Real Estate Crash thread

[Toadman]

Was out and about this weekend and decided to pop in to see a few open houses. Both over a million. One was listed for just under $1.4 million, (4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3k sq. ft.) and they had dropped the price by $75k after just one week. Maybe they got no offers that first week and the agent said, let's drop the price and see if we get any takers?

Agent said the sweet spot was $1 million to $1.3 million for Bend. She said things have definitely slowed down, and folks are dropping prices and they are not seeing offers the same day a property is listed. I'm guessing all the wealthy cash buyers have pulled the trigger and now it might be a good time for the bottom feeders to start looking for "bargains".

[Ted Striker]

It's also that listings based on comps always escalate to the point of overshoot.

[Dantheman]

My Dad's GF bought a house in Bend 4-ish years ago. 3/2 ~2.5k sf, walking distance to downtown IIRC. These days it must be worth double what she paid.

[dan_pdx]

My Dad's GF bought a house in Bend 4-ish years ago. 3/2 ~2.5k sf, walking distance to downtown IIRC. These days it must be worth double what she paid.

Yeah, my inlaws had a potential sale fall through about 3 years ago because the buyer asked them to pay for a new roof and they declined. Now Zillow has their home value at something like 1.8x what they had been asking back then.

[Toadman]

My Dad's GF bought a house in Bend 4-ish years ago. 3/2 ~2.5k sf, walking distance to downtown IIRC. These days it must be worth double what she paid.

Maybe not double, but at least 50% increase. Seeing lots of Zillow closings where the houses are going for close to or slightly over 50% for houses that were bought 3-4 years ago. Makes me wonder if people are selling up into some of the new construction around here.
House behind our lot went on the market this week for 50% more than they paid back in 2018. Will be interesting to see how soon it sells and closing price. It's got really good views of Hood, Jefferson and Washington.

[Mustonen]

And we got the fucking house!

Should have lowballed.

New view….

[Toadman]

Nothing new to report.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-...130004294.html

Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 16.6% annual gain in May, up from 14.8% in April — marking the highest reading in more than 30 years of data. It is also the 12th straight month of accelerating prices. The 20-City Composite posted a 17% annual gain, up from 15% a month earlier. The 20-City results surpassed analysts’ expectations of a 16.3% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
Once again Phoenix led the 20-City Composite, recording a 25.9% annual gain. The city has led the composite for two years now. San Diego and Seattle followed by posting 24.7% and 23.4% gains respectively.

[pepperdawg]

New view….

Nice - where is this? Congrats.

[Benny Profane]

Nothing new to report.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-...130004294.html

Love to see a chart of the price index of Phoenix laid over the rise in temperatures and drop in rainfall and reservoir levels in the west over twenty years.

[Mustonen]

Nice - where is this? Congrats.

Michigan.

So excited to have woods.

And bears.

[Toadman]

Love to see a chart of the price index of Phoenix laid over the rise in temperatures and drop in rainfall and reservoir levels in the west over twenty years.

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/26/10105...eep-up-with-it

https://www.vox.com/2014/10/17/69948...n-west-drought

[Benny Profane]

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/26/10105...eep-up-with-it

https://www.vox.com/2014/10/17/69948...n-west-drought

And yet, build build build!

[altasnob]

Interesting chart

And I bet Benny will jump and down pointing out how superior East and the Midwest are in that they don't use as much water as the West. But Benny doesn't understand the climate of the PNW. From San Francisco up along the coast to the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, West of the Cascade Crest (where all the population centers are), is amongst the wettest area of the lower 48 (most annual rainfall). The wettest place in lower 48 is the West and Southwest side of the Olympic Peninsula. But from July to October, this same area is amongst the driest regions of the US. We don't get monsoonal showers West of the Cascades and it basically doesn't rain here in the Summer (so we use a lot of water keeping our yards green). Native plant landscaping in the PNW is much more water efficient because native plants here are extremely drought tolerant. So I am not surprised that Washington and Oregon rank high on most water use per capital compared to Midwest and East (where Summer rain is common).

[dunfree]

The upper Midwest is tops in home energy use per capita, an inverse.

[liv2ski]

I don't know about AZ, but much of So CAL will need to build desalinization plants going forward and you better have solar panels on the house to run the AC when the grid blacksout from to much use. That is the reality coming to CA in the next 10 years, maybe less.

[Mazderati]

I wonder how much use it or lose it water laws factor into the water use in western states.

[Dantheman]

I wonder how much use it or lose it water laws factor into the water use in western states.

Overall, bigly. For that graphic specifically, probably not much since it's supposedly household domestic use only.

[dan_pdx]

I don't know about AZ, but much of So CAL will need to build desalinization plants going forward and you better have solar panels on the house to run the AC when the grid blacksout from to much use. That is the reality coming to CA in the next 10 years, maybe less.

I understand that when you get into desalination on a large scale, where to dump the salt/brine becomes a concern. So efficient water usage still has a big role to play. But yeah, places that had pleasant climates in the past are getting less and less pleasant.

[dan_pdx]

We don't get monsoonal showers West of the Cascades and it basically doesn't rain here in the Summer (so we use a lot of water keeping our yards green). Native plant landscaping in the PNW is much more water efficient because native plants here are extremely drought tolerant. So I am not surprised that Washington and Oregon rank high on most water use per capital compared to Midwest and East (where Summer rain is common).

Pretty much this - hostas are a staple around here, but need watering in the summer. Most people in my neighborhood let their lawns brown out in the summer, but the ornamentals like hosta etc. still get watered.

[sirbumpsalot]

Pretty much this - hostas are a staple around here, but need watering in the summer. Most people in my neighborhood let their lawns brown out in the summer, but the ornamentals like hosta etc. still get watered.

My lawn browns out even if I water it in summer! I have no sprinklers for trees and hedges and know the roots go under the grass so I have to water it to feed them.

[Benny Profane]

Interesting chart

And I bet Benny will jump and down pointing out how superior East and the Midwest are in that they don't use as much water as the West. But Benny doesn't understand the climate of the PNW. From San Francisco up along the coast to the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, West of the Cascade Crest (where all the population centers are), is amongst the wettest area of the lower 48 (most annual rainfall). The wettest place in lower 48 is the West and Southwest side of the Olympic Peninsula. But from July to October, this same area is amongst the driest regions of the US. We don't get monsoonal showers West of the Cascades and it basically doesn't rain here in the Summer (so we use a lot of water keeping our yards green). Native plant landscaping in the PNW is much more water efficient because native plants here are extremely drought tolerant. So I am not surprised that Washington and Oregon rank high on most water use per capital compared to Midwest and East (where Summer rain is common).

It's not a matter of water use, per se. It just rains here. All year (well, in the winter we get a snowpack, except Vermont, where it rains). We don't concern ourselves with rationing water, because it falls out of the sky regularly. It doesn't fucking rain in Arizona, and it's hot as fuck. Capisce?

[Dantheman]

It's not a matter of water use, per se. It just rains here. All year (well, in the winter we get a snowpack, except Vermont, where it rains). We don't concern ourselves with rationing water, because it falls out of the sky regularly. It doesn't fucking rain in Arizona, and it's hot as fuck. Capisce?

The flipside is that, while it's quite politically unpalatable (for now), if you ban residential lawn watering (or raise water rates enough for higher usage tiers) you can pretty easily solve the shortage with the stroke of a pen.

[Benny Profane]

So that you can continue building more!

[Dantheman]

So that you can continue building more!

In large part this is being driven by migration from eastern and midwestern states (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._net_migration). Even Utah's total fertility rate has dropped below 2 in recent years. Stop moving here, assholes!

[MontuckyFried]

The flipside is that, while it's quite politically unpalatable (for now), if you ban residential lawn watering (or raise water rates enough for higher usage tiers) you can pretty easily solve the shortage with the stroke of a pen.

HA! Are you daft? You DO realize that residential water use in the West is but a mere drop in the bucket (pun intended) compared to agricultural use where for SOME insane reason, everybody seems to be ok with growing everything in the freaking desert. SEE: California almonds. The amount of farming going on in places where it shouldn't even really exist, let alone at that scale, is absurd.