Real Estate Crash thread

[glademaster]

The problem for local renters is that the portion of rent going to cover property taxes is probably a full month on average in CO. That cost is directly passed on.

The problem for local owners is that their property taxes have probably about doubled in 5 years around here as a combo between every proposed tax getting approved, repealing Gallagher, and increasing valuations.

If you like where you live and you only own one property and you live in it, then valuations going up doesn't help you with anything... just hits you for taxes... and employers sure as heck haven't offered COL raises that match.

Tricky CO legislature offering to cut SFH taxes a whopping 3%... also known as pissing in a hurricane. Thanks guys! Oh and it is written to preemptively prevent any ballot initiatives from cutting SFH property taxes.
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/04/color...-tax-cut-bill/

Property taxes in Colorado are astoundingly low. I believe they're among the lowest in the nation. If anything, we should be paying more in property taxes here, and there are a whole lot of properties that should have six-figure annual property tax bills.

[RoooR]

It just read like you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

I thought the point being made was that STRs not partly occupied by full time residents has contributed to the problem by virtue of not being regulated at all, not over regulation. That's the issue with the ID law that prevents Ketchum from enforcing STR limits in neighborhoods zoned SFR.

I loved Mazola in the 70s, still have friends in their little shack up Rattlesnake by Greenough.

Why is the neighborhood zoned SFR in the first place? Let some 4 and 6 flats in there.

[summit]

Property taxes in Colorado are astoundingly low. I believe they're among the lowest in the nation. If anything, we should be paying more in property taxes here, and there are a whole lot of properties that should have six-figure annual property tax bills.

Do you even have any reasoning to back up why we should be paying more? So we can be like all the unaffordable states that people leave to move here? #don'tNYCmyCObro

Maybe we should be addressing problems of unattainable and unsustainable home ownership instead of saying "let's be like Chicago."

Perhaps non-primary residences with STR permits should pay higher rates while primary residences should be protected from insane valuation increases.

[Conundrum]

while primary residences should be protected from insane valuation increases.

You don't have to heed my warning but I recommend not going down this road in this thread.

[dunfree]

Why is the neighborhood zoned SFR in the first place? Let some 4 and 6 flats in there.

so they could sell the homes in the first place.

single family homes here, boarding homes there, apartments over there.

[dan_pdx]

No. Aspen is WAAAAY nicer.

I don't see what all the fuss is about. Plenty of housing for sale. Sure, some of it is a few million bucks. But just get a collection of homeless teachers, fire fighters, police, restaurant and hotel workers together and buy something.

That link has a $19M, 15k square foot house with 4 bedrooms

[fastfred]

my property taxes have double in 20 years cause every feel good tax increase for recycling and every other bullshit thing gets passed
plus the valuation of the property keeps going up and up

it's still low compared to most places but at some point we will start to catch up to them they tax me so they can build community gardens for people to pretend they live at a low elevation where things actuall grow

the local gov't had a chance to deal with the STR problem 15 to 10 years ago but they just kicked the can down the road thinking it would all work out and so many people were making so much money they didn't want to rock the boat

now they are lableing it a CRISIS in summit cunty, its a joke like they never saw this coming????

[liv2ski]

You don't have to heed my warning but I recommend not going down this road in this thread.

Popcorn is popping

[summit]

I’ll make sure only I drive my car to cut traffic from Uber if you pay me $100

That's horribly inapt comparison. "I'll give you a $500 tax rebate for having your property occupied by a local worker instead of STRing... or LTRing to a bay area remote tech worker." There is community benefit there if the local government believes money should be spent to increase housing availability to the local workforce.

If you get a $100 vehicle registration rebate to NOT use your car for ride-share, how does that help the community?

[dunfree]

That's horribly inapt comparison. "I'll give you a $500 tax rebate for having your property occupied by a local worker instead of STRing... or LTRing to a bay area remote tech worker." There is community benefit there if the local government believes money should be spent to increase housing availability to the local workforce.

If you get a $100 vehicle registration rebate to NOT use your car for ride-share, how does that help the community?

because it’s not one of the “rideshares” on the road adding to traffic?

You aren’t arguing the problem you are dickering in the mechanism to reduce it, in your case having str property owners subsidize non str property owners.

and it’d take a couple hundred bucks and an hour or two with a lawyer for that “Bay Area remote worker” to become a “local business owner” who doesn’t make much money locally , but is a local

[Benny Profane]

Do you even have any reasoning to back up why we should be paying more? So we can be like all the unaffordable states that people leave to move here? #don'tNYCmyCObro

Our waitresses and teachers and service industry workers don't HAVE TO LIVE IN TENTS. The children who are educated in the public school systems here go off to be admitted to some of the best universities in the country. Our police forces are well paid, professionally trained and much less corrupt than in so many places in third world and resort America. Our roads are regularly paved very well (road biker here, it's my summer powder). We have an extensive public transit system that radiates for miles and miles in every direction from Penn Station and Grand Central, and, sorry Jersey Transit, you suck, but, the rest is clean, well maintained and moves on a decent schedule.

If you don't want to pay for basic 21st century services that will keep our head above water compared to Asia, then stop bitching about taxes, or look the other way when all you have is a Walmart at the end of a potholed road and anybody who isn't a meth head or a felon or a junkie desperately wants to work there, because there ain't shit otherwise.

[Skidog]

Our waitresses and teachers and service industry workers don't HAVE TO LIVE IN TENTS. The children who are educated in the public school systems here go off to be admitted to some of the best universities in the country. Our police forces are well paid, professionally trained and much less corrupt than in so many places in third world and resort America. Our roads are regularly paved very well (road biker here, it's my summer powder). We have an extensive public transit system that radiates for miles and miles in every direction from Penn Station and Grand Central, and, sorry Jersey Transit, you suck, but, the rest is clean, well maintained and moves on a decent schedule.

If you don't want to pay for basic 21st century services that will keep our head above water compared to Asia, then stop bitching about taxes, or look the other way when all you have is a Walmart at the end of a potholed road and anybody who isn't a meth head or a felon or a junkie desperately wants to work there, because there ain't shit otherwise.

We bought "cheap" in 2019, foreclosure. Paid cash for renovations (about $90k). Total in $300k. Probably worth closer to $400k in current market. Mortgaged after Reno at $225k. Make low low low 6 figures (like just), 2 kids (13 and 9), 1 car payment (sub $300/mo), and a non working wife.

I will admit I suck at spending, I don't budget well. Smoke weed so that's an added expense. What I've noticed is the increase in literally everything. It's getting very hard to make it work with only my salary. It shouldn't be. I don't know how anyone making less that 6 figures, even combined can do it. I still consider myself living paycheck to paycheck. I have a retirement fund and 529s for the kids, but monthly spending is still tight each and every month.


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[old_newguy]

We bought "cheap" in 2019, foreclosure. Paid cash for renovations (about $90k). Total in $300k. Probably worth closer to $400k in current market. Mortgaged after Reno at $225k. Make low low low 6 figures (like just), 2 kids (13 and 9), 1 car payment (sub $300/mo), and a non working wife.

I will admit I suck at spending, I don't budget well. Smoke weed so that's an added expense. What I've noticed is the increase in literally everything. It's getting very hard to make it work with only my salary. It shouldn't be. I don't know how anyone making less that 6 figures, even combined can do it. I still consider myself living paycheck to paycheck. I have a retirement fund and 529s for the kids, but monthly spending is still tight each and every month.


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It’s called capitalism. It appears a whole bunch of people are suddenly realizing they won’t always be on the “winning” or “comfortable” side of it. Those still on the winning side appear to not give a single fuck that more and more people are getting screwed.

[liv2ski]

Yup, making $100k isn't what it was 30 years ago. Now you need closer to $200k. And progress marches on.

[alpinevibes]

60 mile one way commutes suck, but they suck less than "owning" a deed restricted home, or having the roof over your head be tied directly to your employment status.

Imagine losing your (working/middle class [real middle class, not you fucking assholes here who claim to be middle class but are prime guillotine fodder]) job in a place like Ketchum or Aspen, and at the same time being told you have 30 or 60 days to GTFO of your house and find somewhere else to live. That's the reality of a lot of affordable housing, even affordable housing you "buy." That's almost as fucked up as telling people to live in tents.

I have no solutions. I resigned myself to commuting 120 miles each day, because I want an SFR, and I don't want to pay $400+ in HOA dues. I'll sell the place in a year or two or three and move on to a different spot, where I can hopefully have a shorter commute.

I don't want to cunt up this thread with more drift about the realities of affordable housing, but your statement on deed restricted housing and assumption that someone here, maybe me???, qualifies as "you fucking assholes here who claim to be middle class but are prime guillotine fodder," just didn't sit right. So here's my response to your usual internet hot take - salty, as I've been sleeping poorly:

I'm confused on how deed restricted housing is worse than commuting? Do you enjoy the time on the Frying Pan and 82? Because I enjoy the upsides of owning deed restricted and have no problem owning, abiding and accepting the realities and/or potential downsides of the system:

- I'm paying an affordable monthly rate: $800/mo mortgage for a new-in-2014, Leed gold, 1100sqft condo, in aspen.
- I'm building equity and getting an essentially-guaranteed 3% gain each year vs the legit sunk cost of resort town rental costs (my only other financial option)
- I have secured housing vs a privately held rental that I could potenially lose at any time.
- I have HOA dues that are $400 vs your $200/mo, but I would no-doubt be paying/saving that $200 difference for additional insurance/utilities/repairs if I owned a free market SFH.
- I can bus or drive, in under 10min, to both my families' employers, both ski areas, grocery and restaurants and can ride from my house to all the trails I enjoy during the summer.

vs.

- You own your place outright, no one can kick you out for any reason
- You have greater control/freedom/peace in a rural home with space vs my condo in a dense neighborhood
- You can hopefully gain 5-10% per year, hopefully, for your/your parent's investment, in the coming years to get more nut for your bigger house/next mountain town to move to?
- You can hopefully stay above board with any upgrades, repairs, inflation, and the $24/day cost of SUV gas (4runner, right?) for your desire to be away from people/covid/fake middle class people?
- You can hopefully find the time, willingness and motivation to drive 120mi r/t into town on the weekends to ski at the resort, ride the trails, etc

I'm not interested in spending my time in a car to gain some coin in life. I'd rather live a bit smaller, get by a bit cheaper but live close to the things I love and have great access to them. /rant

[John_B]

Well said alpinevibes. My wife volunteers for the local housing trust and they have had a ton of interest in their deed restricted homes. Unlike for alpinevibes they are SFHs rather than condos but in tight density. In our housing trust there is no loss of home with loss of employment unless the owner can no longer make mortgage payments.

[glademaster]

I support the existence of affordable housing options (both rentals and deed-restricted), and think they can be an enormous asset to communities. It just isn't a situation I want to live in personally. I'm glad the option exists for people who find it to be a good fit.

[RootSkier]

Why is the neighborhood zoned SFR in the first place?

Racism. Duh.

[altasnob]

Deed restricted housing sounds better than nothing. But if any of these communities were serious about trying to provide more affordable housing they would significantly increase their density. And like rent control in San Franciso, deed restricted housing sounds like it can easily be manipulated. Bill Gate's kid could qualify for deed restricted housing, so long as his trust was set up correctly. It is also a lottery, with random winners and losers. My wife's cousin is a tech entrepreneur in San Francisco who eons ago scored a rent controlled apartment. Fast forward today and his company is about to go public and he is still sitting in that rent controlled apartment, refusing to move because it is just too good of a deal. Appears the same in Aspen where if you qualify for deed restricted housing on day 1, and then your income goes up significantly or hit the inheritance jackpot, you can still stay in your below market housing.

[Skidog]

Yup, making $100k isn't what it was 30 years ago. Now you need closer to $200k. And progress marches on.

We make our "choices"..I'm lucky enough to not have to commute at this point and been so for about 10 years now. Still makes me stress. Obviously many more worse off than me, but the pinch is real for some of us. The last year things have just gone crazy in more ways than one can count.

I guess I've resigned myself to working into my 70s. I hope my parents spend every cent they earned and leave me nothing, but I suspect some money will come my way one day soon. Firmly lower middle class. My parents earned their way to upper middle, maybe wealthly by some standards, but far from "not a care in the world".

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[Meadow Skipper]

You're telling me the housing market is out of control in Twin Falls and Burley? If that is the case, we are all fucked because I can't think of much of an uglier place to live in the Western US.

Says the guy that seems to live in Tacoma. To be fair, I haven’t been there in a long time, but…

Its all relative.

Yep.

[Meadow Skipper]

Some people don't see the hypocrisy of Idaho Republicans. They are all "small government" creating more state laws so communities can't govern locally.

Republicans are immune to the concepts of hypocrisy and irony.

Sorry. /polyass

[altasnob]

Says the guy that seems to live in Tacoma. To be fair, I haven’t been there in a long time, but…

Tacoma is basically the hottest housing market in the US. Unfortunately, people finally decided to get off the freeway and have a look around. Per redfin, "in May 2021, Tacoma home prices were up 29.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $450K. On average, homes in Tacoma sell after 5 days on the market."

[Meadow Skipper]

Tacoma is basically the hottest housing market in the US.

That makes it pretty?

[Yonder_River]

Right now the average tourist in town is fat and from the midwest I wouldn't call them rich

short terms are evil

Mortgages are for low class

Benny is fat cause too many edibles and two dollar wine

Glade needs therapy

Sprinter Van's symbolize wealth and excess of the mtn west people hate sprinter van people

You shoulda got to the mtns 25 years ago sorry you missed the boat on a paid off million dollar home in a ski town

I got so baked this morning I went the wrong job and forgot what I was doing till the dog set me straight

Did I miss anything on this monday review if the real estate crash that will never come






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Holy shit man, good thing you live in a ski town that people will throw money at you despite your toasted brain.