Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

Pocatello is closer to Targhee.

[liv2ski]

Crazy. Seems like the minimum household income for having a halfway decent standard of living with a family ANYWHERE desirable is now somewhere around $200k.

FIFY

[Toadman]

Ada County (Boise) median household income is $66,293. I don't think you need a household income of 200k to have a halfway decent standard of living there (or maybe 90% of Boise is living in insufferable misery?). And I don't see increased housing costs causing blue collar workers to flee to Pocatello. Maybe push them farther from the urban core, but Boise has attributes that those other communities will never replicate (capital, large university, hospital). Unlike Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco, who are all constrained by water and mountains, Boise has an unlimited amount of buildable land, and a right wing government who embraces sprawl, which will help stabilize prices.

There are always limits to unlimited amounts of land.

[Ridgehippy]

That article sums up the entire mountain west right now. North Idaho is no different. The cost of housing is so out of line with wages that its really starting to not make sense. There can't be that many remote workers. I'm beginning to wonder if its just a big game of "investors" like in this article selling to other "investors".

My panhandle home will probably hit the market in the next week or so. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Expecting retired equity refugees desperate to get into something after already selling where they moved from. Guess we'll see.

[jono]

My panhandle home will probably hit the market in the next week or so. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Expecting retired equity refugees desperate to get into something after already selling where they moved from. Guess we'll see.

Probably. Congrats on the timing, at least!

We keep hoping the wave has crested because my BIL and his wife have been meeting all those people in the offer stacks. A couple years ago he left management in defense to teach school here. Just landed a long term job only to find the market makes their plan to wait and buy after that untenable. Of course, the school levy failed on the first try just to put an exclamation point on the stress of it all.

The combined influx of (more) anti-education and sight unseen/no inspection clause, unaware buyers moving in can't be good.

Did you find the next great place?

[ötzi]

I'd be interested to hear how it goes.

[Benny Profane]

There are always limits to unlimited amounts of land.

Like, ahem, water.

[jono]

Crazy.

Where are all the Boise natives who missed the boat on tech income going to go when they get forced out? Twin Falls? Ontario, OR? Elko? Pocatello?

Fruitland, Payette, Weiser...Emmett? There really is a lot of farm land still waiting to sell out to developers between Caldwell and Parma. Eagle and Meridian were under-populated once. Some of the people jumping in to Star may be surprised to find there really is a reason the market can be so erratic around Boise. Or maybe mint and beets will go artisanal. Who wants to start the next MLM?

[Greenstateofmind]

There’s articles floating around explaining that many industries used the pandemic to retool, automate, etc. For many hotels it sounds like room cleaning will be a request, not the norm; housekeeping is anticipating a huge hit to the work force.

In the short term, restaurants are struggling for work. But as others have said, restaurants will just raise prices and price out the middle class. The rest of us get robo Ronald McDonald flipping your patty.

* meant to quote Stu

[RootSkier]

Ada County (Boise) median household income is $66,293. I don't think you need a household income of 200k to have a halfway decent standard of living there (or maybe 90% of Boise is living in insufferable misery?).

Surviving when you got in when housing was "cheap" is very different than trying to make a go of it now.

I feel incredibly fortunate that we have a house in our preferred hood in Missoula that we paid around $300k for 5 years ago. It needs a major overhaul, but compared to what you can get now, wow.

[Conundrum]

Surviving when you got in when housing was "cheap" is very different than trying to make a go of it now.

I feel incredibly fortunate that we have a house in our preferred hood in Missoula that we paid around $300k for 5 years ago. It needs a major overhaul, but compared to what you can get now, wow.

If you’re in you’re in, in the Treasure Valley. If you’re not in, you’ll be stretching your budget for an hour commute. If you’re lucky.

If you’re cashing equity from somewhere else, you might have to stretch your standards for what you expect from the “help”.

[alpinevibes]

Boise? Bozeman? Butte? No - BILLINGS!

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/mon...ex-11626773400

“Billings, Mont., is the new No. 1 on The Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index, boosted by its affordability and appeal to remote workers.

The index reflects how the housing boom has ignited homebuying activity in smaller to midsize cities around the U.S.”

My FIL grew up in Billings and they sold the family house some years back. He can’t imagine demand like this, but it’s not the worst location with cool stuff in proximity.

[Meadow Skipper]

Also an unpopular opinion, even as a breeder, I wish that childless people could opt out of paying school taxes, but I digress. ^_^

Because childless people don’t benefit from an educated population?

[MontuckyFried]

Boise? Bozeman? Butte? No - BILLINGS!

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/mon...ex-11626773400

“Billings, Mont., is the new No. 1 on The Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index, boosted by its affordability and appeal to remote workers.

The index reflects how the housing boom has ignited homebuying activity in smaller to midsize cities around the U.S.”

My FIL grew up in Billings and they sold the family house some years back. He can’t imagine demand like this, but it’s not the worst location with cool stuff in proximity.

Lol. I just spent the last few weeks there in B town. That could very well be true on the low-mid end, but the higher end is kinda sitting stagnant. A friend's neighbor has a big ass house in a super nice neighborhood that's been for sale for like a year and like no nibbles. Price didn't seem too bad either for the size and area, so not sure if things are cooling off or it's just a different market segment. "Entry" level home prices are absurd though, but that's kinda true for everywhere now. My takeaway is that you can still get a really nice home for a decent price if you're shopping the upper end, but in MY price range, forget it. Not worth it. And contrary to popular opinion, I actually like that town. Used to own a nice home there in a sweet location that now I could no longer afford to buy back. Doh!!!

[Deebased]

The last few pages are blowing my mind. $3k to $4k for monthly child care Fuck me. Can't cover housing expenses on $75k a year

May as well rent a larger house and get an aupair.

[MontuckyFried]

Because childless people don’t benefit from an educated population?

Yo. I'm actually not saying my opinion is correct on this one as it's kinduva nuanced topic and I DO see the value in it. More of a 'wish' actually. Just that it'd be sweet if your tax burden could be proportionately reduced if you chose not to multiply. Call it a 'carbon credit' for choosing not to further eff over the planet with your spawn. How about that?

[AdironRider]

Crazy.

Where are all the Boise natives who missed the boat on tech income going to go when they get forced out? Twin Falls? Ontario, OR? Elko? Pocatello?

Five years ago it was possible to support a family as a blue collar worker in Boise. Seems like the minimum household income for having a halfway decent standard of living with a family in Boise is now somewhere around $200k.

I doubt you really meant to come off as the stereotypical tech transplant but seriously, 200K is still good living anywhere.

[yeahman]

Yo. I'm actually not saying my opinion is correct on this one as it's kinduva nuanced topic and I DO see the value in it. More of a 'wish' actually. Just that it'd be sweet if your tax burden could be proportionately reduced if you chose not to multiply. Call it a 'carbon credit' for choosing not to further eff over the planet with your spawn. How about that?

Or perhaps your tax burden should be increased if you don't have kids, since you're not producing any future workers to help support the aging population.

[MontuckyFried]

Or perhaps your tax burden should be increased if you don't have kids, since you're not producing any future workers to help support the aging population.

Yeah. I get that argument too. See: Japan

However, I keep hearing from one side of the aisle how our planet's overpopulated and we're screwed, but then we're ALSO told we need to keep populations up for what you said among other reasons. Which is it?! No need to answer that. I'm actually just being a bit facetious here. Since I've been cross-country countless times, I can confirm that the US is FAR from over-populated. Haha. We're fine.

[summit]

Breckenridge, Vail and Steamboat have placed or are considering STR moratoriums on new licenses unless the property is specifically built for STR (has a front desk, property mgr, is a time share, etc). Will it work to get owners to convert STRs to LTRs?

Let's look at the type of second home owners:

A type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
"I use that unit intermittently, so I am never long terming. So I'll use it more often like I did during the pandemic, and I'll spend less and you'll have less town revenue."

B type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
"I bought the place to use for myself, but I need the STR income to afford it, so I'll just sell the unit to" A type above.

C type of owner will not convert to LTR: INVESTOR
"Well, I bought it to STR, so I might as well sell at peak prices to" A type above.

D type of owner who WILL convert to LTR: INVESTOR
"I was looking for that 10% STR net annual return. I guess I'll just take a 0-3% annual net to rent to a local instead of selling the place because maybe I want the investment/future primary."

And here are the reactions of local owners:
E type of owner who will not convert to LTR:
"I live here full time and I don't want a full time roommate, but it was going to be nice having a little extra income from occasional STRing the extra bedroom... dang... less money to spend in the community."

F type of owner who WILL convert to LTR or who will NOT purchase property or WILL purchase a smaller place:
"I live here full time and I was going to make the mortgage by STRing the extra bedroom a few peak weekends a year, but now I guess I will have to have a roommate or buy a smaller place that cannot fit my future family."

I think you harm a lot of people, cut out a ton of revenue, and end up creating very few additional LTRs. It might lower real estate prices some in the long term but there would be a lot of sales short term as people downsize. As usual, the RE industry wins.

[Meadow Skipper]

Yo. I'm actually not saying my opinion is correct on this one as it's kinduva nuanced topic and I DO see the value in it. More of a 'wish' actually. Just that it'd be sweet if your tax burden could be proportionately reduced if you chose not to multiply. Call it a 'carbon credit' for choosing not to further eff over the planet with your spawn. How about that?

I kind of wish people would complain less about paying taxes and get way more involved in how their taxes are spent.

[lifelinksplit]

I doubt you really meant to come off this way, but this paints you as a massive stereotype of the tech bro transplant. 200K is good living anywhere.

I know I'm very much in the minority(and poor) but the amount of money people are complaining about not being able to comfortable with is nuts.(yeah we all have different ideas of comfortable)

I've got no kids but my strategy has been to cut out as many expenses as possible. It's not popular but buying an old shitty house and driving old vehicles in a place like not Bozeman has freed me up immensely.

Hope all the mags getting pushed out of places they once loved land on their feet.

I am also one who believes more and better education benefits us all.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app

[sirbumpsalot]

I know I'm very much in the minority(and poor) but the amount of money people are complaining about not being able to comfortable with is nuts.(yeah we all have different ideas of comfortable)

I've got no kids but my strategy has been to cut out as many expenses as possible. It's not popular but buying an old shitty house and driving old vehicles in a place like not Bozeman has freed me up immensely.

Hope all the mags getting pushed out of places they once loved land on their feet.

I am also one who believes more and better education benefits us all.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app

You must be single too. I've never met a woman that can't help but to continually buy "stuff" and need more and more space to display it or store it.

[neufox47]

Breckenridge, Vail and Steamboat have placed or are considering STR moratoriums on new licenses unless the property is specifically built for STR (has a front desk, property mgr, is a time share, etc). Will it work to get owners to convert STRs to LTRs?

Let's look at the type of second home owners:

A type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
"I use that unit intermittently, so I am never long terming. So I'll use it more often like I did during the pandemic, and I'll spend less and you'll have less town revenue."

B type of owner will not convert to LTR: SECOND HOME USER
"I bought the place to use for myself, but I need the STR income to afford it, so I'll just sell the unit to" A type above.

C type of owner will not convert to LTR: INVESTOR
"Well, I bought it to STR, so I might as well sell at peak prices to" A type above.

D type of owner who WILL convert to LTR: INVESTOR
"I was looking for that 10% STR net annual return. I guess I'll just take a 0-3% annual net to rent to a local instead of selling the place because maybe I want the investment/future primary."

And here are the reactions of local owners:
E type of owner who will not convert to LTR:
"I live here full time and I don't want a full time roommate, but it was going to be nice having a little extra income from occasional STRing the extra bedroom... dang... less money to spend in the community."

F type of owner who WILL convert to LTR or who will NOT purchase property or WILL purchase a smaller place:
"I live here full time and I was going to make the mortgage by STRing the extra bedroom a few peak weekends a year, but now I guess I will have to have a roommate or buy a smaller place that cannot fit my future family."

I think you harm a lot of people, cut out a ton of revenue, and end up creating very few additional LTRs. It might lower real estate prices some in the long term but there would be a lot of sales short term as people downsize. As usual, the RE industry wins.

One of my good friends is building a house near A Basin that will have two units. One the will be a LTR. The other they will use as their second home. Incentivizing those type of configurations could significantly add to the local supply of housing. County has been a huge pita to deal with. Project has been delayed over a year due to county.

[MontuckyFried]

I kind of wish people would complain less about paying taxes and get way more involved in how their taxes are spent.

Been there, done that. Went to all the community meetings and school board sessions about schools being built. I saw the bloat and blatant good ol' boy cronyism going on. I publicly called it out. The process to select a builder and designs were a complete and total sham. The board (who had members certainly in bed with the contractors) had their minds made up already. Went exactly the way we all knew it would. They "take questions" but they give you the same BS patronizing responses, and it's all in one ear and out the other. Same exact thing was lather, rinse, repeat for the local town hospital. They knew who they were gonna use on all fronts, who to build, who to stamp their name on it. But they dragged us through the same phony process all the same.

It's discouraging. You can get as involved as you want to as a citizen, campaign and appeal to the townfolk all you want (I made phone calls, I went door to door to talk to folks, I talked to board members, leaders, staff), but ultimately cronyism prevails, and THAT'S what drives up our local taxes to obscene levels. I don't mind taxes. I DO mind unnecessary bloat, like the most luxurious of silly finishes on an elementary school and paying the builder tens of millions, while blatantly screwing over the teachers and staff on pay. Million dollar Foucault pendulum at the middle school entrance here? Yeah, no. Cool, but unnecessary. I think that little middle school was somewhere around 50 million. Uhhhh, no.