Real Estate Crash thread

**Whiteroom_Guardian** · 10-31-2020, 10:40 AM

Yes, even Butte/Anaconda is "heating up". 6-12 months ago the MLS was loaded with 45k houses. Most of them basically tear downs, but a couple that could actually be lived in. In the 200-300k range there were a few really nice houses that sold that house wise were equivalent to stuff in the 600-700s in Bozo.

BUT as everyone already mentioned......the pit.

I've been watching p-burg RE for a couple years now and if I wasn't single I probably would have pounced last year. I'll just never do super tiny ski/mountain town again as a single guy.

On the topic of city people trying to assimilate to mountain life after covid? Well I have a good buddy I went to college with in Boulder. His only mountain town experience is Vail and Frisco, CO for a couple years. He has been in SF for about 12 years now. Unbelievably talented sushi chef. Without a doubt the best Japanese food I have ever had. He was supposed to open a new restaurant in SF this year and boom.....covid. Shut the whole thing down. He got an opportunity to start a new restaurant in JH next summer. The $$$ already moved him there....paying him big bucks to not work at all for 6 months and then start his own place. He misses SF already. I knew he would. Moved during mud season. Doesn't know anyone. Hasn't been on skis in 10 years.

I do think there is a small percentage of new mountain people who will want to head back to the city in 8-12 months.

That being said, in places with still super low/no inventory I don't think that will cause any prices to drop. Problem is in places like BZN there are 5 people wanting to move here for every 1 that decides mountain life isn't for them.

I have had clients pass on multiple properties and now are kicking themselves that the 475k condo 12-18mos ago is almost 600k now. I had a client terminate a contract on a condo at 399k this month. All cash/asking price. New construction. It was back on the market in 2 days at 459k. I shit you not. Someone will probably buy it at the new price. That's how nutty it is now.

A property isn't worth what you think it's worth, it's worth what someone is willing to pay.....unfortunately people are willing to pay really crazy prices right now and none of us can figure out if there is going to be a ceiling any time soon.

**lifelinksplit** · 10-31-2020, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by concretejungle

I believe P-burg is the new spot for people leaving BZN.

Can confirm. Currently building a 5500sq ft house for some west Yellowstone transplants up at the lake as well.

I think a lot of Bozeman peeps(esp newcomers) might be surprised to experience "small" town montana...

**Foggy_Goggles** · 10-31-2020, 11:04 AM

A property isn't worth what you think it's worth, it's worth what someone is willing to pay.....unfortunately people are willing to pay really crazy prices right now and none of us can figure out if there is going to be a ceiling any time soon.

Over the course of the last ten years, it seem like we've gone from a. seems like a good investment relative to the alternative to b. short term rental pays for my second home c. too many people with too much money saying "fuck it, get me a place in the mountains".

The mentality is that you can't lose because...well...for quite some time, nobody has lost. If the demographic shift towards the more rural west has legs, I think the only constraint will be wet water. Most people have no idea how much water is available. For example my water district has exceed capacity (taps to sell) of about 250 SFEs (single family equivalents), there is a platted development (since the mid70s) next door that has producing wells so serve about 700 SFEs.

If the cyber economy proves to be real, I think population will continue to shift towards anywhere within say 3hrs of an airport. For everyone that loves the big city, there are 10 of them that are just treading water in a suburban wasteland.

**altasnob** · 10-31-2020, 11:25 AM

Have a friend who grew up with me in Portland area who moved to Montana in late 90s. He's Mr. Montana; fishing guide, big time hunter, tele skis, ect. He has an Air bnb in P burg that he says is doing quite well. But every time I see him he tells me Montana is ruined by all the transplants and money and wants to move to rural Idaho (like Salmon or something in the middle of no where). I get a chuckle because I know in reality, he's just a city boy like me who is really no different than all these new comers.

**lifelinksplit** · 10-31-2020, 11:48 AM

Lots of people buying and converting to air bnb's in pburg. I think it's been happening for a while but a pretty large portion of Missoula folks buying a house for a ski house and air bnb'ing it when they're not here. We looked at houses here for prob at least 5-7 yrs before buying 2yrs ago. We had been looking at Livingston for prob 5yrs before that when we got priced out. Same as everywhere else, houses/lots are getting sniped crazy fast here and places we had looked at 2yrs ago selling for around 50-80k more. Hell before her divorce Kelly Clarkson bought one of the bigger ranches here along with a Georgetown lake house to live in while building new house(s)/barns etc on the ranch property(her husband still lives here). I dont think the WFH is driving it as much as a side effect of people in MT getting pushed out of other places(Bozeman, Missoula, whitefish etc) by the WFH crowd.

If ya love guns, trump, baby jesus, and own a SxS you'll love pburg!(only kinda kidding)

**SKIP IN7RO** · 10-31-2020, 11:52 AM

^What's the church to bar/restaurant ratio?

**lifelinksplit** · 10-31-2020, 12:01 PM

Originally Posted by SKIP IN7RO

^What's the church to bar/restaurant ratio?

I think there's around 3 churches and 1 bar, 1 brewery(2 locations) and restaurants vary due to the covidz but really only 1 now.

**RootSkier** · 10-31-2020, 12:28 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Have a friend who grew up with me in Portland area who moved to Montana in late 90s. He's Mr. Montana; fishing guide, big time hunter, tele skis, ect. He has an Air bnb in P burg that he says is doing quite well. But every time I see him he tells me Montana is ruined by all the transplants and money and wants to move to rural Idaho (like Salmon or something in the middle of no where). I get a chuckle because I know in reality, he's just a city boy like me who is really no different than all these new comers.

Does he live in Missoula and are his initials KJ? If so, I moved here around the same time and we've been friends forever. I have no doubt he'd move to bumfuck ID but I'm not so sure his wife would.

Also, telemarking is stupid and if we are talking about the same person, he recently got wise and locked em down.

**altasnob** · 10-31-2020, 01:09 PM

Yep, that's him. We ski raced on Hood in high school so he's always known how to lock em down but had to tele to fit in with everyone in Montana in the 90s. In his defense, he was one of the few fishing and hunting red necks who grew up in that uppity Portland suburb. Was always a fish out of water there (although he claims he will retire on the coast for the steel headfishing).

**altasnob** · 10-31-2020, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by smartyiak

Lucky for me, I'm reaching the age where SuperFund legacy doesn't matter so much...by the time the illness takes me, I'll be around me expiration date anyways. Might as well be fun while it lasts.

This is my strategy. Just find all the superfund sites in the West near good skiing and you will find cheap home prices. I live in a 100 year old house with lead paint. I'm not ready to make the move yet, but when I am, I figure if the lead in my house and pipes hasn't killed me by then, what's the problem with living near a super fund site.

People are afraid to live in Butte yet all the toxicity of Butte just flows down the Clark's Fork to desirable places like Missoula and Sandpoint.

**Bobcat Sig** · 10-31-2020, 01:52 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Yep, that's him. We ski raced on Hood in high school so he's always known how to lock em down but had to tele to fit in with everyone in Montana in the 90s. In his defense, he was one of the few fishing and hunting red necks who grew up in that uppity Portland suburb. Was always a fish out of water there (although he claims he will retire on the coast for the steel headfishing).

Sounds a bit like me. Only I never did tell and I've since moved out of Bozeman. If it's the Portland 'burn I think you mean, I probably know the guy...

**RootSkier** · 10-31-2020, 01:57 PM

Literally every person I know from "Portland" in MT is actually from Lake Oswego.

**mfcf13** · 10-31-2020, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

Does he live in Missoula and are his initials KJ? If so, I moved here around the same time and we've been friends forever. I have no doubt he'd move to bumfuck ID but I'm not so sure his wife would.

Also, telemarking is stupid and if we are talking about the same person, he recently got wise and locked em down.

No one cares that you don't tele.

**MontuckyFried** · 10-31-2020, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by anotherVTskibum

One key difference in the tech world versus previous tech bubbles is that tech is now embedded in everyone's daily life in a way it wasn't before, both at home and at work.

Personally I'm not as optimistic about the tech industry. Reason being that they are working like crazy to improve AI enough that it can literally handle the large bulk of mundane coding needs. Think of the ripple effects that is going to cause. It certainly won't be this year or even the next few years, but mark my words. It's coming in the near future and then you're going to have a shit ton of programmers in real trouble. Then perhaps they'll be working the assembly lines like me too! Haha.

**MontuckyFried** · 10-31-2020, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by CascadeLuke

Had to pinch myself and reread twice, as we hardly agree.

Haha. Pretty crazy, huh? See? I'm not THAT bad.

Originally Posted by CascadeLuke

Couple the fact property prices were driven over perceived value by buyers who never stepping foot in _____ town. All thanks to current covid proximity fear (in the city) - only to find out their new freedum loving neighbors who have much contempt for them don’t believe in science. And it’s just as dangerous there.
These people lived in a city for so many years by choice and now all of a sudden they think they’ll be content with just outdoor activities in an area that doesn’t welcome outsiders? These people who WFH currently could find themselves a casualty of the economy and leave these homes at a loss. Imagine those people trying to find local work stepping their pay down about 3 scales. Yeah that’ll last.
I think it’s tough to predict the further but the boonies rush will partly reverse itself.

Yup. Exactly. It's kind of what happened to me when I lost the WFH job that allowed me to move to a resort town to begin with. I was kind of screwed as no local job could possibly support that phat mortgage payment. I tried to figure things out and started a local business and that crashed too so had to bail on the whole ski town dream.

I am NOT going to be alone once shit hits the fan with tech or companies start putting the kibosh on WFH more.

Plus there's this very relevant opinion article:
The Serious Disconnect Between A Hot Residential Real Estate Market And The Coming Tsunami Of Foreclosures
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadki...h=336175067ebc
Hoo boy. I think we're headed for a SERIOUS market correction in the nearish future.

**RootSkier** · 10-31-2020, 02:11 PM

Originally Posted by mfcf13

No one cares that you don't tele.

I used to, JONG. Now pics of your sister or GTFO.

**mfcf13** · 10-31-2020, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

I used to, JONG. Now pics of your sister or GTFO.

I'm sorry that you're not up for it anymore, don't take it out on a JONG. And I don't have a sister.

**wolfelot** · 10-31-2020, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Plus there's this very relevant opinion article:
The Serious Disconnect Between A Hot Residential Real Estate Market And The Coming Tsunami Of Foreclosures
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadki...h=336175067ebc
Hoo boy. I think we're headed for a SERIOUS market correction in the nearish future.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

**RootSkier** · 10-31-2020, 03:07 PM

Originally Posted by wolfelot

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

I can't speak to the truth of everything in this article, but the parts I do have personal knowledge about are just flat-out wrong. Consider, for example, this:

It is a disaster. The shutting down of our state and federal court systems beginning in March of 2020, at least as they related to most civil matters, has now created huge backlogs of matters for the courts to work through. Even if there were not any foreclosures for the courts to handle, the courts seem to be anywhere from six months to a year behind where they ought to be in disposing of matters. The courts' processing of litigation is also significantly slowed by the procedures still in place because of COVID-19 which have required less-efficient off-site working by many courtroom personnel.

This is just stupid. The courts I practice in (state and federal trial and appellate courts) are operating at regular capacity and at absolutely normal levels of timeliness. Stuff like this really makes me question everything else in this article, though I suppose there may be some truth to it.

And then there's this:

Conversely, if you are looking to upgrade your home or the location of your residence, and have the cash to do so (and are not just relying on your existing equity), then just be patient and read up on how to buy properties at sheriff sales.

**smartyiak** · 10-31-2020, 03:14 PM

Originally Posted by RootSkier

I can't speak to the truth of everything in this article, but the parts I do have personal knowledge about are just flat-out wrong. Consider, for example, this:

This is just stupid. The courts I practice in (state and federal trial and appellate courts) are operating at regular capacity and at absolutely normal levels of timeliness. Stuff like this really makes me question everything else in this article, though I suppose there may be some truth to it.
:

It’s not stupid where I live (Delaware). We’ve only just started jury trials (last week); first since March. I’ve done ONLY zoom hearings in...forever. There are already rumblings of shutting down again.

During normal times jury pools were 500 or so people bc there were 8-10 trials sked on a trial day (most don’t go...but needed the people if they did). Even if there was only trial how is void dire conducted with 50-75 potential jurors (12 + 2(alt) + strikes + “I can’t serve because...”)

District Court has hasn’t had a trial since much.

Landlord/tenant stuff was offline from March through August (I think...I don’t do that work).

It’s very jurisdiction defendant...but that’s exactly how it is here. And it’s becoming a mess.

Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums

**RootSkier** · 10-31-2020, 03:17 PM

I mean sure, jury trials are largely not happening right now, but jury trials are also largely a thing of the past, so...

**smartyiak** · 10-31-2020, 03:22 PM

Bench trials aren’t really happening here either. Especially complex litigation.

Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums

**klauss** · 10-31-2020, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Yep, that's him. We ski raced on Hood in high school so he's always known how to lock em down but had to tele to fit in with everyone in Montana in the 90s. In his defense, he was one of the few fishing and hunting red necks who grew up in that uppity Portland suburb. Was always a fish out of water there (although he claims he will retire on the coast for the steel headfishing).

Ha. Wendy was a good coach.

**anotherVTskibum** · 11-01-2020, 02:28 PM

Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Personally I'm not as optimistic about the tech industry. Reason being that they are working like crazy to improve AI enough that it can literally handle the large bulk of mundane coding needs. Think of the ripple effects that is going to cause. It certainly won't be this year or even the next few years, but mark my words. It's coming in the near future and then you're going to have a shit ton of programmers in real trouble. Then perhaps they'll be working the assembly lines like me too! Haha.

My primary client has, on a few occasions, tried to bring in additional help from firms both in the US, in Australia, and in cheaper places abroad. The Australian engagement went pretty well but cost almost as much as a good shop in the US; the cheaper places abroad worked out okay, but not well enough to do that again.

As long as those firms are doing well, I'm not going to get too worried about AI coming for my job.

Sent from my SM-G892A using TGR Forums mobile app

**MTT** · 11-01-2020, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by MontuckyFried

Personally I'm not as optimistic about the tech industry. Reason being that they are working like crazy to improve AI enough that it can literally handle the large bulk of mundane coding needs. Think of the ripple effects that is going to cause. It certainly won't be this year or even the next few years, but mark my words. It's coming in the near future and then you're going to have a shit ton of programmers in real trouble. Then perhaps they'll be working the assembly lines like me too! Haha.

Ai still relies on data to make a decision and go down a path. Or whatever someone hardcoded into an application. You should be more concerned about who is doing the coding, and who can manipulate data. And who do they work for?. I think you will be busier than ever as people get a clue and decentralize the intelligence. I could go on and on. But I know you get it.