Real Estate Crash thread

[RootSkier]

Growth for the sake of growth is cancer, not everyone can live in downtown Bozeman. Maybe they like a walk able neighborhood without high rise apartments.

You can't have walkable neighborhoods without density. That is sort of the point of cities.

[Skidog]

You can't have walkable neighborhoods without density. That is sort of the point of cities.

I guess that depends on the town. Growing up in NJ quite a bit I lived in Madison, Quaint little town. Full "downtown" scene, shops, eateries, etc. Walkable and quiet.
Shoot over 10 miles and you're in Morristown. Now when I lived there is wasn't "vertical living", but some 18 years later...WOW....everything is straight up, in the "walkable" areas. All of those high rises used to be run down warehouses or failed old stores. All ripped down to build high rise condos. The existing SFH are all still there, and have appreciated greatly. I still kick myself for giving my ex wife and her mother my 2 family 5 min walk from the center of Morristown (10 min to trains to NYC). aid 195K in 1997. worth half a mil right now. I wouldve kept it as a rental. Still waiting for Karma to pay me back on that give...

[Bronco]

Winthrop WA.

Close but commercial airport within 2 hours? Not sure Wenatchee really counts.

[Benny Profane]

Seems the problems that I've seen in Hawaii and California made their way to Montana.

House near me just sold in 9 days for 1.4M. $150K over asking and all cash. If you're just a regular family trying to get a piece then you're basically screwed at this point. Big tech money swooping in and buying.

But, I do have to agree with the other poster that the guy is probably being picky. When I bought my house I bid on almost anything in the area I wanted to live as long as it was livable and not a tear down.

Ok, this is what I'm talking about that the "northeast" is flat to blah. I mean, for fucks sake, people here have good jobs, careers, paying well, and I can think of no place close that is that frenzied. Yeah, "tech money" can result in some inflation, but, c'mon, is everybody in Bozeman a Google employee? No fucking way. Pure zero interest speculation, ala 2004.

[zion zig zag]

You can't have walkable neighborhoods without density. That is sort of the point of cities.

I guess that depends on what you consider walkable and what you need in that walking distance.

[Self Jupiter]

Ok, this is what I'm talking about that the "northeast" is flat to blah. I mean, for fucks sake, people here have good jobs, careers, paying well, and I can think of no place close that is that frenzied. Yeah, "tech money" can result in some inflation, but, c'mon, is everybody in Bozeman a Google employee? No fucking way. Pure zero interest speculation, ala 2004.

Much of Boston / Eastern MA has been having intense bidding wars with homes frequently selling for 5-10%+ above above asking for 4-6+ years. The trend started in the city and eventually moved to the suburbs. COVID cooled the city market but the suburban market is just nuts right now. I can’t find the article that my social media feeds have embedded/hidden from me, but people are lining up 30 minutes ahead of open houses in the dead of winter for 5 minute walk-through windows to look at mediocre homes for ~$650-900k (and a lot more in the toniest / most desirable spots) to enter the bidding war.

The town I grew up in historically capped pricing around $~1.2m. Above that and you’re getting a legacy-style property (huge house huge grounds mega views nice as shit). Overnight during COVID those $~1.2m homes are going for over $1.4 and selling in a weekend vs 6-12 months. Rumor has a lot of buyers being from metro NY area. This is a coastal town 30mi north of Boston.

Southern NH, so ME and the population centers in RI aren’t far behind from what I’m told.

Hearing it’s pretty crazy out in Western MA right now, which was mostly flat post recession. But the majority of the population lives east of 495.

All real estate is local but I’m guessing the places I am talking about here account for most of the population in New England, besides CT, which us massholes don’t consider part of New England in the first place

[Brock Landers]

Much of Boston / Eastern MA has been having intense bidding wars with homes frequently selling for 5-10%+ above above asking for 4-6+ years. The trend started in the city and eventually moved to the suburbs. COVID cooled the city market but the suburban market is just nuts right now. I can’t find the article that my social media feeds have embedded/hidden from me, but people are lining up 30 minutes ahead of open houses in the dead of winter for 5 minute walk-through windows to look at mediocre homes for ~$650-900k (and a lot more in the toniest / most desirable spots) to enter the bidding war.

The town I grew up in historically capped pricing around $~1.2m. Above that and you’re getting a legacy-style property (huge house huge grounds mega views nice as shit). Overnight during COVID those $~1.2m homes are going for over $1.4 and selling in a weekend vs 6-12 months. Rumor has a lot of buyers being from metro NY area. This is a coastal town 30mi north of Boston.

Southern NH, so ME and the population centers in RI aren’t far behind from what I’m told.

Hearing it’s pretty crazy out in Western MA right now, which was mostly flat post recession. But the majority of the population lives east of 495.

All real estate is local but I’m guessing the places I am talking about here account for most of the population in New England, besides CT, which us massholes don’t consider part of New England in the first place

Yep on all of it. Suburban Boston all the way up to Nashua is ridiculous right now w bidding wars etc.

Ps coastal 30 mins north of boston? Gross.

[Benny Profane]

Much of Boston / Eastern MA has been having intense bidding wars with homes frequently selling for 5-10%+ above above asking for 4-6+ years. The trend started in the city and eventually moved to the suburbs. COVID cooled the city market but the suburban market is just nuts right now. I can’t find the article that my social media feeds have embedded/hidden from me, but people are lining up 30 minutes ahead of open houses in the dead of winter for 5 minute walk-through windows to look at mediocre homes for ~$650-900k (and a lot more in the toniest / most desirable spots) to enter the bidding war.

The town I grew up in historically capped pricing around $~1.2m. Above that and you’re getting a legacy-style property (huge house huge grounds mega views nice as shit). Overnight during COVID those $~1.2m homes are going for over $1.4 and selling in a weekend vs 6-12 months. Rumor has a lot of buyers being from metro NY area. This is a coastal town 30mi north of Boston.

Southern NH, so ME and the population centers in RI aren’t far behind from what I’m told.

Hearing it’s pretty crazy out in Western MA right now, which was mostly flat post recession. But the majority of the population lives east of 495.

All real estate is local but I’m guessing the places I am talking about here account for most of the population in New England, besides CT, which us massholes don’t consider part of New England in the first place

Fine. Boston. About a hundred colleges and universities. MIT. Harvard. The well established tech corridor of 128. Major financial firms. You know, money. Business. Well established for literally centuries. I'm not comparing that to Ct., I'm comparing that to fucking Bozeman. What the hell does Bozeman have, compared to Boston that warrants such inflated home values? Where are people getting this money? Not from careers. From banks, for almost free. We've seen this before. Or, I'll mention another horribly overheated market. Boise. What the fuck? French fry money?

This will not end well

[RootSkier]

What the hell does Bozeman have, compared to Boston that warrants such inflated home values?

Immediate access to top-tier outdoor activities is the obvious one. If you could make the same amount of $$$ in either place, where would you rather live, assuming you actually skied?

[Benny Profane]

Immediate access to top-tier outdoor activities is the obvious one. If you could make the same amount of $$$ in either place, where would you rather live, assuming you actually skied?

Moronic response number one.

Yeah, fly fishing and skiing justifies a million dollar fixer upper. Jezuz christ.

Do you actually have a job?

[char_]

Fine. Boston. About a hundred colleges and universities. MIT. Harvard. The well established tech corridor of 128. Major financial firms. You know, money. Business. Well established for literally centuries. I'm not comparing that to Ct., I'm comparing that to fucking Bozeman. What the hell does Bozeman have, compared to Boston that warrants such inflated home values? Where are people getting this money? Not from careers. From banks, for almost free. We've seen this before. Or, I'll mention another horribly overheated market. Boise. What the fuck? French fry money?

This will not end well

Have you heard of work from home? It this new fangled thing all the kids are doing.

[char_]

Moronic response number one.

Yeah, fly fishing and skiing justifies a million dollar fixer upper. Jezuz christ.

Do you actually have a job?

I blame WFH allowing people from higher valued RE markets to move who show up with large salaries relative to local market, distorted ideas about what a house should cost, cheap interest rates and low inventory.

[Benny Profane]

Have you heard of work from home? It this new fangled thing all the kids are doing.

So, you're telling me that justifies the enormous run up in Denver, and, well, Bozeman and many other western small cities that were cooking pre pandemic? And, there's THAT many people making THAT much money working from home, and then THAT many of them moved to places like Bozeman?

[ötzi]

Pendulum's bound to swing back some. Quite a few of these people are gonna wake up one morning in bumfuck when things are back open where they're from and look at each other and say wtf have we done? That and a modest bump in interest rates and it'll be a different world in a hurry.

[Benny Profane]

Pendulum's bound to swing back some. Quite a few of these people are gonna wake up one morning in bumfuck when things are back open where they're from and look at each other and say wtf have we done? That and a modest bump in interest rates and it'll be a different world in a hurry.

Yeah, there will be a moment in the Shop Rite or Price Chopper when they look around and just start crying.

[hatchgreenchile]

And, there's THAT many people making THAT much money working from home, and then THAT many of them moved to places like Bozeman?

No, no no, America is struggling. We need $1500 stimulus checks to keep it together.
I've stopped trying to figure it out. Bizzaro world lately.

[Benny Profane]

No, no no, America is struggling. We need $1500 stimulus checks to keep it together.
I've stopped trying to figure it out. Bizzaro world lately.

Oh boy. "We"? Not the TGR white privelege kiddies. We're doing fine. And that's the problem. The elite, wealthy politicians and media mouthpieces have no concept of what it's like to be part of the at least half of Americans who are now in a depression.

[hatchgreenchile]

Oh boy. "We"? Not the TGR white privelege kiddies. We're doing fine. And that's the problem. The elite, wealthy politicians and media mouthpieces have no concept of what it's like to be part of the at least half of Americans who are now in a depression.

Didn't catch my sarcasm, eh?
Agree on the rest - pretty clear that politically, socially and economically, there are Two Americas.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> And, there's THAT many people making THAT much money working from home, and then THAT many of them moved to places like Bozeman?

Yes.

[Benny Profane]

Yes.

Not so easy. Give me stats. Links. I don't believe it.

[skaredshtles]

Not so easy. Give me stats. Links. I don't believe it.

Do your own homework.

[RoooR]

Not so easy. Give me stats. Links. I don't believe it.

There are 124M HHs in the United States. Let's say HH Income above 150k for these groups.

According to Wikipedia that's about 14M house holds. Bozeman only has about 20k HH. So it really only takes a couple hundred (or less) people deciding to move there to stress out the market. That's a super small % of the nations wealthy.

Anecdotally as an older millennial, almost every single friend of mine from college is now part of a HH with over 200k in income. Some of them have visited me out here and had their minds blown at how hedonistic my life is and briefly pondered moving. But them most of them remember they don't like being outside as much as I do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househ..._United_States

[RootSkier]

Do you actually have a job?

Likely a better one than you've ever had and they* buy me a season pass to the ski area that is < 25 minutes from my office. So yeah.

But go on about how us dumb hicks living in the boonies will be disappointed with our grocery store options in the next few months.


*They = me because I am one of the owners.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Pendulum's bound to swing back some. Quite a few of these people are gonna wake up one morning in bumfuck when things are back open where they're from and look at each other and say wtf have we done? That and a modest bump in interest rates and it'll be a different world in a hurry.

Yeah a 3 hour drive to get bowl of curry is not for everyone. It can't happen soon enough.

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

I don't understand what you want Benny. People want to live here. We have very little housing supply even in a normal year, and almost none right now. That problem is magnified by it being February, where traditionally, people don't sell homes unless they have to in MT. And as RoooR said it takes very few people to spike our market. I don't know where everyone makes their money. Don't really care.

There are articles about Bozeman RE in the NY Times, WaPost, and more from this year. I'm sure you could read them? But what you'll find is basic supply and demand. It's the same story that has blown up RE prices in small, desirable towns across the country for, like, ever.