Danno's post is in response to this. I somehow deleted this post trying to edit a typo on my phone and now things are out of order.

Congrats! And I highly recommend lowering your health deductible to $500 due to being that close to Bootleg.

[MarcusBrody]

Congrats! And I highly recommend lowering your health deductible to $500 due to being that close to Bootleg.

Heh, for real. I rented a bike and rode there when I went out to interview and it's home to some serious stuff. I had a blast though.

[Rideski]

[Toadman]

This is from a Redfin market report, so take it for what it's worth.

Demand for Affordable Single-Family Homes Drives Bidding Wars, Condos are Less Desirable
Agents from Madison to Maryland to Los Angeles say competition for the best homes is getting intense. Lindsay Katz, a Redfin agent in Los Angeles, tried to make an appointment to view a new listing in northwest LA but got an email from the listing agent saying it’s first-come-first-served. “It was crazy. The email just said ‘We’re like Trader Joe’s now. There are tape markers 10-feet apart on the sidewalk and there may be waiting times to get in. Bring your own mask and gloves.’ ”

After a few weeks of Redfin buyers being the only bidder or facing competition from one or two other offers, we’re hearing stories of bidding wars with four, five, or more buyers and homes selling above the asking price across the country. The stories are eerily similar; well-priced single-family homes have buyers with a stable income and strong credit fighting over scarce inventory.

[char_]

Describes our selling experience. Will wait for awhile to buy, but low interest rates are hard to pass up.

[Mazderati]

I was looking around old haunts in Boston last night and shit has gone plaid. Multiple properties at $2,000/sq. ft. with $600-800 monthly HOAs.

[Toadman]

Seems that sellers are sticking to their guns on listing prices, at least for now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coron...151455961.html

U.S. home sellers are sticking to their listing prices in the face of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Most sellers have not discounted their home to attract buyers, according to a new survey of 3,000 Realtors on April 19 and 20 by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Some 74% of Realtors reported that clients have not reduced listing prices, the NAR found.

“Sellers who believe they priced their homes to sell and that their property will continue to retain its value have not lowered their prices… The sellers are willing to wait to find that astute buyer who will see the value,” said Kathryn Landlow, a real estate agent at New York City’s Warburg Realty brokerage.

In the first three weeks of April, median listing prices were up 2.5%, 1.6% and 0.8% higher, respectively than they were for the same time period in 2019

[rideit]

Just had an offer accepted on a house in Boulder City, Nevada. I'm not sure if we would have been able to have gotten a better deal if we'd waited a few months to lowball distressed sellers. But we really liked this house as this one had multiple offers: It's in an area we wanted, seemingly one of the few non-architecturally boring houses in the Vegas Valley, and it saves us the hassle of moving again in short order. Plus, I can ride out my backdoor to Bootleg Canyon.

Now to see how the inspection/appraisal goes. I don't anticipate anything big with the inspection as I've seen a previous inspection report on it, but we'll see. I'll cross my fingers.

The place in question.

Edit: Danno's post is in response to this. I somehow deleted this post trying to edit a typo on my phone and now things are out of order.

Sweet pad, congrats! Bootleg is so fun. I wonder how many wood stoves there are in Vegas...

[liv2ski]

Describes our selling experience. Will wait for awhile to buy, but low interest rates are hard to pass up.

With the deficit this country now has, we all better pray rates stay low forever or paying the debt will bankrupt the country.

[ColMan]

With the deficit this country now has, we all better pray rates stay low forever or paying the debt will bankrupt the country.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[MarcusBrody]

Sweet pad, congrats! Bootleg is so fun. I wonder how many wood stoves there are in Vegas...

There seem to be an oddly large number of fireplaces if not woodstoves. Either it was basically just a requirement for a certain era's design or someone needed to take the chill off those 40 F January nights.

We basically found what the last few posts in the thread have reported to be true for where we were looking. Some sellers are apparently keeping things off the market, but a lot are staying pretty firm on price largely I think because they are getting close to it. Nice stuff that came onto the market in the last month (and so may have had a bit of price adjustment built in), seems to be getting offers/going pending in a reasonably short amount of time. There wasn't a lot of excess supply going into this crisis (unlike the last economic crash), so I think that has really buoyed things. Obviously we'll see what happens long term, but there didn't seem to be strong enough immediate incentives for us to rent/wait for a year when a place we really liked popped up.

[SkiCougar]

I was looking around old haunts in Boston last night and shit has gone plaid. Multiple properties at $2,000/sq. ft. with $600-800 monthly HOAs.

not to worry, be down significantly a year from now.

I was looking at Boston real estate early this year as i'm looking to move there, it's quite a shock when your reference is texas housing; but a year from now; should look pretty good; seeing prices drop 25% in some areas should not be unheard of.

[Smoova]

There seem to be an oddly large number of fireplaces if not woodstoves. Either it was basically just a requirement for a certain era's design or someone needed to take the chill off those 40 F January nights.

I spent many nights freezing my ass off in Ft. Irwin in temperatures that would melt snow, so I appreciate the need for fireplaces in the desert.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Can you think of any other industry where the commissioned sales reps are the go to mouth piece of the media?

Breaking News - New Car Sales Expected to Remain Strong

According to industry insiders, demand for automobiles remains strong. "Due to America's never ending appetite for new fancy shit, I've sold like four fuckin' cars this week. The manufactures are not expected to offer any rebates. The market remains strong. In fact, with the factories shut down, we here at Simpson Ford are actually expecting a shortage in supply and a bidding war on vehicles." Joey Bagadonuts, Internet Sales Manager.

[Toadman]

Can you think of any other industry where the commissioned sales reps are the go to mouth piece of the media?

Breaking News - New Car Sales Expected to Remain Strong

According to industry insiders, demand for automobiles remains strong. "Due to America's never ending appetite for new fancy shit, I've sold like four fuckin' cars this week. The manufactures are not expected to offer any rebates. The market remains strong. In fact, with the factories shut down, we here at Simpson Ford are actually expecting a shortage in supply and a bidding war on vehicles." Joey Bagadonuts, Internet Sales Manager.

Good one. Wait until the RE industry gets kicked in the groin, punched in the gut, and slapped in the face with reality as this COVID-19 continues to play out through the summer and into the fall.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, little early. Can't believe anybody is even thinking of buying right now. Selling, on the other hand, sure.

[Self Jupiter]

Demand for properties in the most desirable locations around Greater Boston up to ~$1.2-1.4M right now is still very strong. Granted there are limited listings, of course, but a lot of places aren’t even making it to the open market. I suppose some buyers could be comparing our current situation to the last recession, where some neighborhoods’ pricing remained flat or even increased a little YTY, before values really took off in the early 2010s. But the motivation to buy doesn’t feel analytically driven, rather that just that these buyers have been trying to buy for a long time.

Such a shitshow. We went through several days last week in CO where they were flip flopping on what was allowed twice a day. As of now, between CO state rules and our lawyer's interpretation of them, I can't even do a virtual showing of a vacant home or even vacant land. Or hire a photographer to take photos or videos of a listing. Some agents are putting homes under contract, because in-person showings are then deemed part of the contract process and therefore allowed... Luckily April and May are super slow here anyway, so maybe it won't be that big of a deal.

This was in response to my posting about how we have no meaningful institutional guidance for brokers and agents. We never got institutional leadership at an industry level, did you? Total shitshow over here. Towns resorted to making their own rules and restrictions.

[liv2ski]

Been here many times in the 36 years I have been doing this. Higher end properties and rural properties will be the first to slow down (little to no showings) and the prices will come down. The additional problem for the high end buyers is compounded by a lack of mortgage investor interest in doing loans above FNMA regional loan limits, so those loans have the highest rates (relative to FNMA pricing) in the last 7 years.
My hood has come to a real slow down unless the house is below $2M. In your hood, I would expect anything still in the first time buyer range to sell quickly, whereas more expensive homes will take awhile.
Everything is not going down in price, just the tougher to market properties, like condos.

[Benny Profane]

Just listening to a very informative podcast. Barry Ritholtz interviewing Chris Whelan , a real smart credit and mortgage nerd I used to hear a lot back during the great recession. Among many other important topics for the dayt that are discussed, he predicts a 3.0 mortgage rate later in the year.

https://castbox.fm/vb/254984859

Masters of Business, today's episode, Chris Whelan.