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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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05-28-2020, 12:45 PM #8976
My house is still up 100k zestimate wise compared to when we bought in 2014, which is a hair over 25%.
Feels pretty accurate and don't see it dropping anytime soon
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05-28-2020, 12:50 PM #8977
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05-28-2020, 12:57 PM #8978
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05-28-2020, 01:09 PM #8979
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05-28-2020, 01:23 PM #8980Registered User
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You have been saying that for a decade. People keep moving here from places like where you live. My tenant lost her job and moved to Texas so I was really worried about trying to re-rent it in the current environment. I upped the rent 15% thinking I could always lower it if I had to. Nope. Within 3 days I had dozens of inquiries, 15 applications, and at least 2 dozen people at my socially distanced open house, and a signed lease and deposit in hand. But to your point. Even if the value drops 50%. I am still up. But I am not looking to sell it.
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05-28-2020, 01:28 PM #8981
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05-28-2020, 01:31 PM #8982
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05-28-2020, 01:31 PM #8983
I suspect you're wrong. Just as the metro area weathered the 2008 crash better than most places, we'll do the same during the next 1-2 years. Some local areas will do worse than others just as before (eg, Longmont was hit badly while Boulder wasn't), but overall this area will do better than most. I'd be more inclined to believe goldenboy's rosy outlook than your Eeyore outlook.
ETA: that is not saying real estate never goes down, because it does. But it goes down more in some places than others. As liv2ski noted, even though CA definitely has a boom and bust cycle, on balance over the last 10-20-30 years it has gone up WAY more than, say, CT."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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05-28-2020, 01:46 PM #8984
lol @ "Poorhouse Brook"
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05-28-2020, 02:01 PM #8985
How soon people forget. Denver weathered 08 well because the RE market didn't bubble the previous decade like in a lot of other places in America. Look it up. But now it has, while many other places have stayed flat since 08. So you tell me how RE goes up another 10-20% in a time when UE looks to settle in the mid teens and national GDP growth will probably be negative for maybe a year or more. What makes the front range so special in that environment? Besides, quality of life continues to deteriorate with the sprawl.
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05-28-2020, 03:16 PM #8986
This is typical http://https://www.zillow.com/homes/...-PSS&3col=true of pricing for new construction around here. There are no less than 5 new neighborhoods being developed as I type. A few more, larger in scope on the drawing board, for 50 plus homes.
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-28-2020, 03:24 PM #8987
I make no guarantees, it absolutely could go down, a lot. But your analysis of why it didn't go down as much in 2008 is really myopic and self serving. I don't need to look anything up, I have been living in the front range since 2000 and have been a homeowner since 2005, and my home was really fucking expensive even then. People bitched like mad about Boulder property values back then.
And I see you've become a local expert on QoL here. Well, people on this forum do bitch because of the sprawl and expense, but all that growth has led to a huge boom in the food scene, the arts scene, etc. Many people in the metro area would argue the opposite from your Eeyore take, they would say the QoL has gone up over the last 12 years.
If there is a massive economic collapse, everywhere will take a hit for sure. But I do not think the Denver area is in for a bigger hit than elsewhere; in fact I think the opposite. We're all prognosticating and I could be wrong, but all real estate is local and you don't know as much about the front range market as you think you do (and in actuality, lumping the "front range market" into 1 violates the all real estate is local thing, because a place in the Highlands will perform totally differently than a McMansion in Aurora)."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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05-28-2020, 03:30 PM #8988
myopia? People were bitching like mad about how expensive CT was in 2000. In 2005. And it went down.
wasnt Denver one of the most leveraged metros?
the best argument why Denver won’t go down is the irrational Denver homers saying it won’t. That’s also the worst argument why it won’t. Front range homer’s have said it’s got great QOL for 15 years, despite huge changes in price. And population.
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05-28-2020, 03:48 PM #8989Hucked to flat once
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Small to mid-sizers are all saying the boom will continue as people want a more rural life and remote employees are now a thing that will continue. Calling Bend, Boise, or Bozeman rural is silly to me but for real metro folks, I could see the draw. Sucks for us though.
Yes, myopic, but I've seen an uptick in out of state plates as people are becoming more comfortable traveling to look. CA, WA, CO, and TX in that order.
https://www.kivitv.com/rebound/rebou...ood-into-idaho
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05-28-2020, 03:56 PM #8990
I don't know about prices continuing to boom, but I find it hard to imagine more than a 10% down turn in prices later in the year into 2021 if you live in a desirable area and within median pricing range. The high end stuff is taking a bigger hit for a variety of reasons. Stuff in my hood is slow to sell unless it is at the bargain basement price of $2M or less
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05-28-2020, 03:56 PM #8991
Oh, well, (Benny throws arms in air) oh, yeah, Boulder. Pffffttt. Like Boulder is Denver. It's been an upper class hippie refuge since people were doing orange sunshine. You guys were way ahead of S.F.. Of course it's expensive. And then you built a moat around the town with all sorts of restrictive zoning that essentially keeps the rabble out and limits building. Sorry, Boulder doesn't count. But, I'd put a few beers that Boulder survives well. The rich, as always, will do well. Look at this stupid stock market.
No, the rest of the front range didn't drop in 08 because it didn't bubble the decade before that along with a lot of America. The Midwest didn't bubble either. From what I understand, Denver was still hampered by oil prices and telecom busting along with the dot coms around 2000. You guys have figured out how to succeed since, but still can't figure out how Denver makes money in a unique way. Nice weather, though. Fuck I70.
Edit: One wonders how Boulder will withstand the loss of activity around the UC campus that normally has 40000 kids and who knows how much staff for more than half the year. You can probably kiss a lot of that away for some time
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05-28-2020, 05:15 PM #8992Registered User
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let me help you benny
the metro ny area is nothing but a cesspool of humanity
denver metro and the front range as bland boring and uninspiring as it is, is still better than metro ny
the weather is much nicer the access to outdoor amenities is much better so no matter how shitty things are people will want to move to the front range
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05-28-2020, 05:47 PM #8993
Well, a lot of people pay good money to live in a cesspool. I guess if you are going to live in a cesspool, you might as well live in a nice abode.
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-28-2020, 06:37 PM #8994
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05-28-2020, 06:50 PM #8995Registered User
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05-28-2020, 06:59 PM #8996
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05-28-2020, 07:13 PM #8997
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05-29-2020, 09:56 AM #8998
Agreed, I have seen so many beautiful pictures from back east, but for me, the weather and often the property taxes are a complete buzz kill. I would love to live closer to Yurp, but I just prefer West Coast weather and winters/snow conditions. If I won Mega Millions, I could see having my fall home back there.
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05-29-2020, 09:59 AM #8999Registered User
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05-29-2020, 10:01 AM #9000
I remember meeting a woman in Colorado who was from CT., and the one thing she said she missed most was the green. It's gotta get tiresome to live in a brown, dry place.
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