Real Estate Crash thread

[dunfree]

Current status in the mountains of CO:
https://coloradosun.com/2020/07/27/u...ol-enrollment/



I give most of these folks one winter in the mountains. Although, it has become much more accommodating here in the past few years. You can now live in a cute little mountain town and still have access to big box stores and all the creature comforts of a city just a short drive down valley.

If this sticks long term, it should be interesting to see the effects on the local economy, maybe shift it from being so reliant on tourism? Who knows...

They are tourists on a longer time scale.

wonder how many read/post(ed) here.

[fastfred]

same shit different year is how explain how business is doing
there will always be punters there will always be gapers
the people who can afford to chase after there dreams will try
they will expect to be able to buy into mountain town society just like they have bought into everything in there life
they flash money around and new gear only to fail to realize bobby with his rusty four runner has a couple more million in the bank than they ever will
the only problem is no one gives a fuck and they get upset
then some one else comes and takes there place and the cycle gets repeated over and over again

[Name Redacted]

I knew a dentist that skinned up Keystone in her fancy new AT setup right outside her fancy new condo. Wondered why it was so hard. Heels were locked the whole way up.

[Benny Profane]

same shit different year is how explain how business is doing
there will always be punters there will always be gapers
the people who can afford to chase after there dreams will try
they will expect to be able to buy into mountain town society just like they have bought into everything in there life
they flash money around and new gear only to fail to realize bobby with his rusty four runner has a couple more million in the bank than they ever will
the only problem is no one gives a fuck and they get upset
then some one else comes and takes there place and the cycle gets repeated over and over again

Yeah, but, there's no skiing.

[Toadman]

I priced new build in a small NorCal town and would have been underwater 25% vs exisiting.

Ouch! A bit different here in Bend. Could make about 10%, a little more if you go the FSBO route.

[shroom]

i’m moving in sept and think i have convinced myself to wait on buying through 2020, but fuck, this is a rough time to be forecasting

[liv2ski]

20% haircut? No way. I do however not see much room to grow. Why?

1) loans aren't given out to just anyone with a pulse

2) price out a new construction build and see if you think there is 20% on the bone there. In most places with any semblance of a job market there isn't.

3) even with cheap money 3-500k is about the max a working family can afford, so there are only so many rich fucks willing to overpay. Hence the limit on appreciation.

If this many renters are fucked, there are a bunch of foreclosures on the horizon from people that lost their jobs. I am waiting for my neighbor the United pilot to put his home on the market.

[Benny Profane]

Right. Wait six months. We're Wiley Coyote in mid air.

[Core Shot]

Right. Wait six months. We're Wiley Coyote in mid air.

Opposite.
Work from home is here to stay.
Cities are dumpster fires.

Plus at some point, when you go full Zimbabwe printing press, every hard asset goes up in value.

[dunfree]

Opposite.
Work from home is here to stay.
Cities are dumpster fires.

Plus at some point, when you go full Zimbabwe printing press, every hard asset goes up in value.

Gotta be a good day for the tgnar slumlords

[yeahman]

Right. Wait six months. We're Wiley Coyote in mid air.

Wile E. Coyote. Come on man.

[RoooR]

Love how this thread is filled with people 100% sure that we're headed for inflation / deflation. When you have simultaneous demand and supply shocks the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. Sure the fed is printing like crazy. But most money isn't created by the fed. The other side of that coin is money destruction from debt defaults and pay offs. If you think you KNOW whats going to happen then the only thing that's certain is that you're not reading enough.

[4matic]

Unlike the GFC this crisis has created money supply and velocity largely because of the changes at consumer level and direct stimulus. Long term affect still unclear though.

[Toadman]

Love how this thread is filled with people 100% sure that we're headed for inflation / deflation. When you have simultaneous demand and supply shocks the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. Sure the fed is printing like crazy. But most money isn't created by the fed. The other side of that coin is money destruction from debt defaults and pay offs. If you think you KNOW whats going to happen then the only thing that's certain is that you're not reading enough.

Sounds like you have all it figured out. Cool.

[Benny Profane]

I'm guessing that without the 600 dollar UE supplement, the eviction/foreclosure activity will explode. That's a mortgage for tens of millions.

[glademaster]

I think you're overestimating how many of the recently unemployed own homes. It's going to be interesting to see what plays out over the next 6-12 months. A significant slowdown in RE wouldn't surprise me, but neither would continued price increases and low inventory.

[Ted Striker]

Agree. The next few years will be a story of the haves and the have-nots.

[glademaster]

I've been waiting for things to cool off around here for three years. I have two promising relocation prospects I'm pursuing, but if neither of them pan out, I'm going to start looking seriously in my area in the coming months.

[sirbumpsalot]

Stock Market gains could be fueling and continue to fuel RE like it did back in 1999 and post bubble crash. I have two friends with huge TESLA and SEMI stock gains that have both coincidentally gone under contract as first time home owners. Using this as not just a new wealth lifestyle, but a diversification to a hard asset. Neither is a youngster....just single guys that goofed off for most of their lives and got their shiite together in the last 5yrs....both indicated for years they would never buy into this inflated housing market.

Just another angle.

[Toadman]

I'm curious to see how mass evictions take place? Will plain clothes LEO's show up in unmarked cars, bum rush the house, grab the squatters and throw them out? It seems to me, that if there are millions requiring eviction, that it will be a logistical nightmare to evict so many people. They aren't just going to leave willingly once they receive an eviction notice.

Then who is going to rent those apartments/condos, etc.?

[XXX-er]

Love how this thread is filled with people 100% sure that we're headed for inflation / deflation. When you have simultaneous demand and supply shocks the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. Sure the fed is printing like crazy. But most money isn't created by the fed. The other side of that coin is money destruction from debt defaults and pay offs. If you think you KNOW whats going to happen then the only thing that's certain is that you're not reading enough.

I aced it by selling my house at the peak 3 weeks before a crash

move to the mountains for ski paddle smoke dope drink beer and chase tail,

then I leave all the $ in cash cuz i forgot to re-invest it

which ^^ sounds really dumb but it meant I was all in cash when the stock market crashed

It made me look like a fucking genius

but we all know better

so the take away

timing markets can be just that arbitrary

[Ted Striker]

I'm curious to see how mass evictions take place? Will plain clothes LEO's show up in unmarked cars, bum rush the house, grab the squatters and throw them out?

They'll deputize private citizens that have marginally similar experience like meter maids and mall cops. The real Johnny Laws will still be at the donut shop - that is when they aren't shooting people.

[Benny Profane]

Stock Market gains could be fueling and continue to fuel RE like it did back in 1999 and post bubble crash. I have two friends with huge TESLA and SEMI stock gains that have both coincidentally gone under contract as first time home owners. Using this as not just a new wealth lifestyle, but a diversification to a hard asset. Neither is a youngster....just single guys that goofed off for most of their lives and got their shiite together in the last 5yrs....both indicated for years they would never buy into this inflated housing market.

Just another angle.

So they bought Tesla?

Really, dude, bottom line, how many individuals out there actually profited from the Tesla run up? Enough to effect the housing market? Take out Tesla and Amazon and a few others, and the market is flat.

[Toadman]

They'll deputize private citizens that have marginally similar experience like meter maids and mall cops. The real Johnny Laws will still be at the donut shop - that is when they aren't shooting people.

Could be rather ironic. Hire some unemployed person to evict themselves. Might work.

[Toadman]

Meanwhile there's real tragedy going on in Tahoe...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...id=mailsignout

Lake Tahoe real estate is getting snapped up at a record pace, as San Francisco tech workers flee the city in search of more space and a healthier lifestyle.
Brokers say the inventory of homes for sale has shrunk to about one-fifth to one-tenth of usual levels.
"People are writing all-cash offers for houses, sight-unseen," said Sabrina Belleci, a Lake Tahoe broker with Re/Max.

One property recently came on the market priced at $1.65 million. Located in downtown Truckee, California, on the Truckee River, it went into contract less than 24-hours later and closed for $2 million.