Real Estate Crash thread

[gretch6364]

Denver is pretty friendly when it comes to fighting the valuations...give it a try and do it in a nice way, and they will meet you somewhere in the middle...at least they did for our loft.

Increases in property taxes are needed to complete the gentrification process...gotta make it so the poor can't afford their taxes and are forced to foreclose and move out of the city

[4matic]

Thank baby jeezuz for Prop 13. In the 30 years I have lived in my home, my property taxes have increased about $1k per year, but my value has gone up at least seven fold. I am just waiting for the politicians to try and cancel Prop 13 out, as they need to spend moar on shit like high speed rail to Fresno or is it Bakersfield? Fucking idiots.

The mobility rate continues to expand and the tax burden shifted unfairly to the first time buyer. I certainly like the advantage but it is unfair. I think a statewide prop 90 law would also be a good thing.

[liv2ski]

50% increase equates to about a $1100 increase. You pay 30k/yr in taxes?

Sorry I was not clear. My property taxes started at $2k per year and are up to $3k per year 30 years later. Bought the house for $180k and current comps are $1.5M easy. Fuck ya Prop 13.

[Missing Sock]

Denver is pretty friendly when it comes to fighting the valuations...give it a try and do it in a nice way, and they will meet you somewhere in the middle...at least they did for our loft.

Increases in property taxes are needed to complete the gentrification process...gotta make it so the poor can't afford their taxes and are forced to foreclose and move out of the city

Also found this to be true. Successfully fought my valuation on a Denver loft/condo last go around.

All being said property taxes seem very reasonable in Denver vs. most other places I have lived.

[Pow4Brains]

All being said property taxes seem very reasonable in Denver vs. most other places I have lived.

Hence the reason the schools suck ballz.

[Danno]

Hence the reason the schools suck ballz.

eh, Boulder's taxes are pretty low too, and the schools here are excellent.

[Pow4Brains]

eh, Boulder's taxes are pretty low too, and the schools here are excellent.

Yes Boulder has higher property values that increases the revenue for schools. "Excellent" from what account? CO is the ~48th least funded state in the union as far as public schools.

They don't get a mention per The Post: http://blogs.denverpost.com/colorado...c-school/4273/

It does appear they send some time on K-8 category though: http://www.coloradoschoolgrades.com/...boulder&st=0#c

But I guess those reviews weren't written by the Daily Camera so they must be biased.

[huckbucket]

Sorry I was not clear. My property taxes started at $2k per year and are up to $3k per year 30 years later. Bought the house for $180k and current comps are $1.5M easy. Fuck ya Prop 13.

I would be so fucking gone at that valuation. Like winning the lottery.

[mcsquared]

I would be so fucking gone at that valuation. Like winning the lottery.

Sounds good, and there are a bunch of variables in play, but it doesn't beat the return on plunking down 180k on the S&P500 30 years ago.

[Shredhead]

Sounds good, and there are a bunch of variables in play, but it doesn't beat the return on plunking down 180k on the S&P500 30 years ago.

Tuff to live in a portfolio and thirty years of rent would really put a damper on that return.

[mcsquared]

Tuff to live in a portfolio and thirty years of rent would really put a damper on that return.

And the gains from the house are mostly tax free and you can deduct the interest and blah, blah, blah. That is why I said there are lots of variables to consider. Just pointing out that that gain isn't really anything spectacular.

[liv2ski]

And the gains from the house are mostly tax free and you can deduct the interest and blah, blah, blah. That is why I said there are lots of variables to consider. Just pointing out that that gain isn't really anything spectacular.

Actually, it is a nice gain on the 10%-20% most people put down on a property. Likely over 10% which is tough to match over the last 30 years.

[Danno]

Yes Boulder has higher property values that increases the revenue for schools. "Excellent" from what account? CO is the ~48th least funded state in the union as far as public schools.

They don't get a mention per The Post: http://blogs.denverpost.com/colorado...c-school/4273/

It does appear they send some time on K-8 category though: http://www.coloradoschoolgrades.com/...boulder&st=0#c

But I guess those reviews weren't written by the Daily Camera so they must be biased.

Property values are higher, but taxes seem relatively low to me. A $400k house pays about $2500 in taxes. That tax bill seems reasonable to me, period, from what I have seen of other places, even those with much lower property values. But I don't live in other places, so I don't know. My point was only that I don't think the quality of schools is solely based on property taxes collected per pupil, but maybe I'm wrong on that, maybe there is a direct correlation with very little deviation. :shrug:

As for the schools here, Boulder Valley School District is widely recognized as excellent; I don't think anyone in Colorado who knows the school districts would disagree. Ranking schools is tricky business. How do you rank an elementary school? As you note, Boulder has a bunch of the top ranked ones, but how do you evaluate the quality of care and education? Test scores alone don't do it. For ex, Creekside Elementary ranks lower than many other elementary schools in Boulder, but I've been told that the primary reason for that is a much higher percentage of ESL students, so its scores are lower. So, does it deserve that lower rating? Maybe, maybe not, because if your kid is a high achiever, s/he may get lost in a school like that and not be challenged, whereas a more middle of the road kid (we can't all have high achievers) might actually get a better overall education due to the diversity. I do know that the lower ranking does NOT mean that the quality of the teachers is lower.

As for high schools, your rank shows them lower, but # 1 and #3 on this list are BVSD schools: http://www.usnews.com/education/best...ngs?int=9a7a08 But again, rankings are tricky. I have been told that Fairview is great if your kid is a high achiever and all AP everything. But Boulder High, not even ranked on my link, is supposedly a much better place if your kid isn't AP everything, because it's a better place to find your niche and receive support there. Is Fairview a "better" school than Boulder High? I think the only answer is "it depends". And again, I have never heard anyone say that the teachers at Fairview are better.

Bottom line is that when it comes to primary and secondary schools, I think testing metrics and rankings are not the best or only way to determine quality. Boulder schools are excellent, and anyone in the area who knows schools would agree with that. One telling non-stat: we have very few private schools here, which seems a little odd in a place that is pretty wealthy.

But honestly, if you want to think I'm making all of this up, and your website is the final metric of the quality of the schools here, that's your prerogative. Lord knows you wouldn't be the first person to judge Boulder from afar.

[mcsquared]

Actually, it is a nice gain on the 10%-20% most people put down on a property. Likely over 10% which is tough to match over the last 30 years.

Not really trying to argue with you because it is a fairly decent return. But if I had invested 18k in Apple 30 years ago how much would I have now? Probably a shit ton more. Your property is an outlier. So is Apple. That is my only point.

[Pow4Brains]

Property values are higher, but taxes seem relatively low to me. A $400k house pays about $2500 in taxes. That tax bill seems reasonable to me, period, from what I have seen of other places, even those with much lower property values. But I don't live in other places, so I don't know. My point was only that I don't think the quality of schools is solely based on property taxes collected per pupil, but maybe I'm wrong on that, maybe there is a direct correlation with very little deviation. :shrug:

As for the schools here, Boulder Valley School District is widely recognized as excellent; I don't think anyone in Colorado who knows the school districts would disagree. Ranking schools is tricky business. How do you rank an elementary school? As you note, Boulder has a bunch of the top ranked ones, but how do you evaluate the quality of care and education? Test scores alone don't do it. For ex, Creekside Elementary ranks lower than many other elementary schools in Boulder, but I've been told that the primary reason for that is a much higher percentage of ESL students, so its scores are lower. So, does it deserve that lower rating? Maybe, maybe not, because if your kid is a high achiever, s/he may get lost in a school like that and not be challenged, whereas a more middle of the road kid (we can't all have high achievers) might actually get a better overall education due to the diversity. I do know that the lower ranking does NOT mean that the quality of the teachers is lower.

As for high schools, your rank shows them lower, but # 1 and #3 on this list are BVSD schools: http://www.usnews.com/education/best...ngs?int=9a7a08 But again, rankings are tricky. I have been told that Fairview is great if your kid is a high achiever and all AP everything. But Boulder High, not even ranked on my link, is supposedly a much better place if your kid isn't AP everything, because it's a better place to find your niche and receive support there. Is Fairview a "better" school than Boulder High? I think the only answer is "it depends". And again, I have never heard anyone say that the teachers at Fairview are better.

Bottom line is that when it comes to primary and secondary schools, I think testing metrics and rankings are not the best or only way to determine quality. Boulder schools are excellent, and anyone in the area who knows schools would agree with that. One telling non-stat: we have very few private schools here, which seems a little odd in a place that is pretty wealthy.

But honestly, if you want to think I'm making all of this up, and your website is the final metric of the quality of the schools here, that's your prerogative. Lord knows you wouldn't be the first person to judge Boulder from afar.

I don't really care abut Boulder as it is not a good representation of the State. Everyone knows you're "special", and that's cool. And I'm sure US News has a better grasp on the school systems than the Colorado Department of Education.

[sherpahigh]

Seems to me that Calgary's poised to lose 30-40% on house prices. We're currently looking for more space and trying to figure out the best plan of attack. We bought right before the market exploded here back in '04 and our house is now valued at over double what we paid. Doesn't matter cause it's not sold, but that's what the current listings are. So I'd love to sell right now, wait it out a few months squatting at the in-laws or renting maybe and then buy in after the carnage but god damn that seems like a huge fucking hassle with 3 kids and a live in nanny to deal with. I'm never going to move again if I make it through this process in tact.

So this was back in April and we just sold last night for over our asking price with competing offers after having the place on the market for 3 whole days. Unreal. Still have conditions but should all be good and buyers definite want it so pretty pleased selling it for over double what we paid 10 years ago. Managed to get a new place locked down last week as well that's a relatively great deal as well. The sellers fucked up on their end and listed way too high initially and the place just sat there. We came in after a few price drops and ended up getting the place for 25% lower than their initial list price. So all in all, pretty happy with things. Just have to check off the conditions and we'll be done with this big bag of fucking stress. Holy shit what a fucking ride the last month or so has been getting our place prepped for listing. Never again.

I fully expect that the market will fall further from here in the next few months but we're in for the long haul with this place for 10-15 years so, not too worried about it. Real Estate's a god damn wild ride.

[4matic]

So this was back in April and we just sold last night for over our asking price with competing offers after having the place on the market for 3 whole days. Unreal. .

Post pictures of the properties.

Well done. Takes courage.

Post war crap shacks are going crazy in my hood. $50k over ask. Ready to sell but not prepared. Maybe do a Zillow "make me move" this fall.

[sherpahigh]

Post pictures of the properties.

Well done. Takes courage.

Post war crap shacks are going crazy in my hood. $50k over ask. Ready to sell but not prepared. Maybe do a Zillow "make me move" this fall.

Alberta's a weird market right now for sure. We didn't get near $50K over ask that seems insane; but over none the less. The neighbourhood where I'm selling is very desirable for young families and things are moving quickly there still. Surrounding areas not as much and some of the properties in the range we are/were looking are sitting on the market for long periods. Hopefully have these deals closed up on Tuesday by the looks of everything now. Pretty excited about the deal we got on both the sell and the buy here so hopeful there are no hiccups.

Place we're selling:
BR: 3up, 1 down; 3 1/2 bath




Buying:
BR: 4up 1 down; 3 1/2 bath

[4matic]

Selling:

Buying:

Sweet!

New house is nice. Solid hardwood? That floor looks great.

Sell side is nice too. Good taste in color and the screen on the porch fence is a very nice touch.

[sherpahigh]

Sweet!

New house is nice. Solid hardwood? That floor looks great.

Sell side is nice too. Good taste in color and the screen on the porch fence is a very nice touch.

Thanks!

Solid walnut hardwood, Granite, custom roll-out, soft close cabinets, new triple pane low e windows... whole nine. They went all out on the reno and it's in phenomenal shape. Seller got caught out in a bad spot and we got a sweet deal with the appraisal coming in well over purchase price. Feel like we pulled off some big heist really.

Our place has never looked better just finished the deck myself with custom panels and skirting, etc. I make the perforated paneling here at work here so I used our place for some proto-type stuff and will do the same at the new place over the next year or two assuming it all comes together.

[jamesp]

Alberta's a weird market right now for sure. We didn't get near $50K over ask that seems insane; but over none the less. The neighbourhood where I'm selling is very desirable for young families and things are moving quickly there still. Surrounding areas not as much and some of the properties in the range we are/were looking are sitting on the market for long periods. Hopefully have these deals closed up on Tuesday by the looks of everything now. Pretty excited about the deal we got on both the sell and the buy here so hopeful there are no hiccups.

it seems that AB (& Calgary) prices haven't dropped much yet since the oil price fell, which seems weird. Out my way, contractors seem busier than the last few years, mostly building AB's vacation homes.

[Kevo]

Serious question- would any of you guys been able to predict the asset bubble of 06-07? Low interest rates= high asset prices. Seems to be happening all over again in CA and the US.

On another note- I'm still thinking about buying in Golden, CO.

[sherpahigh]

it seems that AB (& Calgary) prices haven't dropped much yet since the oil price fell, which seems weird. Out my way, contractors seem busier than the last few years, mostly building AB's vacation homes.

Where in the valley are you? My folks have a place out near Windermere and there's a place below theirs on the lake that just sold for 1.5M. A shit ton of money for a second home and the place isn't very big or super fancy or anything. Seems wild to me and I fully expect that the market here in Calgary will turn down further in the near future. I feel OK with our new place as we're looking to stay for a min. of 10 years, probably closer to 15 and we have plenty of room in the budget to allow for interest hikes, etc. So if the place drops from here then oh well.

I've been watching Calgary pretty closely though for the last year and we're definitely on the down slope but it's just got to fall further I would think.

[4matic]

Serious question- would any of you guys been able to predict the asset bubble of 06-07? Low interest rates= high asset prices. Seems to be happening all over again in CA and the US.
.

Financing is sounder this time around so there isn't as much risk. Still risky but less so.

[Kevo]

Financing is sounder this time around so there isn't as much risk. Still risky but less so.

Thanks. That's what I've been hearing.