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  1. #10251
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    Sep 2006
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    House I sold in the East burbs of Seattle 42 months ago is showing on Zillow for $200k more than I sold it for. Now, that is nutz!
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  2. #10252
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    You mean like a global pandemic? Be patient.
    I think he means more along the lines of a global depression. But, as you said, be patient.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  3. #10253
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    Feb 2010
    Location
    Portland by way of Bozeman
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    Quote Originally Posted by MontuckyFried View Post
    That's insane. Especially considering the usual wages around there. Looks like the place continues it's growing percentage of trustfunders and other rich mofos. Many of whom try and act like they're dirtbags. Lol. Young bearded/mustachio'd dudes drinking PBR be like "Pay no attention to my decked out Sprinter 4x4 out back. You didn't see that. The struggle is real, ya know."
    Of the near-20 years I lived there, it wasn't so much the trustafarians. Sure, there were some. There are in any mountain town a decent ski hill. What I saw more were out-of-staters, more so in the years leading up to my departure. Most were from California, but a great deal from the upper midwest and south, that sold their high(er) dollar homes, pulled up stakes and headed west to live the dream. Hell, those moving from California, could sell their million-dollar + house, pay cash for something quaint in Bozeman, and partially retire on the remainder. And as bandwidth speeds increased, and companies let people work remotely, it only fueled the fire.

    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I saw a sticker up there that asked "Does this Sprinter make my trust fund look big?" I still chuckle about it. At least here in the Jackson area, established dual income households, and especially if you are willing to apprentice and go into the trades, can afford a 1/2 million dollar house. I'm not so sure that is true in Bozeman. A good plumber/ electrician / carpenter can get 35-40+ an hour (or more) no problem here.



    That article came out a year or two ago and really seems to me to be just thinly veiled NIMBYism. Not that there aren't challenges to managing growth but Bozeman has shitloads of space to the west to handle smart growth and, like it or not, is going to continue to grow one way or another. I really liked Mountain Journal's recurring series on mountain town mental health and suicide issues but the rest of it just reeks of that elitist "it wasn't crowded until after I moved here" attitude prevalent in pretty much every mountain town. One of our candidates down here in Jackson, Christian Beckwith, is shouting that same mantra from the rooftops currently in our local race also.
    As Lexi-Belle, a Bozeman mag once rightly said on here, "The last person in wants to build the biggest fence." I've seen that fact no bigger than I have in Bozeman.

  4. #10254
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    Nov 2005
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    Making the Bowl Great Again
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    12,545
    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    I see that Bozeman actually does have an urban growth boundary law (as dose Missoula).
    My understanding is that those are more about city services than anything. You are going to have a hard time convincing me either one actually limits anything at all. And Missoula and Bozeman are extremely different in the amount of available land, with Bozeman having absolutely vast areas to grow compared to Missoula, which is surrounded on three sides by public land and permanent open space. There is literally nowhere to develop new areas in the Missoula valley except west, which is definitely happening but also not nearly as desirable as in-town for most people. And luckily, with our wildly inferior skiing and terrible winter weather, Missoula will never have the brobrah cachet of Bozeman.

  5. #10255
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    Jun 2020
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    in a freezer in Italy
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    1,256
    I lived in Montgomery County, Maryland for a very long time. MoCo has one of the strictest anti-sprawl, pro-density, pro-open space laws in the country, perhaps the strictest, and almost half of the county (nearly 300 sq. miles) is zoned agriculture/open space.

    It worked in a way, the inner part of the county towards DC is quite dense (there are over a million people in the county) and there are still a lot of working farms in the outer half of the county. But all it really did was create a doughnut effect and push sprawl further out into the next counties, where the people drive through farmland on their way home to their exurbs in the boonies. So I don't know what the answer is but that doesn't seem to be it.

  6. #10256
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    Apr 2004
    Location
    Southeast New York
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    7,896
    It's kind of the same in Westchester County (NY). The lower half is dense, sometimes urban and sometimes suburban and as you go further out it opens up and the border towns have as much open space with farms and horse farms as suburban zones. I live in the next county and while we have a nice mix of open/farms/reservoir areas the towns are mostly bedroom communities but the tight areas are pretty small.

  7. #10257
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    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    I talked to my astrophysicist turned real estate data scientist college roommate today. He works for a multibillion dollar tech company running a team that forecasts real estate trends. He/ his company are predicting major fallout in 2022 with a SHTF scenario in 2024. He says it largely depends on what legislation passes between now and then for how far the can gets kicked down the road, but that low rates are going to drive the bubble up until foreclosures hit the market en masse to increase supply.

    Also of note, eviction moratoriums without mortgage relief for landlords will lead to hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of mom and pop landlords going bust. Seems like the plan is to allow/encourage that to happen so that large corporate RE investors and REITs can corner large swaths of the residential RE market across the country.

  8. #10258
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    Oct 2009
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    seatown
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    gross but seems feasible

    i just moved back to my hometown. full time wfh for big corp. wife and i took over the lower half of a 5/3 walkout with pool on 2 acres that is miles too much for her gma solo at 85. im a statistic.

  9. #10259
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    Sep 2009
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    PNW
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    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    gross but seems feasible

    i just moved back to my hometown. full time wfh for big corp. wife and i took over the lower half of a 5/3 walkout with pool on 2 acres that is miles too much for her gma solo at 85. im a statistic.
    wut

    good for you guys. may I visit when the vax is ready?
    life ain't guaranteed, love your people while you can

  10. #10260
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    Dec 2016
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    1,906
    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    gross but seems feasible

    i just moved back to my hometown. full time wfh for big corp. wife and i took over the lower half of a 5/3 walkout with pool on 2 acres that is miles too much for her gma solo at 85. im a statistic.
    Congrats, sounds like a score and gma is probably delighted. Hope to see you two around still.

  11. #10261
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    Nov 2006
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    NCW
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    2,745
    Sound like time for a BBI Panhandle

  12. #10262
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    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
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    2,810
    House in town went on market in 2011 for $8.4 million. Sold this month for $3.6. That's gonna work the pocket book.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  13. #10263
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    4,457
    Need to hire more people. Has to be someone looking for a job?

    https://www.yahoo.com/entry/lenders-...b68d1b09cab912

    Mortgage rates hit a new low last week, the average 30-year fixed rate hit 2.86% for the week ending September 4. It’s the ninth time mortgage rates set a record low this year — and some experts think it won’t be the last time.

    But rates are not as low as borrowers might expect because overworked lenders are keeping mortgage rates higher to try to slow the onslaught of mortgage and refinance applications, according to experts. Once lenders catch up, mortgage rates are expected to fall further.

    “It’s not that they [lenders] don’t want to drop rates. It’s that they don’t have the capacity to fulfill that mortgage request right now, on the refis [refinance applications] especially,” Jeff Taylor, managing partner at Digital Risk, a Florida-based financial mortgage analytics company, told Yahoo Finance The Final Round.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  14. #10264
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Where the diamonds turn to coal
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    6,994
    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    You mean like a global pandemic? Be patient.
    Real estate prices will not drop significantly, and are going to continue this frenzied upward trend. The people driving this are making money hand over fist. We are witnessing the rapid creation of a permanent underclass in this country who will never have any hope of owning any kind of real property. It makes me sick.
    I remember a bottomless freedom...

  15. #10265
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    Dec 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    I lived in Montgomery County, Maryland for a very long time. MoCo has one of the strictest anti-sprawl, pro-density, pro-open space laws in the country, perhaps the strictest, and almost half of the county (nearly 300 sq. miles) is zoned agriculture/open space.

    It worked in a way, the inner part of the county towards DC is quite dense (there are over a million people in the county) and there are still a lot of working farms in the outer half of the county. But all it really did was create a doughnut effect and push sprawl further out into the next counties, where the people drive through farmland on their way home to their exurbs in the boonies. So I don't know what the answer is but that doesn't seem to be it.
    There was a 1hr show on Discovery, or one of those channels this weekend, where the forensic scientists dug into the ötzi story. They believe he lived in a village in the valley near where he was found based on pollen samples. He was fairly wealthy as he had a copper axe and a well stitched fur jacket. They know from excavations that typical houses were raised off the ground on posts and people lived inside with their goats and sheep. He may have had a fight with someone and high tailed it into the mountains after which he was fatally shot near where he ended up by an arrow from at least 100+ ft away.

    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Real estate prices will not drop significantly, and are going to continue this frenzied upward trend. The people driving this are making money hand over fist. We are witnessing the rapid creation of a permanent underclass in this country who will never have any hope of owning any kind of real property. It makes me sick.
    Pro tip: Upstate NY you can still find very affordable housing. You want to live in an area where everyone else wants to live you gotta pay up, buttercup.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  16. #10266
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    May 2007
    Location
    Sandy, Utah
    Posts
    12,506
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Need to hire more people. Has to be someone looking for a job?

    https://www.yahoo.com/entry/lenders-...b68d1b09cab912

    Mortgage rates hit a new low last week, the average 30-year fixed rate hit 2.86% for the week ending September 4. It’s the ninth time mortgage rates set a record low this year — and some experts think it won’t be the last time.

    But rates are not as low as borrowers might expect because overworked lenders are keeping mortgage rates higher to try to slow the onslaught of mortgage and refinance applications, according to experts. Once lenders catch up, mortgage rates are expected to fall further.

    “It’s not that they [lenders] don’t want to drop rates. It’s that they don’t have the capacity to fulfill that mortgage request right now, on the refis [refinance applications] especially,” Jeff Taylor, managing partner at Digital Risk, a Florida-based financial mortgage analytics company, told Yahoo Finance The Final Round.
    I'm not getting 2.86%, but doing much better than my current. Refi in process.
    http://www.firsttracksonline.com

    I wish i could be like SkiFishBum

  17. #10267
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Beaverton, OR
    Posts
    456
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Real estate prices will not drop significantly, and are going to continue this frenzied upward trend. The people driving this are making money hand over fist. We are witnessing the rapid creation of a permanent underclass in this country who will never have any hope of owning any kind of real property. It makes me sick.
    "BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER"...lol..AGAIN....

  18. #10268
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Keep Tacoma Feared
    Posts
    1,589
    I know we are all shocked that real estate prices continue to climb and stay high, but I just don't see this continuing indefinitely. Government budgets are getting slaughtered by declining tax revenue. Unlike the federal government, which gets to play with funny money, cities and counties must have a balanced budget. Cuts will need to be made to the public sector. That will have an effect on the private sector, and down everything goes.

  19. #10269
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    Aug 2006
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    6,123
    I gotta give Benny credit, 10 years ago he compared us to Japan, and at least in terms of housing, he was spot on.

    Within a decade we will see mortgage rates in the 1's, if not below. My house will be worth at least a mill at that point.

    Currently you can get a mortgage in Japan for .53%.
    Live Free or Die

  20. #10270
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    Sep 2006
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    4,457
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I gotta give Benny credit, 10 years ago he compared us to Japan, and at least in terms of housing, he was spot on.

    Within a decade we will see mortgage rates in the 1's, if not below. My house will be worth at least a mill at that point.

    Currently you can get a mortgage in Japan for .53%.
    Damn, that's incredible. But it does seem like interest rates have no room to go up with the tens of trillions in debt the USA has no hope of ever paying back, let alone slowing the increasing national debt.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  21. #10271
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    Dec 2009
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    The Mayonnaisium
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    7,935
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I talked to my astrophysicist turned real estate data scientist college roommate today. He works for a multibillion dollar tech company running a team that forecasts real estate trends. He/ his company are predicting major fallout in 2022 with a SHTF scenario in 2024. He says it largely depends on what legislation passes between now and then for how far the can gets kicked down the road, but that low rates are going to drive the bubble up until foreclosures hit the market en masse to increase supply.
    Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?

  22. #10272
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    Apr 2006
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    Movin' On
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?
    College roommate is focused entirely on residential. Yes, legislation regarding forbearance programs and eviction moratoriums.

  23. #10273
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    Jan 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
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    1,598
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    Commercial or residential? Legislation regarding what; eviction moratoriums?
    Probably monetary policy as well. Residential real estate is more or less debt fueled consumption rather than production. While the interest rates are low the bubble will keep inflating until the drag created by the debt exceeds any productivity gains realized as part of the transaction.

  24. #10274
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    468
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    Real estate prices will not drop significantly, and are going to continue this frenzied upward trend. The people driving this are making money hand over fist. We are witnessing the rapid creation of a permanent underclass in this country who will never have any hope of owning any kind of real property. It makes me sick.
    I hate to agree, but this is my take as well, and I too am physically ill over it.

  25. #10275
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    Oct 2015
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    1,530
    Quote Originally Posted by NWFlow View Post
    I hate to agree, but this is my take as well, and I too am physically ill over it.
    I too am really concerned about this. Also from an employment standpoint.

    I just can't figure out if it means that I should get in now so I can own something or wait so I can get it cheap. My time horizon is only like 4 years before needing to sell and move again so normally I would just rent and stockpile cash.

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