Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

Nobody can read your rant on the default blue screen background

[sirbumpsalot]

Nobody can read your rant on the default blue screen background

Worse yet....thats the 3rd time its been posted here.....its the Boise article again

[Kevo]

Must be the guy pissed off about living next to asphalt plant

In one of his posts, that guy said he rents a house in Targhee Ranch.

[muted reborn]

Nobody can read your rant on the default blue screen background

Not my problem boomer or even a rant by me. I thought I’d help out the people like XXX who couldn’t access the Boise article. What a copy/paste PITA that was too, ha.

[dan_pdx]

That was one of the better articles I've read about the current agonizing home buying process. It's infuriating that some investor, who at the end of the day doesn't care if he wins or loses the bid, makes one of the better offers and prices out desperate families from a house that isn't even that great. Greedy guy should go to hell. If that guy dies tomorrow and all his properties go on the market, the world will be a tiny bit better. Which is as callous of a thought on my part as that turd's mere existence.

don't hate the player, hate the game. If we as a society agree this is a concern, there should be tax structures that discourage it. Of course, the wealthy are just fine with the current status quo and it's hard to outbid them to get legislators to act in the common interest.

[Buster Highmen]

Not my problem boomer or even a rant by me. I thought I’d help out the people like XXX who couldn’t access the Boise article. What a copy/paste PITA that was too, ha.

please edit out the color tags

[Ted Striker]

It's not next door to an asphalt plant...



https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15820494

But it is next door to a vacant lot owned by a homeless hoarder



He owns a second lot two blocks away as well. Even the homeless are RE "investors" these days.

[XXX-er]

That was one of the better articles I've read about the current agonizing home buying process. It's infuriating that some investor, who at the end of the day doesn't care if he wins or loses the bid, makes one of the better offers and prices out desperate families from a house that isn't even that great. Greedy guy should go to hell. If that guy dies tomorrow and all his properties go on the market, the world will be a tiny bit better. Which is as callous of a thought on my part as that turd's mere existence.

A neighbor ( furin born dentist making the coin fixing FN teeth for the gov ) did the buy 6 or 7 houses, rent them out during the 1981 housing boom in Vangroovy where houses went up 40% in 8 months and all the way back down for a proven net rise of 6%, the total time start to finish was a year and a half

Those figures I know for certian, i was in court over the settlement deal for my starter marriage due to housing bubbling and i had to pay a certifyed appraiser $$$ to show up and testify as a pro witness

shit goes up , shit goes down

[dan_pdx]

It's not next door to an asphalt plant...

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15820494

But it is next door to a vacant lot owned by a homeless hoarder

He owns a second lot two blocks away as well. Even the homeless are RE "investors" these days.

I looked at that listing yesterday! Not gonna lie, I was pretty fascinated by the second bathroom - see below. Think the homeless hoarder would consider selling either of his lots?

[Ted Striker]

But in Vancouver, mostly up.



It's a little fuzzy, but the detached average price is just shy of 2 mil.

[XXX-er]

yeah but from 81 to 89 it went down and then again in 95 to 03 which were some reasonable cycles

after that all bets were off as my people were buying RE to launder money

[Ted Striker]

I looked at that listing yesterday! Not gonna lie, I was pretty fascinated by the second bathroom

Yeah, I was laughing at that too. They've been "fixing" that place up for years, mostly with what I assume are stuff from the ReStore and freebies from CL, FB, ND, etc.

Think the homeless hoarder would consider selling either of his lots?

I looked into to buying it back when there was a condemned house on it, and I'd be surprised if others didn't as well. He was just too difficult for anybody to deal with - including the city, who eventually condemned both of his houses, and subsequently demolished them.

At this point, I'd be surprised if he'd be considered mentally competent to handle his own legal affairs without some type of power of attorney/guardianship oversight.

He hasn't payed property taxes on either for years. The second lot has already gone to the courthouse steps, and is currently in the redemption period, which will expire later this year. I'll be very surprised if the same doesn't happen with this lot. It's pretty sad really.

[muted reborn]

please edit out the color tags

Hopefully it looks better now? I have a white BG and it always looked fine.

don't hate the player, hate the game. If we as a society agree this is a concern, there should be tax structures that discourage it. Of course, the wealthy are just fine with the current status quo and it's hard to outbid them to get legislators to act in the common interest.

No, the player is immoral here not the game. If he was doing the same thing years ago on houses that weren't being bid on or really cared about, it's different. The house we bought 9 years ago sat for months but was/is a great house, there were no bidders for example. If we got outbid by an investor, so be it, we had options to buy other houses.

Morally he needs to look in the mirror and think, "Is this the right investment when it makes others more lives difficult? Do I really need the money? Can I invest in something else and make a ton of money too?" But he's just another scumbag walking the earth not caring too much for others.

[Buster Highmen]

Hopefully it looks better now? I have a white BG and it always looked fine.

I can SEEEEEEEE!

No, the player is immoral here not the game. If he was doing the same thing years ago on houses that weren't being bid on or really cared about, it's different. The house we bought 9 years ago sat for months but was/is a great house, there were no bidders for example. If we got outbid by an investor, so be it, we had options to buy other houses.

I'm guilty of this, staked our claims 10+ years ago.

Morally he needs to look in the mirror and think, "Is this the right investment when it makes others more lives difficult? Do I really need the money? Can I invest in something else and make a ton of money too?" But he's just another scumbag walking the earth not caring too much for others.

For those of us that have our reasons to be leery of the stock market, real estate is a better option and few options compare.

I do think that we are driven to this option in this economic system. I also think that too few play the game with any heart or concern for others. The financial gradient is too steep.

[dan_pdx]

I need to draw on the wisdom of crowds, but I'm going to settle for whatever I can get from you lot instead

Here's my take on things: even though we appear to be in an unsustainable RE bubble that's ripe to pop, the new covid variants are going to result in more lockdowns and extended WFH, which is going to keep driving RE prices higher for at least the next 6-8 months, especially in "Zoom towns" and other non-major metros.

What do you think? Is that on target?

[muted reborn]

I can SEEEEEEEE!

I'm guilty of this, staked our claims 10+ years ago.


For those of us that have our reasons to be leery of the stock market, real estate is a better option and few options compare.

I do think that we are driven to this option in this economic system. I also think that too few play the game with any heart or concern for others. The financial gradient is too steep.

I don't think it's the same IMO, although every circumstance is different and unknown. This California guy had 9 properties in Boise alone. He bid high enough that a working family is now strapped month-to-month because they needed to beat him. How much less would their mortgage payment be if he never bid I wonder. His timing and amount of properties he already has just reeks of greed and selfishness.

I suppose the same thing may have happened 10 years ago in Ogden as investors swooped in, remodeled, and priced out locals....but locals had other options at the time. I think.

[Buster Highmen]

I don't think it's the same IMO, although every circumstance is different and unknown. This California guy had 9 properties in Boise alone. He bid high enough that a working family is now strapped month-to-month because they needed to beat him. How much less would their mortgage payment be if he never bid I wonder. His timing and amount of properties he already has just reeks of greed and selfishness.

I guess we might find common ground by requiring some sense of community and heart in a capitalist economy?

The problem is that there are no guardrails and as such, they system is broken and the assholes are going to do what assholes do. That goes for both landlords and tenants.

I suppose the same thing may have happened 10 years ago in Ogden as investors swooped in, remodeled, and priced out locals....but locals had other options at the time. I think.

Yup. At $30/ft^2 for good bones, it was hard to pass up, given no other investment options when the stock market is so fucked.

[Kevo]

I need to draw on the wisdom of crowds, but I'm going to settle for whatever I can get from you lot instead

Here's my take on things: even though we appear to be in an unsustainable RE bubble that's ripe to pop, the new covid variants are going to result in more lockdowns and extended WFH, which is going to keep driving RE prices higher for at least the next 6-8 months, especially in "Zoom towns" and other non-major metros.

What do you think? Is that on target?

It's looking more and more like we are in for another Covid winter. Employers like Google are walking back their "everyone back to the office or else" stance. More and more people are going to perma remote status, and in my professional social circle the idea of spending another Covid winter in a major metro is wearing on people. I'm getting reach outs from people in major metros who are interested in mountain town living. One of my former employees is making the move from PDX to ID in September. He'll no issues affording a house with his tech salary and RSUs.

Money is also cheap right now. Jumbo loans are being originated at 2.625 here locally. If you've got 10% down, anything goes. The originators don't care- they'll underwrite anything that checks boxes and then offload to institutional investors. Absolute madness at the moment, and with stock valuations high the tech/finance crowd is printing money from RSUs and options in their comp plans.

I can't imagine the slow roll of foreclosures making a dent. Plus, my friend who works for a large institutional mortgage bank has told me they are offloading tranches of distressed inventory to institutional investors. The old court house steps auction this isn't going to happen the same way it did last time.


My bet is on the music continuing until the cheap money somehow dries up.

[dunfree]

I need to draw on the wisdom of crowds, but I'm going to settle for whatever I can get from you lot instead

Here's my take on things: even though we appear to be in an unsustainable RE bubble that's ripe to pop, the new covid variants are going to result in more lockdowns and extended WFH, which is going to keep driving RE prices higher for at least the next 6-8 months, especially in "Zoom towns" and other non-major metros.

What do you think? Is that on target?

Walmart announced get vaxxed or GTFO for managers and HQ types; so have other employers and many colleges have. Exp3ct more soon, th3 ball is rolling. Northern states that would expect a winter bump have higher vax rates for the most part. There’s little appetite for further restrictions, things are gonna slowly open. Workforce challenges for services will restrict some of the appeal of citys, but reading here mountain towns are way worse off. The Christmas shopping season (starting now) is gonna be fucjed up with shortages likely. Expect more dead malls.

[Ted Striker]

I don't like attempting to predict the future, and just focus on the idea of 'what would it take to ____"

Generally agree with kevo, but the following does concern me

...Jumbo loans are being originated at 2.625 here locally. If you've got 10% down, anything goes. The originators don't care- they'll underwrite anything that checks boxes and then offload to institutional investors.

...large institutional mortgage bank has told me they are offloading tranches of distressed inventory to institutional investors.

My bet is on the music continuing until the cheap money somehow dries up.

Yeah that and/or a shift in demographics.

[rideit]

Meanwhile, in Driggs things have entered the "are you fucking kidding me?" phase- https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...04097778_zpid/

LOL, I almost bought one of those in ‘99 or so for about $189k. Hilarious. Ended up with a much nicer house in Victor, (for not much more $$) but isn’t worth quite that (or so I thought). Strange times.

[Toadman]

I need to draw on the wisdom of crowds, but I'm going to settle for whatever I can get from you lot instead

Here's my take on things: even though we appear to be in an unsustainable RE bubble that's ripe to pop, the new covid variants are going to result in more lockdowns and extended WFH, which is going to keep driving RE prices higher for at least the next 6-8 months, especially in "Zoom towns" and other non-major metros.

What do you think? Is that on target?

Magic eight ball says, "Ask again in 6 months."

Let's wait and see what happens with the eviction moratorium ending and how that plays out.

[Yonder_River]

That's not a teller window, there's no slot to exchange anything.


You guys shitting on Bozeman as never being cool: THAT WAS THE POINT. In the nineties it was a small sleepy cow town with incredible beauty and one of the coolest ski areas in NA very close by. People drove through and couldn't see what the locals saw. If you wanted a cooler town, go to Missoula. Then all the local downtown places turned from machine repairs, mom and pop stores, to art galleries and douchey bars by 2005, and the newcomers came and said 'wow no soul here!'. Yeah, they are catering to you guys. Cause and effect.

Yeah, Bridger is the soul of the community, if that's not enough too bad. And all the old quiet neighborhoods are very peaceful and calm to live in. I can't comment on all the new subdivisons that are just weird. Things changed 20 years ago, not last year.

And Bozeman is still special. I miss skiing with the local kids and seeing them grow up to be cool humans. I miss the community badly, not the town itself.

This^^

I left in 2003 but it was just fine for those of us that lived there then. I worked at "the" coffee shop which was also a community hub. Lots of down to earth folks and familiar faces. I loved that it was still off the radar then and missoula was "cooler".

[climberevan]

Things continue to be insane here. New construction in my hood is on the market for $900k+. One place has raised it's asking price every couple of months for a year as it's been being built and it's now at $989k.

On my street a guy built a house 2 years ago that's way fancier than everything else, then put it on the market at $1.5M about a month ago. It's already under contract. The next door neighbor has like 20 junk tractors in the back yard, but the RE photos didn't depict that detail.

(I bought for under $200k in 2013 and others in the hood were selling for $350k as late as 3 years ago. The real junkers are now going for $400+.)

[muted reborn]

I worked at "the" coffee shop which was also a community hub. Lots of down to earth folks and familiar faces. I loved that it was still off the radar then and missoula was "cooler".

Awesome. That coffee shop sponsored the alternative campus 'zine Bob F. and I produced in the nineties and I am grateful for that. They supported a very questionable and angsty creative writing outlet in a supposedly soulless cowtown back in the day. (Bob moved on to the Chronicle after graduation and was responsible for writing the ridiculously funny Police Reports there, which as you may know was infamous beyond even Bozeman.)

I worked at 'the' sandwich shop in town so everyone recognized me even if they couldn't quite place me, ha. I'm sure you and I crossed paths.