Real Estate Crash thread

[Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo]

the remodel was 6 years ago.

the separation and sale of the house was 18 months ago.

the move out of Boulder was 6 months ago.

the final divorce decree is (hopefully) next week.

Damn I must have missed something about the divorce, or maybe you just didn't mention it on here. Either way I'm sorry to hear about it, if the RFV ever corrects 10% we'll start sending you listings.

[Danno]

Damn I must have missed something about the divorce, or maybe you just didn't mention it on here. Either way I'm sorry to hear about it, if the RFV ever corrects 10% we'll start sending you listings.

I never mentioned it directly on here, this may actually be the first time that I have done so explicitly, though I have made some references. It's a good thing overall, though there were periods (mostly 18 months ago) that sucked a lot.

[Toadman]

I never mentioned it directly on here, this may actually be the first time that I have done so explicitly, though I have made some references. It's a good thing overall, though there were periods (mostly 18 months ago) that sucked a lot.

Nothing hopefully that some powder skiing can't heal.

[Danno]

Nothing hopefully that some powder skiing can't heal.

I skied more last winter than I had in any year since before I met my ex. So yes.

[lowsparkco]

Some of the price correction data is misleading, I’ve calculated some myself and there are a couple contributing factors. I worked in both southern and central Oregon during the last year, and the data is different in each and depending on price point.

A lot of inventory in Bend nearly doubled in a 24 month period from April 2020 to April 2022. Certainly there were a very small number of people that timed that perfectly and got in and out around that time frame. An average of recently closed properties are off 20% from peak market, which was a relatively small window. So, is perceived value down 20% from peak, or is it up 63% since April 2020? Both. Runaway appreciation made unsustainable gains that have evaporated. But, it’s hard to say that the sky is falling quite yet.

[summit]

This seems to fit here nicely

[Flyoverland Captive]

I’m listing my current place near Bend in a week or two; just had my offer accepted on a place in Redmond. Last time I took this risk, I had two houses for 2.75 years. I hate gambling, but here I am again. Wish me luck!

[lowsparkco]

I’m listing my current place near Bend in a week or two; just had my offer accepted on a place in Redmond. Last time I took this risk, I had two houses for 2.75 years. I hate gambling, but here I am again. Wish me luck!

It’s always scary. Best of luck! Is your purchase offer contingent on the sale of your other property?

Shoot me a PM with the address and I’ll keep an eye on it. I have a few buyers I’m representing in central Oregon at the moment.

[Flyoverland Captive]

PM sent.

[lowsparkco]

PM sent.

Got it and replied. Although for some reason it didn’t record a sent copy, so let me know if it doesn’t come through and I’ll resend.

Danno, I saw a couple things about you having shared custody of your daughter so I assumed you were separated. Good for you getting out and skiing. Healthy outlets are key for my mental health. I hope the decree provides closure.

[Flyoverland Captive]

Got it; thanks.

[Red7]

I think the most desirable locations will take the longest to drop (and won't drop as far) but I've yet to experience where the pendulum swings so fast, and so far to one side, without it swinging way back the other way at some point. America is filled with sheeple and so many don't have the discipline to not follow the heard when they see their neighbor get a new boat, RV, deck, car, 2nd home, etc (especially when the government was the one buying all the toys with their free handouts). Lumber shot up and has since crashed. Car prices shot up and are in the process of crashing (my wife and I had six cars in 2020 and sold 2 of them for more than we paid and are waiting for the right deals before repurchasing). 2023-2024 are going to be interesting to see how far the housing pendulum swings back. Pricing may be sticky in prime areas but as frothy as it got, I just don't see how the pendulum doesn't swing back, and if history is any indication, it usually overshoots people's expectations.

[liv2ski]

Disagree, as others have said, many areas are way up from April 2020 (not mine) and those areas will likely not come back to January 2020 levels unless there is mass unemployment.

[Percy Rideout]

This seems to fit here nicely

Lots of new COVID transplants in the RFV would take exception to this. 3+ years here and we still don't see them at community events.

[Toadman]

Disagree, as others have said, many areas are way up from April 2020 (not mine) and those areas will likely not come back to January 2020 levels unless there is mass unemployment.

I tend to agree. It would take a deep and lengthy recession for housing prices to collapse. And then who is buying? Maybe there will be some pain in the Silicon Valley area with all those tech layoffs.

[Skistack]

Sample size of one, but we bought our current home in 7/20 (Denver area).

We're currently up 26% from our purchase price, and down 12% from the peak (6/22).

[Mazderati]

NEW 19 HRS AGO

2,190 VIEWS

[fastfred]

What's considered desirable what isn't desirable? Osb is less than 12 bucks a sheet right now it'll go to 15 in May. Was selling for 80 a sheet over a year ago. Housing prices will adjust just like sheets of glue and chipped up wood parts that is highly toxic

[AdironRider]

My town has had one new listing come on the mls since Thanksgiving. One.

Small town NH with about 2000 units total but still, that is crazy low inventory. Naturally bidding war ensued and was under contract by noon same day. This is despite interest rates rising.

This is the future I think, at least for decent locales. Between everyone locking in mortgage rates we may never see again over the past two years, the lack of new builds due to nimbys, and overall population growth the supply side is going to keep prices super high in any decent market.

[Yukonrider]

I keep hearing this story repeated over and over but here are some numbers for those interested.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/02/wh...census-bureau/

[Garbowski]

I bet there are a lot of vacant beachfront places available cheap in February on airbnb.

[schuss]

My town has had one new listing come on the mls since Thanksgiving. One.

Small town NH with about 2000 units total but still, that is crazy low inventory. Naturally bidding war ensued and was under contract by noon same day. This is despite interest rates rising.

This is the future I think, at least for decent locales. Between everyone locking in mortgage rates we may never see again over the past two years, the lack of new builds due to nimbys, and overall population growth the supply side is going to keep prices super high in any decent market.

We just need more houses built. We're in the hole pretty hard and with WFH there's job capacity for areas that didn't have much going on previously.
However, without meaningful pushes from states (like you're seeing Mass doing and now this is coming out of CA - https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/...-zoning-powers ) the inventory is not going to get built.
That said, I'm also in a town of 2000 in NH and this is one of the major topics we're talking through in planning board as 2 acre zoned SFRs with the possibility of one small ADU ain't gonna cut it.

[Core Shot]

We don’t need more houses. We need more deed restricted apartment buildings and townhouses that can never go condo.
Worker housing. Please.

[schuss]

We don’t need more houses. We need more deed restricted apartment buildings and townhouses that can never go condo.
Worker housing. Please.

Actually agree on this. I should have said "more units"

[nickwm21]

…..just not in your neighborhood right……


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