Real Estate Crash thread

[skiballs]

^did you help with the sanding?


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[ötzi]

Nah it looked good though

[neufox47]

im skeptical of the half a mil appraisal on a 1/2 remodeled house

The sponsor can’t be too thrilled with that performance.

[dunfree]

But the type of jobs in the Central Valley (like growing cauliflower in February) can't easily be relocated to Bozeman.

illegal immigrants don’t buy $500k homes

[altasnob]

What I meant by that comment is places with industries like farming probably won't see much population change going forward. Maybe a little as ag gets even more industrialized. The Central Valley is one of the most productive ag zones on earth.

[altasnob]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

All my wife's childhood friends work for big tech, as does their spouses. The combined income of the couples is over $400k. Yet all complain about not being able to afford to buy and they all are still renting. When they visit Seattle they are blown away by the affordability (ya, Seattle). Some have moved here. The ones who haven't is normally because they want to remain close to their family in the Bay (and they are soft Californians who can't handle the crappy weather). If techies can't afford the $1.6 million median homes, who the fuck can? Teachers, prosecutors, public defenders in San Francisco probably make $150k a year. That sounds like a lot but you can't buy shit in the Bay on that. And these are professionals with fancy degrees. What about the rest of society? How does this continue? I've been waiting and waiting for it to collapse but it hasn't happened.

[m2711c]

ya gotta make more than $117,000 a year in san fran just to get out of the “low income” bracket....


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/28/...francisco.html

[Toadman]

illegal immigrants don’t buy $500k homes

Funny story. The in-laws sold their house in NYC (Queens) about 12 years ago. It was an extra size lot. A builder offered my FIL just over a mil in cash, that he had in a large paper bag. That deal didn't go down.

Ended up selling the house to a developer who tore it down and put up two monstrosities. The next door neighbor used to joke about the folks from Columbia that moved into one of the houses. He would swear the neighbors were Columbian drug dealers with all the late night comings and goings. He actually joked about it one Thanksgiving.

Fast forward a year, and there's about a dozen law enforcement vehicles surrounding the house. Turns out the Columbian neighbors were drug dealers. They had paid cash for the house, just over $1 million.

I don't know if they were illegal immigrants though. Might have been legit H1B working in the pharma industry.

[Toadman]

ya gotta make more than $117,000 a year in san fran just to get out of the “low income” bracket....


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/28/...francisco.html

I always joke with the wife, that there's no way I could move to NYC if we both weren't making $250k...after taxes. (Not to mention I would need more than 6 weeks PTO) Even then, that would be rough. We have friends making in the $400k range back there, and they don't live in anything all that nice.

You really have to want that big city lifestyle to put up with the high cost of living. And how little your money buys for residential RE.

[liv2ski]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

When people talk about how high taxes are in CA, I laugh. My prop 13 property tax rate saves me about $20k a year in taxes I would be paying in other states and almost $40k compared to a high property tax state like TX. My state taxes don't add up to that much so I am ahead of the game for sure.

There are parties that rail against Prop 13 and it will be interesting to see if the Prop 15 bill passes that raises taxes on commercial/industrial properties that presently have a Prop 13 tax base. If prop 15 passes, then down the road Prop 13 may be repealed and then lots of people will say fuck it and sell.

[sirbumpsalot]

When people talk about how high taxes are in CA, I laugh. My prop 13 property tax rate saves me about $20k a year in taxes I would be paying in other states and almost $40k compared to a high property tax state like TX. My state taxes don't add up to that much so I am ahead of the game for sure.

There are parties that rail against Prop 13 and it will be interesting to see if the Prop 15 bill passes that raises taxes on commercial/industrial properties that presently have a Prop 13 tax base. If prop 15 passes, then down the road Prop 13 may be repealed and then lots of people will say fuck it and sell.

I have a very close friend that did a "family" passing of a home from his grandmother many years ago for $800K and then he remodelled and expanded the sqft space. Worth ~$1.5M in Santa Barbara now and he pays ~$1500 a year in property taxes because of the special rules involved. Has 2 kids in school. Certainly he isn't paying "his share" of his communities costs. I am all for paying as little in taxes as you can, but this shows how the system can be gamed and no longer serves to keep a bunch of old widows from losing their houses to the tax man. Prop 13 is ripe for reform for sure.

[RoooR]

illegal immigrants don’t buy $500k homes

There are a TON of undocumented immigrants living in nice houses. Even many of the farm workers own businesses back home. Others own businesses here. Restaurants, landscaping, contracting, etc. The dude that fixed my porch lives in a $750k house on the golf-course and his daughter is in med school.

[Kevo]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

All my wife's childhood friends work for big tech, as does their spouses. The combined income of the couples is over $400k. Yet all complain about not being able to afford to buy and they all are still renting. When they visit Seattle they are blown away by the affordability (ya, Seattle). Some have moved here. The ones who haven't is normally because they want to remain close to their family in the Bay (and they are soft Californians who can't handle the crappy weather). If techies can't afford the $1.6 million median homes, who the fuck can? Teachers, prosecutors, public defenders in San Francisco probably make $150k a year. That sounds like a lot but you can't buy shit in the Bay on that. And these are professionals with fancy degrees. What about the rest of society? How does this continue? I've been waiting and waiting for it to collapse but it hasn't happened.

$200k per person is pretty middle of the road early to mid career compensation for SF Bay area tech employees.

There are plenty of people making 2x or 3x or more than that working for FAANG companies in the Bay Area. Also, add in moonshot IPOs minting thousands of 7 and 8 figure payouts per year in the Bay Area.

[4matic]

I have a very close friend that did a "family" passing of a home from his grandmother many years ago for $800K and then he remodelled and expanded the sqft space. Worth ~$1.5M in Santa Barbara now and he pays ~$1500 a year in property taxes because of the special rules involved. Has 2 kids in school. Certainly he isn't paying "his share" of his communities costs. I am all for paying as little in taxes as you can, but this shows how the system can be gamed and no longer serves to keep a bunch of old widows from losing their houses to the tax man. Prop 13 is ripe for reform for sure.

When people talk about how high taxes are in CA, I laugh. My prop 13 property tax rate saves me about $20k a year in taxes I would be paying in other states and almost $40k compared to a high property tax state like TX. My state taxes don't add up to that much so I am ahead of the game for sure.

There are parties that rail against Prop 13 and it will be interesting to see if the Prop 15 bill passes that raises taxes on commercial/industrial properties that presently have a Prop 13 tax base. If prop 15 passes, then down the road Prop 13 may be repealed and then lots of people will say fuck it and sell.

Prop 19 changes a couple things. Inherited property used as a rental is assessed to market and tax base transfer 55+ is allowed anywhere up to three times plus it also allows you to transfer your sale value base to any property as a baseline. Whereas, you sell a home for $500k you can transfer that tax base to any home with incremental uplift. Meaning, you can buy a home worth $1mm and the first $500k is the tax base transfer from your sold property. Vote yes on 19!

[The AD]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

To me it seems a little silly that they are sitting on a goldmine, but don't want to sell because their property taxes will go up. The amount they will make by selling the house has got to pay for that property tax increase many, many times over, right?

[4matic]

To me it seems a little silly that they are sitting on a goldmine, but don't want to sell because their property taxes will go up. The amount they will make by selling the house has got to pay for that property tax increase many, many times over, right?

They can currently transfer their tax base anywhere in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara , or Alameda county too. That's a lot of options.

[Gman]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

All my wife's childhood friends work for big tech, as does their spouses. The combined income of the couples is over $400k. Yet all complain about not being able to afford to buy and they all are still renting. When they visit Seattle they are blown away by the affordability (ya, Seattle). Some have moved here. The ones who haven't is normally because they want to remain close to their family in the Bay (and they are soft Californians who can't handle the crappy weather). If techies can't afford the $1.6 million median homes, who the fuck can? Teachers, prosecutors, public defenders in San Francisco probably make $150k a year. That sounds like a lot but you can't buy shit in the Bay on that. And these are professionals with fancy degrees. What about the rest of society? How does this continue? I've been waiting and waiting for it to collapse but it hasn't happened.

Pretty similar boat that my wife and I are in. She is in medicine and I'm in tech sales. Our combined income is substantially lower than 400k and it blows my mind what housing costs here. We moved from the Boston area to be closer to friends but we're now in a spot where we can't afford the childcare costs of having a 2nd kid so we will see if we stick around long term or not. Part of how some people afford it is moonshot ipo's. My buddy works at a company that gives him a 15% discount on company stock so he's done well with that as well. A lot of the mid to senior level people are doing well off their base salary but it's the stock options they are getting that's allowing them to buy 1.5million dollar houses like it's nothing.

[Toadman]

Tip of iceberg?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...180315848.html

The share of homeowners four months behind on their mortgage payments hit a 21-year high in July, according to the latest figures from CoreLogic, a financial data and analytics firm.

The 120-day delinquency rate stood at 1.4%, up from 0.12% in July 2019 and the highest level since CoreLogic started tracking delinquencies in 1999.The rate includes those homeowners who declared forbearance as a result of the CARES Act.

[Bobcat Sig]

Tip of iceberg?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...180315848.html

The share of homeowners four months behind on their mortgage payments hit a 21-year high in July, according to the latest figures from CoreLogic, a financial data and analytics firm.

The 120-day delinquency rate stood at 1.4%, up from 0.12% in July 2019 and the highest level since CoreLogic started tracking delinquencies in 1999.The rate includes those homeowners who declared forbearance as a result of the CARES Act.

Hard to think it's not.

My guess is that some of those people who aren't working or won't working due to the 'rona will be a much louder voice about opening back up and getting back to work once the shit hits the fan...

[4matic]

How many of those delinquent mortgages are rentals? It will be more than a year before the evictions start. A lot can happen.

[leftfield]

Eagle County just set a monthly RE sales record in Aug- 418 million. Old record was 361 million

https://www.vaildaily.com/news/vail-...ord-in-august/

[Toadman]

Eagle County just set a monthly RE sales record in Aug- 418 million. Old record was 361 million

https://www.vaildaily.com/news/vail-...ord-in-august/

Records were meant to be broken.

[altasnob]

To me it seems a little silly that they are sitting on a goldmine, but don't want to sell because their property taxes will go up. The amount they will make by selling the house has got to pay for that property tax increase many, many times over, right?

True, but in laws still work in downtown San Francisco and currently have a walkable, busable easy breezy commute. If they move, they want to stay in San Francisco, or Marin. Neither of those are Prop 13 exempt counties. My point is not whining about their predicament, but to point out how asinine a law Prop 13 was/is (incentive for old people to stay in their giant house in the city). Thank god we don't have that in Washington. And don't even get me started on rent control. Know some tech bros there waiting for their IPO to drop and they will be millionaires sticking it out in their rent controlled apartment.

[4matic]

San Francisco, or Marin. Neither of those are Prop 13 exempt counties.

What does that even mean? Marin is not a Prop 90 county. SF county is a prop 60 county as is every county is Ca.

[altasnob]

I don't know. Just repeating conversation I had with in laws. I will bug him about it next time I see him. He is a tax attorney/accountant. I will try to get details from him.

But again, point of my post is prop 13 was passed to help little old ladies from being priced out of their home, correct? And while that may be true in some situation, it also provides an incentive for people to stay in their homes, correct?