Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

Probably at the Yellowstone club. My company execs had dual offices in Jackson Hole. Twin jets:

“Snowflake goes remote and relocates executive office from California to Bozeman, Montana”

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Good info on why this market is not like 2007 and why the "wait and see" buyers probably aren't gonna catch deals anytime soon. They will just end up paying more than if they purchase now. The rate of price increase will probably slow, but but that doesn't mean prices are going backwards. Especially for the kinds of houses people on a ski message board want to buy. The few deals that pop up will most likely be in crappy towns for crappy houses and won't help the highly qualified buyers of today looking for nicer houses in or near the growing hip towns.

[Mazderati]

The energy spent pitching prospective buyers on higher prices might be better spent convincing current owners to sell.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

The energy spent pitching prospective buyers on higher prices might be better spent convincing current owners to sell.

True, but you have to not only convince these people to sell (and make a boatload of money in the process) but you pretty much have to convince them to move somewhere that is not as great as where they live now. That being said it's happening.

I have a friend who is selling her house and moving from here to NC. She doesn't seem particularly excited about the move, but to be able to turn down several hundred thousand cash equity gained in just a few years well....can't blame them.

[skaredshtles]

True, but you have to not only convince these people to sell (and make a boatload of money in the process) but you pretty much have to convince them to move somewhere that is not as great as where they live now. That being said it's happening.

I have a friend who is selling her house and moving from here to NC. She doesn't seem particularly excited about the move, but to be able to turn down several hundred thousand cash equity gained in just a few years well....can't blame them.

NC? FTS.

[Greenstateofmind]

True, but you have to not only convince these people to sell (and make a boatload of money in the process) but you pretty much have to convince them to move somewhere that is not as great as where they live now. That being said it's happening.

I have a friend who is selling her house and moving from here to NC. She doesn't seem particularly excited about the move, but to be able to turn down several hundred thousand cash equity gained in just a few years well....can't blame them.

I mean this is the big picture in a nutshell no? A huge redistribution of wealth with the small guy getting crushed even more than before

[Kevo]

That snowflake headline is big news.

[4matic]

When commodity prices normalize new home builders will expand lot development where they have it. Supply will come when prices stabilize and time on market increases as pent up sellers fomo. Median price might continue to rise but bidding war froth will wane.

New home builders have to sell homes to satisfy Wall Street. The XHB was recently down 10% from its high.

[Name Redacted]

This shit is so weird.

[old_newguy]

That snowflake headline is big news.

?

[4matic]

That snowflake headline is big news.

He was already there. SEC required it but it does make a statement

[4matic]

Lumber futures tried to fill the gap and failed. It’s been up and down limit in the same day. That’s not extraordinary in thin futures. Lumber has backwardation of 30% less than a year out.

[Name Redacted]

I have a friend who is selling her house and moving from here to NC. She doesn't seem particularly excited about the move, but to be able to turn down several hundred thousand cash equity gained in just a few years well....can't blame them.

We have some neighbors who cashed out last year and moved to Asheville NC. Made a pretty good 50%+ profit on the house. Got there and realized that it sucked. So now they are trying to move back and can’t afford it.

[snowaddict91]

I recently joined an MTB/social facebook group here in Montrose to try and meet some new people. Almost everyone has the same story- moved within the last few years from (whatever ski town) because it's more affordable (sort of) and good enough. Guess I'm not the only one thinking that way.

[Iowagriz]

Missoula TV news last night. Median home prices in Missoula:
2001 - $138k
2011 - $205k
2020 - $350k
2021 - $420k (end of Q1)

[liv2ski]

We have some neighbors who cashed out last year and moved to Asheville NC. Made a pretty good 50%+ profit on the house. Got there and realized that it sucked. So now they are trying to move back and can’t afford it.

Same happened to a great client that moved to Florida from CA. It was cheaper for a reason you dolts.

[Ted Striker]

Remember the guy who bought the 1380 sq ft rancher that was listed at 710k for 822k and immediately put it back on the market for 895?

Well, I guess the market called his bluff. 100k price reduction.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15814976

[Name Redacted]

I recently joined an MTB/social facebook group here in Montrose to try and meet some new people. Almost everyone has the same story- moved within the last few years from (whatever ski town) because it's more affordable (sort of) and good enough. Guess I'm not the only one thinking that way.

It is the constant discussion around ski towns between locals right now. Where is the next great place to live? It has gotten kind of annoying. Really messes with your head.

House down the street sold for $125K over asking. Almost double what they paid just two years ago. WTF?

[Ted Striker]

We have some neighbors who cashed out last year and moved to Asheville NC. Made a pretty good 50%+ profit on the house. Got there and realized that it sucked. So now they are trying to move back and can’t afford it.

Change neighbors to relative, and Sarasota FL, and yeah, same story.

[skaredshtles]

Move shitty places... win shitty prizes?

[altasnob]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where the next great, cheap, hidden gem of a mountain town in upstate NY.

[Name Redacted]

I think we've finally gotten to the point where the next great, cheap, hidden gem of a mountain town in upstate NY.

So like, where is that really?

[AdironRider]

North Creek has been waiting for this moment for decades.

[concretejungle]

Move shitty places... win shitty prizes?

It's a good one every time. I do wonder why they think Summit County is better than Asheville but that's just for my own knowledge.

I think we've finally gotten to the point where the next great, cheap, hidden gem of a mountain town in upstate NY.

I was ahead of my time starting the thread to condense as much knowledge as possible about the next great mountain towns of Upstate NY. Given that there are 2000 non members (jfhc, bunch or pervs) lurking in the forums I do apologize to the current Upstate crew for ruining your home towns in ten or so years.

[CascadeLuke]

Remember the guy who bought the 1380 sq ft rancher that was listed at 710k for 822k and immediately put it back on the market for 895?

Well, I guess the market called his bluff. 100k price reduction.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15814976

Couldn’t see that coming. There are very few instances where, with all the data available, that a dolt would pull trigger on a brash flip such as that. Now that speculator is down 7-8% from his purchase price after factoring sale cost and excise tax. You go bro.
“But the market so hot right now!”