Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

If not Zillow and Redfin, who?

Local agents like mine that charge 1% sell with 50% buyers rebate. They’re everywhere now. It’s buyers and seller that need to wake up.

[4matic]

I don’t think Zillow is evil. I use the app and website every day religiously/addictively. They should just stick with data and maybe create an online marketplace to perform transactions w/o an agent for less commission. They fucked up with just a shitty strategy getting over leveraged into a market it sounds like to me.

Used too. Now they drop photos just like realtor. I use Compass or Redfin. Redfin has better data imo

[wooley12]

I haven't been following like you. Seems to make a lot of statements of his opinion as fact. Did he say how all those homeowners SHOULD be living? Does he live in a house on it's own lot?

[schuss]

Dude has some interesting videos, but my feel is he doesn't get the money and other considerations to make much of this work. Like one of his is about self contained micro areas with basically no cars, but you have to meaningfully improve transit as not everyone works from home.

[Benny Profane]

This guy says no whoop.


https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/...of-the-closure

[Ski220]

Two observations:

The entire American economy is a Ponzi scheme.

I have relatives in Europe. The ones I stay in close
contact with are in France and the Netherlands live
in both major cities and suburbs.
The ones in major cities only use cars for extended
long distance trips where they need to bring stuff.
The ones living ‘out in the country’ ie. suburbs are
automobile dependent.

[californiagrown]

Who says you have to build housing for these people? Don't build it and they won't come. Or alternatively the uber liberals can just relax zoning codes and build up. It's not like Bellevue has enough skyscrapers yet. Developers wet dream building a few dozen 100 story condos on the shores of Lake WA. $$$$$

They will all live out in places like Black Diamond (https://www.courierherald.com/news/a...wn-4300-to-go/) and commute in making the traffic clusterfuck ever more clustered and fucked. We really do not have any kind of urban sprawl at all here in the puget sound compared to many (most?) large metro areas. People are always shocked how quickly it goes from metro to rural country here. PLENTY of room for suburban expansion east of lake washington.

[altasnob]

Not true at all. Because of urban growth boundaries, restrictions on development near streams and steep slopes, and lands that are already set aside for preservation, there is actually very little developable land left in King County, WA. It's build up, not out, whether you want it or not. And even in areas with developable land, the cost of construction (both supplies and labor) is not going down, making it more efficient to build dense urban housing rather than single family suburban sprawl. 50 years from now the single family home will be considered a luxury reserved for the wealthy. No one can stop this phenomenon from happening so get used to it.

[AdironRider]

Look at places like Texas that are booming and attracting the same crowds as California and Seattle. Texas is just one example that has the space to accommodate generations of new single family builds and will gladly take them.

Seattle is not that special. This idea that the only solution is building up not out or elsewhere has never been the reality. Why do you think the West was developed in the first place?

[Benny Profane]

Yeah. But it's Texas.

[Mazderati]

Why do you think the West was developed in the first place?

Manifest destiny.

[glademaster]

Not true at all. Because of urban growth boundaries, restrictions on development near streams and steep slopes, and lands that are already set aside for preservation, there is actually very little developable land left in King County, WA. It's build up, not out, whether you want it or not. And even in areas with developable land, the cost of construction (both supplies and labor) is not going down, making it more efficient to build dense urban housing rather than single family suburban sprawl. 50 years from now the single family home will be considered a luxury reserved for the wealthy. No one can stop this phenomenon from happening so get used to it.

Meh, I was an integral part of the "Rape of King County" and in my short time there saw hundreds of new single family homes and condos be built in one tiny corner of the place. Single family homes are a luxury, but it's important to keep in mind that many SFR's are now built at a density of 4-6 per acre. That isn't exactly the same as the suburban neighborhood in NJ where I grew up and homes were on 1.5-2.5 acre lots each. Even with SFR's, if you have 6 families per acre, that's some serious population density for a suburb/exurb.

[old_newguy]

Look at places like Texas that are booming and attracting the same crowds as California and Seattle. Texas is just one example that has the space to accommodate generations of new single family builds and will gladly take them.

Seattle is not that special. This idea that the only solution is building up not out or elsewhere has never been the reality. Why do you think the West was developed in the first place?

Do you think they can afford to pay for the long term maintenance of all the infrastructure they build to serve the low density?

Seattle can’t even adequately fund bridge maintenance.

[altasnob]

Look at places like Texas that are booming and attracting the same crowds as California and Seattle. Texas is just one example that has the space to accommodate generations of new single family builds and will gladly take them.

Seattle is not that special. This idea that the only solution is building up not out or elsewhere has never been the reality. Why do you think the West was developed in the first place?

Even Texas has regional development planning, and geographic restrictions like streams and flood plains. But even if you assume Texas has unlimited buildable land and a desire to fill it, economics will prevent them from fulfilling this goal. We can't keep building suburbs at the density that we have been building them (cost of construction and providing infrastructure is too high). This isn't a choice. The most sprawly, least dense countries on earth are USA, Canada, and Australia. Party's over.

Meh, I was an integral part of the "Rape of King County" and in my short time there saw hundreds of new single family homes and condos be built

Yes, but the supply of vacant lots in King County really is drying up. Pierce and Kitsap is where you will see more new home (on vacant lot) construction going forward.

I remember taking a 5am subway in Tokyo and seeing a bunch of snowboarders, fully suited up and ready to shred, jumping on the train to the mountain. Also spent a winter in Geneva, Switzerland and took numerous day trips to Chamonix and Verbier car free. Density has its perks.

[dunfree]

Look at places like Texas that are booming and attracting the same crowds as California and Seattle. Texas is just one example that has the space to accommodate generations of new single family builds and will gladly take them.

Seattle is not that special. This idea that the only solution is building up not out or elsewhere has never been the reality. Why do you think the West was developed in the first place?

that would be the Texas where people are buying tear downs to turn in to mansions, right? Clearly they are doing that because of all the empty land

Seattle has shitty suburban sprawl, it runs north south.

[Benny Profane]

Manifest destiny.

And gold.

[Falcon3]

Yeah. But it's Texas.

Get a high speed rail built to the Front Range resorts where all the Texans come ski anyway.

[Benny Profane]

Don't power it with electricity! Don't work too well in winter.

[Toadman]

Even Texas has regional development planning, and geographic restrictions like streams and flood plains. But even if you assume Texas has unlimited buildable land and a desire to fill it, economics will prevent them from fulfilling this goal. We can't keep building suburbs at the density that we have been building them (cost of construction and providing infrastructure is too high). This isn't a choice. The most sprawly, least dense countries on earth are USA, Canada, and Australia. Party's over.



Yes, but the supply of vacant lots in King County really is drying up. Pierce and Kitsap is where you will see more new home (on vacant lot) construction going forward.

I remember taking a 5am subway in Tokyo and seeing a bunch of snowboarders, fully suited up and ready to shred, jumping on the train to the mountain. Also spent a winter in Geneva, Switzerland and took numerous day trips to Chamonix and Verbier car free. Density has its perks.

I think what you meant to say was, efficient public transport that connects high density populations to the great outdoors has it's perks. But agree that it's nice to fly into a major Euro city like Munich, and then in a few hours be shredding in the Arlberg, and never have to take a personal vehicle to get there or to get around once there.

[dan_pdx]

When I lived in Sapporo, I could take a municipal bus up to a ski area - Bankei. It's not an amazing ski area, mind you, but hey...I got there on the bus. Really nice to have that option - the drive to ski in Portland has gotten old, but the transit options here suck.

[mcphee]

Ya’ll should read The Geography of Nowhere by James Howard Kunstler. Deals with our shift from previously coherent communities to our modern urban/suburban wastelands caused by car culture and the auto industry itself. Good read.


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[AdironRider]

Yeah fellas, only McMansions are being built in Texas.

I’ll repeat, Seattle, where it’s cloudy, depressing and rains all day is not special. People like single family housing for a myriad of reasons and there are vast swaths of the US that can provide that housing and will be glad to do so.

[dunfree]

Yeah fellas, only McMansions are being built in Texas.

I’ll repeat, Seattle, where it’s cloudy, depressing and rains all day is not special. People like single family housing for a myriad of reasons and there are vast swaths of the US that can provide that housing and will be glad to do so.

Troll harder before you dump your high real estate “special” place and downsize.

[SKIP IN7RO]

let's texas, amirite

[Conundrum]

let's texas, amirite

You shouldn’t mess with it.