Real Estate Crash thread

[panchosdad]

fuck an a
I deleted my other post

your scheme sounds just like 2005 don't do it seriously don't do it

you only got 100k in equity that really isn't shit that's nothing in the colorado or metro denver market that 100k can disappear tomorrow

so you are going to borrow against that equity to buy another over priced property unless you are going to clear half of the rent into your pocket that doesn't work your going to borrow against nothing to buy another over pirced place just no

things are all hot and perfect right now but you will be left holding the bag when no one wants to pay 3k for rent and you are over extented (2005)

once the boomers starting shitting in bed and interest rates go up the awesome never going to bust denver market is going to do that did you miss 2007 even 2001 wasn't pretty either
your late to the game don't do dumb things

not trying to be an asshole just being realistic

I've heard too many anecdotes like this of late to not get serious 2008 flashbacks. Fred's got the pulse.

[dunfree]

HELOC and go all in on crypto.

[climberevan]

Fred definitely expressed it in his own unique way, but I agree completely.

I remember very distinctly a conversation with a friend in CB in 2007. He was building a duplex to sell half of and live in the other half, and I told him he was crazy and that the market couldn't just keep going up like it had been. He finished the project in late 2008. You know the rest of the story.

Anyone who has been paying any attention for the last 20 years has to recognize some of the same signs now.

[Tryingtostaywarm]

I think the only thing that I personally, as 10yrs in the Front Range, see that is a little different.
I don't know anyone who can't afford their houses. I know multiple, if not 10s in the last two years who have bought 500-1million dollar houses. Everyone put down $100k+ cash, hell my buddy just put $410k down on a $1million note.
From what I see out here, it isn't people overextending themself or bad lending. It is people who have money, unlike myyself who is just trying to fit in where I can.
I bought a house for $450k, which was GROSSLY inflated. It's worth about $200k in another part of America. My mortgage is $2100 with utilites.
I can afford that ALL day long on my $115k salary. Doesn't even matter if the market tanks, I can still afford it and not have any issue. My friends who have bought $500-1million they are all in the $150k+ dual income categroy.

Question for the gurus. California was like Colorado except decades ago....it's never gone down. Why would Colorado go down when it isn't bad lending like Florida. It is just people with money who are buying overpriced houses but can afford it? Our weather is awesome, mountains are awesome, people don't care about I70 being busy.

As with the numbers on my estate.
$2700 rental income with $1900 mortgage. I'm on the low end of the rental market in my neighborhood, most are $2800-3k
$600k house(that's why I'm leaning towards), needs $33k>HELOC down cause it's a blend VA/Conventional
Numbers today were 3.25% $3k a month with escow, my signifiant other puts in $900
I'm back down to $2100 a month.

[fastfred]

What goes up comes down what comes down goes up can you weather it? Playing games w loans prolly not

I deal with some very wealthy people on a daily basis you either wealthy or not don't pretend my favorite is about ready to bug me she's 40 never worked a day in her life her husband's family owns one of the largest dealership conglomerates in America he's never worked a day in his life either I burn 100k a month read wash post denver post and wall street journal every day we are fucked

Don't do it

[rideit]

One thing that doesn’t cost anything is punctuation, my friend.

[liv2ski]

Fred definitely expressed it in his own unique way, but I agree completely.

I remember very distinctly a conversation with a friend in CB in 2007. He was building a duplex to sell half of and live in the other half, and I told him he was crazy and that the market couldn't just keep going up like it had been. He finished the project in late 2008. You know the rest of the story.

Anyone who has been paying any attention for the last 20 years has to recognize some of the same signs now.

The growth during that period of time was due to "Liar Loans" being about 95% of the loans originated. That is not the case this time. You will not have a collapse like 2008 unless everyone is suddenly unemployed.

[natty dread]

Selling my house of 24 years in Hood River, OR. Listing goes live 1/14. Any interested dentists? Lemme know!

[natty dread]

fuck an a
I deleted my other post

your scheme sounds just like 2005 don't do it seriously don't do it

you only got 100k in equity that really isn't shit that's nothing in the colorado or metro denver market that 100k can disappear tomorrow

so you are going to borrow against that equity to buy another over priced property unless you are going to clear half of the rent into your pocket that doesn't work your going to borrow against nothing to buy another over pirced place just no

things are all hot and perfect right now but you will be left holding the bag when no one wants to pay 3k for rent and you are over extented (2005)

once the boomers starting shitting in bed and interest rates go up the awesome never going to bust denver market is going to do that did you miss 2007 even 2001 wasn't pretty either
your late to the game don't do dumb things

not trying to be an asshole just being realistic

Yep.

[zion zig zag]

Selling my house of 24 years in Hood River, OR. Listing goes live 1/14. Any interested dentists? Lemme know!

What’s the next chapter for you?

[natty dread]

What’s the next chapter for you?

Hey dude! Downsizing and simplifying. Property nearby and build a very small 2 BR house. And perhaps a significant portion of my time abroad.

[Name Redacted]

Question for the gurus. California was like Colorado except decades ago....it's never gone down. Why would Colorado go down when it isn't bad lending like Florida. It is just people with money who are buying overpriced houses but can afford it? Our weather is awesome, mountains are awesome, people don't care about I70 being busy.

Maybe you should start on page 1 of this thread and read through. You think CA never goes down?
Source:
SD: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA. Could you weather that storm?
LA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA
SF: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

Do you think everyone else in this thread hasn't experienced the same increase in home value you are talking about? I've actually done almost exactly what you are talking about, just with far more margin. But hey, single guy, no kids, what do you have to lose?

[fastfred]

The growth during that period of time was due to "Liar Loans" being about 95% of the loans originated. That is not the case this time. You will not have a collapse like 2008 unless everyone is suddenly unemployed.

I got a house with a liar loan proud of it

and today people are borrowing against the fake appreciation of their houses taking money out and pissing it away on toys and vacations and debt
when the average home loan rate hits 5% at the end of next year home prices will start dropping

not being all gloomy and end of the world just trying to keep myself in check shit is rotten to the core right now

[skaredshtles]

today people are borrowing against the fake appreciation of their houses taking money out and pissing it away on toys and vacations and debt

Are they? It would be curious if they were doing this *again*...

[altasnob]

You think CA never goes down?
Source:
SD: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA. Could you weather that storm?
LA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA
SF: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

When you factor in Liv2ski's liar loans accounting for the crash in 2009, since the 1980s, CA real estate has been one of the best investments one could possibly make. I think Denver metro is getting into the same league as the elite CA cities and Seattle, where everyone always makes money on real estate.

[zion zig zag]

Hey dude! Downsizing and simplifying. Property nearby and build a very small 2 BR house. And perhaps a significant portion of my time abroad.

Nice, sounds like a good plan! I'll have to track you down overseas and buy you a beer. It's crazy to think that it's been nearly twenty years since you gave me a tour of your station and interview advice.

[schuss]

On top of that - what does Denver have that will ensure it continues to be an in-demand metro? SF has tech and biotech. LA has entertainment and fashion. SD has the beach.
I don't know of anything Denver has that couldn't be duplicated by other mountain west metros. Am I wrong?
That's the biggest risk - demand cooling as there's no tentpole growth industry.

[AK47bp]

More like $150k these days but still funny


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[altasnob]

There really is no comparison to Denver. Salt Lake metro is one third the size. Boise and Reno even smaller. Denver IS the only large metro area in the West that gives you the Rocky Mountain lifestyle. And Denver is much more appealing to the Eastern half of the US than say, SLC, Boise, and Reno. Large metros can weather storms because they have diverse economies. A major reason Seattle metro's economy stays so strong is not only all the tech here, but also because it is a major port and a major military center (industries that are recession proof). Denver doesn't have this, but as it gets larger, I see it becoming even more stable. Same with Portland.

[natty dread]

Nice, sounds like a good plan! I'll have to track you down overseas and buy you a beer. It's crazy to think that it's been nearly twenty years since you gave me a tour of your station and interview advice.

Yeah man crazy, I remember that day! Over 25 years in for me now, nearing the end zone, I’m so ready!
If you’re still in utah, you might be able to buy me that beer sooner than later. First 10 days of March, I think.

[ötzi]

Hey L., iceman here (not sure if you knew about my whole name-change debacle). Gotta be 15 years anyways since me and the kid stayed at your pad but I remember it well. Cool place, good luck with the whole thing and the next steps.

[simple]

Denver has much more industry that people even realize. The rail and truck movement through that city is massive. The exponential growth in population is certainly tied to tech, energy, and healthcare all of which see billions in profit. Could it get beat up? Sure but not die completely

[fastfred]

On top of that - what does Denver have that will ensure it continues to be an in-demand metro? SF has tech and biotech. LA has entertainment and fashion. SD has the beach.
I don't know of anything Denver has that couldn't be duplicated by other mountain west metros. Am I wrong?
That's the biggest risk - demand cooling as there's no tentpole growth industry.

lifestyle and image

outside of the small ring on the west side of town, with easy access to the mtns you could be in any city anywhere the sprawl is amazing and your that much further from the mountains it's the idea that you are in the mountains but your really not

they are trying to grow tech and mfg but the cost of commercial real estate is pretty hard for manufacturing
the one thing that is overlooked by most is logistics, most people just think they hit a button and the product magically arrives

denver is a massive hub for moving goods, it's the largest place around from Kansas City on one side to Vegas and Phoenix on the other. Sure Salt Lake moves product but not on the scale of Denver.

[natty dread]

I’m aware J, I lurk but don’t really post anymore obvi i remember that time well, your kid was just a tyke, goddamn we’re old (you’ll always be older lol!)
Thank you, fingers crossed someone pays the obscene amount I’m asking.
Never built before, so might come to you for advice as that plays out.
Glad you’re still above ground dood!

[schuss]

My point is that my impression (note I have not been in Denver in years) is that Denver is just another western sprawl-city with it's only real identity being "kinda near the mountains". If I were to wager all my money (per the posts on getting another house), it's not as safe a bet as it could be.