Real Estate Crash thread

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

seems perfect for the burgeoning serial killer

[skaredshtles]

seems perfect for the burgeoning serial killer

[Ted Striker]

This one hits the WTF mark for me.

No kitchen. Smallish lot. Just wow.

[AK47bp]

This one hits the WTF mark for me.

Assessed at $496k in 2022 and asking $799k in 2023. Lol.

I’ve seen this in my neighborhood when the prices were crazy, they just pick some crazy sale price and see if anyone bites.

[yeahman]

Somebody'll knock it down and put a skinny McMansion on that lot.

[CarlMega]

They're including that basement in the sq footage.

Lolz. That's great. No appliances, no problem!

I like that it has the server box fan pre-installed. WFH opportunities!

[AdironRider]

Assessed at $496k in 2022 and asking $799k in 2023. Lol.

I’ve seen this in my neighborhood when the prices were crazy, they just pick some crazy sale price and see if anyone bites.

Honestly, I think you are seeing delta's like this in any sort of desirable location. My town in NH has sale prices being about 75% above assessments across the board and the last appraisal was 21.

I don't know Bozeman super well, but isn't anything remotely decent at least a million there? I'm also a pretty big believer in buying the worst house in the best neighborhood, so maybe this is one of those deals?

[Flounder]

Assessed at $496k in 2022 and asking $799k in 2023.

Well it does have the original knob and tube wiring. That’s getting harder to find these days.

[concretejungle]

I know nothing about the Bozeman market outside of living here but a neighbors condo was listed and was pending one day later. Slightly above 600k. It’s nice but not that nice.


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[Dantheman]

Well it does have the original knob and tube wiring. That’s getting harder to find these days.

[byates1]

^lol!

[Harry]

Why are you posting pics of Whiteroom Guardian ?

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

lol

[dunfree]

Tweakers love knob and tube

[skaredshtles]

Why are you posting pics of Whiteroom Guardian ?

Heh. Beat me to it.

[Core Shot]

^lol!

lol

Lol

[Kevo]

Asking prices here in Driggs are up 50% in two years.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...94659882_zpid/

Mortgage rates two years ago- 2.625% APR
Mortgage rates today- 7.25% APR

Monthly Payments two years ago- $2400
Monthly payment today- $6486

Totally normal market behavior.

[zion zig zag]

Asking prices here in Driggs are up 50% in two years.

How much are they up in three years? AKA, pre-covid.

[AdironRider]

Teton Valley was on the upswing well before Covid ultimately. I looked at the house next door to that place in 2015 for 150k-ish, and passed because my commute to downtown Jackson would have sucked balls. This house was probably worth 200-250 about that time.

From 2015-2020 you probably saw 50-100k per year in appreciation depending on your location in the valley.

[neckdeep]

How much are they up in three years? AKA, pre-covid.

A bit under 100%. My mom bought a condo here in spring 2020 for $285K and by summer 2022 identical units were going for $550K.

Numerous units turned over and now the place is a bit of a ghost town. The new owners paid too much so now they need $3000-3500/mo or $250/night to cover costs. Doesn't seem to be working out for most of them.

Honestly, it feels like 2008 all over again. Outside money flooding the market looking for fast appreciation and a totally skewed real estate market about to fall off the cliff again.

As I've said before, supply and demand does not correlate with an organic demand for housing. Most of the supply and "demand" in Teton valley means a demand for lucrative, no-risk investments that outperform the stock market. Once the overnight riches stop, the demand falls off the cliff.

Around 25% of houses here are now STR. That's fucking retarded in a valley that sees 6 weeks of peak demand and 6 months of slow. I suspect the correction will be underway by the end of summer. Supposedly we're booming but tourism numbers are down 30% last year and the grocery store isn't too crowded with locals either. Last summer felt downright dead compared to the crazy of summer 2022. We'll see but I doubt it's a soft landing. We're so hopelessly addicted to development here that irrational optimism and willful blindness is a way of life.

[possum]

A bit under 100%. My mom bought a condo here in spring 2020 for $285K and by summer 2022 identical units were going for $550K.

Numerous units turned over and now the place is a bit of a ghost town. The new owners paid too much so now they need $3000-3500/mo or $250/night to cover costs. Doesn't seem to be working out for most of them.

Honestly, it feels like 2008 all over again. Outside money flooding the market looking for fast appreciation and a totally skewed real estate market about to fall off the cliff again.

As I've said before, supply and demand does not correlate with an organic demand for housing. Most of the supply and "demand" in Teton valley means a demand for lucrative, no-risk investments that outperform the stock market. Once the overnight riches stop, the demand falls off the cliff.

Around 25% of houses here are now STR. That's fucking retarded in a valley that sees 6 weeks of peak demand and 6 months of slow. I suspect the correction will be underway by the end of summer. Supposedly we're booming but tourism numbers are down 30% last year and the grocery store isn't too crowded with locals either. Last summer felt downright dead compared to the crazy of summer 2022. We'll see but I doubt it's a soft landing. We're so hopelessly addicted to development here that irrational optimism and willful blindness is a way of life.

Sounds like an opportunity

Grab some of that million dollar new construction for a fraction

[fastfred]

Taxes are the death blow

In Colorado the increases are oppressive

So high interest rates high maintenance costs on shit old houses and now crippling tax increases

[summit]

Taxes are the death blow

In Colorado the increases are oppressive

So high interest rates high maintenance costs on shit old houses and now crippling tax increases

Most of CO seeing 40-50% increases while the high country will see 50-70% tax increases. It is so bad that fire districts have actually pulled some mill levy increases off the ballot this coming cycle in Vail! That never happens. I have had my place less than 10 years and my taxes will be 4x what they were at purchase with only about half of that effect being valuation.

Oh those state measures unbalancing residential and commercial take ratios and all those local tax hikes don't look like such good ideas now right? The renters are laughing at the owners... until the rent hikes arrive to offset the taxes.

Don't worry, the governor is here to save us with his proposal that save folks $100 or $200 in taxes a year when most are seeing their tax bills rise by $1000-$4000. Seriously, he is gonna exempt $40k of value and cut the state levy 0.06% (1% of the rate) and calling it tax relief. What a fucking joke.

[rideit]

Our taxes are going up here in town, they were ~$2500 in 2013, up to about $10k next year.
The property is worth about 6 or 7 times what we paid, so whatevs. Would be difficult for an older person on a fixed income to swing though, so that’s pretty rough.

[panchosdad]

Asking prices here in Driggs are up 50% in two years.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...94659882_zpid/

Mortgage rates two years ago- 2.625% APR
Mortgage rates today- 7.25% APR

Monthly Payments two years ago- $2400
Monthly payment today- $6486

Totally normal market behavior.

Blast from the past! I built that house as a spec in 2009, figuring I was a contrarian genius. Ended up renting it until 2015 or so when I finally sold it for $275. Buyer sold a couple years ago, $650ish I think.