Real Estate Crash thread

[El Chupacabra]

You don't get rich by working. I hope that didn't confuse you.

Bless your heart

[dan_pdx]

The article says he lives near the proposed development. I guess the town must have figured that was already the ghetto so why not?

I lol'd. Seriously, Chappelle is really turning into an asshole, or maybe he always was one and used to hide it more effectively.

[Meadow Skipper]

I don't work. I try to keep taxable income to a minimum.

Same here, but I didn’t say anything about working.

Fucking jerk offs

Blow me.

[altasnob]

I lol'd. Seriously, Chappelle is really turning into an asshole, or maybe he always was one and used to hide it more effectively.

Maybe Chappelle is an asshole, but I think it's pretty cool the dude still lives in his shitty ass hometown of Yellow Springs, Ohio rather than every other wealthy celebrity who gravitates to LA, NY, and now Austin. And he appears to actually give a fuck about Yellow Springs, Ohio. His Dad was a professor and dean of a college there. Definition of keeping it real.

[Bunion 2020]

Ever been to Yellow Springs? For Ohio it is a really nice area.

[skaredshtles]

Ever been to Yellow Springs? For Ohio it is a really nice area.

Which ain't saying much.

[Mustonen]

I grew up in central OH. If I didn’t like skiing and biking and snow and water…. But I did like 4 seasons… It’s easy to see how I wouldn’t mind going back. The place is not entirely without charm.

[skaredshtles]

I grew up in central OH. If I didn’t like skiing and biking and snow and water…. But I did like 4 seasons… It’s easy to see how I wouldn’t mind going back. The place is not entirely without charm.

So what you're saying is that it's like Michigan... only worse.

[Tye 1on]

Not sure if this is the right thread/forum but i was quite impressed with this article on ski towns RE. https://www.deseret.com/2022/2/7/229...ing-healthcare

[4matic]

30 year could break through 4% today or next week. Close now...

[Bunion 2020]

Which ain't saying much.

No but when I was living in Indianapolis about 400 years ago Yellow Springs and Clifton Gorge was decent climbing within a couple of hours and was way nicer than Indy which was hot, flat and crowded.

[skaredshtles]

No but when I was living in Indianapolis about 400 years ago Yellow Springs and Clifton Gorge was decent climbing within a couple of hours

For certain values of "decent" amirite??

[californiagrown]

I lol'd. Seriously, Chappelle is really turning into an asshole, or maybe he always was one and used to hide it more effectively.

With developments like this, there are a lot of things going on. I doubt it was as simple as being against affordable housing there.

[up an down]

30 year could break through 4% today or next week. Close now...

And if it does the consequences are???

[leftfield]

Not sure if this is the right thread/forum but i was quite impressed with this article on ski towns RE. https://www.deseret.com/2022/2/7/229...ing-healthcare

Interesting article, thanks- and it's been awhile, hope everything is good with you

[Truckee Joe]

And if it does the consequences are???

Not much. Maybe a slow down of the rate of rise but many people don't get mortgages that much any more. All cash deals is the new norm now from talking to my realestate friends. I know many go back and get a mortgage after they close but you can't complete without cash and quick close these days. Maybe banks will want to lend again. With rates so low there is little incentive for them to lend. All cash is only going to grow as an overall percentage, me thinks.

[liv2ski]

With rates so low there is little incentive for them to lend.

What an odd comment, you need to know 99% of the home loans originated are not a portfolio loan (funded by and serviced by the lender) rather the loans are pooled and sold off to investors with maybe the servicing rights retained, but that is about it. Lenders don't give a fuck what the rates are as the yield has nothing to do with their comp for the most part.

[Falcon3]

Awesome. My little corner of the West finally catching up to everywhere else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/b...ve-cities.html

“In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?”

Most striking point in the article is this: “ Five years ago, a little over half the homes in the Spokane area sold for less than $200,000, and about 70 percent of its employed population could afford to buy a home….. Now fewer than 5 percent of homes — a few dozen a month — sell for less than $200,000, and less than 15 percent of the area’s employed population can afford a home.”



From 70% affordability to 15% in five years. That’s a rapid change and I’m not stoked to experience the social consequences of that.

[liv2ski]

It sucks, but how to fix that? When we bought our first home the sale price was double our combined annual gross income, so people could afford a home. Shit, now the average $700k price in San Diego has to be at least 7 times most couples combined gross. People need to earn way more to catch up to higher prices.

[Benny Profane]

Awesome. My little corner of the West finally catching up to everywhere else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/b...ve-cities.html

“In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?”

Most striking point in the article is this: “ Five years ago, a little over half the homes in the Spokane area sold for less than $200,000, and about 70 percent of its employed population could afford to buy a home….. Now fewer than 5 percent of homes — a few dozen a month — sell for less than $200,000, and less than 15 percent of the area’s employed population can afford a home.”



From 70% affordability to 15% in five years. That’s a rapid change and I’m not stoked to experience the social consequences of that.

X

[Benny Profane]

You wonder how the student loan interest and payment moratorium is affecting the market.
https://www.cnbc.com/select/presiden...s-until-may-1/
That is a ton of money that has been sloshing around in the economy for two years.
I always thought that it would be the easiest way to stimulate the economy, by either outright forgiveness, or, even partial. It's over a 1.5 trillion debt market.

[TAFKALVS]

I don't think it has a major effect. I think its all the money sloshing around in the stock market.

[Benny Profane]

There's always been a lot of money in the stock market. But, why, in the last few years, would it just move over to RE, even lowly Spokane, as mentioned above?

[Mustonen]

What an odd comment, you need to know 99% of the home loans originated are not a portfolio loan (funded by and serviced by the lender) rather the loans are pooled and sold off to investors with maybe the servicing rights retained, but that is about it. Lenders don't give a fuck what the rates are as the yield has nothing to do with their comp for the most part.

With rates so low, there isn’t any yield anywhere else. If anything, it creates an incentive to find ways to portfolio a few more of them. Everybody is over-liquid and desperate for spread somewhere. The specter of mild negative spreads on a few loans in a couple years seems distant and net spread income over WAL should still be better than the alternative.

[yeahman]

Awesome. My little corner of the West finally catching up to everywhere else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/b...ve-cities.html

“In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?”

Most striking point in the article is this: “ Five years ago, a little over half the homes in the Spokane area sold for less than $200,000, and about 70 percent of its employed population could afford to buy a home….. Now fewer than 5 percent of homes — a few dozen a month — sell for less than $200,000, and less than 15 percent of the area’s employed population can afford a home.”



From 70% affordability to 15% in five years. That’s a rapid change and I’m not stoked to experience the social consequences of that.

The consequence is going to be a horrific crash. There is no other way for this inequity to resolve itself.