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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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05-25-2021, 11:46 AM #14226
Funny. Wife and I were just discussing this very article last night. Lot of truth to it.
While it's absolutely true that many young people entering the housing market have crazy expectations as seen on shows like House Hunters, "I really wanted granite counter tops," "I really wanted stainless steel appliances." It's ALSO true that many home builders simply aren't building "starter homes" much any more. I read some stat that so-called starter homes only account for about 10% of new construction, being that there is SO much more profitability in higher end luxury builds, which are selling like hotcakes, so why not? Around here, I'm only seeing "starter homes" being built in seedier parts of town and even then they seem out of reach for many. ANOTHER problem is that home flipping and real estate investors have gotten so out of control, that even smaller homes in dumpier parts of town have gotten snatched up, reno'd and sold at much higher costs. I mean you have to buy a REAL dump to get something "affordable" in most cities these days.
So, yes. It's 100% true that many young folks have crazy expectations, but for the ones that don't, they're kind of getting screwed over all the same. Rent game ain't fun these days either.
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05-25-2021, 11:49 AM #14227______
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It’s called “missing middle housing” and it’s a huge problem.
Lots of people would buy homes constructed to a lower price point but builders are not building them.
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05-25-2021, 12:03 PM #14228
Precisely. When I bought my first home, affordable homes were in ample supply. I ended up having a new one built. Dirt cheap compared to today. The RE game has completely changed and it really isn't fair to millennials IMO.
I don't know what the answer is, BUT I can clearly see that most governmental attempts at "affordable housing" have been kind of a joke. Perhaps simply cutting red tape or fast tracking permitting for builders willing to build "starter home" developments? I don't know.
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05-25-2021, 12:08 PM #14229
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05-25-2021, 12:11 PM #14230
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05-25-2021, 12:15 PM #14231
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05-25-2021, 12:20 PM #14232
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05-25-2021, 12:20 PM #14233Registered User
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Builders are good at maximizing returns. Close in lots now are so expensive that you have to build a McMansion or you're just leaving money on the table: why build a $500k house when you can bump up the footage and add granite and have a $900k house? Portland now allows four homes to be built on most lots, but I haven't really seen anyone do that. Seems like it's easier to build one house and sell it for $900k or maybe two $600k townhouses than to build a 4-plex and sell the units for $350k each or whatever.
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05-25-2021, 12:28 PM #14234Registered User
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duno about down thar but up here you got 5 banks loaning money and they only want to do loans on a house that will be easy to flog in the event of a foreclosure
so many sq' of building on so many sq' of lot makes a new home will be too big/ cost too much but thats the formula
it might be different if you arent borrowing most of the money
I got 2 carriage lane way homes going up within a block of me right, its definatley a thing around hereLee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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05-25-2021, 12:51 PM #14235
When I was dabbling in the RE dev biz, the only project we ever lost money on was when we (stupidly) assumed that anyone wanted a starter home. The cost per sq ft to build a 1200' house cannot be brought in line with the cost to build 2400'. Too many fixed/non-liner outlays.
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05-25-2021, 12:57 PM #14236
^^
Especially with the cost of lumber these days? Sheesh. Fuggetaboutit.
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05-25-2021, 01:00 PM #14237Registered User
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I've got pretty good at giving myself blow jobs these days
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05-25-2021, 01:01 PM #14238
I did a bit of consulting for our local housing authority as a representative of our building association. I explained that the three biggest drivers of cost are square footage, architectural complexity, and interior finishes. It was then explained to me that nobody wants to live is a small box with linoleum flooring, formica counter tops and one piece fiberglass shower surrounds.
I've seen 2500sq. ft. houses last are supposed to be modest go $75K over budget just on interiors finishes and have Chet and Buffy go running to Mom and Dad because it won't appraise for what they spent.
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05-25-2021, 01:03 PM #14239
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05-25-2021, 01:16 PM #14240
Another interesting trend is divorced parents that both live in houses big enough for the family and then you throw the boy friend/girl friend on top of that with the half time blended family and you have a lot of squarefootage per person.
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05-25-2021, 01:21 PM #14241Registered User
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Are the younger folk more interested in less house ?
I am living in 1000sq' of house with engineered floor/ lino/ formica/ aluminium siding ... Oh the humanity !
OTOH I havent had a job in 16yrsLee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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05-25-2021, 01:24 PM #14242
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05-25-2021, 01:28 PM #14243
Someone should start a website called Practicalgram then.
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05-25-2021, 01:42 PM #14244
Yes. Just gotta ignore the people on HGTV and all the kids bragging it up on Instagram/FB/whatever. My house has original 90s laminate counter tops and stuff. It's fine. Haha.
To steal some hilarious comments from YouTube making fun of the buyers on House Hunters with seemingly absurd budgets for their stations in life:
"He’s a stay at home astronaut and she picks dandelions for a living."
"I just graduated from college with a bachelor's degree in social work last month. My wife works from home hand-making mittens for dogs. We are both 22 years old. Our budget is $1.7 M."
"I teach gymnastics to butterflies, and my husband sharpens crayons for a living; our budget is 1.6 billion."
"I pick lint out strangers pockets on the subway and my wife makes candles out of free-range bees wax. Our budget is $9 billion dollars"
"I volunteer at a Non-profit"; "And I'm a stay at home mom" "Our Budget is $1.5 Million Dollars"
"Him: I'm a stay at home husband; Her: I massage butterfly wings and our budget is $1.7 million"
Seriously, though. WTF is up with the young couples on that show? Either there's some crazy trust fund action going on, or the show is fake AF. Probably a little bit of both.
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05-25-2021, 01:52 PM #14245
I always thought HGTV was in on the joke and deliberately picked couples that have absurd job titles and a strong backing from their family money. You also can't be on the show unless you are under contract, so its all fake outside of the one house they buy.
My entire social circle is filled with people complaining about high housing costs but they won't entertain anything less than 3 bed/ 2 baths with upgraded appliances, multi car garages (one friend actually says things like "what is the point of a 1 car garage" in all seriousness). I feel for them that they are now trying to play catchup as the market outpaces their salary/savings growth, but kinda don't feel for them as they waited for perfection when good was available 5 years ago.
Then the county is trying to ram through 5 acre minimum lots sizes and other such zoning issues, led by our NIMBY in chief Cindy Reigel (who I actually really like outside of her zealousness to wall off Teton Valley to any form of growth). 5 acres is a minimum 200k lot here on the sunny side of the Tetons. That combined with 400 a square cost to build and my 1320 sq ft house is 800k+ cost to build. The county commission knows exactly what they are doing when they mandate lot sizes that large. I find it interesting the anecdotes from Portland, etc that allowing multiple units in formerly single family lots hasn't really moved the needle though. I would have thought there would be at least some benefit there.Live Free or Die
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05-25-2021, 01:57 PM #14246
Yep, most people I know are more interested in location than square footage, but given that many have to now accommodate the following:
1. Kids - can only minimize so much for sanity's sake
2. Home office/multipurpose - many of our jobs expect us to work from home if the office is closed, so you need at least one additional space to accommodate.
Also, anyone with half a brain selling a home will upgrade easy finish stuff to net out more money. Plus the only way "starter" homes get built is if the local affordable housing groups are building them. Builders aren't dumb and build for luxury. Starter homes are older homes that haven't been kept up. Given that people already in an urbanizing area generally want to keep the yards and space they have, there isn't much densification happening either, so those who are fine with less space aren't getting what they need either. Only one town in my area has the stones to build large, semi-affordable apartment buildings that aren't 100% luxified. Even then they got a ton of flack from people in the town.
Any article that hinges around "here's the real problem - millenial attitudes towards X" I know is just boomer wank material and largely not based in fact. In good school districts (since the millenials delayed having kids because shit was dicey and they wanted to get established in careers), good luck finding ANY house. Size and other factors aren't even in the conversation.
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05-25-2021, 01:58 PM #14247User
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I have formica countertops in the kitchen. I am ashamed.
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05-25-2021, 02:00 PM #14248
I have stainless steel countertops. Cheaper than vinyl and more functional than anything else on the market, and it ticks the HGTV modern kitchen vibe box. I will seriously never have anything else and highly recommend.
Live Free or Die
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05-25-2021, 02:09 PM #14249
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05-25-2021, 02:13 PM #14250Registered User
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Same! We replaced formica that had been used as a cutting board for decades with stainless + integrated stainless sink. Not cheaper than formica, but should last forever.
Re: starter homes, I'm aware of one developer in Portland who's building new houses at a lower price point. He explicitly has a social mission to offer more accessible housing, seems like all the other developers are 100% focused on the bottom line.
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