Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

You need a political connection. Especially with this infrastructure money coming.

[joeshek]

So if we stop building houses in the CO front range because of water rights, that only makes things MORE bonkers, right?

[ötzi]

So if we stop building houses in the CO front range because of water rights, that only makes things MORE bonkers, right?

I guess it would depend how severe the water shortage is, but yeah you'd think existing homes would gain value if no more of them could be built.

[Foggy_Goggles]

So if we stop building houses in the CO front range because of water rights, that only makes things MORE bonkers, right?

That is not how it would manifest. Denver Water and Northern have a pretty big portfolios. Right now their tap fees are around $4K. In the mountains tap fees start around $10K and go up from there.

Basically, residential users are willing to pay a lot more per acre foot that what they are currently charged. The front range municipal water providers will just buy are the down stream ag and industrial users and sell the water to the developers.

A crazy concept that is being discussed is that the Western Slope communities could actually sell their water rights back across the divide to limit growth in their own communities.

[PowderHorse]

A new tap into the Lefthand water district is $25,000 for a single family residential property. You can use it for domestic water and then you get billed for usage on top of that.

People buying rural/Ag property in Boulder County aren't always paying attention to the available water for what they want to do with the land (horses, veggies, trees) and will end up with dry lots or huge water bills trying to keep things green (plus fire mitigation).

Wells and water rights are gold, the front range is like a desert without the consistent snow and rain. There are some sweet greenways but hopefully they don't flood again when we get the next 100 year rainstorm. Sigh.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

A new tap into the Lefthand water district is $25,000 for a single family residential property. You can use it for domestic water and then you get billed for usage on top of that.

Tap fee plus service fee plus millage (taxes) right?

front range is like a desert without the consistent snow and rain diverted under the divide via the Colorado Big Thompson Project

Lefthand gets all their water from the Fraser and the Headwaters of the Colorado which is stored in Lake Granby.

[anotherVTskibum]

. I do try to conserve water not because of cost but because that is what you should try to do.

FTFY.

Someday I may convince my wife of that, but most likely I'll keep trying to avoid her doing the dishes and leaving the water on full blast the entire time. I'm pretty sure her technique is the one the dishwasher folks use to say "see, it's not efficient to run the dishwasher."

From a practical standpoint, even in an area (New England) with plenty of water, there's an energy cost associated with getting the water to your tap, and possibly one with getting it down the drain (if you have town sewer).

It also drove me nuts living in Montana and having a ridiculous amount of water usage included in the town water billing, and then having policies that allowed for separately metered outdoor taps with lower rates to reflect the lack of sewer impact. If you need that much water to have a lawn, you probably shouldn't have one. IMO, the standard monthly cost should've been set to match the 10th-percentile usage rather than something much higher.

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[Foggy_Goggles]

From a practical standpoint, even in an area (New England) with plenty of water, there's an energy cost associated with getting the water to your tap, and possibly one with getting it down the drain (if you have town sewer).

The consumptive use of water is something more people should pay attention to. Here, our water district draws from an alluvial well and then discharges from the shit plant back into the river. We do not allow residential irrigation. Our consumptive use is claimed at 4% (this is the water rights you need to augment). Compare that to where by parents live in Florida where they draw from a deep aquifer, wash the boats and it flows into the lagoon. Consumptive use 100%.

[John_B]

Absolutely true Foggy our local river valley has some tributary watersheds that are closed water rights and new wells are not being permitted. As well as a temporary(?) ban on on property subdivisions and a temporary(?) ban on building on lots that were subdivided since 2002. Interesting times.

[skifishbum]

while it wasnt gonna be a deal breaker
the fact that this house came with irrigation water rights
from the chartered in 1909 when they built red pine reservoir
south despain ditch company
was a hudge selling point for me
as i like to garden and grow things

[altasnob]

Absolutely true Foggy our local river valley has some tributary watersheds that are closed water rights and new wells are not being permitted. As well as a temporary(?) ban on on property subdivisions and a temporary(?) ban on building on lots that were subdivided since 2002. Interesting times.

You're in the Methow, right? As I understand Washington's water issues, it is not a lack of water or that there is less rain, snow, and water in our rivers here than there historically was. It is that the powers that be finally realize that when you build new homes, no matter where they are, they will reduce the amount of water in the watershed and consequently, have an effect on river levels. Lower river levels means less habitat for salmon.

Counter that to the Colorado River system, which supplies water to CO, WY, UT, NM, AZ, NV, CA, and Mexico and there is less rain, snow, and water in the river system than there historically was and when the water rights were divided up between the states.

[Ted Striker]

Hirst decision, and Bill 6091.

[John_B]

You're in the Methow, right? As I understand Washington's water issues, it is not a lack of water or that there is less rain, snow, and water in our rivers here than there historically was. It is that the powers that be finally realize that when you build new homes, no matter where they are, they will reduce the amount of water in the watershed and consequently, have an effect on river levels. Lower river levels means less habitat for salmon.

Counter that to the Colorado River system, which supplies water to CO, WY, UT, NM, AZ, NV, CA, and Mexico and there is less rain, snow, and water in the river system than there historically was and when the water rights were divided up between the states.

Yeah. As you likely know the Methow has a pretty complex history of water right litigation. I'm not going to try to pretend to explain or understand more but it is sure interesting watching how things shake out.

I have a couple friends that are really sweating the ban on building on lots that were subdivided after 2002. Both bought in the last few years and despite having the county say they would be able to build are now unable to get a permit.

[Toadman]

Yeah. As you likely know the Methow has a pretty complex history of water right litigation. I'm not going to try to pretend to explain or understand more but it is sure interesting watching how things shake out.

I have a couple friends that are really sweating the ban on building on lots that were subdivided after 2002. Both bought in the last few years and despite having the county say they would be able to build are now unable to get a permit.

It's interesting that Deschutes county has taken the opposite tack. They will issue bldg permits left and right. (Currently a 6 week backlog on new home construction permits) Especially in Bend, no one seems to care that there's a finite amount of water here. Bend city council's singular, blinders on focus is to create more dwelling units as fast as humanely possible with seemingly little regard for ramifications for both water use and forest fire issues.

Redmond and Prineville and now Sisters are all proposing large tracts of land for development. WTF is the water going to come from to service all these homes and businesses?

https://www.opb.org/news/article/ben...water-warning/

Last year was a below avg. snowpack that contributed to the situation. That may or may not become the norm here. But it begs the question why continue bldg w/o more research and study of the water issues. (Along with fire mitigation, especially after the Paradise fire.)

[old_newguy]

It's interesting that Deschutes county has taken the opposite tack. They will issue bldg permits left and right. (Currently a 6 week backlog on new home construction permits) Especially in Bend, no one seems to care that there's a finite amount of water here. Bend city council's singular, blinders on focus is to create more dwelling units as fast as humanely possible with seemingly little regard for ramifications for both water use and forest fire issues.

Redmond and Prineville and now Sisters are all proposing large tracts of land for development. WTF is the water going to come from to service all these homes and businesses?

https://www.opb.org/news/article/ben...water-warning/

Last year was a below avg. snowpack that contributed to the situation. That may or may not become the norm here. But it begs the question why continue bldg w/o more research and study of the water issues. (Along with fire mitigation, especially after the Paradise fire.)

Are you aware of the battle over Bends use of its surface water rights via the pipeline and treatment plant on Tumalo Creek? Worth doing some reading if you are interested in this topic. A lot of this has been litigated.

[Toadman]

Are you aware of the battle over Bends use of its surface water rights via the pipeline and treatment plant on Tumalo Creek? Worth doing some reading if you are interested in this topic. A lot of this has been litigated.

Yes. I've seen and read news reports about what's going on with Tumalo Creek.

This is a good read on one farmers perspective about central Oregon's water rights issues.

https://havstadhatco.com/blogs/blog/...central-oregon

[dan_pdx]

We have considered a move to Bend at times over the years, but were always hesitant to make the jump due to long-term concerns about running low on water. Having said that, the city of Bend claims everything is peachy w/r/t water sustainability (see page 3), are they just blowing smoke?

[Toadman]

We have considered a move to Bend at times over the years, but were always hesitant to make the jump due to long-term concerns about running low on water. Having said that, the city of Bend claims everything is peachy w/r/t water sustainability (see page 3), are they just blowing smoke?

https://ktvz.com/news/2021/01/12/c-o...-water-levels/

[neufox47]

As a loan guy, I find Reverse Mortgages predatory in nature and the guys suggesting them can go fuck themselves.

Someone asked, "why don't the olds just sell and move down"? From many of my conversations with neighbors that have lived here 30+ years we all feel the same way, that is, why sell and pay a huge CG hit? In the old days when we bought, the rules were all the equity from the sale was non taxable if rolled into a new primary residence. Then Daddy Shrub signed off on a tax law change the brought you the present $500k exemption for husband and wife. Well fuck that. I will stay here forever, as will my neighbors, before we sell and have to move down a bunch due to CG taxes.
You cunts can go fuck yourselves if you don't like it.

So the government should get decreasing property tax revenue (when adjusted for inflation) from you and also shouldn’t be able to tax your million dollar gain when you sell (I’ll note that as the first$500k is tax free a million dollar gain would produce a tax hit of at most 9%)... Just who exactly should pay taxes and when in your opinion?

[altasnob]

The current drought map mirrors the trends we can expect from climate change during the next 100 years. Wetter in the PNW, but less low elevation snowfall. Less precipitation everyhwere else in the West. Current drought map:



Forecast precip difference by 2099. So Washington, Oregon, and even Idaho get more precipitation:



Snowfall decline is depressing. Mean snowfall ending in 2000:



Compare to mean snowfall ending in 2099:

[altasnob]

As mentioned by Ted Striker, the Hirst decision in 2016 is what put a temporary pause on rural development in Washington. Before the decision, Washington counties were issuing building permits at the same clip as Bend and anywhere else. But the Washington Supreme Court (extremely liberal) ruled that the State and counties were misinterpreting their own laws and that before issuing building permits, they have to take into account the new development's effect on stream flows. Maybe Oregon will have a similar court decision coming as well.

[liv2ski]

Just who exactly should pay taxes and when in your opinion?

Last comment on this very important issue to you cry babies Filed my Fed 1040 and State returns last week. The state of CA got plenty from me, so absolutely 0 guilt over my property taxes. Now you all can go fuck yourselves one more time.

[Dantheman]

Snowfall decline is depressing. Mean snowfall ending in 2000:

Compare to mean snowfall ending in 2099:

Brutal.

[dan_pdx]

https://ktvz.com/news/2021/01/12/c-o...-water-levels/

dang, and the building boom continues

[Benny Profane]

The current drought map mirrors the trends we can expect from climate change during the next 100 years. Wetter in the PNW, but less low elevation snowfall. Less precipitation everyhwere else in the West. Current drought map:



Forecast precip difference by 2099. So Washington, Oregon, and even Idaho get more precipitation:



Snowfall decline is depressing. Mean snowfall ending in 2000:



Compare to mean snowfall ending in 2099:

Lots of hot RE markets in the bad places in that first map.