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  1. #5976
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Your reading comprehension is lacking. I was talking about HELOCs, and equity extraction through refinancing. Different animal. The numbers aren't as easily available as price indexes, but at least trillions were cashed out of the American home market in the decade before the crash. Those people signed up for a reset of their obligations in life, got suckered into you can have it all now because the market is only going up mentality, wouldn't you love to finally own a Porsche? Or, on a more practical note, they had to do it to pay for junior's incredibly expensive education they didn't save for. Either way, they extended a loan period their parents celebrated the ending of in their fifties, to almost their grave time. There's millions of people out there like that, mostly in later ages. The gen xers got sucked in the market of first timers during the frenzy, and they're really the most screwed. They'll never retire.
    I don't know where you live, maybe it's California or Denver or Manhattan or Miami or some other hot market, but, no way the housing market has appreciated enough to cover all that debt the way the people who took those loans thought it would turn out. They may not be underwater, but, they're close, which isn't enough to justify a sale, if it's possible. So, they keep on keeping on and stay put. But, the market is still absurd in most places. Our economy will never grow if millions and millions of young people are carrying thousands of student debt into adulthood and then look at a housing market that needs six figure down payments in markets with jobs. That's just wrong, and won't last. I know I'm talking to the entitled, privileged 1% of TGR, with plenty of mommy and daddy cash to back them up, but, the rest of the world is still hurting, and it ain't getting any better. If things don't change, Republicans, robots, offshoring, and the Internet will result in many less solid paying jobs in ten years. It won't stop. And this bubble will deflate.

    I love th second part of your post. Like you have any worries that the 99% have. I'm talking to a wall of cluelessness. But, go ahead, build in the stupid zone. Have fun.


    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Thus is the root of a lot of problems in our economy. You're one of millions, stuck. Trillions in HELOCs were taken out a little over ten years ago, and that's only a little over one third of the way there. Most, or, many, are underwater, too. I'm convinced that's why inventory is so low in many places.
    Really Benny? You said clear as day that you think most HELOCS that were taken out over 10 years ago are under water. There are very few loans today under water unless something happened to the property.

    You are right about student loans being a drawdown on the economy though.

    The idea that I am the 1% or have a trust fund is laughable. My Dad worked construction, my mom was a teacher. My grandma was a single mom in the 40s-70s and worked in a factory. Grandpa on the other side
    worked construction. There is no family money. All of them lived in a trailer at one point in their life. I'm not self made, but I am the product of 2 generations who tried to make their kids lives better than their own.



    Edit - Glademaster nailed it. The solution to high priced housing is to increase supply. Restricting demand is a bandaid that starts an infection of NIMBY. You want cheap places to stay in mountain towns or anywhere? Allow people to build a bunch of 2 and 3 bed triple deckers and fourplexes on small lots. This shit isnt complicated until city hall via NIMBYists get involved.
    Last edited by neufox47; 11-08-2017 at 12:38 AM.

  2. #5977
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    Really Benny? You said clear as day that you think most HELOCS that were taken out over 10 years ago are under water. There are very few loans today under water unless something happened to the property.
    100% accurate. As usual, Bunny is trying to be an expert on a subject he clearly knows little to nothing about but continues to spew on! There are very few with negative values, even in the hardest hit geos. The small percentage that still are underwater are mainly mobile/manufactured homes in rural areas that were likely true subprime originations. There are still a very small number of 125% loans out there but most were modified between 08-12.

  3. #5978
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    Exactly. You're clueless. Stay that way.
    Hey, Helena is a great town, I've always been impressed visiting. Despite a few local smug douchebags, the people are humble and friendly.

    Jeez.

  4. #5979
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    Quote Originally Posted by FussyDutchman View Post
    100% accurate. As usual, Bunny is trying to be an expert on a subject he clearly knows little to nothing about but continues to spew on! There are very few with negative values, even in the hardest hit geos. The small percentage that still are underwater are mainly mobile/manufactured homes in rural areas that were likely true subprime originations. There are still a very small number of 125% loans out there but most were modified between 08-12.
    The truth is actually somewhere in between. The worst parts of the bubble (inland empire, parts of South Florida, etc) are indeed still under water. There are also huge swathes of the flat part of the US that have barely budged in the past 10 yrs, though to your point, those homes did not see major bubble appreciation.

    There is still a fairly massive NPL market with LTVs well above 90 and often above 100. Many of these loans Re-perform due to mods or an improving economy, but the house is still either underwater or close to it.

    That said, the nation has massively underinvested in housing in the past 10 yrs. Unless rates go up too fast or the economy takes a nose dive, demand for affordable housing is likely to drive millennials to those same exurbs and third tier cities that are underwater, thus driving those prices up.
    No gnar was harmed in the writing of this post...

  5. #5980
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    Quote Originally Posted by mogul5480 View Post
    demand for affordable housing is likely to drive millennials to those same exurbs and third tier cities that are underwater, thus driving those prices up.
    I disagree as my kids are a classic example. I encouraged them to move an hour out of San Diego to Temecula to get a property at half the price. Both said "no fuckin way". Why leave where it is nice to buy where you won't be as happy?
    I don't think many people will do that, like maybe 10%. With the high cost of land all the builders can do is build more dense housing (4 homes where a SFR once stood) if they can get the permits to do so.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  6. #5981
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    It is interesting and refreshing to see the opinions of the full time mountain residents (Summit, Shred, Goldenboy etc.). I agree with almost everything they said. Here are a couple more data points to consider.

    a. Water - water is for sale to the highest bidder. Water rights, whether an individual well or a water district, dictate use. This is non-negotiable at the local level. This is pertinent to high density development. For example, mother-in-laws (additional dwelling units in public planning speak) technically require a water right.

    Where I live, a water and sewer tap costs $24K, quarterly services fees are $300 and may taxes annually to the district are about $1300 (and I'm on the low end because my assessed value is lower). Go over to Summit or Eagle County and the tap fees can be double easily. With that water right I can't (legally) wash my car, water my lawn or have a hot tub. Compare that to your Denver Water bill.

    These water rights are being aggressive enforced by downstream user groups. It is real and will become more real. The are some water districts, municipalities and HOAs that are getting very nervous about this. The 48months will be interesting.

    To drill a well and install a septic system, you need engineered design and a permit from the state. Reality is that our mountain soil (in the locations not yet developed) isn't great for either. That's why you see 5 acre lots and such because higher density would require either connection to an existing water/san district or creation of a water/san district. Both of which would be paid for by the developer.

    So here is a real world example. The water/san district I live in has about 78 taps to sell based on current engineered capacity. There is a platted (meaning fulling designed and OK'd by the county) subdivision tangent to our district. The sticking build to higher density development is joining the district. The district says you pay the tap fees, the taxes, the usage fees AND the cost of developing your own infrastructure. The potential development says, "Fuck that, I'll just do lower density with well and septic"!

    Who's right, who's wrong? Who's money should be used to make it better?

  7. #5982
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    Everything depends on location. In San Diego we are fully built out, so the only solution is to allow higher density housing. The builder pays the fees and passes them on to the buyers, same as it has always been. Where's all the water will come from, is another issue. Desalination plants? (a problem unto themselves)

    The fact of the matter is there are just a bunch of people between LA, Orange, the I.E., Riverside and San Diego counties. Having water for everyone is a challenge all municipal planners have to deal with.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  8. #5983
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    Quote Originally Posted by hatchgreenchile View Post
    +1 on the entire post - nailed it.
    X2.

    The number of people just starting to enter the workforce that expect/demand a six figure salary is dumbfounding. Most of the applicants I deal with are applying for jobs in an industry where no tangible hard good is provided. Cray.
    `•.¸¸.•´><((((º>`•.¸¸.•´¯`•.¸.•´¯`•...¸><((((º>

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  9. #5984
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    What industries?

  10. #5985
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    Good posts and conversation. I hadn't even thought of water rights being a factor (wasn't where I grew up).

    Article this morning on Whitefish affordable housing plans - http://flatheadbeacon.com/2017/11/07...-housing-plan/

  11. #5986
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    I disagree as my kids are a classic example. I encouraged them to move an hour out of San Diego to Temecula to get a property at half the price. Both said "no fuckin way". Why leave where it is nice to buy where you won't be as happy?
    I don't think many people will do that, like maybe 10%. With the high cost of land all the builders can do is build more dense housing (4 homes where a SFR once stood) if they can get the permits to do so.
    The exurbs will become our new ghettos.

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  12. #5987
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    Really Benny? You said clear as day that you think most HELOCS that were taken out over 10 years ago are under water. There are very few loans today under water unless something happened to the property.

    You are right about student loans being a drawdown on the economy though.

    The idea that I am the 1% or have a trust fund is laughable. My Dad worked construction, my mom was a teacher. My grandma was a single mom in the 40s-70s and worked in a factory. Grandpa on the other side
    worked construction. There is no family money. All of them lived in a trailer at one point in their life. I'm not self made, but I am the product of 2 generations who tried to make their kids lives better than their own.



    Edit - Glademaster nailed it. The solution to high priced housing is to increase supply. Restricting demand is a bandaid that starts an infection of NIMBY. You want cheap places to stay in mountain towns or anywhere? Allow people to build a bunch of 2 and 3 bed triple deckers and fourplexes on small lots. This shit isnt complicated until city hall via NIMBYists get involved.
    Listen, we could argue either way forever, but, neither of us have clear, solid data to point to. It's not as clearcut as the "first mortgage", or actual home price market. But, you have to accept something. For the first time in our history, probably any housing market history, trillions of dollars of loans were taken out of the equity value of our market. Never happened before. Now, don't you think many many of those loans are still out there, still festering, and will be for a decade or two? They didn't just vanish. They were 15-30 year term. Not everyone who is obligated to them live in hot markets.

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  13. #5988
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    Quote Originally Posted by muted View Post
    Hey, Helena is a great town, I've always been impressed visiting. Despite a few local smug douchebags, the people are humble and friendly.

    Jeez.
    Sorry bro, I apologize for that. I'm not sure smug is the right word, but I am consciously grateful every day that a place like this exists for me to live in. Took me 18 years of living in Montana to figure that out. It's a personal thing, I just like a chill vibe, and that can't include a destination ski resort on the edge of town.

    But that said, for my money Helena has a pretty good central location for hitting a good variety of ski areas. So I wouldn't say that skiing isn't important to me, actually it is very important. I just want affordable housing and good jobs too. I know you understand what I'm saying.

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  14. #5989
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pow4Brains View Post
    X2.

    The number of people just starting to enter the workforce that expect/demand a six figure salary is dumbfounding. Most of the applicants I deal with are applying for jobs in an industry where no tangible hard good is provided. Cray.
    hahahaha

    software, lindahl.

  15. #5990
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lindahl View Post
    What industries?
    Customer service, construction management and enginerding mostly.

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    "Having been Baptized by uller his frosty air now burns my soul with confirmation. I am once again pure." - frozenwater

    "once i let go of my material desires many opportunities for playing with the planet emerge. emerge - to come into being through evolution. ok back to work - i gotta pack." - Slaag Master

    "As for Flock of Seagulls, everytime that song comes up on my ipod, I turn it up- way up." - goldenboy

  16. #5991
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    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    hahahaha

    software, lindahl.
    Heh.

    Sent from my SM-G950U using TGR Forums mobile app
    `•.¸¸.•´><((((º>`•.¸¸.•´¯`•.¸.•´¯`•...¸><((((º>

    "Having been Baptized by uller his frosty air now burns my soul with confirmation. I am once again pure." - frozenwater

    "once i let go of my material desires many opportunities for playing with the planet emerge. emerge - to come into being through evolution. ok back to work - i gotta pack." - Slaag Master

    "As for Flock of Seagulls, everytime that song comes up on my ipod, I turn it up- way up." - goldenboy

  17. #5992
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    Sorry bro, I apologize for that. I'm not sure smug is the right word, but I am consciously grateful every day that a place like this exists for me to live in. Took me 18 years of living in Montana to figure that out. It's a personal thing, I just like a chill vibe, and that can't include a destination ski resort on the edge of town.

    But that said, for my money Helena has a pretty good central location for hitting a good variety of ski areas. So I wouldn't say that skiing isn't important to me, actually it is very important. I just want affordable housing and good jobs too. I know you understand what I'm saying.

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    I understand what yer saying now, yes...no worries. I came in hot as usual, whoops. Helena has a lot to offer. Better weather, better biking, better prices than Bozeman...but I can't drive that far to ski, but that's just me. A mountain town without many skiers does sound like heaven though. Helena is a gem for certain types.

  18. #5993
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    @foggy_goggles great information and points there... it really does put a crimp in the "just build a shitton of efficiency studios" solution. Water rights are a huge deal and limiting factor. (If I wanted to be well off, I'd become a water rights attorney)

    It is more expensive than anyone considers and then you throw infrastructure requirements on top of it. Local example I'm not sure what traffic and other infrastructure requirements will end up resulting from 500-750 extra residents in new high density west Keystone West Hills and Wintergreen developments under construction.

    @Tips^Up apart from Open Space buying up developable land, it is intersting to browse the county GIS and see just how many massive tracks of empty developable land are being sat on by the ski corps... looking around Keystone area, Vail owns hundreds and hundreds of acres that are empty.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  19. #5994
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    Quote Originally Posted by muted View Post
    I understand what yer saying now, yes...no worries. I came in hot as usual, whoops. Helena has a lot to offer. Better weather, better biking, better prices than Bozeman...but I can't drive that far to ski, but that's just me. A mountain town without many skiers does sound like heaven though. Helena is a gem for certain types.
    maybe all types
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    off your knees Louie

  20. #5995
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    hahahaha

    software, lindahl.
    Probably just busting my balls, but...

    I provided for a hell of a lot of hard goods when I did that for satellites, spaceships, jets, audio/video electronics, and phone infrastructure (base stations, switching centers, etc). Currently I’m more or less in the banking/finance world. It was cool producing hard goods and all, but I’ll keep producing intangible goods as long as they keep paying me a metric fuckton more (and its still really fun and interesting work, just not as cool from the outside).

  21. #5996
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    Quote Originally Posted by mogul5480 View Post
    The truth is actually somewhere in between. The worst parts of the bubble (inland empire, parts of South Florida, etc) are indeed still under water. There are also huge swathes of the flat part of the US that have barely budged in the past 10 yrs, though to your point, those homes did not see major bubble appreciation.

    There is still a fairly massive NPL market with LTVs well above 90 and often above 100. Many of these loans Re-perform due to mods or an improving economy, but the house is still either underwater or close to it.

    That said, the nation has massively underinvested in housing in the past 10 yrs. Unless rates go up too fast or the economy takes a nose dive, demand for affordable housing is likely to drive millennials to those same exurbs and third tier cities that are underwater, thus driving those prices up.
    Sure, there are still specific areas that have higher concentrations of negative equity but they are a relatively small percentage of the overall market, mainly due to price appreciation in the last 5yrs, especially in the hard hit areas you mention in south FL which benefited from a huge influx of foreign $ buying at distressed prices.

    The NPL market is still sizable but the vast majority of that supply is coming from the GSEs and HUD. Most of the large national and super regional banks have long sold off their NPL loans and many are actually now buyers of distressed pools. Even the GSE pools (a couple totaling $3b+ sold recently) are steadily seeing current loan to values coming down in to the 80's where a year+ ago many of the government sales had values that were high 90's or 100%+. Same with the re-performing pools which are in very high demand for fund buyers due to the relatively low re-default rates and increasing securitization opportunities available.

    I agree with your comment about affordable housing being an issue. Many who had the ability to buy in some of the heavily hit markets were able to get great deals but most did not have that luxury since loan standards were tightened so far that they shut out otherwise, qualified buyers. More first time buyers were forced to continue renting and will likely have trouble entering the market as rates rise in the future. Credit reform is something that has been needed for many years and we are finally starting to see new ways of evaluating a borrowers credit worthiness and not relying on the current scoring system that leaves the vast majority of Americans unable to enter the housing market because their scores are too low to qualify.

  22. #5997
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    @Tips^Up apart from Open Space buying up developable land, it is intersting to browse the county GIS and see just how many massive tracks of empty developable land are being sat on by the ski corps... looking around Keystone area, Vail owns hundreds and hundreds of acres that are empty.
    yup

    one of my favorite realtor lines is "we're running out of develop able land"

    total bullshit in summit county, summit will easily be able to double if not triple the total units available (condos and single family houses), I use copper as an example, copper mtn has been plated out for full development and approved by the county, they can double the number of units that have already been built, that's alot of possible growth

  23. #5998
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    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    W
    Reason #1: Rampant, toxic NIMBYism.

    Reason #2: Ironically titled "Community Development" departments populated by anti-development control freaks who run roughshod over the rights of property owners and who seem to think it is their directive to minimize opportunities for self-determination within their jurisdictions (i.e. only being in favor of deed restricted development and palatial estates, while rabidly dismissing proposals for mid-range free market housing development).

    Reason #3: Onerous, burdensome Land Use and Zoning codes which make the possibility of mid-range free market development on any scale about as likely as North Korea sending someone to the moon. For example, there are several counties in the Colorado High Country, where the most recently adopted land use codes explicitly ban the creation of any new residential lots smaller than 5 acres. You can consolidate small lots into 5+ acre parcels, but new subdivisions aren't really an option in many places. You can't buy 500 acres of sagebrush 15-20 miles north of Silverthorne and turn it into 400 single family lots.

    Reason #4: The high cost of construction in many mountain communities.
    4A: Materials costs are higher, as outlined above by GB. We regularly see remodel projects with valuations in the $400-750/square foot range.

    4B: Many mountain communities have strict requirements w/r/t Zoning and Engineering regulations, which contribute to ballooning project costs for seemingly simple projects (i.e. You go to put a new paver patio in your backyard, and need to hire a Civil Engineer to produce a Grading and Drainage report for you, and depending upon changes to your pervious/impervious ratio, you may need to add a drywell or some sort of onsite detention/treatment. Or in the case of a new development, perhaps the project goes through 4 or 5 or 6 rounds of review before it's approved, every round requiring revisions by your design team. That's cost overrun city before you even get a shovel in the dirt).

    4C: The permit review process is often slow, and very expensive. Yes, that's the cost of doing business, but how many people in this thread have gone to pull a permit to remodel their kitchen, and had the process take 6 months, cost $20,000 and require a survey? In the case of larger projects, fees due to the municipality can run into the seven figures pretty easily.

    I'm of the opinion that there is demand for mid-range free market housing on the periphery of many of Colorado's ski towns, and that it is the expense, time and general onerousness of the review process for those projects, that plays a large part in killing them. It's easier for big construction firms to build deed restricted projects where they often receive waivers for a lot of the fees associated with the review process, may receive priority review, and generally have their hands held through the process from permit application to CO, or for more specialized guys to build $5,000,000 SFR's at a rate of one every 2-3 years.

    There needs to be more free market development, and more development friendly policies, or the people who provide essential services to these communities will drift away until you really are left with towns like Benny describes, full of millionaires and skids, with nary anyone in between. And yes, with it will come some strip malls, chain stores and things that aren't perfectly in sync with a bucolic mountain town, but they are things that make areas livable. Colorado is growing, and you aren't going to put a stop to that, so there needs to be intelligent growth, not just tree huggers and those who have already bought in screaming "NO!"

    My 3 cents

    #1: yup, seems like the more money you have the more free time you have the bigger asshole nimby you are

    #2 yup, dealing with planners is a joke, pretty much boils down to how many hand jobs you are willing to give and if they are having their period this week or not

    #3 maybe, silverthorne has annexed whatever that land is outside of town, where they are buildling complete shit box 750k houses, can't remember the name, the development is a mess and I feel for whoever is buying those piles of crap, the developer then decided to build a village out there too, high density, shitty little local houses, all approved by the town of silverthorne, meanwhile silverthorne has been desperatly trying to build a "downtown" core. yet they go ahead and allow this crappy development three or so miles from downtown to happen, who the fuck is in charge of these decisions

    #4 yup, High cost of construction, ha ha ha, people are fucking idtiots, the number of workers has shrunk so bad in the past few years it's unreal. No more mexicans immigrating, white kids don't want to work hard, cost of living in a ski town or commuting has shafted the average worker, and a majority of people moving to ski towns young and old don't have to work, I've got a bag of dicks on my payroll, way too many of them and they are actual employees none of this subcontractor bullshit, people shit their pants when they get a price from me, and I've had to explain how much labor costs and they still don't get it, they think some dickfag with a couple tools living in a mountain resort town should get 12 bucks an hr, It costs me $9.00 and change per hr per person right off the top before anything happens, so almost 500 dollars a day is pissed into the wind for all the bullshit, my lowest guy gets 25 an hr my highest paid guy gets 40 bucks an hr. payroll every two weeks is a nut, meanwhile I'm at home jerking off to porn on my computer

    #4b&c permits, zoning, engineering, you name it is all part of the game, it's pretty basic stuff to me now, it's actually easy, step one, step two, step three, I've watched so many homeowner and "contractors" try to figure out the maze I start laughing, it's pretty simple, I can do it with my eyes closed now, people just shit themselves when I say 10k will get us started another 25k will cover my bullshit and then we can actually start doing something, for example my average 2 bath, 2-3 bedroom, one kitchen, 1500 sq ft full condo remodel runs 150k - 250k. Additions and houses go full retard. Was meeting with someone this summer and I started talking square foot costs, they both literally gasped for air, $75.00 sq ft is money just pissed away. I pride myself on being as expensive as I can but the results and process are top, for example I charge $20.00 sq ft for floor tile install minus the tile. Plus my 22% contractor mark up on top. Go buy a house in indiana if you can't afford it.

    Need to smoke another bowl and drive around some more.

  24. #5999
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    I love fastfred.
    "Zee damn fat skis are ruining zee piste !" -Oscar Schevlin

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  25. #6000
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Everything depends on location. In San Diego we are fully built out, so the only solution is to allow higher density housing. The builder pays the fees and passes them on to the buyers, same as it has always been. Where's all the water will come from, is another issue. Desalination plants? (a problem unto themselves)

    The fact of the matter is there are just a bunch of people between LA, Orange, the I.E., Riverside and San Diego counties. Having water for everyone is a challenge all municipal planners have to deal with.
    Over water bungalows!
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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