Page 1 of 321 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 8019
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,781

    Real Estate Crash thread

    Well, it's official, because Greenspan sez so, by announcing last week that the boom is over in a post retirement speech. Soooo.....soft landing?.....nah, I don't think so. It's going to be rough for a few years.

    From the NYT Real Estate blog:

    "Thomas M. Stevens, president of the National Association of Realtors, said in the news release: “Inventories levels have come up to balanced levels between home buyers and sellers, so the pressure has come off of home prices and most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future.”

    Except where they drop. Here’s something we haven’t seen for a long time in the NAR report: “The median existing-home price in the Midwest was $166,000, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier.”

    Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. said he wasn’t surprised by the decline in sales volume, but added: “The rest of the report is awful.” What’s got him bothered?

    He said that the year-over-year increase in unsold inventory of houses of 42.1 percent is the fastest recorded since data collection began in 1982. “No wonder price gains are slowing,” he told clients. “Expect outright declines over the summer.”"

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Eagle River Alaska
    Posts
    10,921
    sweet soon I'll be able to buy some land and start my way to baronhood
    Its not that I suck at spelling, its that I just don't care

  3. #3
    Squatch Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by ak_powder_monkey
    sweet soon I'll be able to buy some land and start my way to baronhood
    bwah!

    although i think you need serfs.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Teton Village
    Posts
    2,614
    But Alan Greenspan is not the MAN any more:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairma...ederal_Reserve

    13. Alan Greenspan² (August 11, 1987 – January 31, 2006)
    14. Ben Bernanke (February 1, 2006 – )

    So I take it he made these remarks as a private citizen? Currently Ben Bernanke is the most powerful man in the world. I agree that Greenspan could still make markets tumble if he wanted to, but ... he ain't in charge anymore.
    Ski Shop



    Do not tell fish stories where the people know you; but particularly, don't tell them where they know the fish.

    Mark Twain

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    What an awesome time to start a new line of work as a mortgage broker!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Posts
    5,531
    I was hoping that Delta would fold so all the pilots and flight attendants would have to put their Park City condos and houses in old town on the market at the same time. I was willing to forfeit all my Delta FF miles for this. Unfortunately, it didn't happen last time it looked close, but hope springs eternal.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    http://tursi.com/gmaps/displaycoords.html
    Posts
    3,628
    Quote Originally Posted by skiing-in-jackson
    But Alan Greenspan is not the MAN any more:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairma...ederal_Reserve

    13. Alan Greenspan² (August 11, 1987 – January 31, 2006)
    14. Ben Bernanke (February 1, 2006 – )

    So I take it he made these remarks as a private citizen? Currently Ben Bernanke is the most powerful man in the world. I agree that Greenspan could still make markets tumble if he wanted to, but ... he ain't in charge anymore.
    Well, TFA did say "post-retirment speech."
    One thing I will tell you - even now, he's got a lot more insight than any of us do, that's for sure. He's probably got more insight than Bernanke..

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    47,372
    Benny's got the schadenfreude machine working again I see.

    So I'm guessing the ex got the house, Benny?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,781
    bingo. but she can't touch the 401k.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Hugh's Mom's House
    Posts
    11,873
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodore
    What an awesome time to start a new line of work as a mortgage broker!
    Really, though, it might be. Hammer on the people with ARMs. They better refi and quick.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    30

    good info

    great blog on current real estate conditions

    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,781
    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier
    Really, though, it might be. Hammer on the people with ARMs. They better refi and quick.

    "The next big thing to worry about: foreclosures. It doesn’t seem like a source of anxiety yet, but the numbers are climbing. Keep the scale in perspective as you look at some of these articles from across the country. We are coming off a low base.

    Sacramento: “We’re not seeing a lot of people at that foreclosure stage yet, but we’re sure seeing a lot of people who are headed that way,” said Jeff Tarbell, president of Sacramento-based ATM Mortgage.

    Las Vegas: “Assistant Clark County Recorder Charles Harvey calls the spike in foreclosures significant. He said, ‘As the interest rate increased, we have seen an increase in the number of foreclosures.’” (Tip courtesy of Ben Jones at the Foreclosure Report blog. )

    The economists I’ve talked to say that the bulk of adjustable-rate mortgages don’t start to trigger until next year. That’s when the nail-biting begins."

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Stuck in perpetual Meh
    Posts
    35,258
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane
    bingo. but she can't touch the 401k.
    OK, that's some funny shit.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier
    Really, though, it might be. Hammer on the people with ARMs. They better refi and quick.
    The company I work for has been around since before the boom, but the # of employees peaked around '04. Lots of refi's then and the buying boom. All those 3 year ARM's are going up and now there are 4 of us. My soon to be project is to go through all the files and try to get all those people into something better for them.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    8,756
    vegas bad, very bad

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Hugh's Mom's House
    Posts
    11,873
    What kind of moron ever thought the Vegas market could hold out?

    Where I am, in MT, there is currently a serious biotech boom going on, one federal and one private, it is a big retirement/second home community, and the market never got as crazy. I think we are looking at a slight slowdown but no major crashes here.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Hugh's Mom's House
    Posts
    11,873
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodore
    The company I work for has been around since before the boom, but the # of employees peaked around '04. Lots of refi's then and the buying boom. All those 3 year ARM's are going up and now there are 4 of us. My soon to be project is to go through all the files and try to get all those people into something better for them.
    I only know enough about lending to be dangerous. What exactly happens at the five year (or whenever) stage of an ARM? How much will interest rates go up, and how much are people paying now? Are there other costs that come due?

    We have two mortgages (separate houses), one at 5.875 and one at 6. I would be shitting if my rates were going up but my property values weren't.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier
    I only know enough about lending to be dangerous. What exactly happens at the five year (or whenever) stage of an ARM? How much will interest rates go up, and how much are people paying now? Are there other costs that come due?

    We have two mortgages (separate houses), one at 5.875 and one at 6. I would be shitting if my rates were going up but my property values weren't.
    ARMs are set up so that the rate, in your case 5.875 and 6, stay the same for a set time period. 2 or 3 years is most common. These are reffered to as 2/28 or 3/27 ARMs. Fixed for 2 or 3 years, then variable with the market for the remainder of the mortgage.

    Different ARMs go off of different indexes for their rates. These can be t-bills, CD's, COFI, or LIBOR. In recent history(last decade or so) the COFI has been the most steady.

    When the "fixed" period is over, they start adjusting. This usually means up, especially now, since most people bought or refi'd a few years ago when the rates bottomed out. They usually adjust every 6-12 months on a set formula for the new rate. A lot of them have limits or caps. This limits how much they can adjust in 1 period and also limits the lifetime adjustment.

    For instance take a 2/28 ARM with 3/1/6 caps.

    That means the first time it adjusts, it can't go up or down more than 3%, each adjustment after that can't move more than 1% and over the lifetime of the loan it can't vary by more than 6% of your original rate.

    No other costs should come due. Only thing that should change is taxes. If your loan has a prepay clause in it and you prepay, then you pay a penalty for that, usually a sizable one at that.

    Looking into a fixed rate might not be a bad idea with the market cooling off. Might want to talk to a local broker and see what they can offer. This should be free, and more knowledge never hurt no one....

    Hope this helps.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Eagle River Alaska
    Posts
    10,921
    Quote Originally Posted by Squatch
    bwah!

    although i think you need serfs.
    thats where china comes in, I'll be a globalized baron although I'll feel bad for taking away all the good serf jobs from americans
    Its not that I suck at spelling, its that I just don't care

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    Quote Originally Posted by ak_powder_monkey
    thats where china comes in, I'll be a globalized baron although I'll feel bad for taking away all the good serf jobs from americans

    Slave master. Wait til the boys on teh ihatewhiteguys.com forums find out about this...

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Hugh's Mom's House
    Posts
    11,873
    Quote Originally Posted by Theodore
    Looking into a fixed rate might not be a bad idea with the market cooling off. Might want to talk to a local broker and see what they can offer. This should be free, and more knowledge never hurt no one....
    Thanks for the info. Ours are actually fixed. I wanted nothing to do with an ARM.

    I guess my question was bad, though. What happens with an interest only ARM at 3 or 5 years? At some point, don't you have to start paying the principal? At that point, wouldn't your payment go up dramatically?

  22. #22
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Stuck in perpetual Meh
    Posts
    35,258
    30 year fixed at 5 1/8. I'm happy.

    According to the analysts we interviewed the crashes will be in the smaller markets, with NY, Boston, LA, DC, SF etc. still seeing gains, altho more modest than before.

    Since I don't plan on moving out of my house until I retire I don't care, really. We're already up 30% in 3 years, which helps with the Home Equity line we'll need eventually for renovations, but other than that I don't need my house to make a shitton of moolah.... my first one did that!

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier
    Thanks for the info. Ours are actually fixed. I wanted nothing to do with an ARM.

    I guess my question was bad, though. What happens with an interest only ARM at 3 or 5 years? At some point, don't you have to start paying the principal? At that point, wouldn't your payment go up dramatically?
    Just asked my processor since he knows more than I. He said most are 10 year interest only. At that point you are essentially looking at a traditional 20 year amortized loan. Essentially you are paying $ for the sake of paying $ to live in a house. You make no headway into your debt at all. The shorter the term a mortgage is amortized over the less interest you pay, but the higher the payment(obviously).

    So, those poor bastards who got into a house for the sake of getting a house and have their financial picture set using their interest only loan are in for a painful wake up call when they start eating into the principle.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,342
    Vancouver market is insane. Up 80% in 5 years. I'm on track to be mortgage free in 3 years - I want that financial security. Planning on dumping other RE holdings and taking my profits. Maybe go buy some Dynafit Comforts or something.

    Its just too nuts.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    2,134
    I would too. When I finally buy a house here in the next couple years I plan on paying it off ASAP. I HATE having debt.
    Kansas - First Of The Rectangle States

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •