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  1. #21801
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    13,643
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    <snip> whether doing so will throw off their STR cash flow.
    It absolutely will...

  2. #21802
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Making the Bowl Great Again
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    13,779
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Hearing rumblings that a lot of people with construction loans are screwed because either they won't be able to close on a mortgage following the completion of the house or that closing on a mortgage will be way more expensive and burdensome.
    I think I have mentioned this but we were scheduled for a major, move-out-for-9-months style remodel starting right about now. We pulled the plug in December or January due to constantly escalating prices and a growing concern that it wouldn't get done in that time period due to supply chain issues, and I feel like I have the greatest foresight of all time.

  3. #21803
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
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    7,915
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Hearing rumblings that a lot of people with construction loans are screwed because either they won't be able to close on a mortgage following the completion of the house or that closing on a mortgage will be way more expensive and burdensome.

    This Reddit post seems to confirm that- "I started building a house when rates were 3%. Now they're 6% and my monthly payment is over $800 more each month."

    A custom house is being built next door to me. The couple building are $1.2MM deep in construction loans and made the decision to move forward when interest rates were sub-3%. They told me they plan to be here a couple months a year and AirBnB the rest of the year. A comparable house down the street came on the market 45 days ago and just reduced their asking price below $900k.

    I really wonder if the couple building next door will be able to close at >6% interest and whether doing so will throw off their STR cash flow. Glad it isn't my problem.
    Teton Valley was one of, if not the worst hit, community during the last housing crash. Like 50-80% decreases in value. I was there, it was fucking wild. It happened at least 3x prior to that in the 100ish year history of the Valley.

    I hope you like your house because there is a very high likelihood of that happening again. Maybe not 80% but it is going to be messy. TV is a cool place to live, but the vast majority of property is held by people who don't live there full time. They are going to walk if the STR revenue doesn't work. A lot of the full timers are also exclusively tied to the construction industry. They are going to walk if there is no building going on.
    Live Free or Die

  4. #21804
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    12,609
    A lot of things working against the STRs these days could cause many to take a dive and the owners to sell or go under water. Places like Teton Valley that are far from airports and population centers will be hit harder for sure. If people are dependent on income from these properties to pay their mortgages, they'll be flooding the market. Housing markets might come back down to reasonable levels. Should be interesting. STRs could be the housing bubble everyone has been waiting for.

  5. #21805
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    112
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    A custom house is being built next door to me. The couple building are $1.2MM deep in construction loans and made the decision to move forward when interest rates were sub-3%. They told me they plan to be here a couple months a year and AirBnB the rest of the year.
    Smart money right here

  6. #21806
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    your vacation
    Posts
    4,718
    very excited to watch this all unfold
    it's gonna be like a great sporting event whose got their pants down around their ankles

    on the other hand have plenty of projects booked for 23 still

    we can keep looking into the past to find answers but they aint there so look to the future
    and if I hear one more boomer telling me how their retirment is tanking my crocodile tears will over flow a tea cup

  7. #21807
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,643
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    <snip> if I hear one more boomer telling me how their retirment is tanking my crocodile tears will over flow a tea cup
    Are they using it as a negotiating tactic? I hope they are...

  8. #21808
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
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    3,715
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Teton Valley was one of, if not the worst hit, community during the last housing crash. Like 50-80% decreases in value. I was there, it was fucking wild. It happened at least 3x prior to that in the 100ish year history of the Valley.

    I hope you like your house because there is a very high likelihood of that happening again. Maybe not 80% but it is going to be messy. TV is a cool place to live, but the vast majority of property is held by people who don't live there full time. They are going to walk if the STR revenue doesn't work. A lot of the full timers are also exclusively tied to the construction industry. They are going to walk if there is no building going on.
    Yeah, it's crazy riding my bike around the valley and still seeing dozens of zombie subdivisions from the last crash with 0 or 1 or 3 houses built. I read a Master's thesis that someone pursuing a master's in planning wrote about the housing issues caused by the last crash before buying here. The history is pretty wild.

    Luckily I do like my house. It could take a 50% reduction in value before it would be underwater. Who knows though, it could end up underwater.

    If a crash does happen I'll be looking to the WY side of the valley for a next home and I'll turn this one into a rental.

    I sometimes kick myself for not buying in Alta, but I can't complain too much.

  9. #21809
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,643
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    <snip>

    If a crash does happen I'll be looking to the WY side of the valley for a next home and I'll turn this one into a rental.
    Talk to @rideit.

  10. #21810
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,715
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Talk to @rideit.
    Yes, the rideit plan except that I want to be in WY on this side of the pass and not the Jackson side.

    Meant to also respond to rootskier. Pretty incredible timing there. Bet you are glad you walked away from that remodel.

  11. #21811
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Yeah, it's crazy riding my bike around the valley and still seeing dozens of zombie subdivisions from the last crash with 0 or 1 or 3 houses built. I read a Master's thesis that someone pursuing a master's in planning wrote about the housing issues caused by the last crash before buying here. The history is pretty wild.

    Luckily I do like my house. It could take a 50% reduction in value before it would be underwater. Who knows though, it could end up underwater.

    If a crash does happen I'll be looking to the WY side of the valley for a next home and I'll turn this one into a rental.

    I sometimes kick myself for not buying in Alta, but I can't complain too much.
    Kevo, the only things that have caused crashes in my 63 years are major unemployment events and the Liar Loan BS of the early 2000's. It is doubtful enough WFH, construction peeps or what ever walk from their homes to cause a crash like 2007. That leaves an unemployment event. With the unemployment rate at about 3.6%, I don't see a recession being bad enough to really effect housing like the demise of the Defense Industry in San Diego when Clinton was elected. We will see what happens in 2023 as in no more 18% gains YOY but flat to maybe plus 3+.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  12. #21812
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    3,723
    If you think Unemployment is going to stay at 3.x%, I have an STR in Phoenix to sell you. Even the biggest companies are slowing/stopping hiring. Every company is cutting cash outlays and all expenses which will eventually hit employment figures.

  13. #21813
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Quote Originally Posted by phatty View Post
    If you think Unemployment is going to stay at 3.x%, I have an STR in Phoenix to sell you. Even the biggest companies are slowing/stopping hiring. Every company is cutting cash outlays and all expenses which will eventually hit employment figures.
    That is not what I said, but thanks for playing.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  14. #21814
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Last Best City in the Last Best Place
    Posts
    7,267
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    STRs could be the housing bubble everyone has been waiting for.
    Please this. Fuck those STR dipshits.

  15. #21815
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Mayonnaisium
    Posts
    10,467
    lol

  16. #21816
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    CO
    Posts
    1,797
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I sometimes kick myself for not buying in Alta, but I can't complain too much.
    What do kids do for middle/high school in Alta? Guessing they can't attend a public school in Driggs since they're not paying any Idaho taxes. Private school?

  17. #21817
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    12,609
    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    Please this. Fuck those STR dipshits.
    Tell us how you REALLY feel.

  18. #21818
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    3,141
    Agreed. I won't shed a single tear for the folks who bought houses for inflated prices with the sole intent of STR. The can all go bankrupt.
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  19. #21819
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    9,530
    As new home starts crater and mobility and sales decrease this should be long term bullish for house prices (in certain markets) for the same reason (lack of supply) that drove the latest boom.

  20. #21820
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Dystopia
    Posts
    21,052
    Quote Originally Posted by climberevan View Post
    Agreed. I won't shed a single tear for the folks who bought houses for inflated prices with the sole intent of STR. The can all go bankrupt.
    Agreed. There’s so much STR pressure here. Rent three months. Otherwise vacant. It’s fubar

  21. #21821
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,067
    Mammoth is STR central. It would warm my cold dark heart to see that stuff implode.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  22. #21822
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,715
    Quote Originally Posted by ColMan View Post
    What do kids do for middle/high school in Alta? Guessing they can't attend a public school in Driggs since they're not paying any Idaho taxes. Private school?
    They have the choice of attending school in Driggs or they can elect to attend schools in Jackson.

    Most attend school in Driggs, a few in Jackson and few get shipped off to boarding schools.

  23. #21823
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    805
    Quote Originally Posted by MCS5280 View Post
    Smart money right here
    When we built our house in 2018, we locked in our construction and perm rate before we ever broke ground.

    Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

  24. #21824
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,358
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    They have the choice of attending school in Driggs or they can elect to attend schools in Jackson.

    Most attend school in Driggs, a few in Jackson and few get shipped off to boarding schools.
    And some home-schoolin’.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  25. #21825
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Posts
    8,710
    I don't think too many people will loose too much sleep if the greasy hustle known as highly leveraged STR gets their house of cards knocked down. Stereotypically, these people are so entitled. They think they are savy business people but when they open their mouths you realize that they never even consider downside risk.

    They love to say things like, "you can't do that"...um, yeah we can. Just in the last week I've heard that, "the voluntary watering restrictions affect my curb appeal and cash flow" and "the parking regulations prohibiting street parking are not compatible with my business model" and "I don't think I should have to pay the overage fees on my water bill because it was my renters and I can't control them".

    Don't let the door hit you in the ass. And this construction loan mess...what about the Einstein's that are getting a new fancy house build that needs to be paid for by one they have to sell? I know the banks don't want any REO. We will see what happens to the "excess demand".

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