Real Estate Crash thread

**dan_pdx** · 07-31-2021, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

Magic eight ball says, "Ask again in 6 months."

Let's wait and see what happens with the eviction moratorium ending and how that plays out.

Yeah, I would feel the same way, but I'm looking at selling / buying / moving towns at some point in the next 6-7 months. Kind of leaning towards "it's going to keep getting crazier" so selling, renting for approx. 6 mo. then buying might not be a good play.

**rideit** · 07-31-2021, 10:47 PM

More Zillow bullshit, their rental ‘zestimate’ for the houses on our block in JH is $12,500 a month.
OK.
We do not have a ‘fancy’ house.

**liv2ski** · 08-01-2021, 08:51 AM

That must be based on vacation rents it is picking up.

**altasnob** · 08-01-2021, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by dan_pdx

Yeah, I would feel the same way, but I'm looking at selling / buying / moving towns at some point in the next 6-7 months. Kind of leaning towards "it's going to keep getting crazier" so selling, renting for approx. 6 mo. then buying might not be a good play.

I think this depends on where you are moving. Seattle and Portland markets have had much smaller dips than other places (see chart comparing Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and the most volatile markets in the West-Phoenix and Las Vegas). Bellingham seems to mirror what is going on in Seattle much more than say, Bend to Portland, because Bellingham is only 1.5 hours from Seattle and all the cool kids in Seattle want to move there. So don't expect a major dip anytime soon in Bellingham.

Click image for larger version.

Name: Screenshot 2021-08-01 at 09-16-28 S P Case-Shiller WA-Seattle Home Price Index.png
Views: 113
Size: 89.0 KB
ID: 381220

**dan_pdx** · 08-01-2021, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by altasnob

I think this depends on where you are moving. Seattle and Portland markets have had much smaller dips than other places (see chart comparing Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and the most volatile markets in the West-Phoenix and Las Vegas). Bellingham seems to mirror what is going on in Seattle much more than say, Bend to Portland, because Bellingham is only 1.5 hours from Seattle and all the cool kids in Seattle want to move there. So don't expect a major dip anytime soon in Bellingham.

Yeah, the plan is to sell in PDX and move to Bellingham. We had been planning to sell our Portland house next month and then rent in Bellingham until we find something we like, but if I assume another hot year in the RE market, the idea of being on the sidelines while prices go up another X% in Bellingham is not appealing. Now thinking we're just going to stay in Portland until we can actually buy in Bellingham.

**altasnob** · 08-01-2021, 12:22 PM

Everyone I know who has made the move from Seattle to Bellingham is loaded. Some were able to keep their Seattle house, rent it out, and move to Bellingham. My good friend kept his Seattle area engineering manager job (and salary), works from home three days a week, and wakes up at 3 am to drive into Seattle from Bellingham two days a week. He has a co-worker who commutes from Canada. Bellingham might have the highest cost-real estate relative to what the regular jobs in the area pay of anywhere in the US. If any medium-size city can pass Bozeman on % growth in the next 30 years, it will be Bellingham. It's not as well known to East Coasters as Bozeman but there is a major pipeline from Seattle to Bellingham (think of what Bend would be like if it was only 1.5 hours from Portland).

**RootSkier** · 08-01-2021, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by Yonder_River

This^^

I left in 2003 but it was just fine for those of us that lived there then. I worked at "the" coffee shop which was also a community hub. Lots of down to earth folks and familiar faces. I loved that it was still off the radar then and missoula was "cooler".

Not sure I can square this with the fact that Bozeman house prices have been completely irrational for 20+ years and Missoula was sane until about 5 years ago.

**Ted Striker** · 08-01-2021, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Everyone I know who has made the move from Seattle to Bellingham is loaded.

Bellingham might have the highest cost-real estate relative to what the regular jobs in the area pay of anywhere in the US.

Truth. A friend who was a recent east coast transplant and I were going for a beer, and looking around downtown he opined, "there sure are a lots of people here that don't seem to have to work"

Originally Posted by altasnob

If any medium-size city can pass Bozeman on % growth in the next 30 years, it will be Bellingham. It's not as well known to East Coasters as Bozeman but there is a major pipeline from Seattle to Bellingham (think of what Bend would be like if it was only 1.5 hours from Portland).

The one thing standing in the way of that is that city hall is anti-sprawl. It's infill, or forget it. The spillover effect is that Ferntucky, and the Skagit Valley are growing instead (when it comes to entry-to-mid-priced SFHs). But I suppose it's only a matter of time before all of the I5 corridor is developed as one giant tentacle of Seattle.

Originally Posted by altasnob

and all the cool kids ... want to move there

Plus the never ending stream of the newly retired. That's what I was getting at with my demographics post above. Years ago, someone declared this town to be one of the best places to retire and the graying of Bellingham began. And it makes sense because there are very few good jobs in this town if you aren't in medicine or academia.

It's their money (whether it's for them or their adult children) vs the WFM middle demo that pushes the bidding wars skyward.

**BeardedClam** · 08-01-2021, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by altasnob

Everyone I know who has made the move from Seattle to Bellingham is loaded. Some were able to keep their Seattle house, rent it out, and move to Bellingham. My good friend kept his Seattle area engineering manager job (and salary), works from home three days a week, and wakes up at 3 am to drive into Seattle from Bellingham two days a week. He has a co-worker who commutes from Canada. Bellingham might have the highest cost-real estate relative to what the regular jobs in the area pay of anywhere in the US. If any medium-size city can pass Bozeman on % growth in the next 30 years, it will be Bellingham. It's not as well known to East Coasters as Bozeman but there is a major pipeline from Seattle to Bellingham (think of what Bend would be like if it was only 1.5 hours from Portland).

It's getting pretty fucked up here. People ask how you can tell they just moved from pdx/sfo/hellonearth. The noobs have the plates, the people trying to be local have BXX0000 license plates.

Anyone need help on their 500k knob and tube house electrical, hit me up

**Toadman** · 08-01-2021, 03:43 PM

I guess Billings is where it's at. Sounds like Bozeman is played out already.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/great-res...105053530.html

**yeahman** · 08-01-2021, 04:47 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

I guess Billings is where it's at. Sounds like Bozeman is played out already.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/great-res...105053530.html

Next up: Great Falls

**Harry** · 08-01-2021, 09:39 PM

Chinook !

Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums

**Buster Highmen** · 08-01-2021, 09:44 PM

Browning FTW

**panchosdad** · 08-01-2021, 09:57 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

I guess Billings is where it's at. Sounds like Bozeman is played out already.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/great-res...105053530.html

Butte

**4matic** · 08-01-2021, 10:48 PM

Highest inventory in my former hood in a couple years.

**rideit** · 08-02-2021, 12:14 AM

Anaconda

**beer30** · 08-02-2021, 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by rideit

Anaconda

Quite man

**MontuckyFried** · 08-02-2021, 08:05 AM

Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

Browning FTW

Haha. We should totally start a fake campaign to dupe clueless West coasters into moving to places like that, as we were talking about with Limon and Kit Carson, CO.

Only problem with Browning is that it DOES at least have good access to the Glacier area, so we need to send these foos somewhere even more remote.

...like Plentywood, Montana.

**MontuckyFried** · 08-02-2021, 08:24 AM

Wife snapped this yesterday. Just zero self awareness with these self-entitled CA douchebags...
How NOT to make friends as you move in:

Click image for larger version.

Name: Texiforney Way.jpg
Views: 130
Size: 1.14 MB
ID: 381284

**El Chupacabra** · 08-02-2021, 08:26 AM

Pic taken in Montana?

... which isn't on the way from CA to TX, unless you're on vacation, in which case pay for it yourself.

**My Pet Powder Goat** · 08-02-2021, 08:27 AM

All the douchy conservatives are leaving CA for Texas, Idaho and other meccas of "personal freedom and cheap gas" . Guess their mantra of self relience and "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps" rings as hollow as the rest of their party platform

Sent from my SM-N986U using TGR Forums mobile app

**AdironRider** · 08-02-2021, 08:28 AM

Seen about 50 of these in Jackson this summer.

I can’t imagine that car is large enough for their ego to fit inside.

**dunfree** · 08-02-2021, 08:31 AM

people Venmo them money to go back to California? Novel extortion scheme.

**MontuckyFried** · 08-02-2021, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by AdironRider

Seen about 50 of these in Jackson this summer.

The Venmo account info? Must be a millennial thing. Does anybody actually send money to these shmos? The hashtag was the icing on the douchebag cake. Again, not gonna make any friends if you announce on your car a message you're moving from California to TX, MT, ID, WY, anywhere really.